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Trading Made Simple for Day Charts

  • #1,181
  • Jan 17, 2013 12:08am Jan 17, 2013 12:08am
Looks like the JPY pull back is just a pause - will the trend continue?

This was a 380 pip pull back, so watch the PA, TDI and the Fractals on day and H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur jpy day 1-16-2013.gif Size: 31 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #1,182
  • Jan 17, 2013 1:50am Jan 17, 2013 1:50am
Quoting Britpip7
Looks like the JPY pull back is just a pause - will the trend continue?

This was a 380 pip pull back, so watch the PA, TDI and the Fractals on day and H4
Price has not managed to close below the Monthly R1 so far amd narrowing of teh TDI bands signal some consolidation in progress..
Looking ripe for a bounce...
  • #1,183
  • Jan 17, 2013 12:12pm Jan 17, 2013 12:12pm
TDI / PA Divergence on some of the JPY pairs so caution on day chart entries - possibly drop down to H4 and look for possibilities.

I would suggest waiting for a clear Fractal Break aor a reversal off of any Supply Zones in play
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chf jpy day 1-17-2013.gif Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chf jpy h4 1-17-2013.gif Size: 36 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #1,184
  • Jan 17, 2013 12:37pm Jan 17, 2013 12:37pm
GBP/AUD

I still would not rule this out for a run south. I am waiting for a candle close below the Fractal Low. TDI well into the 32 zone, so this is a good time to review this pair's history - what does PA generally do when TDI hit 32? In many cases there is a pause / retrace and then you will see another continuation which can be several hundred pips. There are also the cases where there is a reversal which holds.

The biggest risk here is a spike lower, breaking the fractal low which ten reverses and becomes a pin bar which triggers your pending short sell stop.

Let the PA confirm this one - TDI is only telling you that it is oversold but there can still be further moves south.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp aud day 1-17-2013.gif Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp aud tdi 32 zone history.gif Size: 58 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #1,185
  • Jan 17, 2013 12:54pm Jan 17, 2013 12:54pm
My new 4H TF started at 11:00a.m. us/ct - shorted the $/Cad @.9852. I don't like particularly this 4 hr segment as volitility drops off but the setup looked good and I'm in - like a marriage, for better or worse.
  • #1,186
  • Jan 17, 2013 1:09pm Jan 17, 2013 1:09pm
Quoting piprac
My new 4H TF started at 11:00a.m. us/ct - shorted the $/Cad @.9852. I don't like particularly this 4 hr segment as volitility drops off but the setup looked good and I'm in - like a marriage, for better or worse.
Good luck

Lots of pending resistance coming in the next 25 pips or so
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd cad h4 1-17-2013.gif Size: 36 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #1,187
  • Jan 17, 2013 2:47pm Jan 17, 2013 2:47pm
Yes, fractal dots all over the place but the entry seems clear cut even if profit is small. And right now price just sits, no liquidity.
Quoting Britpip7
Good luck

Lots of pending resistance coming in the next 25 pips or so
  • #1,188
  • Jan 17, 2013 4:48pm Jan 17, 2013 4:48pm
Quoting Britpip7
GBP/AUD

I still would not rule this out for a run south. I am waiting for a candle close below the Fractal Low. TDI well into the 32 zone, so this is a good time to review this pair's history - what does PA generally do when TDI hit 32? In many cases there is a pause / retrace and then you will see another continuation which can be several hundred pips. There are also the cases where there is a reversal which holds.

The biggest risk here is a spike lower, breaking the fractal low which ten reverses and becomes a pin bar which triggers...
Looking at a comparison with the eurgbp and the gbpusd, the Pound looks very weak. Given the Oz is relatively strong that could also indicate a possible southward move?
  • #1,189
  • Jan 17, 2013 5:02pm Jan 17, 2013 5:02pm
EUR/GBP did have a great move off of the Demand Zone and away from 100/200EMA. Now nearing a Supply Zone.

GBP/USD is hovering on the 200EMA which looks to be offering support, so this may stall a move. Waiting for a candle to break and close below the 200EMA on this one.

Relatively quiet week on the day charts with many pairs ranging.




Quoting Buttonjock
Looking at a comparison with the eurgbp and the gbpusd, the Pound looks very weak. Given the Oz is relatively strong that could also indicate a possible southward move?
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #1,190
  • Jan 17, 2013 9:16pm Jan 17, 2013 9:16pm
the ongoing saga of GPB AUD

Support held, so time to sit back and wait for a close above / below the two horiz lines
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp aud day 1-18-2013.gif Size: 38 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #1,191
  • Jan 17, 2013 10:50pm Jan 17, 2013 10:50pm
Quoting piprac
Yes, fractal dots all over the place but the entry seems clear cut even if profit is small. And right now price just sits, no liquidity.
I tightened my SL and eventually took a small loss. I know that in Big E's original thread, Trading Made Easy, he cautioned about the TDI hooking or curving in the opposite direction and uses that to get out. Not sure how to apply that to 4H & D but it may be worth paying attention to it. piprac
  • #1,192
  • Jan 17, 2013 11:07pm Jan 17, 2013 11:07pm
Quoting piprac
I tightened my SL and eventually took a small loss. I know that in Big E's original thread, Trading Made Easy, he cautioned about the TDI hooking or curving in the opposite direction and uses that to get out. Not sure how to apply that to 4H & D but it may be worth paying attention to it. piprac
This pair is in a 60pip range on H4 - not the easiest trading scenario - probably a good exit!
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #1,193
  • Jan 18, 2013 7:06am Jan 18, 2013 7:06am
Just entered short the E/$ @ 1.32210 with a short TP @1.32700 on the 4H. It is against trend on 4H and D but I am thinking this could pullback to S. and then possibly reverse again to go with the trend. I have a very small exposure with this trade. I will monitor it hourly as it is Friday!
  • #1,194
  • Jan 19, 2013 9:39pm Jan 19, 2013 9:39pm
Not much of note happening for the week, either trends stalling and waiting for news, or pairs stuck in channels.

I have a couple of pending trades from Thursday so time will tell. No new entries planned


EU is sitting in a 160pip channel, looking for the breakout to occur higher - trend is still up with the day and H4 TDI mid zone above 50.

GU has broken lower away from the 200EMA, watching this to bounce north off of the Demand Zone.

AU broke the Fractal Low - possible pending sell stop

GBP/AUD finally mabe its mind to head south and break and close below the Fractal Low. Now watching this on H4 for the next pause / fractal low.

GBP/CHF had a huge Friday candle which changed the APB colour. Trend is lower on the day chart.

EUR/CAD still moving higher - Fractal High broken, trend continuing.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu day 1-19-2013.gif Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu day 1-19-2013.gif Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au day 1-19-2013.gif Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp aud day 1-19-2013.gif Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp chf day 1-19-2013.gif Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur cad day 1-19-2013.gif Size: 37 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #1,195
  • Jan 22, 2013 2:02pm Jan 22, 2013 2:02pm
Took a short today on the usdchf. Got a TMS cross, APB colour change, 5 ema cross, ATR @75%+. RSI isn't quite playing ball but is heading down. Currency strength also has usd weaker than chf
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.jpg Size: 165 KB
  • #1,196
  • Jan 22, 2013 3:24pm Jan 22, 2013 3:24pm
Britpip - at one time and possibly in this thread's predecessor you mentioned that because your broker rolled the day over at around 3 or 4 pm (can't remember which) you would sometimes set a stop order for entry as the Asian market was not the best for entries. Do you have a formula, ie X times ATR or a % of ATR, or some other method to determine how far you want the price to go before you entry is hit? I suppose it is more art than science but I would like to hear your comments. thanks for the great thread, p.
  • #1,197
  • Jan 22, 2013 4:44pm Jan 22, 2013 4:44pm
Hi
I've been reading thro this thread but I am struggling with your up todate strategy. I have read post 1081 but the strategy is not clear. I would appreciate if somebody could explain or point me to a post.

Thanks
WFX
  • #1,198
  • Jan 22, 2013 10:19pm Jan 22, 2013 10:19pm
Quoting Buttonjock
Took a short today on the usdchf. Got a TMS cross, APB colour change, 5 ema cross, ATR @75%+. RSI isn't quite playing ball but is heading down. Currency strength also has usd weaker than chf
If you go down to the 4H charts..u will see untested Supply zones just above. And everything is really flattening out there.
On the 1D charts you see also a supply zone about 80 pips above. When u see a supply zone close(<100 pips) like this, it is wise to go down TF because lower TF supply zones always appear at level below that.
And we are pretty much on a downtrend since August so odds of breaking through the zones decreases.

Anyway, that's my analysis. I see this pair continuing its drop.
There are major demand zones 200 pips below.
  • #1,199
  • Jan 22, 2013 11:13pm Jan 22, 2013 11:13pm
Quoting piprac
Britpip - at one time and possibly in this thread's predecessor you mentioned that because your broker rolled the day over at around 3 or 4 pm (can't remember which) you would sometimes set a stop order for entry as the Asian market was not the best for entries. Do you have a formula, ie X times ATR or a % of ATR, or some other method to determine how far you want the price to go before you entry is hit? I suppose it is more art than science but I would like to hear your comments. thanks for the great thread, p.
Hi piprac.

Not really a magic formulae, mostly based off of Fractals.

My new Day starts at 4pm PDT and I only get to review the charts at 8pm. If there is a colour change on APB, then I'll look and see where the last Fractal was set - If I like the set up, I'll use the ATR 7 value and set my buy / sell stop about 10% of the ATR 7 value above / below the Fractal.

For example. if the set up is short and the ATR 7 is 100pips, I will set the sell stop 10 pips below the Fractal Low value.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fractal entries.gif Size: 34 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #1,200
  • Jan 23, 2013 11:09pm Jan 23, 2013 11:09pm
I had not looked at eur/chf for weeks, so this was a fortunate hit on the day chart.

Following all of the Euro Zone news over the past 2 weeks, the SNB finally allowed the Euro to run. Following a huge candle on the 18th, RSI crossed and was followed by an APB colour change.

TP1 has been hit at 80pips

TP2 is still open and now watching the H4 for Add-On opportunities off of the Fractal Lows / TDI crosses.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur chf current trade 1-23-2012.gif Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur chf h4 1-23-2012.gif Size: 33 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
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