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Sonic R. System

  • #42,921
  • Jan 16, 2013 9:44am Jan 16, 2013 9:44am
Trade update: I left my trade open overnight, and my stop was too tight, price was pushed maybe 10 pips below my stop before it rebounded to the 50 fib. I should have anticipated that LO would push price down to get in better long positions. I have a pretty poor overnight record, so I think I will just stick to screen trading and maybe later down the road work on position trading for longer periods. My long trade was up 25pips and I should have closed at the NY close but hindsight is always sharper than forsight.

Good morning all!

Quoting Mezzy
Okie guys, phase 1 of my trading plan has completed. Moving on to phase 2, looking for longs.
Climactic selling volume has appeared followed by a bullish reaction, in a demand zone aka support zone.

I predict price will most likely stop at the 50 fib, then back down to 61.8 for a test, then upup and away.

Happy trading!


As always my trades are public in my profile.
  • #42,922
  • Jan 16, 2013 10:29am Jan 16, 2013 10:29am
I was wondering if its possible to create an app or indicator that that will display the content of this thread on ones mt4 window just like the ffcal. Hopefully such app will auto refresh as well, that way one will get any new information faster while trading . Alternatively anyone know of any application-possible a desktop gadget that can do the above. i will be grateful with any help.
Know News/time; WAIT for Edge Entries, MPLC Normalization, Exits & TP's..
  • #42,923
  • Jan 16, 2013 10:51am Jan 16, 2013 10:51am
Quoting princefred
I was wondering if its possible to create an app or indicator that that will display the content of this thread on ones mt4 window just like the ffcal. Hopefully such app will auto refresh as well, that way one will get any new information faster while trading . Alternatively anyone know of any application-possible a desktop gadget that can do the above. i will be grateful with any help.
You are right, it should also include a THINK SWITCH, You just think about the thread and it appears due your think command, hopefully.

  • #42,924
  • Jan 16, 2013 10:58am Jan 16, 2013 10:58am
Quoting arasheed
You are right, it should also include a THINK SWITCH, You just think about the thread and it appears due your think command, hopefully.

haha......haaaahaaaa I just can't stop laughing......

On a more serious note, how is everyones setups going?
  • #42,925
  • Jan 16, 2013 1:27pm Jan 16, 2013 1:27pm
EJ long
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  • #42,926
  • Edited 2:53pm Jan 16, 2013 1:45pm | Edited 2:53pm
EU: Here is how I see the recent PA history. Make up your own mind about what SM is doing. For me, I see SM as bears.

Attached are summary views of a market cycle. Wall Street parlance (Wyckoff's pic.) makes their rip-off manipulations of price sound so much more benign!
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  • #42,927
  • Edited 2:14pm Jan 16, 2013 1:57pm | Edited 2:14pm
Quoting Breakaway
Good day

This is my first post in the thread. I have been following as best as i can but i have a very demanding day job.

As per my understanding the attached picture shows how i see a trading potential opertunity on the EU. I would appreciate some input if i have it wrong.

Thank you all very much for all the valuable information that that has been shared here.

Regards
EU:

The early part of the LS often has moves opposite the trend, as SM seeks better pricing to build addtional positions with the trend. You will see this happen often in the US part of the LS, too. So, such moves up as you show could be genuine buying for a further move higher. Or, it could be as I mentioned, just a "liquidity creation" move up to hit stops on shorts and to trigger into the market pending long orders, both of which create liquidity for SM to get it's additional short orders filled as the price moves higher. And if that is the case, then while the price could still go higher, a move down will eventually come. And it will likely be a more substantial move. It is called the "mark down" phase, where SM forces prices down to build up profits on their shorts.

In this case, the next move was down. And it was a stronger move than the move up. There was also a lot of volume at the very highs, before the selloff move back down. This indicates SM remains a Bear. Subsequent PA is ranging now between the resistance at the top of the move up and the support at the bottom of the move back down. This ranging allows SM to move prices up/dn/up/dn while coaxing in longs so SM can continue to take the short side. It is called consolidation. It means SM is further building a position. My guess is the position SM is building is a short position, to be followed eventually by a substantial mark down move. Just my take.
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  • #42,928
  • Jan 16, 2013 3:47pm Jan 16, 2013 3:47pm
UCad: Once again, this continues to demonstrate that SM is a Bull. A breakout of the Accumulation Phase, to begin the Mark Up For Profit Phase, could come at any time.
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  • #42,929
  • Edited 4:20pm Jan 16, 2013 4:01pm | Edited 4:20pm
AU: This has been ranging in the Distribution Phase. The first boxed spikes in the price is a sign SM is a Bear, because there were volume spikes at the highs and because this action was followed by a very bearish run down in the price. Likely then, this current consolidatioin at the highs is also SM closing longs and opening shorts (position building). Note the upcoming AUD releases.

Could this be just another, and higher Accumulation Phase instead of a Distribution Phase? Yes, possibly. However, the relationship between PA and volume indicates SM is a Bear. So this is more likely the Distribution Phase. But even a Bear can push up prices to add to the short position before initiating the Mark Down to create profits. So, prices in this Distribution Phase could continue ranging, and with additional upwards pushes.

The upcoming AUD releases might be a catalyst, one way or the other. They might be the catalyst that starts the Mark Down Phase.
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  • #42,930
  • Edited 5:15pm Jan 16, 2013 4:40pm | Edited 5:15pm
Quoting milou
if some one can tell me if my entry is good?
thank you
EA: Based on the large scale PA wave you show as being used in the setup, then if your entry was at least a few pips below the end of the first candle exiting the Dragon, your EP would have been about 15 pips higher than your actual entry. You apparently used a lower TL to evaluate when to exit. This was conservative of you, and there is nothing wrong with being conservative. In this case, however, being conservative in that manner had you entering right at support. And you can see what happened. Price went back up. The next PA wave was better, tighter and more uniform. And it offered the same EP as the PA wave you traded. However, at that time you might have had more confidence in entering at that price, higher than your earlier entry.
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  • #42,931
  • Jan 16, 2013 5:48pm Jan 16, 2013 5:48pm
EU Technical Analysis

Here's my take on the EU.

Scenario 1: This minor supply/demand zone is a stepping stone for SM to build more long positions. Price will rise. Price looks marked down at the moment and is in accumulation phase, and will mark up soon.

Scenario 2: Minor sup/dem zone is ignored and price will get marked all the way down to major sup/dem zone, then head back up.

Scenario 3: Same as scenario 2 however, price bounces off the sup/dem major for a small gain from automatic support, then torpedo's south breaking the trend.

At this point I'm looking at scenario 2 for my pick, as I think it's a pretty strong trend line in a bullish manner.

Remember, don't have a bias, as TAH says bias is bad. Have a plan, a backup plan, and an exit strategy if things hit the fan. This is my new mindset. Don't be upset if you're wrong, just accept it, cut your losses early, and make a new plan off of the new situation.

This is my plan until it becomes invalid.
(example: my last trade plan bounced off the 50 fib i drew and then failed to rally up like I thought. It's OK that I'm wrong, it just becomes time to make a new plan.)
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  • #42,932
  • Jan 16, 2013 6:26pm Jan 16, 2013 6:26pm
Quoting Mezzy
EU Technical Analysis

Here's my take on the EU.

Scenario 1: This minor supply/demand zone is a stepping stone for SM to build more long positions. Price will rise. Price looks marked down at the moment and is in accumulation phase, and will mark up soon.

Scenario 2: Minor sup/dem zone is ignored and price will get marked all the way down to major sup/dem zone, then head back up.

Scenario 3: Same as scenario 2 however, price bounces off the sup/dem major for a small gain from automatic support, then torpedo's south breaking the trend.

At...
Mezzy, great post! Well thought out plans.

I think SM is a Bear. A Big Bear! A Big Bear covertly foraging! Of course, on any day SM can decide PA to be predominately northward bound, or southward bound; whatever suits their desire and shorter term profit strategy, and regardless of high TF charts and news. So, yes, we Sonicers need to mind what SM is saying about S&R on our trading chart each day. And any day can be contrary to the day before. In the bigger picture though (see Daily), I see that lower TL you use as part of a Bear Wedge. For me, that sort of tarnishes it's Bullish facade.
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  • #42,933
  • Edited 7:01pm Jan 16, 2013 6:34pm | Edited 7:01pm
Quoting Mezzy

Remember, don't have a bias, as TAH says bias is bad. Have a plan, a backup plan, and an exit strategy if things hit the fan. This is my new mindset. Don't be upset if you're wrong, just accept it, cut your losses early, and make a new plan off of the new situation.
i suggest you still continue train to trade live, since you are trading in micro. it helps the psychological aspect of trading as well.

Quoting traderathome
Mezzy, great post! Well thought out plans.

I think SM is a Bear. A Big Bear! A Big Bear covertly foraging! Of course, on any day SM can decide PA to be predominately northward bound, or southward bound; whatever suits their desire and shorter term profit strategy, and regardless of high TF charts and news. So, yes, we Sonicers need to mind what SM is saying about S&R on our trading chart each day. And any day can be contrary to the day before. In the bigger picture though (see Daily), I see that lower TL you use as part of a Bear Wedge. For me, that sort of tarnishes it's Bullish facade.
i was expecting this eu scenario to do your pump and dumb mate, LOL
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  • #42,934
  • Jan 16, 2013 7:09pm Jan 16, 2013 7:09pm
Quoting alrightfrank
i suggest you still continue train to trade live, since you are trading in micro. it helps the psychological aspect of trading as well.

i was expecting this eu scenario to do your pump and dumb mate, LOL
Frank, your meaning is unclear. Anyway, your chart says "failed attempt to break support" regarding PA that has not even gotten down yet to test it! Whats up with that? You should also know that SM will frequently pull back from a SR area they intend to blast thru, the pull back being so it can first load up for the run. Is that what you mean by your reference to a pump and dump, mate?
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  • #42,935
  • Jan 16, 2013 7:20pm Jan 16, 2013 7:20pm
Quoting traderathome
AU: This has been ranging in the Distribution Phase. The first boxed spikes in the price is a sign SM is a Bear, because there were volume spikes at the highs and because this action was followed by a very bearish run down in the price. Likely then, this current consolidatioin at the highs is also SM closing longs and opening shorts (position building). Note the upcoming AUD releases.

Could this be just another, and higher Accumulation Phase instead of a Distribution Phase? Yes, possibly. However, the relationship between PA and volume...
AU: Told 'cha! Seriously, SM has been ranging this for quite some time, as a Bear imho. Distributing. And this is a real strong indication of it. We might get a pull up to take advantage of this short setup today.
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  • #42,936
  • Jan 16, 2013 7:32pm Jan 16, 2013 7:32pm
Quoting traderathome
Frank, your meaning is unclear. Anyway, your chart says "failed attempt to break support" regarding PA that has not even gotten down yet to test it! Whats up with that? You should also know that SM will frequently pull back from a SR area they intend to blast thru, the pull back being so it can first load up for the run. Is that what you mean by your reference to a pump and dump, mate?
i mean the price might jack up again before it dives, but again this is just my analysis of the market, it'll do what it desires...
  • #42,937
  • Jan 16, 2013 7:44pm Jan 16, 2013 7:44pm
EU: Entered short. Scout. To be combined with a previous, lower short entry when exit is made. Both will appear in exit post. Price might not be finished moving up. But, according to the chart, this is a signifiant local SR area. So, on that basis, I made the Scout entry here. It should be labeled "EP2".
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  • #42,938
  • Jan 16, 2013 10:36pm Jan 16, 2013 10:36pm
GU: A SonicR short setup. FO/LO SM might take price up again (usual reason). Maybe not. It becomes a SL management concern. Just got back to computer and saw this. A few pips late, but price might go up again. Consolidation (position building) PA presently, so obviously some in the market are thinking this is as good a price as any. A lot left to go in the day range.
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  • #42,939
  • Edited 10:57pm Jan 16, 2013 10:42pm | Edited 10:57pm
EU: Might be starting another leg down. Very close to support though, and prior to LO. Could be best to ignore, and just wait it out. Could just be ranging now. What will LS SM do? If FO/LS SM execute a pull back to resume shorting, the whole number area looks prime for it. Today, up or down? Lacks sense of direction right now, imho. We need SM to show us.
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  • #42,940
  • Jan 16, 2013 10:57pm Jan 16, 2013 10:57pm
Oh, I'm on demo, I learned a ton from trading live, I just was trying too big too fast. I'm doing well so far with my current rules, and once I achieve my demo goals I will try again with live, only I will continue using the same rules. I will work my way up eventually to full lot sizes but that will come in time, I'm not trying to rush it this time.

Thanks though!

Quoting alrightfrank
i suggest you still continue train to trade live, since you are trading in micro. it helps the psychological aspect of trading as well.



i was expecting this eu scenario to do your pump and dumb mate, LOL
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