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  • #745,301
  • Jan 13, 2013 3:07am Jan 13, 2013 3:07am
Quoting the redlion
you are joking I take it?

I don't want to think that you are suggesting that Fibonacci numbers are relevant in trading?
you know the redlion, I was joking about the word "FLY"
Patience Pays
  • #745,302
  • Jan 13, 2013 3:09am Jan 13, 2013 3:09am
Quoting fx_forever
I don't understand who drives who...

Index drives the pairs or the pairs directions gives the index value ?

Do you think that when one pair in not in correlation with all the others, it will go back to correlation ?

Thanks for explanation...
Index is combined value of a basket according to the % of each asset class that composes the basket....so an Index value is a result of the assets measured thus It cannot drive the value of the assets.

for your second question........correlation can be simplistically defined as the co movement of an asset in relation to another. In the case of the eur/usd and gbp/usd for example, they are both measured in relation to the USD so if the USD is weak both gbp, and euro will go up. However there might be some independent fundamental reasons for the strength of the euro and weakness of the gbp.

correlation is best described as a linear model of returns.....however as you can see the correlation is not perfect and it does not necessarily follow that the pound should gain as the euro gains.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp~eur.jpg Size: 68 KB
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #745,303
  • Jan 13, 2013 3:25am Jan 13, 2013 3:25am
Quoting fx_forever
I don't understand who drives who...

Index drives the pairs or the pairs directions gives the index value ?

Do you think that when one pair in not in correlation with all the others, it will go back to correlation ?

Thanks for explanation...
Hi fx_forever , try this link , you can see the action. for all currency.

http://www.forexticket.co.uk/en/tools/01-01-correlation

http://primuspersada.com/images/corr.png

Patience Pays
  • #745,304
  • Jan 13, 2013 3:26am Jan 13, 2013 3:26am
Quoting the redlion
Index is combined value of a basket according to the % of each asset class that composes the basket....so an Index value is a result of the assets measured thus It cannot drive the value of the assets.

for your second question........correlation can be simplistically defined as the co movement of an asset in relation to another. In the case of the eur/usd and gbp/usd for example, they are both measured in relation to the USD so if the USD is weak both gbp, and euro will go up. However there might be some independent fundamental reasons for the...
This is correlation between two pairs. Ok for that we have weekly correlation to show us that most of the time it is correlated and when it is not we can argue that it will be again soon.

But USD index includes EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF and SEK... I don't see any easy conclusion for a pair move because of the others move.
Attached Image
  • #745,305
  • Jan 13, 2013 3:29am Jan 13, 2013 3:29am
Quoting fx_forever
This is correlation between two pairs. Ok for that we have weekly correlation to show us that most of the time it is correlated and when it is not we can argue that it will be again soon.

But USD index includes EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF and SEK... I don't see any easy conclusion for a pair move because of the others move.
Triangular arbitrage is one reason, with the previously mentioned shared fundamentals being another, especially geopolitical fundies.
  • #745,306
  • Jan 13, 2013 3:33am Jan 13, 2013 3:33am
I don't understand you follow up comment.

but I think you are saying that why do pairs move in relation to each other?


USD is the reserve currency of the world, everything is measured in relation to US Dollars. In fx there are the Majors, the exotics and synthetics.


EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD



USD


JPY, CHF, CAD, .........(example of an exotic MXN)


the only pair that requires no USD synthetic composition is EUR/JPY



synthetics like EUR/GBP, or GBP/JPY

are composed of EUR/usd and GBP/usd
GBP/usd usd/JPY


if this was not your question , perhaps you could re state it.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #745,307
  • Jan 13, 2013 3:39am Jan 13, 2013 3:39am
Quoting fdjauzak
Hi fx_forever , try this link , you can see the action. for all currency.

http://www.forexticket.co.uk/en/tools/01-01-correlation


Thanks.

I already had a look at correlation ideas and know this good website. Between two pairs it is easier to read than the USD Index.

But i don't have a very well defined strategy for that so when i am not sure, i prefer staying out. I think JPY has a big potential (goes from correlated to anti-correlated quite fast) but i need one year or two to very well understand that.
  • #745,308
  • Jan 13, 2013 3:46am Jan 13, 2013 3:46am
Quoting fx_forever
Thanks.

I already had a look at correlation ideas and know this good website. Between two pairs it is easier to read than the USD Index.

But i don't have a very well defined strategy for that so when i am not sure, i prefer staying out. I think JPY has a big potential (goes from correlated to anti-correlated quite fast) but i need one year or two to very well understand that.
here .... you might want to study then the historical closing prices for the JPY and the Euro



Attached File(s)
File Type: csv euro.csv   65 KB | 292 downloads



Attached File(s)
File Type: csv jpy.csv   191 KB | 305 downloads



although I am afraid the technicals and the correlation reversion that you want to carve an edge out of might not help you as much as you think.

perhaps you should understand the actions and the reasons for such actions of the BOJ
perhaps you should understand a bit of macro economics
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #745,309
  • Jan 13, 2013 4:07am Jan 13, 2013 4:07am
Yes i will.

Let's go back to the EURUSD.
  • #745,310
  • Jan 13, 2013 4:19am Jan 13, 2013 4:19am
Quoting fx_forever
Thanks.

I already had a look at correlation ideas and know this good website. Between two pairs it is easier to read than the USD Index.

But i don't have a very well defined strategy for that so when i am not sure, i prefer staying out. I think JPY has a big potential (goes from correlated to anti-correlated quite fast) but i need one year or two to very well understand that.
this is the link for usd index

http://www.signalfinancialgroup.com/...ationDX.php#DX

http://primuspersada.com/images/usdindex.png
Patience Pays
  • #745,311
  • Jan 13, 2013 4:31am Jan 13, 2013 4:31am
Quoting Ihate2lose
This could be true
I think it is true

The monthly, weekly and daily Euro TL's are all going up
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #745,312
  • Jan 13, 2013 5:07am Jan 13, 2013 5:07am
Quoting Ihate2lose
This could be true
Usd-index candle closed slightly above 50%, I think there should be side ways for several days before making it's move,either up(1/3) or down(2/3) , with fresh supply above and not so virgin demand below.

http://primuspersada.com/images/usdindexdaily.png

Patience Pays
  • #745,313
  • Jan 13, 2013 6:11am Jan 13, 2013 6:11am
can anyone see an inverse head and shoulders pattern on EU charts? thanks in adv
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #745,314
  • Jan 13, 2013 6:15am Jan 13, 2013 6:15am
Quoting Connected
can anyone see an inverse head and shoulders pattern on EU charts? thanks in adv
On what time frame ?


H4 :-D

http://primuspersada.com/images/invhns.png
Patience Pays
  • #745,315
  • Jan 13, 2013 6:28am Jan 13, 2013 6:28am
Thank you mate, someone tweeted an inverse h&s and I am not at my charts thanks again

Quoting fdjauzak
On what time frame ?


H4 :-D

http://primuspersada.com/images/invhns.png
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #745,316
  • Jan 13, 2013 6:36am Jan 13, 2013 6:36am
PS_nice pattern indi can you please tell me the name? thanks again!
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #745,317
  • Jan 13, 2013 7:55am Jan 13, 2013 7:55am
Quoting Connected
PS_nice pattern indi can you please tell me the name? thanks again!
Hi Connected.


it's ZUP_v102 22.ex4 , you google for it's new version.

Anyway , you can download my zup here

http://primuspersada.com/images/zup.ex4

there lot's of setting , you turn on and off any pattern desired, happy pipping :-D
Patience Pays
  • #745,318
  • Jan 13, 2013 8:00am Jan 13, 2013 8:00am
Hi Fdjauzak!

Ahhh the ZUP indi, nice! nice clear indi thank you for your link! much appreciated

Quoting fdjauzak
Hi Connected.


it's ZUP_v102 22.ex4 , you google for it's new version.

Anyway , you can download my zup here

http://primuspersada.com/images/zup.ex4

there lot's of setting , you turn on and off any pattern desired, happy pipping :-D
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #745,319
  • Jan 13, 2013 8:23am Jan 13, 2013 8:23am
Quoting Connected
can anyone see an inverse head and shoulders pattern on EU charts? thanks in adv
Of course we can see in daily a inverted head and shoulders.
  • #745,320
  • Jan 13, 2013 8:50am Jan 13, 2013 8:50am
Quoting guernica
Of course we can see in daily a inverted head and shoulders.
Not to forget the one in the weekly:


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: HS.png Size: 102 KB
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