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Sonic R. System

  • #43,321
  • Jan 24, 2013 2:58am Jan 24, 2013 2:58am
SM building long before news between 3 minutes there are other news on EUR
  • #43,322
  • Jan 24, 2013 3:05am Jan 24, 2013 3:05am
Beware euro longs !!!

Some swift up and down spikes this morning all news manipulated.

Spike down poor French numbers

Spike up excellent German numbers

But...... the last hour on the EURJPY confirms SM still short, it was an up bar on high volume closing off the high, confirmed more if the next bar is down.

Think we will see a little more distribution then down move later towards 118.00

Just my 2 pence.



Quoting traderathome
Market Comment (Cont'd):

If this wasn't serious business, it would be comical.

Told 'cha!

[color=black]Don't know if price will be run higher and longs switched for shorts at top before the USD release, or if price will be kept around here while SM continues to collect longs, and then run prices up after the release. Then maybe take a few days to convert to shorts and then wack the price. One thing is for sure. SM did not do all this price manipulation to build a position without the intention...
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  • #43,323
  • Edited 3:33am Jan 24, 2013 3:14am | Edited 3:33am
Quoting andyvxr
Beware euro longs !!!

Some swift up and down spikes this morning all news manipulated.

Spike down poor French numbers

Spike up excellent German numbers

But...... the last hour on the EURJPY confirms SM still short, it was an up bar on high volume closing off the high, confirmed more if the next bar is down.

Think we will see a little more distribution then down move later towards 118.00

Just my 2 pence.
Thanks Andy!

Personally, I intend to vacate trades before USD release later today. I think if prices rise early beforehand, then SM likely will be closing longs and getting ready for a bigger leg down. I fully agree with you. For now, on EU H1 the dominant bar is bull. And it is currently followed by another bull. So, for this pair and at least for now, things appear to be bullish.

Again, thanks Andy,
-tah
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  • #43,324
  • Jan 24, 2013 3:31am Jan 24, 2013 3:31am
EJ:

Andy, look what my EJ H1 chart shows. The last dominant bar is the green bull bar, followed by currently another bull bar. So, this actually is bullish, not bearish. Is your chart that different from mine? I still agree with your end result sentiment. And price has already hit RDH. It could turn in this area.
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  • #43,325
  • Jan 24, 2013 3:59am Jan 24, 2013 3:59am
Quoting sonicdeejay
I think Next move will be ballistic..

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1358942027

Sonic
22 hrs and 150 pips later

Sonic
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  • #43,326
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:02am Jan 24, 2013 4:02am
Quoting sonicdeejay
22 hrs and 150 pips later

Sonic
....The Master at work!
  • #43,327
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:02am Jan 24, 2013 4:02am
No its bearish, as up bars hold the weakness, remember SM can't sell into a down bar, have to sell into an up bar, look now at the price action on Eurjpy.

Distribution as taken place in the following bar, shot up and come all way back down, did say there maybe more Distribution before the move down.

Look at the volume on the last bar to its dropped off, suggesting not many more shorts to stop out and longs to trigger.

Upthrust bar now printed, terms of the Upthrust, to stop out weak holders of shorts and trigger weak long hands, with tight stops on both sides of the market, which adds to the SM liquidity.


Quoting traderathome
EJ:

Andy, look what my EJ H1 chart shows. The last dominant bar is the green bull bar, followed by currently another bull bar. So, this actually is bullish, not bearish. Is your chart that different from mine? I still agree with your end result sentiment. And price has already hit RDH. It could turn in this area.
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  • #43,328
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:07am Jan 24, 2013 4:07am
Suppose time will tell, I play a longer game than you guys, so a move against me 100 pips doesn't hurt me.

I brought the Eurjpy up right at the tops at 120.35, so still in profit but I hold a lot longer till 111.50ish area.
  • #43,329
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:11am Jan 24, 2013 4:11am
Quoting andyvxr
No its bearish, as up bars hold the weakness, remember SM can't sell into a down bar, have to sell into an up bar, look now at the price action on Eurjpy.

Distribution as taken place in the following bar, shot up and come all way back down, did say there maybe more Distribution before the move down.

Look at the volume on the last bar to its dropped off, suggesting not many more shorts to stop out and longs to trigger.

Upthrust bar now printed, terms of the Upthrust, to stop out weak holders of shorts and trigger weak long hands, with tight...
Andy,

Ok. Next question. Since we have this PA behaviour on AJ, EJ, UJ, it is predomiately the YEN that is the active ingrediant here, and not the euro? In other words, EJ could start back down, not due to the euro, but due to the YEN strengthening again. So, while SM wacks the YEN pairs, SM could still pump EU for awhile. Right?
  • #43,330
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:14am Jan 24, 2013 4:14am
Seems to me the EURJPY is creating the right shoulder now with this price action which we know is a topping formation for a larger ride south.

As TAH said yesterday its good to have healthy corrections, retraces and swings in price action.

But this now seems to be creating a downtrend as the past movements have been from the head, high, low, lower high, lower low, lower high again.
  • #43,331
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:17am Jan 24, 2013 4:17am
That is a possibility yes.

I must add I am not saying anyone is right or wrong in this thread, its just my opinion, I don't like to preach, just what I see and how I view the market using VSA.


Quoting traderathome
Andy,

Ok. Next question. Since we have this PA behaviour on AJ, EJ, UJ, it is predomiately the YEN that is the active ingrediant here. In other words, EJ could start back down, not due to the euro, but due to the YEN strengthening again. So, while SM wacks the YEN pairs, SM could still pump EU for awhile. Right?
  • #43,332
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:21am Jan 24, 2013 4:21am
AU: Possible explosion upwards!
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  • #43,333
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:21am Jan 24, 2013 4:21am
Andy,

then the next top-of EJ and near 120.00-120.10 them is expected to fall to close the right shoulder until to about 117.50 ... on h1 charts
  • #43,334
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:38am Jan 24, 2013 4:38am
My Take On EURUSD.

There was a Buying Climax to the far left of the chart, which in turn has knocked the PA into a sideways phase of Distribution.

The Distribution Phase as been pretty lengthy, indicating a larger move south, my target is 1.30 as once we have broken the 1.3300-1.3280 levels there is nothing to stop this falling to at least the 1.30 handle, if not more due to the phase expansion we are seeing.

Wyckoff point and figure will indicate about how to measure phases to predicting price targets, if anyone is interested in that.

Looking at the last three hourly bars this is what i see.

Bar 1 - Was an upbar, closing off the high, indicating weakness which was on the highest volume of the last three bars in question.

Bar 2 - Was also an upbar, on lower volume indicating not much SM involvement needed, this bar by the close, closed on the low, potential Upthrust, but would have liked it into new fresh high ground.

Bar 3 - Which is still running at the time of writing this, looks weak half way through the hour, very low volume, if this closes as an up bar on low volume then I would expect in the coming bars for lower prices as this would be classed as a no demand, repeat if it closes as an up bar on low volume.

And with weakness if the background, via the Upthrust, then lower prices ahead I believe.

This is not an exact science.
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  • #43,335
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:41am Jan 24, 2013 4:41am
Quoting cris81
Andy,

then the next top-of EJ and near 120.00-120.10 them is expected to fall to close the right shoulder until to about 117.50 ... on h1 charts
Here you go....
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  • #43,336
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:46am Jan 24, 2013 4:46am
Hi,

I don't think the price action will get that much further up, I don't think the SM need to, but yes I would first expect a fall to the 117.50 area, and then be looking for absorption high volume bar to break the neck line and measure the fall from the head top to the neckline as a potential profit target.

Not that i trade head and shoulders patterns, just something I noticed whilst commenting on this cross, I have my own system and don't trade patterns pre-say but as Tesco says ever little helps lol

Quoting cris81
Andy,

then the next top-of EJ and near 120.00-120.10 them is expected to fall to close the right shoulder until to about 117.50 ... on h1 charts
  • #43,337
  • Jan 24, 2013 4:48am Jan 24, 2013 4:48am
Looks good to me

Quoting traderathome
Here you go....
  • #43,338
  • Jan 24, 2013 5:02am Jan 24, 2013 5:02am
Quoting traderathome
UCad: Entered long. SL1 mental. Very conservative TP1 because has been conservative making new highs.
Quoting traderathome
UCad: Added trade #2 long. This is not a Sonic R. but a Scout trade, and based on the market having just torpedoed the price on rising volume. It could go lower, but this area seems good for a Scout long trade. SL remains mental.
Quoting traderathome
UCad: Entered long. Again, early entry as I did not wait for the current candle to go beyond the previous candle by at least a few pips. Also, not yet LS. FO/LO could pull this back. SL is mental. This is trade 3 long on this pair. I show TP1 because it is appropriate to the trade, but I probably will let this run with the other two trades until one of the earlier picked TPs is reached.
Quoting traderathome
UCad: Entered long. This is #4 of a group of open longs (not the ones closed last week). I took this trade prior to LS for these reasons....

1. Friday was very bullish and there is no reason to think things have changed.
2. PA has pulled back from Friday HOD and is getting "comfortable" at S&R area, having bounced at support and now being above local resistance.
3. Dragon has started to turn back up.
4. Current PA is now mostly above the S&R line (as I have drawn it).
5. Current PA is now mostly above the dragon centerline.
6. PA is above the...
Quoting traderathome
UCad: Entered long. This becomes part of a group of open longs.
UCad: Manually closed all UCad trades for 33x5= 165 pips gain, average EP to close TP.
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  • #43,339
  • Jan 24, 2013 5:03am Jan 24, 2013 5:03am
Finished as a No Demand


Quoting andyvxr
My Take On EURUSD.

There was a Buying Climax to the far left of the chart, which in turn has knocked the PA into a sideways phase of Distribution.

The Distribution Phase as been pretty lengthy, indicating a larger move south, my target is 1.30 as once we have broken the 1.3300-1.3280 levels there is nothing to stop this falling to at least the 1.30 handle, if not more due to the phase expansion we are seeing.

Wyckoff point and figure will indicate about how to measure phases to predicting price targets, if anyone is interested in that.

Looking...
  • #43,340
  • Jan 24, 2013 5:16am Jan 24, 2013 5:16am
thanks for the support but the H&S it's correct or no?
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