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  • #401
  • Dec 1, 2012 12:15pm Dec 1, 2012 12:15pm
Ohhh I'm sorry, I have made a mistake. I was talking about Netflix (NFLX). I leave you the chart now.

Quoting gregofx
Hi Split, I am following NTFL. Technically it has a good base to go upwards, and I think also that has very good fundamentals. Please could you give me your opinion?

Thank you.

Greg.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #402
  • Dec 2, 2012 8:21am Dec 2, 2012 8:21am
Quoting gregofx
Ohhh I'm sorry, I have made a mistake. I was talking about Netflix (NFLX). I leave you the chart now.
Hi Greg, I am currently on vacation which has made me out of sync with the markets. However, looking at NFLX it does look good, Carl Ichan who's a huge investor recently announced that he had bough calls in NFLX, if this guy got interested in NFLX then that should mean that theres something cooking in there. I would advice you to dig deeper on the stock for you to build a thesis and develop conviction for this idea I will take a look at it more closely when am back if your still interested in the stock.
  • #403
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:12am Dec 4, 2012 7:12am
Hi Split, thank you for your advice. Please, have a nice vacation!!!

Greg.

Quoting split_unit
Hi Greg, I am currently on vacation which has made me out of sync with the markets. However, looking at NFLX it does look good, Carl Ichan who's a huge investor recently announced that he had bough calls in NFLX, if this guy got interested in NFLX then that should mean that theres something cooking in there. I would advice you to dig deeper on the stock for you to build a thesis and develop conviction for this idea I will take a look at it more closely when am...
  • #404
  • Dec 16, 2012 10:43pm Dec 16, 2012 10:43pm
Quoting split_unit
A while ago back when I wrote about RIMM back when it was at 7.83 on why I strongly believed it was going higher, it is currently at 11.66 which is 32.8% increase (not a fibonacci number). I did my analysis on all fronts and wrote about it publicly here cause I had CONVICTION, it allowed me to hold the trade and it performed very well. Proper analysis is the only way to obtain above average returns, and that happens only through practice and knowledge.
RIMM just went parabolic
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  • #405
  • Dec 16, 2012 10:44pm Dec 16, 2012 10:44pm
Quoting split_unit
RIMM just went parabolic
RIMM should slow down abit here after rallying four days in a row despite the market slowing down closing lower on 3 continuous days.
  • #406
  • Jan 26, 2013 9:43am Jan 26, 2013 9:43am
Hi all,

I've been gone for a while and I felt like posting my latest trade, it is by no means a buy recommendation, it is simply an idea that I feel like sharing. Anyways, the stock I am talking about is hhgregg (HGG)and below is my thesis:

Fundamentally:

 

  1. Low P/E and even lower Enterprise Value / Earnings Before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortization

  1. an increase in the book value per share, free cash flow yield and return on invested capital over the past 5 years

  1. insider buying at 136.99%

  1. zero debt hence the zero Debt/Equity ratio

  1. forward P/E of 9.84 after management reduced it guidance

  1. book value per share is at $9.97 with a price to book ratio of 0.8.

Technically:

 

  1. Weekly base between $5.8 and $8.8

  1. the base looks like an inverted head and shoulders pattern

  1. a breakout above $8.8 could send this stock flying.

Miscellaneous:

 

  1. Earnings are on 31/Jan before market opens, earnings could be a huge catalyst for this under appreciated stock on both the downside and upside

  1. the Company is also one of the highest shorted companies on Wall Street which could result in a sharp short squeeze

  1. unfair criticism of the stock after the strong sell recommendation by Zacks which makes the stock a contrarian play


Risks:

  1. The company reports totally abysmal earnings which are below expectations and below their already reduced guidance

  1. the industry as a whole continues to weaken due to online competitive advantage of companies like Amazon and Ebay as technological change slowly wipes this company from existence

  1. this could be a classic value trap as the companies margins get tighter and tighter until they start incurring losses with operating margin already as low as 3.87% ,operating yield however has been increasing over the years


The reward on this thesis out weight the risk and make HG an interesting investment proposition, I am looking forward to the earnings and how HGG performs over the coming couple of months.

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  • #407
  • Jan 31, 2013 12:00pm Jan 31, 2013 12:00pm
HGG up +10% today on earnings and above its 200 SMA! If this breaks above 8.80 it could start an stronger up move.

Full disclosure: SL moved to B/E.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #408
  • Feb 1, 2013 6:52am Feb 1, 2013 6:52am
HGG > 8.80 up 7.19% today. Clean breakout above resistance, it is key that price holds above 8.8 going forward.
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  • #409
  • Feb 2, 2013 2:44am Feb 2, 2013 2:44am
Today I am going to share one of my screeners that I use to pick growth stocks that are growing really fast, these stocks tend to outperform in low volatility bull markets like the current one. The criteria are:

- Market cap > 300 million, I don't really care if the company is small or huge as long as it has a market, companies below 300 million market cap tend to be more risky.
- County USA, I want stocks in a market that I know. I don't want to trade stocks of countries I am not familiar with my main concern being regulation so I avoid foreign stocks.
- Dividend yield is zero, the top line growth companies should not distribute any dividends as they invest internally or rapid expansion. If they begin to give out dividends then that should be taken as a sign that business growth is beginning to mature as internal investment opportunity saturate which prompts management to distribute cash back to shareholders.
- Sales growth qtr over qtr of over 10%. Companies that are growing fast are usually selling their products like hot cakes so a growth in sales is only natural.
- Gross margin of over 50%. Gross margin is calculated as Sales - Cost of goods sold in the income statement. It is usually the first two items displayed and gives us an indication of how effective the company is at selling its products.
- Insider transactions > 0%. I want to know that insiders like their own company and are buying shares before I decide to buy.

Exclusions:

EPS or earnings per share, top line growth companies are usually more interested in growing their top line business (sales or revenue) as opposed to growing their bottom line (net profit) this is usually associated with higher selling, general & administrative expenses as companies seek to invest internally to accommodate higher growth while expanding their balance sheet.
Debt/Equity, growth companies usually have debt to finance investments/expansion making debt irrelevant.
P/E, as mentioned earlier, the sole purpose of top line growth companies is to grow their top line (sales or revenue) these companies might not have any earnings to begin with as they incur costs while expanding their balance sheet making P/E an irrelevant measure in this situation.
Operating margin.

There you have it folks, my top line growth screener, I word of advice would be to look for companies in the tech sector when conducting this screen as they are the companies that usually grow the fastest.

Companies that got my attention while conducting this screen include YELP, LNKD & WDAY. All I need to do now is decide when and how I enter any of these stocks.

Hope this was useful.

split
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  • #410
  • Feb 2, 2013 3:18am Feb 2, 2013 3:18am
An example of the results from these screens would be these two puppies with the first being IPO'ed in 2011 and the second in 2008. Both the stocks are making new all time highs.
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  • #411
  • Feb 8, 2013 6:37am Feb 8, 2013 6:37am
Quoting split_unit
An example of the results from these screens would be these two puppies with the first being IPO'ed in 2011 and the second in 2008. Both the stocks are making new all time highs.
Holy $hI* , LNKD beat estimates on its earnings and is almost 18% higher!
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  • #412
  • Feb 11, 2013 1:14pm Feb 11, 2013 1:14pm
I have no words!!! Keep on posting, we are learning from you!!!

Quoting split_unit
Holy $hI* , LNKD beat estimates on its earnings and is almost 18% higher!
  • #413
  • Feb 12, 2013 2:00am Feb 12, 2013 2:00am
Quoting gregofx
I have no words!!! Keep on posting, we are learning from you!!!
cool, if you have any questions don't hesitate to shoot away...
  • #414
  • Feb 13, 2013 7:18am Feb 13, 2013 7:18am
Quoting split_unit
Holy $hI* , LNKD beat estimates on its earnings and is almost 18% higher!
And there goes PRO...up 22.5 percent in one day!
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  • #415
  • Feb 13, 2013 10:42am Feb 13, 2013 10:42am
Quoting split_unit
And there goes PRO...up 22.5 percent in one day!
great calls!!!
more please :-)
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #416
  • Feb 14, 2013 1:12am Feb 14, 2013 1:12am
Quoting aserbfx
great calls!!!
more please :-)
Hey aserbfx! Nice of you to pass by, don't worry as long as the market keeps trading then more calls will keep on coming.
  • #417
  • Feb 14, 2013 4:57am Feb 14, 2013 4:57am
Amazing!!!

Quoting split_unit
And there goes PRO...up 22.5 percent in one day!
  • #418
  • Feb 14, 2013 7:32am Feb 14, 2013 7:32am
Quoting gregofx
Amazing!!!
It did what I thought it would do, it could have easily headed south... I got lucky again
  • #419
  • Feb 19, 2013 8:06pm Feb 19, 2013 8:06pm
Quoting split_unit
Hi all,

I've been gone for a while and I felt like posting my latest trade, it is by no means a buy recommendation, it is simply an idea that I feel like sharing. Anyways, the stock I am talking about is hhgregg (HGG)and below is my thesis:

Fundamentally:

 

  1. Low P/E and even lower Enterprise Value / Earnings Before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortization

  1. an increase in the book value per share, free cash flow yield and return on invested capital over the past 5 years

  1. insider buying at 136.99%

[list][*]zero...

HGG still going... its difficult not to make money when you buy things cheap, buying stocks now as the SPY makes multi year highs gives very little margin of safety with alot of downside potential...in other words buying now doesn't give you a favorable risk/reward ratio.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #420
  • Feb 23, 2013 8:20am Feb 23, 2013 8:20am
Quoting split_unit
HGG still going... its difficult not to make money when you buy things cheap, buying stocks now as the SPY makes multi year highs gives very little margin of safety with alot of downside potential...in other words buying now doesn't give you a favorable risk/reward ratio.
I tend to agree, as I've paired back a number of the longs in my portfolio. I've tried to actively look for stocks that might offer shorting opportunities if indeed stocks are going to pull back. That said, the Fed is super accommodative now and shorting might be tricky if the tide is still rising.

BTW, nice thread here -- good to see there's some other stock guys on this site.
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