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Elliott wave outlook

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  • #5,641
  • Jan 17, 2013 2:49am Jan 17, 2013 2:49am
Question... 'What makes us try to predict a pattern or target price in advance and post it in public?'

Answer... we all like to try to show that we know what we are doing and thus gain the brownie points...


Unfortunately, the market often makes us look stupid. We are programmed to have a flaw, in that once we see what we perceive, we don't accept any other scenario. This is dangerous. You must always keep more than one scenario in mind.

Personally, i think trading complex correctives is very dangerous and requires masses of discipline. As stated before, i feel only 'C' waves are worthy, but you still need good wave structure to see the end of 'B' and a clear minor 5/3 for your wave 1/2 (of 'C')
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  • #5,642
  • Jan 17, 2013 2:54am Jan 17, 2013 2:54am
Straight away, the current move up is looking far more likely an overall 3-3-5 with us in 'B'. the 50% retrace has been breached and i hate trying to label 4th's that go beyond this. I know it can still do 61.8%, but more often than not it will be a 'B' wave instead...
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  • #5,643
  • Jan 17, 2013 3:14am Jan 17, 2013 3:14am
Of course, the best way is to print a chart of every possible scenario, so that you've covered your ass )


http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...y17-01-13c.png
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  • #5,644
  • Jan 17, 2013 3:51am Jan 17, 2013 3:51am
Does anyone else find it stressful, when you watch a strong move or long fast moving candles and you're not onboard?!
Particularly when you had thought prior, that it had to go in the direction it is now powering along!

I want pips.... i want them all!
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  • #5,645
  • Jan 17, 2013 3:53am Jan 17, 2013 3:53am
Hey LC ! GM ! Bro What Book Would You Consider The Best About EW And The Best Explained ! Hope Not causing You Any Inconvieniane , Regards !
Quoting Luis Carlos
Posted by Luis Carlos
The euro should go to 1.3110. So it is better get long at the correction of that. It could be go down 1.30 first... So I got up and down vias...dont trade...



Dont get it G, but you know what happen after the correction.
  • #5,646
  • Jan 17, 2013 3:59am Jan 17, 2013 3:59am
I think now is the entry TO SHORT for wave C EU and EJ.
  • #5,647
  • Jan 17, 2013 4:22am Jan 17, 2013 4:22am
Apologies for taking over the thread this morning, guess everyone else is sleeping!

Couple possibilities after this mornings PA;

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...y17-01-13d.png

'B' could also become irregular, but i seriously doubt it looking at 'c's wave structure right now.

Also poss, still;

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...y17-01-13e.png
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  • #5,648
  • Jan 17, 2013 4:25am Jan 17, 2013 4:25am
Quoting dopodopo
I think now is the entry TO SHORT for wave C EU and EJ.

Didn't see your post... nice thinking.

Find low risk entry...
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  • #5,649
  • Jan 17, 2013 4:31am Jan 17, 2013 4:31am
Difficult to call if the last pullback was 4th or simply 'iv'th of 3rd. Only complied to 70.7% level of overall 3rd, so a little inconclusive. Personally i don't think we have had the full 4th of C yet...
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  • #5,650
  • Jan 17, 2013 4:43am Jan 17, 2013 4:43am
Quoting The Cableguy
Of course, the best way is to print a chart of every possible scenario, so that you've covered your ass )


http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...y17-01-13c.png
I think traders on this thread know that we are human. I for one always say ' this is what I think is going to happen but I may be wrong' And God know I have been wrong a lot of times. But are we dynamic enough to change our thinking when we are wrong to profit anyway

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,651
  • Jan 17, 2013 4:47am Jan 17, 2013 4:47am
Quoting The Cableguy
Does anyone else find it stressful, when you watch a strong move or long fast moving candles and you're not onboard?!
Particularly when you had thought prior, that it had to go in the direction it is now powering along!

I want pips.... i want them all!
Another scenario. And this happens to me. I am in a strong move and think the move is over, get out and then watch the move go half as much more.

Eg this morning I bought 3302 got out at 3240 now we are still going up and the market is not stopping for breath...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,652
  • Jan 17, 2013 4:55am Jan 17, 2013 4:55am
There are many stresses to overcome in the world of trading. The worst, getting a trade wrong and suffering a loss. Secondly, i believe is the above scenario. It can sometimes be equally stressful or frustrating to miss a large move. The recent C wave on the Euro that took off like a rocket after i had been calling it up for a couple of days prior, went up without me. I was close to tears!

A bit of over-trading has crept into my habits lately and its started to cost me. I am usually prepared to miss loads of PA just to be able to virtually 'gaurantee' a small part... Ok, perhaps 'gaurantee' is a little strong word to use with ref to markets, but, you understand...

I keep saying, its not the pips bagged... its percentages.

A very successful method to trade is 4th wave pullbacks, for the 5th wave.
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  • #5,653
  • Edited 5:27am Jan 17, 2013 5:09am | Edited 5:27am
Have we reached the 161.8% of wave A...?

earlier;

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...y17-01-13c.png

Update;

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...y17-01-13f.png
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  • #5,654
  • Jan 17, 2013 5:30am Jan 17, 2013 5:30am
Quoting The Cableguy
Have we reached the 161.8% of wave A...?

earlier;

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...y17-01-13c.png

Update;

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...y17-01-13f.png
A great series of charts. I am watching the exact same count
  • #5,655
  • Jan 17, 2013 5:35am Jan 17, 2013 5:35am
Thanks Gray )

This current move down looks a bit corrective. I'm hoping at least one of the pairs will print an easy to follow minor 5/3 to get onboard!
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  • #5,656
  • Jan 17, 2013 5:40am Jan 17, 2013 5:40am
Quoting The Cableguy
Thanks Gray )

This current move down looks a bit corrective. I'm hoping at least one of the pairs will print an easy to follow minor 5/3 to get onboard!
We are likely to see one more minor high to take all the stops before downside perhaps?
  • #5,657
  • Jan 17, 2013 5:50am Jan 17, 2013 5:50am
This is why i want to see the minor 5/3 (subwaves i&ii of 1) before committing... We may have just had an irregular 4th.
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  • #5,658
  • Jan 17, 2013 5:57am Jan 17, 2013 5:57am
Quoting The Cableguy
This is why i want to see the minor 5/3 (subwaves i&ii of 1) before committing... We may have just had an irregular 4th.
Exactly!
Don't forget we need the five done past a reflex point ideally per Ramki & FWTFF
  • #5,659
  • Edited 6:18am Jan 17, 2013 6:01am | Edited 6:18am
Aha, we share the same book! Yep exactly!

This is what i was looking at above, very difficult to spot or verify, but if so, we might get an extended wave to follow yet (although, admittedly, i didn't see it tie in with a fib projection from wave 1)...

('b' = 200% of 'a'. 'c' looks likely in 5w)

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...y17-01-13g.png
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  • #5,660
  • Jan 17, 2013 6:13am Jan 17, 2013 6:13am
Guess where the 200% projection of 'a' gets us... Double top anyone?

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...y17-01-13h.png
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