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Sonic R. System

  • #42,821
  • Jan 14, 2013 11:10am Jan 14, 2013 11:10am
Quoting behrozfx
Hi kotlt. i wish it happen that u want and u say.
but in my opinion AU will be in range these hours but if it break 1.0545 or 1.0540 it will go down.
( Mr kotlt excuse that i told u this. yourself are the big trader).
Glad to hear you reply my comment.

I agree with you : AU break 1.0545 can lead to a down. But at least wait for setup .
Keep Simple...!
  • #42,822
  • Jan 14, 2013 11:18am Jan 14, 2013 11:18am
I saw this article on Zerohedge on Friday. The analyst for Goldman is calling for longs on EUR/USD to rally to 1.37. He has a record of being 100% wrong. This supports TAH theory on SM is secretly moving to the short side of the EU. This does not mean that they will not move the EU further up but they are even using the propaganda arm of the SM to entice long positions. Here is the article.....
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  • #42,823
  • Jan 14, 2013 11:54am Jan 14, 2013 11:54am
Quoting worldfreedom
I saw this article on Zerohedge on Friday. The analyst for Goldman is calling for longs on EUR/USD to rally to 1.37. He has a record of being 100% wrong. This supports TAH theory on SM is secretly moving to the short side of the EU. This does not mean that they will not move the EU further up but they are even using the propaganda arm of the SM to entice long positions. Here is the article.....
Gotta get that money from somewhere, lots of little fish can still be as delicious meal as one big fish.
  • #42,824
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:42pm Jan 14, 2013 2:42pm
Valid sonic setup?
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  • #42,825
  • Jan 14, 2013 3:12pm Jan 14, 2013 3:12pm
Quoting traderathome
EU:

Sonicer, this starting to drop (see previous posts about record volumes at highs). However, the US open might bring price up again since that SM is also likely to want similarly high prices at which to resume trading (selling). Just an opinion, but later in the day, after the US open, there might be a good short setup. Patience. If you do not enter here, and there is no better setup later today, I will apologize now for having suggested patience, but I currently believe it is the best way to play this.
Quoting traderathome
EU Comment:

Sonicers, just before FO asian SM started selling. At FO, that SM started selling. At LO, that SM started selling. Now the price is being worked back up by SM, presumably for another round of sellling. And the US open SM will likely want high prices to start off their selling. Therefore, and only an opinion, the price might stay mostly up until sometime after the US open trading gets underway. I'd not expect a good setup for a short trade until after then. Should it happen, the setup will indicate the EP zone. Based on the way...
EU:

See. NY open SM did concentrate on moving prices back up for their own selling plans. So, at this point maybe the Sonic R. short setup for a real move down does not come until tomorrow, or later. You can see the high volumes at the asian session highs, the strong selloff volume that started before the LO, and finally the "pump it back up" volume from the NYC SM. This PA is bearish, but bearish PA does not mean price is soon to fall because SM will continue to hold up prices while they conveniently can, in order to sucker in longs to take the opposite side of their selling.
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  • #42,826
  • Edited 4:08pm Jan 14, 2013 3:26pm | Edited 4:08pm
Quoting Mezzy
Thoughts and comments on my sonic trade appreciated.

I have a habit of picking wrong entry points for sonic entries.

In summary, what I felt was that there was climactic selling action that ended with bullish reaction, and pushed through a support/resistance zone (supply and demand) turning sellers into buyers, however... price did not cross the 89ema until late in the wave pattern and the dragon took awhile to point up. So I did not enter, but chose to wait for another pattern to form.

My 2nd pattern formed but my entry was too early, I should...
A thought is this. Price is sandwiched between resistance at the upper whole number 1.3400 area and support at the lower half number 1.3350 area. This area might be used for some time now while SM covertly sells (close longs, open shorts). There is no telling what SM is going to do, or when. But SM could be reversing positions continuing to put on a bull show of things in order to continue to attract sucker longs. Since this is speculation, and regardless of speculation, we look daily for any setups; long or short. With things as uncertain as they are, up here in this price area, I think M5 is not the chart TF to use unless you are scalping for 15-20 pips. The other view would be to look for setups on M15, and be real sure price is moving with momentum. That might mean look for price to drop below that half number, and wait further until price comes back up to test it and starts to drop again. In other words, patience.

.....This falls under the catagory of "When is a SonicR setup not a good setup?" We often remind how important knowledge of S&R is to good Sonic R. trading. This is an example. A good setup would be for a short trade with price dropping after backtesting the 1.3350 area as resistance, because right now that area is acting as support. Your long trade was the right call. Until SM drops price down thru the 1.3350 support and backtests it as resistance, a long setup off that support is the right call. Unfortunately, the range does not allow for many long pips. Trading Sonic R. is not just looking for PA waves, PA being on the right side of the Dragon, and the Dragon having proper angle. Sonic R. trading about where and when this whole event occurs relative to S&R. What was SM's last demonstrated opinion of the SR area?

This is not saying that a short trade setup can't be entered the first time price starts dropping thru a resistance area. It is higher risk to do so, however. Just look at the short setup with EP a couple of M15 TFs prior to the US open (3rd pic.). Price was heavily being sold off, which took it thru the 1.3350 area with gusto. What happened next, however, was that the NY SM killed the drop and resurrected the price. So, 1.3350 had not yet been broken and backtested as resistance. It was, and is, still support. This is what happens often, to many Sonicers (myself included). We jump on the overall setup, but with too little regard for S&R, and what SM's last opinion of it was. That opinion tends to be the underlying bias for PA until SM revises it's opinion of S&R by showing it with a break and a backtest. Meanwhile, we enter good looking setups (in this case a short trade setup), but that are contrary to SM's last demonstrated opinion of S&R, and can easily end up in a wrong side trade.

Hope this Helps,
-tah
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  • #42,827
  • Edited 4:22pm Jan 14, 2013 4:12pm | Edited 4:22pm
Quoting traderathome
A thought is this. Price is sandwiched between resistance at the upper whole number 1.3400 area and support at the lower half number 1.3350 area. This area might be used for some time now while SM covertly sells (close longs, open shorts). There is no telling what SM is going to do, or when. But SM could be reversing positions continuing to put on a bull show of things in order to continue to attract sucker longs. Since this is speculation, and regardless of speculation, we look daily for any setups; long or short. With things as uncertain as they...
I really appreciate your analysis very detailed an thorough much more than I had anticipated! However! My current view on SM is they are still adding to long positions.

I say this because of my readings concerning the Wyckoff market cycle.

Honestly none of us can predict with 100% certainty of what the market will do, but here's the reasoning behind my "bias"

Tell me what you think about this... Some food for thought.

I didn't have the ability to place volume on the chart however if you look at the volume we are on rising volume moving up, and it seems to be gaining momentum. Prior to the rise there was a spike at the bottom, which I believe was stopping volume of the current move, and then price started consistently rising.

Does this affect your bias? I'm interested if it does.

*#edit#* I want to put a subcomment or some notes in here, because I know people have read my FUNDAMENTAL analysis where I said that I believe the USD will overtake the EURO as the US has more room for economic growth and is primed to recover, this post is concerning technical aspects of trading. My fundamental views are honestly still the same, the thing about fundamental bias's is that they are hard to pinpoint time's as politics/world events get in the way/delay/invalidate. I do believe that a US recovery is coming, it's just not here yet, and we may see prices of euro back to the 1.4 level in my opinion as far as technical data gives us. I'm watching like a hawk for the US to have some explosive recovery news and see what the market does after. Initially since its news I feel we will have a huge spike in EURO favor, which will be the actions of big money unloading their positions and shorting. Be very careful trading when this happens, as they WANT you to get suckered into buying. Technically I feel this has not come yet as TAH is predicting in his bias, but I'm on board with him when I say it IS coming.

Good luck, safe and happy trading.
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  • #42,828
  • Edited 4:53pm Jan 14, 2013 4:30pm | Edited 4:53pm
Quoting Mezzy
I really appreciate your analysis very detailed an thorough much more than I had anticipated! However! My current view on SM is they are still adding to long positions.

I say this because of my readings concerning the Wyckoff market cycle.

Honestly none of us can predict with 100% certainty of what the market will do, but here's the reasoning behind my "bias"

Tell me what you think about this... Some food for thought.

I didn't have the ability to place volume on the chart however if you look at the volume we are on...
I am trying to avoid the bias generating study of longer TF charts.

I can show you (pic #1) a chart that "says" the market is genuinely bullish, having backtested a TL on the Weekly. And could this move up on the Weely be bullish sign according to the Wyckoff market cycle? Yes, I suppose so.

On the other hand, SM takes much more into consideration than just such charts and cycles. Things are much different now than they were almost a year ago when price last moved up to the current price area. This move up might be, contrary to the Weekly chart and the Wyckoff market cycle, a distribution move, a move up to bring in longs while SM sells. So, for me, I am trying to stick with what I see on M15, and what the Daily/H4, primarily H4 shows.

And currently, H4 shows as price has been driven up, volume has been decreasing (pic #2). And this is a beaish sign. Together with high volumes at the highs on M15, which is also a bearish sign.

And here is another thing to consider. GU. Look at H4 (pic #3), which is definately bearish. See how PA has dropped thru support and is backtesting it as resistance now? If price starts dropping further, I'd be looking for a GU Sonic R. short setup on M15. And if that happens, what about EU? Is the Euro going to go way out of balance against the GBP, with GU falling and EU continuing to rise? After all, which currency has the most problems, Euro or GBP? Huh? Things might be at a critical stage between the Euro and GBP (see pic #4).

So, we now have stuff (Weekly & Wyckoff) and (H4/M15) that contradicts. What am I doing? I'm being patient. And I am looking to see what SM does around S&R each day, on M15.
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  • #42,829
  • Jan 14, 2013 4:42pm Jan 14, 2013 4:42pm
Quoting traderathome
I am trying to avoid the bias generating study of longer TF charts.

I can show you (pic #1) a chart that "says" the market is genuinely bullish, having backtested a TL on the Weekly. And could this move up on the Weely be bullish sign according to the Wyckoff market cycle? Yes, I suppose so.

On the other hand, SM takes much more into consideration than just such charts and cycles. Things are much different now than they were almost a year ago when price last moved up to the current price area. This move up might be, contrary to the Weekly...

I really like this line of conversation. To me this is what I see, going strictly off your chart.

Pic 1. Weekly Trendline has been broken and has retested and closed above it. I believe this is a sign of strength for further up moves.
Pic 2. SM Shows its hand pushing price up, closing near the high. The reaction off this movement is bullish, bulls are coming out in force. The falling volume is because the herd has less moving power than the SM's however they are still pushing price higher. SM knows it is not in a position to fight this big of a bullish herd, and must wait for the right time to manipulate.

So I believe SM will do another push up, wait for a bear movement to come after, and then price can fall. However I feel like the market has way too many signs of strength for the SM's to push the price down.

*lots of little fish can scare off the big predator fish when they all swim in harmony*
  • #42,830
  • Edited 5:25pm Jan 14, 2013 4:59pm | Edited 5:25pm
Quoting Mezzy
I really like this line of conversation. To me this is what I see, going strictly off your chart.

Pic 1. Weekly Trendline has been broken and has retested and closed above it. I believe this is a sign of strength for further up moves.
Pic 2. SM Shows its hand pushing price up, closing near the high. The reaction off this movement is bullish, bulls are coming out in force. The falling volume is because the herd has less moving power than the SM's however they are still pushing price higher. SM knows it is not in a position to fight this big of...
Okey. So, where does that leave us? Huh? For me, it means all that we just went thru was a waste of time and possibly a wrong bias building exercise. All that really matters is what happens on M15. From day to day, that is the question, and the only question that matters. So, we are right back to the starting line for the Sonic R. System, aren't we. Daily evaluating PA, waves, Dragon, volume,....looking for a proper setup and trading with with sensible targets and money management. Everything else is always a waste of time.

Your last trade was long, off S&R that SM last deemed to be support, a proper trade. And with next resistance currently being in the upper whole number area, that is a sensible target, should it be reached. Nothing else matters unless price breaks up thru the 1.3400 resistance (good for your long trade), or starts to fall again. If price starts to fall again, it might not be good for your long trade because SM might be ready to break the half number support and then later test it as new, lower resistance. This sort of thing on M15 is really all that matters. Anything else is a waste of time and worse yet, a bias generating exercise. Bias kills!

In my humble opinion, Monthly, Weekly, even Daily charts are not proof of what direction PA is going to take the next day. Neither is Wyckoff cycles. Nothing is! Nobody knows what the next day will bring, and nothing will predict it reliably. The Sonic R. System is, and remains, elegantly simple for this very reason. It takes whatever the current market gives, with close attention to PA behaviour around local S&R and with close attention to historic S&R for picking trade exits.

Anything else, everything else, is a waste of time if you are trading the Sonic R. System. Oh, it might be fun to engage in, as I well know. But, alas, it is all a damaging bias building waste of time, and which I am curtailing my participation in,....at least working on doing so. My daily Mantra, "I have no bias whatsoever. What will SM set up today? Will it be consistent with it's last calls on S&R?"

-tah
  • #42,831
  • Jan 14, 2013 5:26pm Jan 14, 2013 5:26pm
Quoting traderathome
Okey. So, where does that leave us? Huh? For me, it means all that we just went thru was a waste of time and possibly a wrong bias building exercise. All that really matters is what happens on M15. From day to day, that is the question, and the only question that matters. So, we are right back to the starting line for the Sonic R. System, aren't we. Daily evaluating PA, waves, Dragon, volume,....looking for a proper setup and trading with with sensible targets and money management. Everything else is always a waste of time.

Your last trade was...
It was fun wasn't it
Appreciate the thought provoking dialog, I do love brain stimulation.

-Mezzy
  • #42,832
  • Jan 14, 2013 5:28pm Jan 14, 2013 5:28pm
Quoting Mezzy
It was fun wasn't it
Appreciate the thought provoking dialog, I do love brain stimulation.

-Mezzy
Yes, it was fun. And my billing to you for time is in the mail. You are lucky I haven't included a surcharge for overstimulating my brain cells, which at my age could be an expensive risk!

-tah
  • #42,833
  • Edited 6:22pm Jan 14, 2013 5:44pm | Edited 6:22pm
AU:

Sonicers, see the long lower wicks (pic #1)? SM could be running the price down repeatedly to take the short side of pending long orders that show up. Longs might look at PA as encouraging for a move higher. SM might be taking advantage by loading up shorts. The lower qtr. number is a local support/first target area. The upper whole number is local resistance area. Indeed, if SM is selling, it might take prices higher before dropping them, as this would bring in even more longs which would enable SM to short at even higher prices. Trend is down on M15 and bearish PA outweighs bullish PA, so that is why this has some logic to it. If price does setup for a short, a move lower might bounce at the qtr. number/first target area, pull back (possibly backtest the 1.0540-1.0550 area as support turned resistance), then go even lower, towards RDL.

Anything can happen. Right? This is just an opinion/hypothesis from the current VSA.
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  • #42,834
  • Jan 14, 2013 5:59pm Jan 14, 2013 5:59pm
Hey, ddaytrader! Good to see you! (see your name in list of viewers)
  • #42,835
  • Jan 14, 2013 6:58pm Jan 14, 2013 6:58pm
N/U Setup?
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  • #42,836
  • Jan 14, 2013 7:20pm Jan 14, 2013 7:20pm
Quoting kashTrader
N/U Setup?
Don't know about the timing of the entry because it is still way too early before London session. However, analyzing for a target, both historic S&R and the completion of the "W" pattern point to the same area, just above the half number. The trade could be worth about 36 pips, tentative EP to presumed target.
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  • #42,837
  • Jan 14, 2013 8:01pm Jan 14, 2013 8:01pm
Quoting traderathome
Hey, ddaytrader! Good to see you! (see your name in list of viewers)
Hi there, TAH! Great to see you at it as strong as ever!
  • #42,838
  • Jan 14, 2013 9:09pm Jan 14, 2013 9:09pm
Hi Tah, EJ starting downtrend or just testing?

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  • #42,839
  • Jan 14, 2013 9:54pm Jan 14, 2013 9:54pm
Hello, all

Is there any good way to filter out chappy market using VSA?

Thanks.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #42,840
  • Edited 10:52pm Jan 14, 2013 10:18pm | Edited 10:52pm
EU:

Three times to highs. Each high lower then previous. Each with lower volume than previous. Bearish. Distribution and testing upwards for longs so to take short side, and each time exhausting longs sooner, and at lower prices. A short setup is upon us. Maybe LO will reset. Maybe not.

Still, SM has called the 1.3340-1.3350 area support the last time down. SM has yet to break it and backtest it as resistance. Any entry prior to that happening is with the same risk the short entry had yesterday. And see how that turned out. But, now there are three trips to highs with results that certainly are defining the upper whole number area as one of increasing resistance.

The London session is a powerful time in the market, meaning what happens there can be contrary to whatever happened prior, or in any case can be simply overwhelmingly strong by comparision. Acting on the asian session alone is not ".....let the market decide."

Patience to wait for the London session......
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