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EURUSD

  • #745,961
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:02pm Jan 14, 2013 2:02pm
Quoting spartanforex
problem with the fed's actions is the banks arent leanding because their needs to be 2 things present to make new loans. 1. income to pay those loans off and 2. collateral. incomes are falling and assets namely housing prices arent on a upward move because the banks know they have tons of foreclosures to dump on the market.
I think there actually 3 things lets not forget its not very advantageous for banks to issue new loans when there borrowing for near zero interest rates and they can trade the money instead and show much better returns. This has been a major reason why the small guy cant get a loan theres way more skin in the game for banks to use the money for other things. It has come to a point now unless you have stellar credit and huge down payment and basically a guarantee from your boss that you wont get fired till your mortgage is paid off that you wont be able to get a mortgage
It works till it doesn't
  • #745,962
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:03pm Jan 14, 2013 2:03pm
Hi all,

Japanese banks had a holiday yesterday, we still saw a test of 120 on the EJ.

Support found at ~119 during what I believe was the London/NY session. Wasn't awake then, as it is around 3am for me!

EU triangle, breakout to upside see us at 1.339 @ double top.

2nd target would be 1.34, rejection would be favourable but market never waits for anyone.

Long term I see Euro testing 1.20, but that is really long term buddy, end of the year I will quote this!
USD fiscal cliff, debt:GDP everything lilke that is shocking, but will take a while for politicians to make drastic changes, until then everything put off and market will be uneffected.

Bears will come in time, been saying this since 1.26 but im still alive.

Been making a lot in the EJ with scalping long after long.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Triangle.PNG Size: 43 KB
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #745,963
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:07pm Jan 14, 2013 2:07pm
Quoting DaEdge
I think there actually 3 things lets not forget its not very advantageous for banks to issue new loans when there borrowing for near zero interest rates and they can trade the money instead and show much better returns. This has been a major reason why the small guy cant get a loan theres way more skin in the game for banks to use the money for other things. It has come to a point now unless you have stellar credit and huge down payment and basically a guarantee from your boss that you wont get fired till your mortgage is paid off that you wont...
You're getting it my friend that's exactly what is occuring, plus the derivative market is another place the banks are using the QE money also. Also the banks buying into stocks helps pension funds, bernanke mentions the wealth effect. if stocks are up people spend more believing their net worth is higher.
  • #745,964
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:10pm Jan 14, 2013 2:10pm
Quoting DaEdge
Still looking good here.
Scale in at 119.0x.

118.85 is still the key.
  • #745,965
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:12pm Jan 14, 2013 2:12pm
Quoting spartanforex
You're getting it my friend that's exactly what is occuring, plus the derivative market is another place the banks are using the QE money also.
to think 15+ years on a couple of different trading desks thats all it took
It works till it doesn't
  • #745,966
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:14pm Jan 14, 2013 2:14pm
Quoting Ken A
Scale in at 119.0x.

118.85 is still the key.
I nibbled a little at .95 i couldn't resist very small tho compared to the rest of my position, just seemed like to good of a value to pass up.
It works till it doesn't
  • #745,967
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:18pm Jan 14, 2013 2:18pm
Wait a minute , did USDCHF just move in the same direction as EURUSD !
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #745,968
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:19pm Jan 14, 2013 2:19pm
Quoting spartanforex
You're getting it my friend that's exactly what is occuring, plus the derivative market is another place the banks are using the QE money also. Also the banks buying into stocks helps pension funds, bernanke mentions the wealth effect. if stocks are up people spend more believing their net worth is higher.
From my experience most PB's would rather just find counter parties for the derivatives for there clients & flip them. Hedge Funds love them because the capital out lay is generally so small on them.
It works till it doesn't
  • #745,969
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:21pm Jan 14, 2013 2:21pm
Quoting Vachus
Wait a minute , did USDCHF just move in the same direction as EURUSD !
Ha ha ha, even the EURCHF too.
  • #745,970
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:23pm Jan 14, 2013 2:23pm
Quoting Vachus
Wait a minute , did USDCHF just move in the same direction as EURUSD !
Yes.. Franc is weak across the board.

CHF < USD < GBP < EUR
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #745,971
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:28pm Jan 14, 2013 2:28pm
Quoting square1
Ha ha ha, even the EURCHF too.
EURCHF looks normal , i'm talking about the previous H1 - they are both green on EURUSD & USDCHF ... !
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #745,972
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:29pm Jan 14, 2013 2:29pm
Seems to be a lot of dollars running scared before the Bernanke speach, everyone knows how much bad news he is for the dollar
  • #745,973
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:33pm Jan 14, 2013 2:33pm
LOL! SO much for the EURO retracement. It's bubbleicious. Oh man, that would be so cool if Mr. Bernanke said something totally unexpected (never happen, but one can dream)
  • #745,974
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:37pm Jan 14, 2013 2:37pm
Quoting Turhovach
LOL! SO much for the EURO retracement. It's bubbleicious. Oh man, that would be so cool if Mr. Bernanke said something totally unexpected (never happen, but one can dream)
Hey Turhovach, how you see this strange broken correlation between the Swiss and Euro ! Is that kind of normal and happened before !
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #745,975
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:40pm Jan 14, 2013 2:40pm
Quoting DaEdge
I nibbled a little at .95 i couldn't resist very small tho compared to the rest of my position, just seemed like to good of a value to pass up.
You are safe - Willow is busy at the kitchen all day.
  • #745,976
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:49pm Jan 14, 2013 2:49pm
Quoting Ken A
You are safe - Willow is busy at the kitchen all day.
Awesome, any idea what she's making?
It works till it doesn't
  • #745,977
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:54pm Jan 14, 2013 2:54pm
Quoting Vachus
Hey Turhovach, how you see this strange broken correlation between the Swiss and Euro ! Is that kind of normal and happened before !
This is what happens when the "free" market ceases to exist. I think we're seeing the end of the currency markets as we have known them, You can bet your life that every central bank in the world that has a problem similar to what the Swiss were faced with is taking a hard look at what just happened. CB's are going to dictate currency prices, the market be damned. The EURCHF floor has been a resounding success. Throw in negative interest rates and you've accomplished what you set out to do. Correlations work in an unfettered market. This is no longer an unfettered market. This "gentleman's agreement" that most countries claimed they subscibed to (the one that says that they're not going to manipulate their currencies to the detriment of other countries) - out the frickin' window. They've bastardized the currency market...
  • #745,978
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:55pm Jan 14, 2013 2:55pm
Quoting DaEdge
Awesome, any idea what she's making?
Scary stuff - 3 elements to make a bomb.
  • #745,979
  • Jan 14, 2013 3:05pm Jan 14, 2013 3:05pm
Quoting Ken A
Scary stuff - 3 elements to make a bomb.
Yikes luckily all the Feds are probably with uncle ben right now in Michigan or she'd have a big problem.
It works till it doesn't
  • #745,980
  • Jan 14, 2013 3:06pm Jan 14, 2013 3:06pm
Quoting Turhovach
This is what happens when the "free" market ceases to exist. I think we're seeing the end of the currency markets as we have known them, You can bet your life that every central bank in the world that has a problem similar to what the Swiss were faced with is taking a hard look at what just happened. CB's are going to dictate currency prices, the market be damned. The EURCHF floor has been a resounding success. Throw in negative interest rates and you've accomplished what you set out to do. Correlations work in an unfettered market. This...
the name of the game is " Ease and devalue your currency " ... some people are saying " It will be the mother of all bubbles ". thanks for the reply !
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
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