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Sonic R. System

  • #43,301
  • Jan 23, 2013 5:44pm Jan 23, 2013 5:44pm
Quoting traderathome
GU: Entered short. Scout. Low volume pump to high grounds before releases interpreted as Pump to Dump. SL remains mental for now, and at least until after upcoming GBP high impact releases, and maybe thru the day. US open could be a concern, too.

Edit: Added second short. Scout. Updated chart.
Edit: Added third short. Scout. Updated chart. TP1 is now tentative. Need to see how this moves. Might trend down for the rest of the week.
GU: Manually close all three shorts at TP2 for 28x3 = 84 pips gain on the three trades, EPs to TP2.
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  • #43,302
  • Jan 23, 2013 6:07pm Jan 23, 2013 6:07pm
Quoting traderathome
GU: Manually close all three shorts at TP2 for 28x3 = 84 pips gain on the three trades, EPs to TP2.
Nice trades mate, but why do you close if you think the down side is more probable....
  • #43,303
  • Edited 7:06pm Jan 23, 2013 6:40pm | Edited 7:06pm
Quoting Benjie
Nice trades mate, but why do you close if you think the down side is more probable....
Did you read...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...61#post6388961

See, this is what I talk about nowadays. Gotta keep in mind that PA is manipulated by SM, and at any time the environment can change. There are environments within environments. SM can be bear (which I believe it is), but still be looking to put on a nice bull move. Why? It should be obvious. A bull move can entice more longs in. The more longs that come in, the more SM exhausts the pending supply of longs, the better it's mark down phase will go! So, SM might be prepping for a bull move. Part of the prepping is to try and exhaust the pending supply of shorts, so they won't interfere with the bull move. It is like a chess game. Don't do that, until first doing this. But, before doing this, do something else!

To keep your trades going along with the pros, you gotta think convoluted, like a thief planning a heist!

Then too, we have the USD high impact Unemployment Claims release coming later. I don't trade news. There is the always lurking danger of sudden, extreme whipsawing (a SL nightmare), made even more dangerous if it ends with price going further against the trade (if no SL, or catastrohpic one). This was to be a short term trade. I was hoping for more downside before this release. Now it is getting closer to news time and I don't like the PA. I think I am better off just taking profits here, clearing my head and my charts, and resetting for a new analysis after more PA comes in.
  • #43,304
  • Jan 23, 2013 7:29pm Jan 23, 2013 7:29pm
AU: Entered long. Scout, with PA down on S&R. A good move for asian session, so a retrace is likely. Intended as a short term trade, to be out before USD release.
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  • #43,305
  • Jan 23, 2013 7:54pm Jan 23, 2013 7:54pm
GU: Entered long. Scout, with PA down in S&R area. To be a short term trade, out before USD release.
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  • #43,306
  • Edited 9:40pm Jan 23, 2013 9:10pm | Edited 9:40pm
Quoting bank stain
Haha no issue with FF. Just back in the day you couldn't say a word of friendly fire without being kicked off! Surprised that you haven't got in trouble for some of your posts yet!
Perhaps it's just a much more popular place nowadays then when I used to post.
No I've not worked professionally in this industry, self taught. My profession is business management for a large coorporation.
To be honest I don't tend to intraday trade much anymore as I don't have the time (something I'm thinking about changing). I do a few day trades from time to time...
I guess I do get pretty close to the line sometimes. For example, a short while back I saw a price spike on the FXCM server/platform that didn't exist with other brokers. I stated it was possible FXCM ran a SL hunt against their own clients. Got a hasty reply post from the dude that FXCM has scouting FF for negative comments about FXCM, commenting only on FXCM's non-dealing desk relationship with their liquidity provider, low spreads, fast executions, etc., etc. I had to reply to the reply, reminding that person that indeed FXCM does have a dealing desk. The spike was there, on the FXCM server, whether he wanted to discuss it or not. Geez!

But I do believe that Forex Factory has matured a whole lot over the years. Frankly, I sense a good morality here. Some folks want to talk about, and describe the market for what it really is. And I think Forex Factory has a morality that has become aligned with that. So, unless folks blatantly fabricate bold faced lies, or engage in excessive crudeness, Forex Factory seems supportive of letting out the truth.

And maybe we have folks at FF, Twee and others like him, to thank for that.

-tah
  • #43,307
  • Jan 23, 2013 9:17pm Jan 23, 2013 9:17pm
Quite a bit of movement going on for the Asian session concerning the AU making it interesting to be at my computer this late
  • #43,308
  • Jan 24, 2013 12:10am Jan 24, 2013 12:10am
Quoting traderathome
AU: Entered long. Scout, with PA down on S&R. A good move for asian session, so a retrace is likely. Intended as a short term trade, to be out before USD release.
AU: Manually closed for 5 pips loss, EP1 to TP2.
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  • #43,309
  • Jan 24, 2013 12:11am Jan 24, 2013 12:11am
Quoting traderathome
GU: Entered long. Scout, with PA down in S&R area. To be a short term trade, out before USD release.
GU: Manually closed for 11 pips gain, EP1 to TP2. A counter-trend trade with too greedy a target. And I did not monitor the trade well.
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  • #43,310
  • Jan 24, 2013 12:27am Jan 24, 2013 12:27am
EU Comment:

About half hour until FO, which kicks off increased trading in the market, though sometimes with head fake moves. Could see a head fake move down, precursor to a true move up. Or could see a fake move up, precursor to a true move down. Or, no head fake at all, just the start of a true move. One thing is certain, with Dragon and Trend together, whichever way the true move goes, PA will immediately be above both!

The Dragon is very flat. Gee, I hope that it doesn't die and the market withdraws this currency pair from trading!
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  • #43,311
  • Jan 24, 2013 12:32am Jan 24, 2013 12:32am
EU: Entered long. Pre-LS and flat dragon, but everything else is a go. (Of course, that's enough to kill it right there.)
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  • #43,312
  • Edited 12:56am Jan 24, 2013 12:41am | Edited 12:56am
GU: Entered long. TP tentative.

Edit: Added second trade, updated chart.
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  • #43,313
  • Jan 24, 2013 1:01am Jan 24, 2013 1:01am
Quoting traderathome
EU: Entered long. Pre-LS and flat dragon, but everything else is a go. (Of course, that's enough to kill it right there.)
EU: Manually closed for 22 pips gain, EP1 to TP2.
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  • #43,314
  • Jan 24, 2013 1:13am Jan 24, 2013 1:13am
AU: Entered long. Not best of setups. I'm "reaching" on this one. And TP is tentative, is optimistic. Short term trade. I view PA as consolidating for a move up. Especially as PA just returned to and bounced off a base support. But the consolidation could be for a move back down thru the base.
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  • #43,315
  • Jan 24, 2013 1:42am Jan 24, 2013 1:42am
EU:

Here is a possibility. In conjunction with LO, the price pulls back further, to the top of PA wave leg#1 for a re-entry long.
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  • #43,316
  • Jan 24, 2013 1:54am Jan 24, 2013 1:54am
Quoting traderathome
EU:

Here is a possibility. In conjunction with LO, the price pulls back further, to the top of PA wave leg#1 for a re-entry long.
Lol, you seem to be trading more during the Asian session than during the LS..
  • #43,317
  • Jan 24, 2013 1:57am Jan 24, 2013 1:57am
Quoting traderathome
AU: Entered long. Not best of setups. I'm "reaching" on this one. And TP is tentative, is optimistic. Short term trade. I view PA as consolidating for a move up. Especially as PA just returned to and bounced off a base support. But the consolidation could be for a move back down thru the base.
AU: Entered short. Second entry and more of a Scout. Normal for mkt. to pull back around LO time, so still this could pop up for a decent run before the USD release. SL mental.
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  • #43,318
  • Jan 24, 2013 2:10am Jan 24, 2013 2:10am
Market Comment:

Observe that on some pairs (AU, EU, GU...) SM is whipping prices low. But volume comes in at the lows.

Speculation: The SM bastards are running stops on longs and triggering pending short orders. This is to create liquidity to add longs. We could have a day of whopping swings, with this swing down to grab longs, then a swing up before the USD release to vacate the longs and get short for the USD release. And then a swing back down (the honest LT direction) to start building profits, maybe on extended movement down going on into next week! Repeat, this is just speculation based on price-volume.

I've kept my SLs mental, so things are hanging out right now. We'll see. But, once again the market reminds why it is best to not enter trades until after the LS begins! (My bad.)
  • #43,319
  • Jan 24, 2013 2:24am Jan 24, 2013 2:24am
EU: Entered two longs. The first had been set up as a pending order at 1.3324 per previous EU posting. But then SM torpedoed the price and high volume came in at the bottom. So the second long entry is a Scout. My trade SLs are mental (unless stated otherwise), which is my normal, or customary way.
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  • #43,320
  • Edited 3:09am Jan 24, 2013 2:36am | Edited 3:09am
Quoting traderathome
Market Comment:

Observe that on some pairs (AU, EU, GU...) SM is whipping prices low. But volume comes in at the lows.

Speculation: The SM bastards are running stops on longs and triggering pending short orders. This is to create liquidity to add longs. We could have a day of whopping swings, with this swing down to grab longs, then a swing up before the USD release to vacate the longs and get short for the USD release. And then a swing back down (the honest LT direction) to start building profits, maybe on extended movement down going...
Market Comment (Cont'd):

If this wasn't serious business, it would be comical.

Told 'cha!

Don't know if price will be run higher and longs switched for shorts at top before the USD release, or if price will be kept around here while SM continues to collect longs, and then run prices up after the release. Then maybe take a few days to convert to shorts and then wack the price. One thing is for sure. SM did not do all this price manipulation to build a position without the intention of a later move to make profits. So, the question is, is SM building long or short. Based on biggest volumes at lowest prices thru the day so far, it looks like SM is building long.

As an example, look at EU M1. See how SM drove the price down, traded heavily at the bottom, then drove the price back up? Do you think they were buyers or sellers during all that trading at the bottom? It looks like a testing move, testing supply (size of pending shorts), triggering them into the market (greed: shorts see price dropping and jump in). SM took the buying side of those shorts entering the market. Cleaned them out. Better down there than after SM puts on the Mark Up move. This way, SM took the buying side at nice low prices for their new longs. Now SM won't have to absorb those shorts later at higher prices, during the Mark Up move. My take, anyway, based on PVA (price-volume analysis).
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