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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #32,741
  • Jan 11, 2013 1:44am Jan 11, 2013 1:44am
Quoting Prodix86
How can this thing keep climbing up? You guys really think that it won't fall??
I think it will fall after the boj meeting at the around the 22nd
  • #32,742
  • Jan 11, 2013 1:58am Jan 11, 2013 1:58am
Quoting brinks
I think it will fall after the boj meeting at the around the 22nd
Except they will set a floor. I guess I won't sleep at that night.
  • #32,743
  • Jan 11, 2013 3:43am Jan 11, 2013 3:43am
Im flat now good weekend to all long and short
  • #32,744
  • Jan 11, 2013 3:58am Jan 11, 2013 3:58am
see many winners here. not that i am jelaous or something.

old saying : pregnant dog's first couple newborns are for graveyard.
  • #32,745
  • Jan 11, 2013 6:03am Jan 11, 2013 6:03am
Hey guys , it seems that once again my fundamentals + charts didn't lie ! I'm holding my target of 90 buck's and I think is going to hit it and break it around 21-22 of January.

Like DaEdge or brinks said, any retrace in the current up trend is a chance for buyers to grab a bigger chunk of profit. My opinion, 1 bigger volume trade with TP at $90 and some smaller ones just to pinch the market, like we did since $80-$82 .

Also some nice info for you guys:


* Japan PM Abe - Bold monetary easing essential in beating deflation, strong JPY, simultaneous monetary-fiscal policy mix needed to revive economy, will create new demand to use money pumped out by BoJ, BoJ must include employment growth as policy growth, govt-BoJ responsible for correcting strong JPY - Nikkei, Reuters, MNI. * Government approves Y20.2 trln extra budget, Y10.3 trln in public works, Y5 trln in additional JGB issuance. * Japan Nov c/a deficit Y222.4 bln, Y3.5 bln eyed, first deficit since Jan '12 when it was Y455.6 bln. * MoF Dec flow data - Japanese sell net Y445.9 bln foreign stocks, buy Y501.9 bln bonds, sell Y145.8 bln bills, heavy bond traffic, sales too but buys win out; foreign investors buy net Y1.4969 trln apanese stocks, sell Y1.1423 trln bonds, Y1.6235 trln bills, heavy stock-bill volume; Nov data show Y494.5 bln in direct Japanese investments abroad. * Japan Dec outstanding bank loans Y463.351 trln, +1.2% y/y.


Good luck to all of my long going friends
  • #32,746
  • Jan 11, 2013 9:10am Jan 11, 2013 9:10am
Quoting MisterSpread
Hey guys , it seems that once again my fundamentals + charts didn't lie ! I'm holding my target of 90 buck's and I think is going to hit it and break it around 21-22 of January.

Like DaEdge or brinks said, any retrace in the current up trend is a chance for buyers to grab a bigger chunk of profit. My opinion, 1 bigger volume trade with TP at $90 and some smaller ones just to pinch the market, like we did since $80-$82 .

Also some nice info for you guys:


* Japan PM Abe - Bold monetary easing essential in beating deflation, strong...
MisterSpread glad to see your back. Hope the holidays were good to you and the family. Theres been some serious movement in the yen crosses since you've been gone im sure you've been keeping on eye on the PA. Buy the dips till the market tells us not to anymore. I see the potential for a lot more to the upside the real commitment of capital hasn't even started yet the majority of these moves have been do to Abe doing a wonderful job using the media to his advantage to get his message across.
It works till it doesn't
  • #32,747
  • Jan 11, 2013 11:04pm Jan 11, 2013 11:04pm
What would happen to this pair IF BoJ refuses PM' demands for inflation target & easing?
  • #32,748
  • Jan 12, 2013 8:54am Jan 12, 2013 8:54am
Quoting Trader221
What would happen to this pair IF BoJ refuses PM' demands for inflation target & easing?
BOJ has repeated that it will cooperate with the new formed government, and in case it does not then Abe will change the mandate of the BOJ together with the chairman and then they will cooperate. Though the first scenario would cause a dip in the exchange, I will take it as an advantage to go long stronger in the dip. I do not trade blips, I position my trades for the long term and I see the UY going above 100 in the short to mid term
  • #32,749
  • Jan 12, 2013 10:00am Jan 12, 2013 10:00am
Quoting Trader221
What would happen to this pair IF BoJ refuses PM' demands for inflation target & easing?
Abe has already said that he will make changes with BOJ of the dont cooperate, his party LDP won the majority of seats so he has the ability to make these changes. Only way the easing is not going to happen is if he changes his mind which is probably not that likely.
It works till it doesn't
  • #32,750
  • Jan 13, 2013 10:25am Jan 13, 2013 10:25am
Quoting DaEdge
Abe has already said that he will make changes with BOJ of the dont cooperate, his party LDP won the majority of seats so he has the ability to make these changes. Only way the easing is not going to happen is if he changes his mind which is probably not that likely.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...tral-bank.html
'“We want someone who can push through bold monetary policy,” Abe said. “We are thinking hard about fiscal discipline as we form the next fiscal year’s budget. Still, the economy isn’t going to change unless we display a firm commitment to escape deflation at the same time.” '

...and Abe today confirmed it again.
  • #32,751
  • Jan 13, 2013 11:46am Jan 13, 2013 11:46am
Quoting Kard
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...tral-bank.html
'“We want someone who can push through bold monetary policy,” Abe said. “We are thinking hard about fiscal discipline as we form the next fiscal year’s budget. Still, the economy isn’t going to change unless we display a firm commitment to escape deflation at the same time.” '

...and Abe today confirmed it again.
to many people trying to call Abe's bluff for no reason, so much easier to expect it to be true until he proves it to be otherwise, & enjoy the ride.
It works till it doesn't
  • #32,752
  • Jan 13, 2013 12:21pm Jan 13, 2013 12:21pm
88.12 is the best level to watch this week. Perfect confluence of 50% Fib & last weeks open price.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #32,753
  • Edited 12:38pm Jan 13, 2013 12:27pm | Edited 12:38pm
Bloomberg is showing a gap up at the moment 89.31 so it's gonna be hard work to get a entry at 88

Pullbacks have been very shallow.
  • #32,754
  • Jan 13, 2013 2:00pm Jan 13, 2013 2:00pm
Quoting brinks
Bloomberg is showing a gap up at the moment 89.31 so it's gonna be hard work to get a entry at 88

Pullbacks have been very shallow.
Glad to hear we are gapping up. I hear you about the shallow pullbacks, but last weeks action did retrace past 50% of the previous week. I'll simply be watching price action looking for any low risk entries.

Also, when a level like 88.12 appears too perfect/obvious, often it doesn't get tested which would go along with what you are saying.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #32,755
  • Jan 13, 2013 11:39pm Jan 13, 2013 11:39pm
Pretty critical time right now. Lets see how she responds.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #32,756
  • Jan 14, 2013 1:21am Jan 14, 2013 1:21am
Gidday

Still sitting on small long

clipping the ticket all the way up

To be fair done very well out of these YEN pairs

And the market has a nasty way of taking back all your gains

Only really survived by doing smaller trades without to much risk

Must be getting close for a we retrace
  • #32,757
  • Jan 14, 2013 1:27am Jan 14, 2013 1:27am
Quoting eliteincome
Gidday

Still sitting on small long

clipping the ticket all the way up

To be fair done very well out of these YEN pairs

And the market has a nasty way of taking back all your gains

Only really survived by doing smaller trades without to much risk

Must be getting close for a we retrace
This is the exact reason why I don't like to go all in all out on a trade & I build in & out of it of it as well as add in & book profits along the way.
It works till it doesn't
  • #32,758
  • Jan 14, 2013 3:31am Jan 14, 2013 3:31am
hello everybody,

I think Abe is pushing BOJ day by day via bold press-statements, that’s what drove markets up – as well as data from China – during the Asian session.

I wonder what will happen if the BOJ under delivers on next Monday’s meeting. Situation of BOJ is quite tough, with government pressing for unlimited easing while their advice is probably less aggressive. Further to that, the actual board should end its term on March if I’m not mistaken, which probably leads to two different scenarios. Either they keep a low profile by agreeing to only part of Abe’s request for stimulus, or they act like Pontius Pilatus – washing their hands over the matter and leaving everything to the next Governor.

I feel now, more than the previous week, is absolutely risky buying at these levels. I fear a sudden shift in market sentiment – even if short-termed. Better book profits but not too much, the rally is definitely going to resume even if a consolidation period gets in, and I’d be quite disappointed to see positions opened at 84 close just for a brief panic.

Trade safe,
  • #32,759
  • Jan 14, 2013 3:37am Jan 14, 2013 3:37am
i waited two years for this to go up now im on the ass end of this trade...Crazy...Live and learn...
Quoting zusch
Pretty critical time right now. Lets see how she responds.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1-14-2013 1-34-40 AM.jpg Size: 353 KB
  • #32,760
  • Jan 14, 2013 8:05am Jan 14, 2013 8:05am
Quoting smokey_81
hello everybody,

I think Abe is pushing BOJ day by day via bold press-statements, that’s what drove markets up – as well as data from China – during the Asian session.

I wonder what will happen if the BOJ under delivers on next Monday’s meeting. Situation of BOJ is quite tough, with government pressing for unlimited easing while their advice is probably less aggressive. Further to that, the actual board should end its term on March if I’m not mistaken, which probably leads to two different scenarios. Either they keep a low profile by agreeing...
Abe has definitely used the media perfectly to his advantage the actually amount of stimulus that has but put into the markets has been minimal. I can't see BOJ under delivering since he's already made it clear that he'll use what men's necessary to achieve 2% inflation target, and he has not been shy about saying he'll make changes in heads on BOJ is they don't cooperate. The next BOJ governor is appointed in April I believe. Buying the dips at these levels can be risky but if your using realistic size & not over leveraging you'll be fine I wouldn't suggest buying breakouts. Right now there is ton of speculation moving this market & there has been a massive increase in volatility, shorts should only be considered scalps IMO.
It works till it doesn't
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