Elliott wave outlook

é cosí

hi carlos trying to follow your explanation on eur/usd ,you have long term trade yes also any veiws on gbp/usd and gbp/chf i am uk and only trade few dollars still working

Guys read tony Scott posts 65,287. Very interesting.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...99#post6388799

eur/jpy breaking out of its downtrend for a bar here.

GU could be a new low before rally

Ty G very interesting. So my entry at 1.3170 is not bad i think

Hey Luis how r u doing buddy.

HI SS fine ty, just come from the movie theater

The yen move today doesnt confirm a beginning of a rally yet

Hi Luis

eur/yen seems pretty strong

don't want miss the up move

$GBPJPY 4hr finding support @ .382 retrace of waves ((i))-((iii)) & wave (iv) of lesser degree https://www.tradingview.com/x/WdzysN4F/

$EURJPY 4hr finding channel support and y=w https://www.tradingview.com/x/9baLYo0L/

Gray, i posted the Y=W yesterday (twice!)

Just to highlight what Gray said above, this is what anyone studying EW must learn, the 38.2% retrace for 4th waves, yes it can still go lower, but in all probability, the correction is over. In any case, you should always get a decent reaction off of this level;

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...ry24-01-13.png

and once more, (why not?!);

The Ej 'Y'=100% of 'W'; (sorry i labeled ABC!)

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...y23-01-13b.png

So, finished or not?!

OOPS, you sure did...well done . Did ya get long?

Hold on, i'm gonna have to edit the above... Gray i'm not sure i like that count. Hold on will do a little bit more on it, but i think its the 70.7% level (not 61.8%... (38.2% retrace)... (which might mean lower yet...) I also don't like that Y of Gbpjpy has not hit a fib level of W...

Nah mate, to be honest, i've been utterly slaughtered by this complex. I thought i was finally good enough to conquer them, but in reality, i lacked the discipline req'd.

I'm gonna simply leave them alone in future. Plenty of pips to be made during impulse moves and (as you well know), we need a 5w/3w, that is both easy to read and also breaks the last LH with its peak to confirm. Only then will we have a HH/HL combo...

Until then, it can easily trick you into thinking its done and dusted. I will concede (my own words above), that you can pick these fib levels for at least a good reaction, but like i said, i've been turned inside out recently, so decided to go back to being a bit stricter!

If i had played without stops the last couple of weeks, i would have cleaned up, but i can't play that way anymore. I simply can't take a trade without putting the stop in the perceived position. The problem is with complex moves, is that it tricks you constantly, so it makes it ten times worse... you will likely get stopped out by a handful of pips, cos of a mistaken count, only to watch it roar off without you in the original direction of your trade shortly after! I got a bit tired of it last few days! I have called most direction changes quite well recently, but either can't find a way to get onboard, or like i say, one slight miscount and its stop out by 3/4/5/10 pips and then miss the 60/70 originally planned. Of course, it sounds like i need to give stops some room, but that's not the point is it? If you think a minor 5w up and 3 back is a 5-3 with 5 more to come, your stop is a pip below the low (or high if shorting), so how can you casually 'give it room to breathe?!'

Ok, i'm not convinced this corrective moves are finished yet, so will do a little studying...

YEP, complex corrections will get you every time. Win it on the way up and loose it trying to trade in the complex correction that follows the up move

I am not convinced that the corrections are all finished yet either could be another leg down yet who knows at this point. Nice reaction just then on EJ at the .618 retrace of y

Yes mate, better to take a couple weeks off and do something less tiring!

Anyway, here we go, i think tradingview have a slightly wrong count (as is my above GbpJpy chart). It matters little, cos i like the look of the correction bouncing off of the 70.7% level. It appears very very common level for 4th waves when the 3rd was extended. It does of course, however, leave that nagging question about the 61.8% level (38.2% retrace). Anyway, here you will see what i mean. I feel it is already too big a correction to be a sub move, therefore we must draw our fibs from the start of the whole move (if this is a 3rd). Looking at the daily, there are a couple possibilities, so nothing is in stone, but i prefer this count;

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...y24-01-13a.png

How many times do we see this?! The 70.7% if its a full 4th, or the 61.8% level, if its a further subwave...