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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #65,061
  • Jan 16, 2013 10:51am Jan 16, 2013 10:51am
Looking at charts I can see we hit "temporary" resistance on 50SMA on 1H chart.
I think US session may "reload" sume bullish green bullets and hit even higher, creating nice bullish daily candle on close.
At this moment I partially locked some profits, SL on breakeven...
Que Sera, Sera, What will be, will be...
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Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #65,062
  • Jan 16, 2013 10:57am Jan 16, 2013 10:57am
Quoting rekon67
This pair is surely graduating to the most horrendous pair to trade.
Agreed...this POS isn't as fun as it used to be.
  • #65,063
  • Jan 16, 2013 11:01am Jan 16, 2013 11:01am
Quoting halkins
Looking at charts I can see we hit "temporary" resistance on 50SMA on 1H chart.
I think US session may "reload" sume bullish green bullets and hit even higher, creating nice bullish daily candle on close.
At this moment I partially locked some profits, SL on breakeven...
Que Sera, Sera, What will be, will be...
-

Attachment
Hey buddy how r u
I have closed m longs from 3267 @3304 not looking for longs unless we see a new daily high today .
MMMYYYKKK
  • #65,064
  • Jan 16, 2013 11:36am Jan 16, 2013 11:36am
Quoting myk
Hey buddy how r u
I have closed m longs from 3267 @3304 not looking for longs unless we see a new daily high today .
Hey... How you doing....
Yes. I did finally close all mine, too...
50MA holding strong for now... We'll see how 4H candle close.
I'd love to re-enter LONG watching 1M and 5M charts, but I need to go out, so probably I'd leave this train going without me.
I am still bullish, though can't see any signals to enter now, so I give up until tomorrow. Enough charts for today :nerd:
Good to see you back in business
---
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #65,065
  • Jan 16, 2013 11:52am Jan 16, 2013 11:52am
Quoting halkins
Hey... How you doing....
I'd love to re-enter LONG watching 1M and 5M charts, but I need to go out, so probably I'd leave this train going without me.
I am still bullish, though can't see any signals to enter now, so I give up until tomorrow.
---
Well... I can see first bull-birds falling out of the nest in 1.32800 - 1.32850 area (not confirmed area!!!)
maybe maybe...
Nice combination of FIBO and S/R...
Possible bullish entry for me, when confirmed.
Whatta pity I need to go out Can't check this out...
-
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #65,066
  • Jan 16, 2013 11:54am Jan 16, 2013 11:54am
Quoting halkins
Sure, we will look there, Turtle, but $$$ profit does not tell anything.
The percentage gains is the key, as for me it's a big difference profiting $1000 on 10.000 account and 100.000 account...
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Agreed. to say but $$$ profit does not tell anything. I would respectfully Yes it provides exactly how much $ how much I can take to the bank. Assumes I do not spit it back next week. Ha


All I need to do to satisfy me is meet my objectives cash and pips and goalswhile maintaining a suitable risk reward profile

Is a daily yield of 8 - 9 K on a 100K account while waiting for price movement considered good in this thread?

I cant post now but when I get home I will share Thanks for the comment
.
Trading Consultants Inc JJG
  • #65,067
  • Jan 16, 2013 11:56am Jan 16, 2013 11:56am
EU’s Unemployment Hits Record High! How You Can Play It
by Tom Essaye


At his press conference last week, ECB President Mario Draghi threw cold water on the prospects for rate cuts in Europe any time soon. This followed the ECB decision to keep rates on hold. The rate decision was expected, but the relatively upbeat assessment of the European economy wasn’t ...

Draghi said he expects the European economy to experience a “gradual recovery” starting in late 2013, basically saying that rates and monetary policy is accommodative enough. The surprise assessment of the European economy caught euro shorts by surprise; one-third of economists surveyed prior to the meeting thought they might cut rates. And it ignited a short-covering rally as people didn’t expect something so hawkish.

Interestingly, this hawkish ECB decision comes after three weeks of consistently poor economic data emanating from Europe, highlighted last week by the fact that the unemployment rate across the EU reached a new high of 11.8 percent. More troubling, Spanish unemployment sits at an astonishingly high 26.6 percent, Greek unemployment at 26 percent, 16.3 percent in Portugal, and 14.6 percent in Ireland.

Societies Can’t Exist with 26 Percent Unemployment

These numbers simply aren’t sustainable! And they underscore how essential it is to get the European economy growing again if we are going to see continued improvement in the sovereign crisis.

What’s more, the number is much higher for the youth of those countries. In Spain for example, youth unemployment is a whopping 56 percent. Unless economic growth returns and the unemployment rate begins to drop, at some point the people will revolt against austerity, either through the polls or in the streets. And they’ll elect or install people who tell the rest of Europe to go to fly a kite — which will reignite the crisis.

http://cdn.moneyandmarkets.com/media...513-img-01.jpg
Unemployment in Europe hits new peak. And unless economic growth improves, the worse may be to come.

It won’t happen today or next month. But unless those unemployment numbers start to drop, and the only way that’s happening is through economic growth, then the crisis is far from over.

I point this out to you because the ECB knows this is true. So it’s very surprising that they are so firmly on hold and unwilling to help the European economy, even with very low inflation.

So for the time being, the ECB is on hold. And that is short-term bullish for the euro. But I will reiterate that the strong euro is going to be a drag on growth. And it would be a shame if the ECB, after basically quelling the crisis last year, ignited another one by being “penny wise and pound foolish” with regards to getting the European economy growing again.

One way you could play potential weakness in the euro is via the ProShares Ultra Short Euro (EUO). This ETF is meant to decline 2 percent for every 1 percent decline in the euro.

Best,

Tom
  • #65,068
  • Jan 16, 2013 11:59am Jan 16, 2013 11:59am
Quoting halkins
Hey... How you doing....
Yes. I did finally close all mine, too...
50MA holding strong for now... We'll see how 4H candle close.
I'd love to re-enter LONG watching 1M and 5M charts, but I need to go out, so probably I'd leave this train going without me.
I am still bullish, though can't see any signals to enter now, so I give up until tomorrow. Enough charts for today :nerd:
Good to see you back in business
---
Haha thanks yea took a short around highs will keep it open till tomorrow not expecting much movement today .
I am neutral atm but feels like EJ needs to drop so hence euro should give sm price too
MMMYYYKKK
  • #65,069
  • Jan 16, 2013 12:01pm Jan 16, 2013 12:01pm
For me This PA is "second touch to demand" we had today earlier. So I am long now with 5 lots @ 1.3280 and will buy additional 5 lots 1.3275 and 5 lots 1.3270
as I doubt the "Nasty boys" guys let price drift to the low of the session. Unless a real quick stop hunt.
And then it could break totally ........ PA lets us know


Quoting halkins
Well... I can see first bull-birds falling out of the nest in 1.32800 - 1.32850 area (not confirmed area!!!)
maybe maybe...
Nice combination of FIBO and S/R...
Possible bullish entry for me, when confirmed.
Whatta pity I need to go out Can't check this out...
-
Trading Consultants Inc JJG
  • #65,070
  • Jan 16, 2013 12:11pm Jan 16, 2013 12:11pm
Quoting Turtle Man
For me This PA is "second touch to demand" we had today earlier. So I am long now with 5 lots @ 1.3280 and will buy additional 5 lots 1.3275 and 5 lots 1.3270
as I doubt the "Nasty boys" guys let price drift to the low of the session. Unless a real quick stop hunt.
And then it could break totally ........ PA lets us know

you and me on same track with same lots
Trading by EA
  • #65,071
  • Jan 16, 2013 12:12pm Jan 16, 2013 12:12pm
Quoting Turtle Man
For me This PA is "second touch to demand" we had today earlier. So I am long now with 5 lots @ 1.3280 and will buy additional 5 lots 1.3275 and 5 lots 1.3270
as I doubt the "Nasty boys" guys let price drift to the low of the session. Unless a real quick stop hunt.
And then it could break totally ........ PA lets us know
72 is the no to watch for me
MMMYYYKKK
  • #65,072
  • Jan 16, 2013 12:53pm Jan 16, 2013 12:53pm
Quoting PipTrapper
That's a very tough call Rekon. Anything is possible, but let's be realistic for a minute and ask a simple question. What would a 1.40 E/U do for the German exporters?
and what will it do to US export? i feel like i am looking at half full/half empty glass.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #65,073
  • Edited 1:09pm Jan 16, 2013 12:55pm | Edited 1:09pm
Quoting Turtle Man
For me This PA is "second touch to demand" we had today earlier. So I am long now with 5 lots @ 1.3280 and will buy additional 5 lots 1.3275 and 5 lots 1.3270
as I doubt the "Nasty boys" guys let price drift to the low of the session. Unless a real quick stop hunt.
And then it could break totally ........ PA lets us know
Is this demo trading you are referring to? I'm curious to learn more about your supply / demand trading. If you could point me in the right direction it would be appreciated.

I took a look at your profile but not sure which account you are referring to.
  • #65,074
  • Jan 16, 2013 2:59pm Jan 16, 2013 2:59pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Is this demo trading you are referring to? I'm curious to learn more about your supply / demand trading. If you could point me in the right direction it would be appreciated.

I took a look at your profile but not sure which account you are referring to.

seriously,100pips,dont take the eye off the ball.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #65,075
  • Jan 16, 2013 3:11pm Jan 16, 2013 3:11pm
Quoting drzakir123

seriously,100pips,dont take the eye off the ball.
I have a pretty solid swing trading system but would like to learn a little more about scalping. Would be nice to make some intraday profits every once in a while.

Just not sure if I can handle the additional stress...

The biggest problem with analyzing results from "scalping" on a demo account is that the slippage will eat away most of the profits. So if these trades are at least 20 pips profit there might be something in it. If anything less than 20 pips per trade then it is a waste of time in my opinion.
  • #65,076
  • Jan 16, 2013 3:36pm Jan 16, 2013 3:36pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
I have a pretty solid swing trading system but would like to learn a little more about scalping. Would be nice to make some intraday profits every once in a while.

Just not sure if I can handle the additional stress...

The biggest problem with analyzing results from "scalping" on a demo account is that the slippage will eat away most of the profits. So if these trades are at least 20 pips profit there might be something in it. If anything less than 20 pips per trade then it is a waste of time in my opinion.
its all smoke and mirror.see u already have a solid system and its works for u and if its making money for u then stick with it and improvise it more,make it more subtle and refine,there is lot of work to do,u see.if u deviate from it,it will make ur mind more messy and confuse and u will lose ur feel for the price,which is not worth.the most improtant in my opinion is timeframe u feel most comfortable in.and once u know it then its ur position size and keep repeating the same thing and then smell roses.regards

ps;sorry if i giving the impression of patronising u or anyone.english is not my first language and sometime i have problem with my own mother tongue as well lol
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #65,077
  • Jan 16, 2013 3:54pm Jan 16, 2013 3:54pm
Quoting drzakir123
its all smoke and mirror.see u already have a solid system and its works for u and if its making money for u then stick with it and improvise it more,make it more subtle and refine,there is lot of work to do,u see.if u deviate from it,it will make ur mind more messy and confuse and u will lose ur feel for the price,which is not worth.the most improtant in my opinion is timeframe u feel most comfortable in.and once u know it then its ur position size and keep repeating the same thing and then smell roses.regards

ps;sorry if i giving the impression...
Thank you for the words of advice Doc! It is appreciated and you are probably right...

I tend to enjoy trading off of the Daily charts and there is always room for improvement!
  • #65,078
  • Jan 16, 2013 10:45pm Jan 16, 2013 10:45pm
IMPORTANT

Germany Reacts To The Retiring Treasury Secretary’s Parting Shot


January 16, 2013, at 1:05 pm

by Jim Sinclair in the category General Editorial |

My Dear Friends,
I respectfully disagree with most of the explanations given today on the why of German actions in gold. My understanding is that the causal event of this notification actually came from the actions of the US Exchange Stabilization Fund and the long term plans to strengthen the euro.
I have published a chart from Patrick showing the extreme change in the ratio of gold to fiat currency presently being held in reserve by Euroland.
First you need to understand what the Exchange Stabilization Fund is and is not. It is an account at a major gold bank in the name of the Exchange Stabilization Fund. This fund can legally trade in gold and does. The President of the USA and the Secretary of the US Treasury run this fund. Those two managers by law are permitted to designate another manager if they wish. The fund can trade long or short, borrow or lend anything. Basically this is a an account that can legally do anything it wants whenever it wants in secret as the year end statement can easily be brought to only benign activates by warehousing all the trades.

Their broker is quite an expert in that strategy to wash year-end positions for clients.

What occurred as I am told is an act in Germany in reaction to a parting shot from the retiring Secretary of the US Treasury via the Exchange Stabilization Fund.

When gold traded at $1918 it was setting up for a challenge of a very important round number, $2000. The sell off was a product of long liquidation in an anticipation of $2000 in a fast market. Gold did fall on its own weight into the $1800 area, however the body block at $1800, $1775 and $1750 was a product of the Exchange Stabilization Fund operating as an account of a major Gold Bank. Seeing that, this gold bank went to the short side for the account of its hedge funds and not wholly owned trading arm. This gold bank issued a public statement that the gold market was dead as a doornail, finished and completed.

On the level of central banking there are no secrets. The long term plan for the currency war between the euro and the dollar is a derivation of the Free Gold Thesis. That means a significant change in the percentage of fiat currency versus gold at market value held by Euroland as reserves. This thesis has a target for cooperating Asian central banks for gold holdings at no less than 15% at market value. I question some of the thesis of Free Gold thinkers, but much of it has been in my writing for more than a decade on what the end game recovery will look like.

I am told that the parting shot to break gold’s back by the Exchange Stabilization Fund was considered a direct attack on the Euro strategy for what the end game recovery will look like. The Free Gold thesis requires significantly higher gold prices to work and to elevate the euro back in reserve by choice category.

The German reaction was not political but rather a direct warning that they could demand return of their gold just like DeGaulle of France did in the 60s by making a direct and immediate demand for conversion of the US dollar holdings into Gold.
A major central bank will not insult another major central bank unless it is an act of financial war. It has not come to that yet, but it is not that far away. It is 2015 to 2017 and not 2020.

The reason that gold is relatively firm after the media leak and release on the night of the 14th is that I am not the only person who knows the real story. The price of gold will go to and beyond $3500. Gold will be market to market by the majority, if not all, major central banks. This will balance the balance sheet of the many and major debtor nations and will provide the platform for recovery after unwinding.
Respectfully,
Jim

Exchange Stabilization Fund
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


The Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) is an emergency reserve fund of the United States Treasury Department, normally used for foreign exchange intervention. This arrangement (as opposed to having the central bank intervene directly) allows the US government to influence currency exchange rates without affecting domestic money supply.


As of October 2009, the fund held assets worth $105 billion, including $58.1 billion in special drawing rights (SDR) from the International Monetary Fund.[1]


Background


The U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund was established at the Treasury Department by a provision in the Gold Reserve Act of January 31, 1934. 31 U.S.C. § 5117. It was intended as a response to Britain’s Exchange Equalisation Account.[2] The fund began operations in April 1934, financed by $2 billion of the $2.8 billion paper profit the government realized from raising the price of gold to $35 an ounce from $20.67. The act authorized the ESF to use its capital to deal in gold and foreign exchange to stabilize the exchange value of the dollar. The ESF as originally designed was part of the executive branch not subject to legislative oversight.


The Gold Reserve Act authorized the ESF to use such assets as were not needed for exchange market stabilization to deal in government securities. The Fund had no statutory authority, however, to engage in other activities that it began to undertake.[citation needed] The principal such extraneous activity it devoted itself to was lending dollars to politically favored governments.

In 1938–40, the director of the Division of Monetary Research, Harry Dexter White, worked on a proposal for loans to Latin America and participated in plans for an Inter-American Bank, which did not materialize. The plan for an Inter-American Bank, however, inspired White’s first draft of the subsequent plans for the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank that White prepared in 1941 at Secretary of the U.S. Treasury Henry Morgenthau’s direction.


More…


From WWW.JSMINESET.COM
  • #65,079
  • Jan 16, 2013 11:40pm Jan 16, 2013 11:40pm
E/U chart is leading me no where, pretty ugly set up.
  • #65,080
  • Jan 17, 2013 2:18am Jan 17, 2013 2:18am
Quoting rekon67
E/U chart is leading me no where, pretty ugly set up.
OMG ..what fuk happening with E/U.
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