EurAnalysis

Perhaps you meant lack of EI (emotional intelligence)

YOURSELF...within the frame work you WISH to be in! So you wanna make a $1000 in a 10 pip move...the question is not can you MAKE a $1000 but can you LOSE $5000 or handle the draw down that comes with the position size.... (just number example - everyone has different pain thresholds).. We are all ready to win...as we are born knowing life...and therefore we are conditioned not to accept responsibility for our losses based on our decisions? Like everything else you must first grow mentally into that frame work you wish to be in... through disciplined learning which starts with the understanding of yourself within that frame work...this brings it all together...and ironically takes it all apart..

perhap ur right in round about way but winner is O henry for the most direct answer.oh yes emotional intelligence by daniel goleman is a very good book to understand once feeling.
any of the religious books are good to understand emotional intelligence but presently slow and fast thinking by daniel kahenman is a good start for busy people.

here it goes.i am posting this compound MP chart for last 2yrs showing 2 ledges 1&2 which is where prices try to find value with lot of empty spaces in between.presently prices are at ledge 1 and i am expecting prices play in the empty space to find value and complete the normal distribution curve.ledge one is at 1.3050 and ledge 2 at 1.4200.
my fundmental feeling is,since we are at the end of crisis and fed introduce so much liquidity in the market dollar should be weakening and equity market going up,probably the big money is already in place buying cheap assets last few years for them to go up.also fed already have enough real assets on its balance sheet and they will be selling them at profit next few years.
not to forget draghi,chap seems to be very upbeat lately about euro and its prospect and my feeling is prices may be going all the way upto 145 but first stop will be at 135/136.
next thing from short term perspective if we merge last four month data fair price is at 1.3050 and from it may jump to 140.saying so the tecnicalities how we going to reach will be very interesting to follow.obviously presently the prices are at slighly overbought conditions with correction overdue but last few days activities shows its maintaining fine balance and there is every possibility that market may fak the retail trader properly before taking its directional course,hence i am expecting some big spikes to take weaker hands out of the market,which is also what making me jumpy about taking the position in any direction may be a price at 1.3050 is a proper place to establish longs and 1.3550 for short position in the short term.regards and god bless

EUR/CHF

The Great Swiss Opportunity
By Sean Hyman, Editor of Currency Cross Trader


When you think of Switzerland, you might think of their famed Alps – or you might even think of the Davos meeting, or their Swiss banks.

However, when I think of Switzerland, I recall the one thing that has plagued them for the past five years – the relationship of the Swiss franc to the euro.

Until 2008, the euro gained on the Swiss franc and the Swiss were happy, because they are huge exporters of things like watches and chocolates.

Switzerland’s biggest customer is in the rest of Europe, and all those customers use the euro.

When the euro was gaining against the franc, Swiss goods seemed inexpensive to buy. But then came the financial crisis of 2008, and the EUR/CHF exchange rate began to plummet.
How the Swiss Have Suffered

It has been on that downward trajectory for five years now. The euro got weaker and the franc grew stronger. Swiss exporters were crying the blues, because the rest of Europe could not afford their chocolates and watches as easily now.

So the central bank got to work. First, they tried to “talk their currency down” by making comments to the public that should have undermined the franc, but that didn’t work. Then they took the next step, which was to intervene in the currency market by selling francs and buying euros. Of course, almost all currency interventions only work in the near-term; they almost always fail long-term.

So when individual interventions did not work, they decided to establish what some people refer to as a “peg” – although it was more of a “floor” at CHF1.20 per euro, and they didn’t want the exchange rate to drop below that.

Whenever the exchange rate did attempt to dip below this floor, the Swiss central bank would simply intervene to support the currency.
And this went on for almost a year and a half. Tons of francs were sold and tons of euros were bought.

Well, not only is their central bank now about to get a breather and see things turn their way for the first time in five years, but their economy is also about to catch a break for the first time in half a decade.

So, let’s take a look at the EUR/CHF exchange rate over the last 10 years, so you can see what I’m looking at.

EUR/CHF Breaches the Crucial 1.24 Level

http://sovereignsociety.com/files/20...-Graph-110.png

And here’s the opportunity… for well over a year now, EUR/CHF hasn’t even been a tradable instrument (from a practical standpoint anyway), because the CHF1.20 floor kept the exchange rate trading in about a 5-10 pip range. But now…

EUR/CHF is in the Process of Turning Around

As of last September, EUR/CHF awoke from a Swiss central bank-induced coma and the exchange rate finally began to rise – a boon to both the central bank and exporters.

In just the last week, the EUR/CHF exchange rate rose more than 300 pips. That’s huge for a currency that has hardly moved. And not only is its swift rise important, but so is the level that it’s at right now.

EUR/CHF’s five-year decline is now sitting around a downtrend line that has been in effect for four of those years. And that downtrend line meets the exchange rate’s price at around the CHF1.24 level.

As I’m writing this, the pair has traded above that level. If it can hold above CHF1.24 over the next week or two, we’re going to see EUR/CHF head back up into the 1.30s – and that’s a profit opportunity.

Even if that move does fail, it will likely take out the downtrend line and begin its new uptrend upon its next approach – and that will be soon.

The Swiss Economy Gets a Boost

Either way, the change in the trend direction of EUR/CHF into a new uptrend is going to put the wind at the Swiss economy’s back for the first time in five years.

With this kind of knowledge, there are at least a couple of ways to profit.

The most pure play is to simply buy the EUR/CHF pair in the Forex market. So for those of you with a Forex account who are comfortable trading in the leveraged Forex market, this may be the best way to profit.

However, for those that have never ventured into the Forex market, there is another simple way to play this.

Since the Swiss economy has been held hostage for the past five years by the EUR/CHF exchange rate, it’s no surprise their stock market has gone nowhere during that time as well.

In fact, let’s take a look at an ETF below that tracks Swiss stocks on the weekly, 10-year chart.

Swiss Stocks Will Awaken As EUR/CHF Holds Above 1.24

http://sovereignsociety.com/files/20...I-Graph-24.png

So the other way that you can easily play the change of trend direction in EUR/CHF is to buy an ETF that tracks Swiss stocks, like EWL, as shown above.

Swiss stocks have been consolidating in a range for five years, but they’ve been waiting for the proper catalyst to trigger a break-out and I believe we have that catalyst as EUR/CHF begins to hold above the 1.24 level. Swiss stocks look as though they will finally get their much-needed lift.

Have a nice day!

Sean Hyman
Editor, Currency Cross Trader

Hmmmmmmmmm I wouldn't be surprised

From ZH

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
EURUSD Is Vulnerable Ahead Of 'LTRO Friday'



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...ad-ltro-friday

and yet up it goes...

fears - eur goes up...

good U.S. data- eur goes up...

nothing seems to be able to reverse the beast.

my 1.3409 limit finally got filled - short at 1.3259 now - target 1.30 (up from 1.29)

yeah, amazing resilience (or manipulation)

The range over the next hour should indicate whether she has run her course for the day & maybe give a pull back to 3350...or if she means to still challenge R2...

hehe, look at EURGBP weekly.


anyways, it's trend...

noone seems to have the power to nudge it further once a small correction is in place.

And JPY; AUD; GBP and the likes are doing a great job lifting the overall value of eur.

It's like Draghi is saying: "currency war ? what currency war ? Spain, italy, greece, portugal and ireland would looooove a strong currency."

Its all the stop orders that have a domino effect, and provide easy fodder for the big boys - necessitated by a culture of heavy leveraging and tight stops. Right from the time someone takes the first lesson in fx trading, they are taught to use stop levels to catch break outs and/ or protect their over leveraged accounts. Millions of traders wanting to buy higher than market, why wouldn't the big boys go and sell to them? Its only after all these accounts are cleaned out and there is no more capital to stop trade, does the price reverse (making big buks for the market makers).

Market makers play this to their advantage further by feeding contradictory news hoping to minimize the gaps between stops - all they have to do then is a little nudge and voila - new high for them to sell at.

Nothing any of us can do about it of course, except fume and keep guessing tops/ bottoms and average out the price - key is the minimal use of leverage through managed lot sizes

Plus I think, you have nailed it through your above quote.

Good green morning traders....

Hmmm...
Could anybody help me?
What does this chart pattern remind you? Reversed head and hands, or legs, hmmmm...

Ecb says banks to repay 137.2 bln euros of 3-year ltro money on jan 30

so....137 BLN....any comments ?

1.34800 soon ????

My friend you have said it all... It seems nothing can derail the E train... that is until it it happens. Someone is selling though to satisfy these buyers

Here's a quick up-to-date on GBP and EURO

Where have all the regulars gone???
There's no-one here anymore and I miss you all