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Elliott wave outlook

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  • #6,221
  • Jan 24, 2013 2:42am Jan 24, 2013 2:42am
Being that we have just had a minor 4th of prior degree, i think it looks good to go. I was hoping to tie in a fib level of W for Y to coincide with the 61.8% level, alas, no doing, so still a little inconclusive, but you now have to admit, it looks like both the GJ and EJ at least might be completed, but would be nice to see Eu hit 13,252 yet.
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  • #6,222
  • Jan 24, 2013 3:18am Jan 24, 2013 3:18am
eu/y

long from 117,784

for now it was a great choice
I'll Sell when price is heading to Hell
  • #6,223
  • Jan 24, 2013 3:32am Jan 24, 2013 3:32am
Ok, i've tried to include as much info here as i can.

Over the past few days i have tried to state that peeps get caught usually by mistaking a 5w count for an abc. (it is merely the 'c' wave that has the 5w count of similar degree and is usually very swift, often concealing its own 4th as a small irregular etc... Its very easy to be waiting for your 4th wave and lower, only to see it retrace in an X wave. Also the speed of 'c' lulls you into a false sense of security. By the time you feel safe to go short eg, the wave is virtually finished, only to catch you wrongly positioned. Then by the time you've had enough and stop out for a loss, the X wave finishes and it returns south... sound familiar?

My point is this... here is the difference between corrective and impulsive. Here the EJ is making a much clearer count and observing fib levels perfectly;

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...y24-01-13b.png
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  • #6,224
  • Jan 24, 2013 3:42am Jan 24, 2013 3:42am
Quoting The Cableguy
Yes mate, better to take a couple weeks off and do something less tiring!

Anyway, here we go, i think tradingview have a slightly wrong count (as is my above GbpJpy chart). It matters little, cos i like the look of the correction bouncing off of the 70.7% level. It appears very very common level for 4th waves when the 3rd was extended. It does of course, however, leave that nagging question about the 61.8% level (38.2% retrace). Anyway, here you will see what i mean. I feel it is already too big a correction to be a sub move, therefore we must...
Looks like your reading your fibs from a different level to me on GJ. I am measuring from the 130.446 low to the 144.774 high. You also appear to be reading them upside down to me. By the 38.2 retrace I mean 38.2% of the whole move between those two levels measured from the high down.
  • #6,225
  • Jan 24, 2013 3:49am Jan 24, 2013 3:49am
Quoting Gray
Looks like your reading your fibs from a different level to me on GJ. I am measuring from the 130.446 low to the 144.774 high. You also appear to be reading them upside down to me. By the 38.2 retrace I mean 38.2% of the whole move between those two levels measured from the high down.

Gray, that is as per my first chart and don't worry, the only reason i list it upside down is that we don't talk about a 29.3% fib level ever, this would have to be the converse of the 70.7%. Its just laziness on my part, but i did put (38.2% retrace in brackets!)

I simply don't like this count. If you go to this level, you are saying this is the 4th which counters that tiny abc (minor ('i'&'ii'). Look again at the last chart. It is taken off of the end of a wave 2, therefore my fibs are retracing the 3rd wave, (not a subwave)...
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  • #6,226
  • Jan 24, 2013 3:58am Jan 24, 2013 3:58am
As always a chart says a thousand words!

I didn't like the look of the leading diagonal wave 1 to begin with and wasn't sure if it was a bit more complex (abc?), but to be fair, i think its right. If someone tells me different i'm happy to listen...

Now you can see what i meant. The 70.7% is a retracement level of the whole 3rd wave, (we don't say it retraced 29.3%);

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...y24-01-13c.png
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  • #6,227
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:07am Jan 24, 2013 4:07am
Quoting The Cableguy
Gray, that is as per my first chart and don't worry, the only reason i list it upside down is that we don't talk about a 29.3% fib level ever, this would have to be the converse of the 70.7%. Its just laziness on my part, but i did put (38.2% retrace in brackets!)

I simply don't like this count. If you go to this level, you are saying this is the 4th which counters that tiny abc (minor ('i'&'ii'). Look again at the last chart. It is taken off of the end of a wave 2, therefore my fibs are retracing the 3rd wave, (not a subwave)...

There's the difference. We have the degree's labeled differently. My chart says we may have just finished minor wave ((iv)) with ((v)) left to complete the larger degree wave 3 and yours says we have finished wave 3 and possibly 4 and may be working on 5. For GJ
  • #6,228
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:08am Jan 24, 2013 4:08am
Quoting The Cableguy
As always a chart says a thousand words!

I didn't like the look of the leading diagonal wave 1 to begin with and wasn't sure if it was a bit more complex (abc?), but to be fair, i think its right. If someone tells me different i'm happy to listen...

Now you can see what i meant. The 70.7% is a retracement level of the whole 3rd wave, (we don't say it retraced 29.3%);

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...y24-01-13c.png
Ha Ha BINGO!! yep you could be right
  • #6,229
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:11am Jan 24, 2013 4:11am
Quoting Gray
There's the difference. We have the degree's labeled differently. My chart says we may have just finished minor wave ((iv)) with ((v)) left to complete the larger degree wave 3 and yours says we have finished wave 3 and possibly 4 and may be working on 5. For GJ

Its what i thought you meant! and also why i said, i think this is too big a move to be a further subwave ('iv'th). The one before looks likely to be the last subwave 'iv'th imo... always look for a double set, easily confused initially with an irregular correction...
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  • #6,230
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:36am Jan 24, 2013 4:36am
Quoting The Cableguy
Its what i thought you meant! and also why i said, i think this is too big a move to be a further subwave ('iv'th). The one before looks likely to be the last subwave 'iv'th imo... always look for a double set, easily confused initially with an irregular correction...
GJ 4hr chart from 14th January
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp jpy 4hr 14 01 13.jpg Size: 67 KB
  • #6,231
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:44am Jan 24, 2013 4:44am
Hi Traders,

Silver finally started pushing lower, like we say few weeks ago, invalidation is not broken and here is a latest chart for this commodity. I will post 3-4 more charts today because i think we can see grate opportunity soon

-ND-
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAGUSD - Primary Analysis - Jan-24 0238 AM (4 hour).jpg Size: 66 KB
  • #6,232
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:48am Jan 24, 2013 4:48am
Quoting Gray
GJ 4hr chart from 14th January
Wow! I never look at anyone else's work (well, you know, other than what i come across say; on here for example).
That at least confirms my leading diagonal wave 1 theory then... Pretty similar by all counts!
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  • #6,233
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:56am Jan 24, 2013 4:56am
Another short term possibility for EJhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/59jiIbpg/
  • #6,234
  • Jan 24, 2013 5:04am Jan 24, 2013 5:04am
Well, so now we know its a 5w advance, should we buy the ensuing abc retrace?
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  • #6,235
  • Jan 24, 2013 5:15am Jan 24, 2013 5:15am
shouldn't we be expecting an extended 5th to reach 12,020?
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  • #6,236
  • Jan 24, 2013 5:17am Jan 24, 2013 5:17am
Quoting The Cableguy
Well, so now we know its a 5w advance, should we buy the ensuing abc retrace?
Thats a very good question. Keep in mind it could just as easy be labeled as an abc up with more downside to follow. I'm sure both of us have thought about that scenario
  • #6,237
  • Jan 24, 2013 5:19am Jan 24, 2013 5:19am
Here is mine count on EJ pair, i think we are at the end of the D wave of the 4 wave triangle, i am expecting to see bearish movement soon.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.png Size: 53 KB
  • #6,238
  • Jan 24, 2013 5:21am Jan 24, 2013 5:21am
Quoting Gray
Thats a very good question. Keep in mind it could just as easy be labeled as an abc up with more downside to follow. I'm sure both of us have thought about that scenario
my earlier chart;

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...y24-01-13b.png

I reckon the fibs are too good, but yes, its why i ask for 12,020+
The other concern (although unlikely) is that it was an irregular 'B' wave before this one...
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  • #6,239
  • Jan 24, 2013 5:24am Jan 24, 2013 5:24am
Quoting -nd-
Here is mine count on EJ pair, i think we are at the end of the D wave of the 4 wave triangle, i am expecting to see bearish movement soon.

Hi -nd-;

That's another case where the stop below your 'c' (the start of this upmove be it in 5w or an abc) will be safe. For sure we will have an abc back down soon, but may see an extending 5th yet...
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  • #6,240
  • Jan 24, 2013 5:31am Jan 24, 2013 5:31am
Only reason i don't want to work on it as a wedge is because i think the prior move up was a clear 5w with an ending diagonal and we have an irregular 'B' ('X') wave, with (so far) Y=W;

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...y24-01-13d.png
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