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  • #25,921
  • Jan 25, 2013 11:40am Jan 25, 2013 11:40am
Quoting DaddyBear
I have traded Nadex Binary Options before with some successes. Now I will trade again. I entered daily > 1.0380 by 1500 EST with $3 per contract. If I make it I will get $100 in return minus $4. The maximum risk is $4. Can I make it? Will update later. It was 97/0 now 96/99.50.

Nice trade, looks like it wanted to test 1.039 all along but I would be surprised if they could take out so easy today.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #25,922
  • Jan 25, 2013 3:15pm Jan 25, 2013 3:15pm
Originally I expected 0.96. Now I expect 0.94, 200 pips more. LOL

AUD/NZD is also a safe short. I am 100% sure its bottom will fall off soon.

My stop loss is at 1.06, I doubt we will ever see that price again.

AUD/NZD monthly chart is like a perfect downside triangle.
  • #25,923
  • Jan 25, 2013 3:36pm Jan 25, 2013 3:36pm
Quoting mry2001
Originally I expected 0.96. Now I expect 0.94, 200 pips more. LOL

AUD/NZD is also a safe short. I am 100% sure its bottom will fall off soon.

My stop loss is at 1.06, I doubt we will ever see that price again.

AUD/NZD monthly chart is like a perfect downside triangle.
never say never in this business, but agree bears out of the wood
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #25,924
  • Jan 25, 2013 4:20pm Jan 25, 2013 4:20pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This bounce could be real or fake ........
I called it a "bounce" because that would be all it was.....
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #25,925
  • Jan 25, 2013 4:25pm Jan 25, 2013 4:25pm
Quoting chiknthief
30 WEEK CYCLE

Here is an interesting angle on the aussie $. We find major turning points aprox. every 30 weeks. Counting ahead 30 weeks from the most recent line projects another major turning point out in the middle of april. With the heavy commercial net short position in the aussie, I predict a major LOW out in april. This market is a screaming SELL. The LTL will not hold for long. The BIG BEAR is here.
What made you use 30 weeks vrs 21 weeks or etc.?
I saw your lines , I had a 38 period move that I was looking at also
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #25,926
  • Jan 25, 2013 4:54pm Jan 25, 2013 4:54pm
Quoting forexalien
What made you use 30 weeks vrs 21 weeks or etc.?
I saw your lines , I had a 38 period move that I was looking at also
I would try 34.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #25,927
  • Jan 25, 2013 9:07pm Jan 25, 2013 9:07pm
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=b5a_1359141117
  • #25,928
  • Jan 25, 2013 9:13pm Jan 25, 2013 9:13pm
comments please from AUD traders...

http://www.efxnews.com/story/16849/nomura-buys-15-million-audusd-targeting-11081-risking-10300
  • #25,929
  • Jan 25, 2013 11:41pm Jan 25, 2013 11:41pm
Yes I had read that article now I am not sure of their reasoning but prior to that I was nbthinking that the next charge up by the aud could break through and end up at 1.10-1.12. I read somewhere a while back that the IMF was talking of making the AUD a major currency, that would screw us over big time so I hope not 1.05 is bad enough.
Quoting glenngie
comments please from AUD traders...

http://www.efxnews.com/story/16849/nomura-buys-15-million-audusd-targeting-11081-risking-10300
  • #25,930
  • Jan 26, 2013 12:54am Jan 26, 2013 12:54am
You guys are all so Bearish, tell me why it can't go the other way?
I have a lot of support for a bounce on my chart..
Aussie doesn't fall apart that easy, we all know that do we not ?
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  • #25,931
  • Jan 26, 2013 1:38am Jan 26, 2013 1:38am
she can ................ UP and Down plus test and retest prev s/r.

depends your own strategy............ no right or wrong in this biz

but personally.... at the moment and few days ago... ausie is not in her proper place .

no significant fundamental and the intrinsic value is not special also

the higher ausie the worst for her in future

just carry trade which push her higher and higher....

imho

***
based on your chart.. 1.02x and 1.01x is quite possible if and after 1.03x broken. well....... to go to 1.03x...... yes no straight line... she can dance


Quoting ozpips
You guys are all so Bearish, tell me why it can't go the other way?
I have a lot of support for a bounce on my chart..
Aussie doesn't fall apart that easy, we all know that do we not ?
not euphoria follower
  • #25,932
  • Jan 26, 2013 7:38am Jan 26, 2013 7:38am
This is what I see on daily chart. The long term support trend line is broken.
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  • #25,933
  • Jan 26, 2013 7:49am Jan 26, 2013 7:49am
This is a picture of AUDNZD.

I am going to hold a very small short position for long term because there is no stop loss.
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  • #25,934
  • Jan 26, 2013 9:02am Jan 26, 2013 9:02am
Quoting mry2001
This is what I see on daily chart. The long term support trend line is broken.

Not necessarily mate, candle didn't close below.

Monday will show
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  • #25,935
  • Jan 26, 2013 11:41am Jan 26, 2013 11:41am
Quoting 10518
Not necessarily mate, candle didn't close below.

Monday will show
Good call....
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #25,936
  • Jan 26, 2013 11:47am Jan 26, 2013 11:47am
[quote=forexalien;6395553]What made you use 30 weeks vrs 21 weeks or etc.?
I saw your lines , I had a 38 period move that I was looking at also[/quote

No particular reason other than the fact the turning points were hitting like clock work on the 'WEEKLY' chart. NOTE : that was on the weekly time frame only, NOT any other time period. Your chart is a one hour chart - it has its own timing and rhythm thats not necessarily the same as other charts of differing time periods. Thats whats so koool about charts. I was only pointing out something I found interesting and wanted to share it.
  • #25,937
  • Jan 26, 2013 11:50am Jan 26, 2013 11:50am
Quoting 10518
Not necessarily mate, candle didn't close below.

Monday will show
It did close below on 4h chart.

You can still argue that there is no sure thing on forex market. It can bounce back to break 1.06 after it close below 1.03. That is true. Anything can happen so we always take loss.
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  • #25,938
  • Jan 26, 2013 11:55am Jan 26, 2013 11:55am
Quoting glenngie
comments please from AUD traders...

http://www.efxnews.com/story/16849/nomura-buys-15-million-audusd-targeting-11081-risking-10300
If price repeats it'self, possible 200 more pip drop..............Stochastics look the same in first panel. Back in end of Sept. and beginning of Nov. same setup as now for 200 more pip drop. But most of us play the daily swings and can't hold our trades that long......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #25,939
  • Jan 26, 2013 11:59am Jan 26, 2013 11:59am
[quote=chiknthief;6396149]
Quoting forexalien
What made you use 30 weeks vrs 21 weeks or etc.?
I saw your lines , I had a 38 period move that I was looking at also[/quote

No particular reason other than the fact the turning points were hitting like clock work on the 'WEEKLY' chart. NOTE : that was on the weekly time frame only, NOT any other time period. Your chart is a one hour chart - it has its own timing and rhythm thats not necessarily the same as other charts of differing time periods. Thats whats so koool about charts. I was only pointing out something I...
Thanks for sharing....I have been working on the 3rd dimension of timing the forex markets, that is why I showed the H1 with head and shoulders, how the shoulders and head were at equal distance to each other.......
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #25,940
  • Jan 26, 2013 12:07pm Jan 26, 2013 12:07pm
Quoting ozpips
You guys are all so Bearish, tell me why it can't go the other way?
I have a lot of support for a bounce on my chart..
Aussie doesn't fall apart that easy, we all know that do we not ?

The number one problem with many traders is that they are thinking wrong. They think its the charts that move markets. Nothing could be further from the truth. Its the 'CONDITIONS' that move the markets not charts. The charts only reflect the conditions, AFTER THE FACT. The conditions on the COT (net traders positions) show us we're on the verge of a major sell off. This could be HUGE.

The aussie doesn't fall apart that easy - UNTIL IT DOES !!! Buying dips in a bull market works as long as it works until it don't work no more. (thats the law of the market)
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