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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #64,961
  • Jan 14, 2013 12:17pm Jan 14, 2013 12:17pm
Quoting lumesh
Gaps USUALLY have the tendency to close, yes, nothing peculiar about that.


Just as there are cases where they have left open, see U/J for reference, or EURGBP...


No food here...
A gap filling by less than a pip and then reversing up 25 pips is noteworthy. Just because you don't have a handle on the euro currently doesn't give you the green light to be a jerk towards me.

Maybe if you actually ate when somebody throws you a crumb you wouldn't be starving at the moment.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #64,962
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:25pm Jan 14, 2013 2:25pm
A Conversation with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.. Monday, January 14, 2012 -4:00 PM - 5:30 PM > http://www.fordschool.umich.edu/stre...anke/index.php
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,963
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:34pm Jan 14, 2013 2:34pm
Quoting TexasforEX
A gap filling by less than a pip and then reversing up 25 pips is noteworthy. Just because you don't have a handle on the euro currently doesn't give you the green light to be a jerk towards me.

Didn't mean to hurt your feelings, dude, i just outlined my take on gaps. There's a higher than 50% probability that gaps would fill within the day or within the week. I also gave examples of where gaps are open which means it's not a very high probability strategy.

Plus, gaps can fill to the pip and then reverse; they can fill by a 10+ pips into the gap and then reverse and they can shoot through the gap without reversing.


Quoting TexasforEX
A gap filling by less than a pip and then reversing up 25 pips is noteworthy
Define noteworthy. Today was the kind of day that the price reversed after filling the gap. You could've made money by closing the gap as well as by going long when the gap was filled. Why is it special? It's just an additional support/resistance level with its own probability scheme.

What would be noteworthy is if you can explain WHY gaps tend to fill.


take care.


Quoting TexasforEX
Maybe if you actually ate when somebody throws you a crumb you wouldn't be starving at the moment.
Someone threw me a crumb ? Where ? I want one !
  • #64,964
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:48pm Jan 14, 2013 2:48pm
Quoting lumesh
Didn't mean to hurt your feelings, dude, i just outlined my take on gaps. There's a higher than 50% probability that gaps would fill within the day or within the week. I also gave examples of where gaps are open which means it's not a very high probability strategy.

Plus, gaps can fill to the pip and then reverse; they can fill by a 10+ pips into the gap and then reverse and they can shoot through the gap without reversing.




Define noteworthy. Today was the kind of day that the price reversed after filling the gap. You could've made...
Theres always huge arguments over gaps and whether or not there real. Im in the not real camp. In the spot market money is constantly moving and technically the market rarely close that is why you can almost always exchange your currency regardless of the day of the year or time of day. Keep in mind also if you raise your TF you wont see the gap anymore. Go to a monthly, quarterly or yearly chart & you wont see yesterdays gap.
It works till it doesn't
  • #64,965
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:54pm Jan 14, 2013 2:54pm
Quoting lumesh
Someone threw me a crumb ? Where ? I want one !
There you go making me hungry again. Stop it
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,966
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:57pm Jan 14, 2013 2:57pm
Quoting DaEdge
Theres always huge arguments over gaps and whether or not there real. Im in the not real camp. In the spot market money is constantly moving and technically the market rarely close that is why you can almost always exchange your currency regardless of the day of the year or time of day. Keep in mind also if you raise your TF you wont see the gap anymore. Go to a monthly, quarterly or yearly chart & you wont see yesterdays gap.
Gaps work as a trade as long as the majority of traders who are active on a Sunday night (dumb money) believe it works and are trading it accordingly... thereby making it a self fulfilling prophecy... just like any other lagging technical indicator.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,967
  • Jan 14, 2013 2:59pm Jan 14, 2013 2:59pm
Quoting PipTrapper
A Conversation with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.. Monday, January 14, 2012 -4:00 PM - 5:30 PM > http://www.fordschool.umich.edu/stre...anke/index.php
2 minutes folks. Watch Benny crush the dollar in a few words... and then watch it bounce back afterwards.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,968
  • Jan 14, 2013 3:01pm Jan 14, 2013 3:01pm
Watching and learning I'm on it, like a Pitbull on a Pork Chop!
  • #64,969
  • Jan 14, 2013 3:02pm Jan 14, 2013 3:02pm
Quoting PipTrapper
2 minutes folks. Watch Benny crush the dollar in a few words... and then watch it bounce back afterwards.
Not expecting to much in-depth QE talk which is what everyone is looking for since his audience is a bunch of college kids, but who know at this point anything can happen.
It works till it doesn't
  • #64,970
  • Jan 14, 2013 3:07pm Jan 14, 2013 3:07pm
Quoting DaEdge
Not expecting to much in-depth QE talk which is what everyone is looking for since his audience is a bunch of college kids, but who know at this point anything can happen.
all it takes is a slip of the tongue, or some vague statement that the risk hungry market may react to.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,971
  • Jan 14, 2013 3:09pm Jan 14, 2013 3:09pm
Quoting PipTrapper
all it takes is a slip of the tongue, or some vague statement that the risk hungry market may react to.
agreed and with uncle ben you never know
It works till it doesn't
  • #64,972
  • Edited 3:30pm Jan 14, 2013 3:17pm | Edited 3:30pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Gaps work as a trade as long as the majority of traders who are active on a Sunday night (dumb money) believe it works and are trading it accordingly... thereby making it a self fulfilling prophecy... just like any other lagging technical indicator.
The "dumb money" filled the gap today, not Sunday.

On my charts, a gap is just another level. And any level on any chart only becomes important when price respects it. In this instance, price respected it to the pip and that is why I mentioned it originally.


Quoting lumesh
Define noteworthy. Today was the kind of day that the price reversed after filling the gap.
Am I in the twilight zone here? The fact that price bounced after filling to the pip is what is noteworthy. It is an obvious trading opportunity and I thought that's what we're here for.

Quoting lumesh
What would be noteworthy is if you can explain WHY gaps tend to fill.
Why is that noteworthy? Quite frankly, understanding the logistics about why price might or might not fill a gap does not pay well. What does pay well is noticing when price respects a gap and trading accordingly.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #64,973
  • Jan 14, 2013 3:55pm Jan 14, 2013 3:55pm
Quoting TexasforEX
The "dumb money" filled the gap today, not Sunday.

On my charts, a gap is just another level. And any level on any chart only becomes important when price respects it. In this instance, price respected it to the pip and that is why I mentioned it originally.
Actually on FXCM, the gap was filled on Sunday night as pointed out by the yellow arrow on my chart.
Regardless, if you traded it and made money from it, that's what counts.
In the future, it might be worth taking note that as soon as you say "Let's skip that part", you're gonna get feedback on it anyway.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,974
  • Jan 14, 2013 3:59pm Jan 14, 2013 3:59pm
Would be nice if it happened like that ...a guy can dream can't he?
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The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #64,975
  • Jan 14, 2013 4:01pm Jan 14, 2013 4:01pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Actually on FXCM, the gap was filled on Sunday night as pointed out by the yellow arrow on my chart.
Regardless, if you traded it and made money from it, that's what counts.
In the future, it might be worth taking note that as soon as you say "Let's skip that part", you're gonna get feedback on it anyway.

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Didn't happen on I.B.F.X. That is a F.X.C.M special and it's one of the reasons I don't care for them but that's another topic for another thread.

I am a technical trader and it seems as though this thread is highly fundamentally driven. Perhaps we can learn from each other, perhaps not. GL
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"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #64,976
  • Jan 14, 2013 6:37pm Jan 14, 2013 6:37pm
Just read elsewhere statement that when the European stock market crashes, dollar goes up. Has anyone noticed this or other correlation with euro stock? I'm in US... where would I find a Euro stock index for overnight at the NY open? Thanks!
  • #64,977
  • Jan 14, 2013 6:50pm Jan 14, 2013 6:50pm
Hi Guys,

Cant sleep so i though i would take my time and post my thoughts on the EURUSD.... I have a Long position target of 1.3480/1.35 of where i will close my positions (probably 2/3) I am long from 1.32

At the TP levels i will wait to see how price action reacts but i might sneak in a short from these levels as some kind of correction will be inevitable but then again you never know.

i will post later in the week my charts and analysis for this pair...

Good luck and many green pips to all
Cheers!!
  • #64,978
  • Jan 14, 2013 11:46pm Jan 14, 2013 11:46pm
Quote:
Define noteworthy. Today was the kind of day that the price reversed after filling the gap. You could've made money by closing the gap as well as by going long when the gap was filled. Why is it special? It's just an additional support/resistance level with its own probability scheme.

What would be noteworthy is if you can explain WHY gaps tend to fill.

It was my understanding that Gaps are an area where there was little to no liquidity or back and forth trading (I know that term does not make much sense, but I'm not an expert so bare with me). There is hardly any resistance in these areas so when price goes into the area there is nothing to stop it continuing to fill that Gap. All this seems to offer is a higher probability for closing the Gap and, as seen by history, not a certainty.

I also speculate that there is a psychological element; If you had a trade that was open at the end of the week, waited all weekend and when the market opened and jumped favorably or unfavorably in a direction by any amount (Though the bigger the amount, the higher the psychological effect), you might want to take a profit or your loss till thing went right back to where they started, then try again with the same trade (or in the case of someone who had taken a loss, take the other side of the trade).

Of course, the smart trader should in my opinion, wait to see how price reacts as these levels, maybe scalp a high probability bounce.
Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #64,979
  • Jan 15, 2013 2:26am Jan 15, 2013 2:26am
Long EURUSD downside 1.300 upside 1.37 Like those odds plus volatility seems to be back . My log show I made good pips in April May and June as EUR slides to 1.21 Now the upside top is near and its a glorious time again. Thanks Halkins Pip Tapper and Currency man
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Trading Consultants Inc JJG
  • #64,980
  • Jan 15, 2013 2:41am Jan 15, 2013 2:41am
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