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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #32,821
  • Jan 20, 2013 6:44pm Jan 20, 2013 6:44pm
Are you guys really wanna bet on the "pull back" even if you know it will definitely rise?

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Just one suggestion, if you really wanna do so, it's better to try gbp/jpy or eur/jpy...
  • #32,822
  • Jan 20, 2013 7:48pm Jan 20, 2013 7:48pm
Why dont you post something useful (maybe with a chart or so) ?
And stop making predictions without substance. Here are people who really believe whats posted.

FYI. My Broker shows 89.54 at the moment and i went short at 90.20
after we touched the 161 % Fib. Expansion and did not manage it to break it.

See my last chart.

Well, my (little) pull back happened.

Now im out with 60 pips will wait hour or two to see if another short is possible and if not im the first who scream long.

So why fighting about long or short. Take what is served.
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  • #32,823
  • Jan 20, 2013 8:28pm Jan 20, 2013 8:28pm
Sadly ive made only a H4 screen cap at Friday.
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  • #32,824
  • Jan 20, 2013 8:29pm Jan 20, 2013 8:29pm
And thats how it is looks now. H1

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  • #32,825
  • Jan 20, 2013 8:33pm Jan 20, 2013 8:33pm
And even in M5 amazing to see the accuracy. Thank you Mr. Fibonacci..
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Click to Enlarge Name: usd jpy m5 expansion.gif Size: 37 KB
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  • #32,826
  • Jan 20, 2013 11:02pm Jan 20, 2013 11:02pm
Quoting Prodix86
It will keeping up without fall? Up to which level? Or pullback to which level for buying?
- From what I see in front of me:

- Reload long @ 88.95 or 88.32 - stops depend on your money management.

- Sell limit @ 92.35 with 30 pips stop.

- Know that the affect of 90.24 is huge, so for the worst case scenario we could see 87.77 then 86.85

- Regards.
  • #32,827
  • Jan 20, 2013 11:23pm Jan 20, 2013 11:23pm
Thanks. Finally something interesting.

Edit: "Sell limit @ 92.35"

thought about 92.50
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  • #32,828
  • Jan 20, 2013 11:42pm Jan 20, 2013 11:42pm
Quoting Toranaga
Thanks. Finally something interesting.

Edit: "Sell limit @ 92.35"

thought about 92.50
- If we all trade the round numbers.

- So, we all going to sell at 92.50 then who is going to lose???

- Cheers.
  • #32,829
  • Jan 21, 2013 12:40am Jan 21, 2013 12:40am
Hä, what are you talking about ?

Not matter, dont want to know it.

-Cheers
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  • #32,830
  • Jan 21, 2013 1:45am Jan 21, 2013 1:45am
Quoting Toranaga
Hä, what are you talking about ?

Not matter, dont want to know it.

-Cheers
- OK, I'm with you on that.
  • #32,831
  • Jan 21, 2013 12:19pm Jan 21, 2013 12:19pm
I think price could gravitate towards 90.18.

1H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1husdjpy.png Size: 26 KB
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #32,832
  • Jan 21, 2013 1:41pm Jan 21, 2013 1:41pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
I think price could gravitate towards 90.18.

1H


90.18 is only ~43 pips away. the BOJ statement could easily drive it well above that.
  • #32,833
  • Jan 21, 2013 2:30pm Jan 21, 2013 2:30pm
Yes, but on the other side very few people expected what happened yesterday,
but it happened and afterwards it was easy to see that..

Whats if it climbs from now to 90.20 till BOJ and then jumps over the cliff back to 88.00 because of the fantastic BOJ news (for Japan)..

Or whats if it goes sideways till BOJ then news jump to 91.00 and then big sell off back to 88.00

Or it simply continues to 195.00 because the $$ is such a strong currency and deserve it
and we all want it and would be the easiest way..

So coulda woulda and shoulda aren't the best advisors in Forex market.
Dont get trapped with the hype, best way to loose money..
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  • #32,834
  • Jan 21, 2013 2:34pm Jan 21, 2013 2:34pm
Quoting Toranaga
Yes, but on the other side very few people expected what happened yesterday,
but it happened and afterwards it was easy to see that..

..

what are you referring to?
  • #32,835
  • Jan 21, 2013 3:45pm Jan 21, 2013 3:45pm
The plunge from 90.27 to 89.35

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...04#post6380304

I read the whole weekend about $/Y.
Considering what was written from the well payed 'analysts', we should now be somewhere around 92.00
happily waiting for BOJ only to get even more.

But at the moment, we are still lurking about 89.50 and the same Internet Sites now have
a another opinion after hyping the last days..

So we can see a 92.00 tomorrow but we also can see a nice sell of.
With smart money management and nice SL setting it could be worth a bet, but its not so easy as some people suggest..

Again i dont say, it will NOT go to 92 but to insist that it will be so only because it was till now,
and there is a feeling that it will be so has nothing to do with trading.

And, btw. i dont care if 88 or 92. I try to catch the pre movement
like i done it yesterday..

No one clear in mind would go now short or long in D1 time frame..
Its about taking the dips and spikes..
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  • #32,836
  • Edited 4:12pm Jan 21, 2013 4:03pm | Edited 4:12pm
Quoting Toranaga
The plunge from 90.27 to 89.35...

...So we can see a 92.00 tomorrow but we also can see a nice sell of.
With smart money management and nice SL setting it could be worth a bet, but its not so easy as some people suggest..

Again i dont say, it will NOT go to 92 but to insist that it will be so only because it was till now,
and there is a feeling that it will be so has nothing to do with trading.


oh, okay. actually i caught a big chunk of that move (even a blind squirrel...). lately, weekend news in that pair has gotten some traders all excited... i expected a big bunch of eager beavers would get spanked and went s when it fell through the tl from last fri

but i wonder about all this oversold talk w/the underlying realities:

senakaku islands ==> loss of 1/5 export volume
rapidly falling GDP
building investment pattern of purchasing western assets
staggering debt burden
and above all: japan has shown a WILL like never b4 to weaken the currency
  • #32,837
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:24pm Jan 21, 2013 10:24pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
I think price could gravitate towards 90.18.

1H

Just a few pips shy. 88.6 now?

1H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1husdjpy.png Size: 14 KB
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  • #32,838
  • Jan 21, 2013 10:53pm Jan 21, 2013 10:53pm
Hi there im newbie. I recently "jump the gun" with how soon i enter the market with a long position. U guess tonight i learnt a very important lesson on waiting a few mins even hr or more after an important news feed! I guess with the excitement and all I was fearless till the market turn around with the Huge candle! Im live trading but with a capital i am not afraid of totally losing.

Oh just to clarify on what move i made. based on the recent news events i came to the conclusion that the UJ is going th buy.<<< Am i wrong? if so please let me know why or where i went wrong.
  • #32,839
  • Jan 21, 2013 11:45pm Jan 21, 2013 11:45pm
Just to clarify, I think everyone is being subjected to the trading phenomenon known as buy the rumour sell the fact. It had a tough time trying to overcome 90 so I think we might be installed for a deeper retracement before another assault on 90 occurs. There is a longer term trendline on the daily chart that might come into play however I am short for the time being.
  • #32,840
  • Jan 22, 2013 12:03am Jan 22, 2013 12:03am
Playing this hourly inside bar. Stop at 89.30. 4HR chart saying sell. Going against the weekly/monthly hindsights however. Checking back in 1 hour.

Left is 1HR. Right is 4HR.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.22.13 USDJPY.png Size: 40 KB
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