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  • #750,781
  • Jan 27, 2013 3:19pm Jan 27, 2013 3:19pm
Currently the market is a few points lower after Wellington open ...

2013-01-28_22h09_ EURUSD _ min060 _ (5Dy) candlestick (Spezial).PNG (15.4 KB)

2013-01-28_22h09_ EURUSD _ min060 _ (5Dy) candlevolume (Spezial).PNG (15.6 KB)

Those who can read and even did understand what has been writen there might have been noticed that we are still holding some small restrunners short from 1.34710 ...

We can wait ...







;-|
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-01-28_22h09_ EURUSD _ min060 _ (5Dy) candlestick (Spezial).PNG Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-01-28_22h09_ EURUSD _ min060 _ (5Dy) candlevolume (Spezial).PNG Size: 16 KB
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #750,782
  • Jan 27, 2013 3:34pm Jan 27, 2013 3:34pm
Quoting Vachus
I was short and had a plan to short the area between 1.348X to 1.338X all the way to 1.30 , BUT : the price behaviour till now gives no confirmation for a short setup + this week is the LTRO payment and FOMC statement which is expected Uncle Ben will deliver Stimulus could see a pricing In all the way till 1.355 ..

Also something i have been watching for a while , is USDCHF - a bit midterm plan
yes bro i been watching her closely too if you add a falling tl from the high, and a fib in from the low, you will find pa retested the breached tl, and the 50 fib is there abouts too possible tusllling with pa a little stopping a precise retest, and over shooting the 50 fib just a little, ma,s there abouts also, so she could still do another retest of the present retest may suffice, I am bullish on swissy but waiting for confirmation, if the falling tl does hold my 1st bearish defence will be at the 50 fib and previous high
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  • #750,783
  • Jan 27, 2013 3:38pm Jan 27, 2013 3:38pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
yes bro i been watching her closely too if you add a falling tl from the high, and a fib in from the low, you will find pa retested the breached tl, and the 50 fib is there abouts too possible tusllling with pa a little stopping a precise retest, and over shooting the 50 fib just a little, ma,s there abouts also, so she could still do another retest of the present retest may suffice, I am bullish on swissy but waiting for confirmation, if the falling tl does hold my 1st bearish defence will be at the 50 fib and previous high
oops forgot chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swissy daily 28 1 2013.jpg Size: 111 KB
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  • #750,784
  • Jan 27, 2013 3:47pm Jan 27, 2013 3:47pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
oops forgot chart
Still shorting yen pairs and yuros just curious if you changes sides just would be hapy to know if you do it and become bit bullish
  • #750,785
  • Jan 27, 2013 3:49pm Jan 27, 2013 3:49pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
oops forgot chart
No worries , we kind of on the same page. If Swissy holds and keep dancing above 0.92 - by the time Euro starts its profit taking , Swissy will be shouting up ... for now, its fading the Bull on a shy ! I was noticing the pair behaviour during Euro's red candles , it was racing up !
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #750,786
  • Jan 27, 2013 4:20pm Jan 27, 2013 4:20pm
Quoting KillerWhale
It will not go beyond 1.3487 my friend, I'm very sorry to disappoint you.
But Europe is ONE BIG MESS with growing unemployment and economically going backwards.
How would that disappoint me?

Take another look at my chart and think about that again. Here is weekly instead of monthly

A break of 1.3487 doesn't mean its completely bullish and the bears are doomed.

In fact I would say we need to break it before bears come in stronger force.

This has room for higher before we see a 750+ pip retrace

This week needs to show large downside and have a monthly close below 1.3250 and then maybe I will agree with you on the no break of 1.3487

Just waiting for that monthly momentum to turn down with that hidden divergence then I can start agreeing with bears. It has been bullish since the monthly divergence at 1.204
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: quicksave102.jpg Size: 235 KB
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #750,787
  • Jan 27, 2013 4:22pm Jan 27, 2013 4:22pm
Quoting Vachus
No worries , we kind of on the same page. If Swissy holds and keep dancing above 0.92 - by the time Euro starts its profit taking , Swissy will be shouting up ... for now, its fading the Bull on a shy ! I was noticing the pair behaviour during Euro's red candles , it was racing up !
hm, youre half right, at least... let me look more
I'll shop after the drop
  • #750,788
  • Jan 27, 2013 4:30pm Jan 27, 2013 4:30pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
How would that disappoint me?

Take another look at my chart and think about that again. Here is weekly instead of monthly

A break of 1.3487 doesn't mean its completely bullish and the bears are doomed.

In fact I would say we need to break it before bears come in stronger force.

This has room for higher before we see a 750+ pip retrace

[color=blue][b][u]This week needs to show large downside and have a monthly close below 1.3250 and then maybe I will agree with you on...
Very clear mate , I have the exact same view with you. KW and Kiwitrada are both classic bearish traders and I respect that. Bear & Bull both can make money here however I am very careful with taking short positions with this cripple. Actually the pattern looks very similar to what we saw last year. I do expect to top before/close beginning May. Then we can see the bears taking control if conditions do not improve within EU.
  • #750,789
  • Jan 27, 2013 4:32pm Jan 27, 2013 4:32pm
Sniping on the sidelines..... when to pull the triggerr


783 and 513 are the levels to watch at the moment...
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  • #750,790
  • Jan 27, 2013 4:38pm Jan 27, 2013 4:38pm
Multi TFs Chart (m1 through h4)


looking to buy this dip...

3430/3415 i think will be the area i will long.

or a retest of 1.34 breakout zone

regardless ill wait for a h4 hidden div
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: quicksave103.jpg Size: 167 KB
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #750,791
  • Jan 27, 2013 4:39pm Jan 27, 2013 4:39pm
Quoting Vachus
No worries , we kind of on the same page. If Swissy holds and keep dancing above 0.92 - by the time Euro starts its profit taking , Swissy will be shouting up ... for now, its fading the Bull on a shy ! I was noticing the pair behaviour during Euro's red candles , it was racing up !
yup this is another daily same chart, but can see what is holding her for now, but the falling channel if she breaks out will become a bull flag, presently she started to print hh hl hh hl so a new high now she will run into 38fib, with good chance of reaction possibly back to retest the channel, if that holds, next fence will be 50 bib previous high

for me bro shes right now in no mans land, and I will be waiting for pa to show her hand, its all about trying to see the possabilities, beforehand, and wait for pa to present opportunities, all other ladies are building similar pa, so if one goes maybe two it will help confindence for entry and as Im looking at 4hr and daily, opportunies may not come until next months open, which is fine by me
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swissy daily 28th.jpg Size: 97 KB
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  • #750,792
  • Jan 27, 2013 4:40pm Jan 27, 2013 4:40pm
Quoting math_GB
Very clear mate , I have the exact same view with you. KW and Kiwitrada are both classic bearish traders and I respect that. Bear & Bull both can make money here however I am very careful with taking short positions with this cripple. Actually the pattern looks very similar to what we saw last year. I do expect to top before/close beginning May. Then we can see the bears taking control if conditions do not improve within EU.
I don't know what it means to be a classic bearish trader but there is always a bear going no matter what. This time its USD bear.. I would guess you are right, sometime in late spring or early summer we will see the EU bears emerge from hibernating

If easier to trade down moves, then just look at the USDX chart
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #750,793
  • Jan 27, 2013 4:42pm Jan 27, 2013 4:42pm
dont'know if a cheap yen and an eventualy cheap dollar go with EU unemployment...
There is a sick demand for the euro, from half of the world, which accumulates euroz as it was gold...

somebody will start a war, or the ECB will intervene....

but i'll trade what i see; this is highly bullish.
I'll shop after the drop
  • #750,794
  • Jan 27, 2013 4:52pm Jan 27, 2013 4:52pm
Quoting ingmarforex
Still shorting yen pairs and yuros just curious if you changes sides just would be hapy to know if you do it and become bit bullish
yep eu au kiwi cable and ej gj, bro my only focus is shorting opportunities, i am already short from above except yens prs, when pa offers opportunity I am normally ready, when there is no opportunity I go fishing, mean no offense but I quite enjoy when most here are eagar / heavy bullish, problem is Im looking at higher timeframes, a good short opportunity is 50 - 100+ pips, in that time there are ample long opportunies lower timeframes, sometimes this thread gets confused between different time frame strategies

I will know if i am successful. at months end -1week into feb, some have success in next 10 minutes / 1hr /2hr etc
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  • #750,795
  • Jan 27, 2013 4:54pm Jan 27, 2013 4:54pm
Quoting Willow
dont'know if a cheap yen and an eventualy cheap dollar go with EU unemployment...
There is a sick demand for the euro, from half of the world, which accumulates euroz as it was gold...

somebody will start a war, or the ECB will intervene....

but i'll trade what i see; this is highly bullish.
EJ could hit 135/140.

The best pair to buy the dips at this moment.

It's all about the break of 123.60 (or whatever the last high was to the pip)

If it pierces, it invalidates monthly hidden divergence, which will be extremely bullish.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: quicksave104.jpg Size: 165 KB
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #750,796
  • Jan 27, 2013 5:15pm Jan 27, 2013 5:15pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
EJ could hit 135/140.

The best pair to buy the dips at this moment.

It's all about the break of 123.60 (or whatever the last high was to the pip)

If it pierces, it invalidates monthly hidden divergence, which will be extremely bullish.
nice, but if monthly rsi is so high... not sure it will fly up there so soon...

anyway, how can you bring back home your own currency ?
1. you intervene and make it volatile to scare the bulls...
2. you devalue it in 3 steps; 1.35 > 1.30 > 1.25 , to make that half world release the euros [accumulated as gold] and buy your products

They painted a bullish chart but EU unemployment needs to IMPROVE a lot, right at the beginning of the spring, without late, or....

maybe EU can chew it, i don't know.

i'm also sure that 1 yr @ 1.38-1.40 will make EU lose a lot of clients....

speculating, only.
please, don't criticize me
I'll shop after the drop
  • #750,797
  • Jan 27, 2013 5:27pm Jan 27, 2013 5:27pm
small ej long at 122.77 SL @122.687 TP open

Out at 82 +5 , just a small scalp, don't like trading sunday opens, a lot of false moves
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  • #750,798
  • Jan 27, 2013 5:43pm Jan 27, 2013 5:43pm
Quoting Willow
nice, but if monthly rsi is so high... not sure it will fly up there so soon...

anyway, how can you bring back home your own currency ?
1. you intervene and make it volatile to scare the bulls...
2. you devalue it in 3 steps; 1.35 > 1.30 > 1.25 , to make that half world release the euros [accumulated as gold] and buy your products

They painted a bullish chart but EU unemployment needs to IMPROVE a lot, right at the beginning of the spring, without late, or....

maybe EU can chew it, i don't know.

i'm also sure that 1 yr @ 1.38-1.40 will make...
i like your speculation


UJ will probably pull back soon but will continue up after that


EU will also bear here soon just a matter of when.. EU not as bullish as UJ so it could see a much larger pull back


EJ seems to be the most active pair at the moment. Even during London and NY
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #750,799
  • Jan 27, 2013 5:54pm Jan 27, 2013 5:54pm
nothing till London. take rest!
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #750,800
  • Jan 27, 2013 6:12pm Jan 27, 2013 6:12pm
Your series of Euro & USDX charts demonstrate consistent progression towards L/T targets with conviction, that takes know how & vision.. well done 財弟弟!

Quoting geniusztc
your chart seems more professional.


Quoting cdndollar
..
for this round I believe M/T money is looking for 1.35 with a potential over-shot up to 1.38 prior to any major correction.. However, looking at the COT positions & other correlated instruments PA, I would not be surprise if Euro rise 10+ figures from here with its tendency to form major top & bottom in December & January for the year/medium/term period.. but then again, anything is possible, our job as a trader is to manage our bets with adjusted risk & let our market bias take care of the rest..
Quarterly Up Fractal from November now testing 1.35..
M/T 1.35 may just be an hiccup en-route to 1.50 again..

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1355204489

Since FX does not move in a straight line, you can bet that the other camp will be shouting for 1.25~1.20 again every time Euro retrace a few figures en-route to 1.45~1.50..
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