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Elliott wave outlook

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  • #5,981
  • Jan 22, 2013 4:25am Jan 22, 2013 4:25am
Quoting The Cableguy
With 'A' being a complex WXY minor, i see this as becoming a more complex larger Y wave, still a few too many options and will look for small 'c's as per overall complex corrective trading plan!
looks like i have alot of reading to do about the wave this weekend. =)
  • #5,982
  • Jan 22, 2013 4:36am Jan 22, 2013 4:36am
e/j

4 maybe in place

target now lower then A

I'll Sell when price is heading to Hell
  • #5,983
  • Jan 22, 2013 4:55am Jan 22, 2013 4:55am
Its fair to say the lack of the reflex point being broken as i said before has screwed me up as to nailing this.
I think 'A' was complex, so i don't want to label this as a 5w 'C'. Instead we have a WXY, so it is again a complex wave. This means it is free to do literally whatever combination it wants...

One example;

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...y22-01-13c.png

The next clue could be in PA itself. A 3rd wave should be pretty vicious, so if it drops again like it did this morning, we can probably expect 13k maybe 13,050 area. Either way, it will mean another big move up to come at some stage yet...
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  • #5,984
  • Jan 22, 2013 4:59am Jan 22, 2013 4:59am
Quoting xfatboi
looks like i have alot of reading to do about the wave this weekend. =)

Good luck
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  • #5,985
  • Jan 22, 2013 5:19am Jan 22, 2013 5:19am
Hoping everyone who had profit on the table banked it earlier. Not happy with earlier counts. Looks more abc for EJ with 'C' = 138.2% of wave 'A' (from drop this morning). Market has a habit of doing very vicious, fast c waves to end each abc cycle and makes it very very difficult to label or see the subwave iv within its 5w...
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  • #5,986
  • Jan 22, 2013 5:25am Jan 22, 2013 5:25am
Quoting The Cableguy
Ej is different and is in 'C' (current 4th);

Wave 3 = 138.2% of wave 1.

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...y22-01-13a.png

thise is no longer wave 4 (its over lapping on my screen!)


so what is it? and were are we going from here?


Iam just A pips on the rode :nerd:
  • #5,987
  • Jan 22, 2013 5:38am Jan 22, 2013 5:38am
Quoting -er-
thise is no longer wave 4 (its over lapping on my screen!)


so what is it? and were are we going from here?


WTF moment .......
  • #5,988
  • Jan 22, 2013 5:41am Jan 22, 2013 5:41am
Quoting -er-
thise is no longer wave 4 (its over lapping on my screen!)


so what is it? and were are we going from here?



Hi -er-

Apologies, i tried to explain in my post before yours... its difficult to do without posting a chart each time. The problem with posting on such a forum is that your view changed very quickly with PA as it prints and its difficult to keep updating your charts!

I posted that i see it currently more likely an ABC, with indicated wave 1 = 'A' and 3 = 'C', thus 'C' = 138.2% of wave 'A'

The move up also looked it was in 5w minor, so maybe an 'A' of an 'X' wave... (with B&C to come?).

This is the danger of trying to label any large move in a complex as a 5w, it is more likely a series of smaller abc's (of which you will find countless smaller scale 5w moves for 'c's)
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  • #5,989
  • Jan 22, 2013 5:43am Jan 22, 2013 5:43am
I hope that made sense. To be honest, trading complex correctives is simply dangerous and not really worth the hassle. I don't know about anyone else, but i can't wait for it to finish!
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  • #5,990
  • Jan 22, 2013 5:44am Jan 22, 2013 5:44am
Quoting Sayap111
WTF moment .......
i am short ej ,it was 150 pips in the mony now 40, still holding.
Iam just A pips on the rode :nerd:
  • #5,991
  • Jan 22, 2013 5:54am Jan 22, 2013 5:54am
Quoting The Cableguy
Hi -er-

Apologies, i tried to explain in my post before yours... its difficult to do without posting a chart each time. The problem with posting on such a forum is that your view changed very quickly with PA as it prints and its difficult to keep updating your charts!

I posted that i see it currently more likely an ABC, with indicated wave 1 = 'A' and 3 = 'C', thus 'C' = 138.2% of wave 'A'

The move up also looked it was in 5w minor, so maybe an 'A' of an 'X' wave... (with B&C to come?).

This is the danger of trying to label any large...
i will wait to the end of the day, and than i will take an action (closing position or else)

i am open also on the audcad long, any forecast on that one?

thanks
Iam just A pips on the rode :nerd:
  • #5,992
  • Jan 22, 2013 6:03am Jan 22, 2013 6:03am
Quoting -er-
i am short ej ,it was 150 pips in the mony now 40, still holding.

Hmmmm, its all experience as i said above, during complex moves, holding a large perceived 5w move is tricky, they are seldom what they seem and the whiplashes are often violent.
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  • #5,993
  • Jan 22, 2013 6:05am Jan 22, 2013 6:05am
Ok, just to further explain what i meant earlier by the market managing to hide its wave iv's in really fast 'C' waves of abc's... Hopefully you can see what i mean;


http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...y22-01-13d.png
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  • #5,994
  • Jan 22, 2013 6:07am Jan 22, 2013 6:07am
There is never any gaurantee for any of these charts, but always keep an eye out on the 1min chart to identify a sneaky wave 'iv', when it is moving quickly and don't mistake bigger moves by labeling them 12345, they are far more likely abc and thus you will forever mistake wave 3 for a 'C' wave (like i did earlier!)...
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  • #5,995
  • Jan 22, 2013 6:12am Jan 22, 2013 6:12am
Quoting The Cableguy
There is never any gaurantee for any of these charts, but always keep an eye out on the 1min chart to identify a sneaky wave 'iv', when it is moving quickly and don't mistake bigger moves by labeling them 12345, they are far more likely abc and thus you will forever mistake wave 3 for a 'C' wave (like i did earlier!)...
CG you have no need to explain yourself, I believe you are a sharp mind with a very fast reaction , we are gifted to have people like you ,LC, ND and many more that at least have the knowledge and experience to guide us. I observe with interest any scenario you have and try to get in the right one .Thank you for sharing with us guys.
  • #5,996
  • Jan 22, 2013 6:13am Jan 22, 2013 6:13am
Quoting dopodopo
CG you have no need to explain yourself, I believe you are a sharp mind with a very fast reaction , we are gifted to have people like you ,LC, ND and many more that at least have the knowledge and experience to guide us. I observe with interest any scenario you have and try to get in the right one .Thank you for sharing with us guys.

Much appreciated
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  • #5,997
  • Jan 22, 2013 6:23am Jan 22, 2013 6:23am
is thise possible scenario ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: elliott eur jpy.gif Size: 24 KB
Iam just A pips on the rode :nerd:
  • #5,998
  • Jan 22, 2013 6:45am Jan 22, 2013 6:45am
Definitely poss....

Wave 3 was extended (more than 161.8% of wave 1), so maybe a shallow wave 4, however, if this is the main 4th, even the 23.6% retrace gives us lower still poss...

I know others have labeled the wave 1&2 differently to this, but i like the fact the recent high reaches exactly 200% level at this count...

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...y22-01-13e.png

Again, its just an observation, not a recommendation...
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  • #5,999
  • Jan 22, 2013 6:56am Jan 22, 2013 6:56am
I am looking at 1 m as you suggest .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: elliott eur jpy m1 -1.gif Size: 23 KB
Iam just A pips on the rode :nerd:
  • #6,000
  • Jan 22, 2013 7:05am Jan 22, 2013 7:05am
Hello Guys

It's still possible that for EU & EJ in the shorter term are in triangles. EJ a running triangle with wave C complete and working on D and EU a normal contracting also with wave C complete. If 1.3265 for EU and 117.275 for EJ is breached to the downside both ideas are invalid.
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