EURUSD | Page 37265 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Similar Threads

MT4: how to change "EURUSD" to "#EURUSD"? 3 replies

Re: EurUsd short term 15 replies

did oanda just drop its spread for eurusd to 1 pip? 11 replies

EA for multiple lot limit order for EURUSD 0 replies

NFP nice bump up on EURUSD 2 replies

Attachments: EURUSD
Exit Attachments

EURUSD

  • #745,281
  • Jan 12, 2013 8:13pm Jan 12, 2013 8:13pm
Quoting Vachus
Even the Aussi dollar retraced and closed the daily on more than 50 percent and the NZD more than 100 percent ... so i don't think i'm in denial or something , there are some solid facts that support not buying in this rally. Also you noticed how actually NY was kind of leading the move - which is very strange for Europeans news to be moved by the Americans. Even low volume session or late NY they were pushing it higher. Something to add to the list !


@Yelena : The yen card will serve no good , in fact the 5 weekly candles on E/j from doesn't...
It's Q 4 earning reports in the S&P perhaps that was causing some re-balancing of positions and investment outflows from USD, we still have debt ceiling debacle and the trillion dollar coin ......I tend to agree that the fundamentals should be viewed as the search for yield and reactive to the amount of risk in the markets....not much perceived risk and you got outflow from safe heavens...as Yelena pointed out.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #745,282
  • Jan 12, 2013 8:28pm Jan 12, 2013 8:28pm
I wish to know much more about Q3 or Q4 package,

Treasury, Fed Oppose Using Platinum Coin to Avoid Debt Limit

it's so obvious that this will be a much better news for Eur/Usd pair with this kind of news.
  • #745,283
  • Jan 12, 2013 8:37pm Jan 12, 2013 8:37pm
Quoting the redlion
what do you mean by correlation?


the correlation coefficient of the eur/usd and usd/chf for the past 500 trading days is -.75 for the past 21 trading days is -.97 (using arithmetic returns, Oanda prices)

the correlation coefficent of eur/usd and gbp/usd for the past 500 trading days is .73 and for the past 21 trading days is .80 (using arithmetic returns, Oanda prices)


and in response to fx0703 retail market is about 10% or forex market share......i have no idea how much oanda is representative of retail market......i have doubts whether...
I was looking at short term moves. When we saw our initial breakout, cable rose as it typically does and the franc fell. What didn't happen was an extended reaction on day two for either the pound or the franc, which is what bothers me. I can post what I see if you like, just let me know.

Quoting Ihate2lose
I wish to know much more about Q3 or Q4 package,

Treasury, Fed Oppose Using Platinum Coin to Avoid Debt Limit

it's so obvious that this will be a much better news for Eur/Usd pair with this kind of news.
That was a joke, I don't think any educated person took it seriously.
  • #745,284
  • Jan 12, 2013 8:46pm Jan 12, 2013 8:46pm
Quoting Kanzler
I was looking at short term moves. When we saw our initial breakout, cable rose as it typically does and the franc fell. What didn't happen was an extended reaction on day two for either the pound or the franc, which is what bothers me. I can post what I see if you like, just let me know.



That was a joke, I don't think any educated person took it seriously.
sure....I always thought of correlation coefficients of returns as in a linear model.......so what you are talking about is the magnitude and standard deviations in the said currencies using the chart to estimate it correct?


are you accounting for typical differences in standard deviations?
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #745,285
  • Jan 12, 2013 8:56pm Jan 12, 2013 8:56pm
Quoting the redlion
sure....I always thought of correlation coefficients of returns as in a linear model.......so what you are talking about is the magnitude and standard deviations in the said currencies using the chart to estimate it correct?


are you accounting for typical differences in standard deviations?
Rather, how each pair behaved after the move. A rule of thumb, taken from your correlation coefficients, is that price of the Pound should rise with the Euro, and fall with the Franc. As you can see in the attached graphs, after the first move, the correlation starts to fall apart with the pound retracing its gains from the main move instead of continuing to rise, and the Franc behaving similarly.

Perhaps my view is too simplistic, but lacking what I see as a meaningful trigger for a move of that magnitude and a failure of the other pairs to follow suit makes me a little mistrustful. A retracement back to the original breakout level might change that.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.png Size: 56 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.png Size: 59 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF.png Size: 56 KB
  • #745,286
  • Jan 12, 2013 9:56pm Jan 12, 2013 9:56pm
I am eyeing the 1.34 level as well to see if a short could be implemented there......in march, april, may of 2012 the euro reached as high as 1.3463 before turning south towards 1.22.
this is purely from a technical perspective...... however I have learned that technicals are not the entire picture.....
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #745,287
  • Jan 12, 2013 9:59pm Jan 12, 2013 9:59pm
Quoting fx0703
I see very high EUR/USD short positions on Oanda. Assuming it kind of represents market as a whole, is that why the short squeeze going on with this rally. If that is the case the pull back may not happen till a lot of these positions are neutralized. Does that make sense ? I see there are many talented tech analysts/chartists on this site. May be somebody can comment on this.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1358016545
Next couple of days are very important we are nearing the levels that could confirm further bullish bias. I haven't trade this pair in a while because there's way easier money out there but this is what I see. Technically this pair is bullish unless it fails at levels above.

http://i1356.photobucket.com/albums/...pse93443ef.jpg
It works till it doesn't
  • #745,288
  • Jan 12, 2013 10:09pm Jan 12, 2013 10:09pm
Quoting the redlion
I am eyeing the 1.34 level as well to see if a short could be implemented there......in march, april, may of 2012 the euro reached as high as 1.3463 before turning south towards 1.22.
this is purely from a technical perspective...... however I have learned that technicals are not the entire picture.....
The next level should be around the 1.3380 mark where we have an old price pivot. Personally what I'm hoping for is a drop down to the first of our broken supply levels, around 1.3150, where we may get a good clean entry when resistance turned support kicks in.
  • #745,289
  • Jan 12, 2013 10:15pm Jan 12, 2013 10:15pm
Quoting the redlion
I am eyeing the 1.34 level as well to see if a short could be implemented there......in march, april, may of 2012 the euro reached as high as 1.3463 before turning south towards 1.22.
this is purely from a technical perspective...... however I have learned that technicals are not the entire picture.....
I'd wait to see if supply level at 1.3500/3600 holds there way to close to current price & the volatility on this pair has increased a bit. It wouldn't be surprise me to see stops ran up thru 1.3500/3600., But If 1.3400 fails it should be followed by a bounce where risk will be clearly defined for a short. Same goes for 1.3500/3600 if its tested and fails. I never try to find the turning point I wait for the second chance so I can get larger size on with more confidence & higher probability of success.
It works till it doesn't
  • #745,290
  • Jan 12, 2013 10:21pm Jan 12, 2013 10:21pm
This is the real question & should have many of the answers people are looking for.

http://i1356.photobucket.com/albums/...ps551cccd5.jpg
It works till it doesn't
  • #745,291
  • Jan 12, 2013 10:58pm Jan 12, 2013 10:58pm
Quoting Ken A
USDX is not a good indicator to measure EUR due to distortion from YEN. Check the Sept 2012 LL and recent LL then compare it to EUR/USD. US 10-Y and 30-Y will help to see the money flow.
I disagree I don't think the yen is distorting the usdx. Look at these charts. Looks like an inverse. Ones going for supply the other for demand.

http://i1356.photobucket.com/albums/...ps551cccd5.jpg

http://i1356.photobucket.com/albums/...pse93443ef.jpg
It works till it doesn't
  • #745,292
  • Jan 12, 2013 11:11pm Jan 12, 2013 11:11pm
Quoting Ken A
I mean have a look where USDX was when EUR/USD @1.3172 back in Sept 2012 post QE3 then compare recent USDX with recent 1.3172. You will see what I mean. On my cell right now no access to charts.
I know what your talking about but just keep in mind the inverse correlation is not 1:1 & never was but it very close & IMO still a very good gauge of direction.
It works till it doesn't
  • #745,293
  • Jan 12, 2013 11:18pm Jan 12, 2013 11:18pm
Here's a zoomed in view from date range your talking about. The inverse correlation is very close to 1:1. Both charts are exactly 85 days.

http://i1356.photobucket.com/albums/...ps92e4512d.jpg

http://i1356.photobucket.com/albums/...psfdfc57a1.jpg
It works till it doesn't
  • #745,294
  • Jan 13, 2013 12:54am Jan 13, 2013 12:54am
This could be true
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dollardown.png Size: 60 KB
  • #745,295
  • Jan 13, 2013 1:14am Jan 13, 2013 1:14am
Quoting the redlion
and in response to fx0703 retail market is about 10% or forex market share......i have no idea how much oanda is representative of retail market......i have doubts whether the sample population used by Oanda to show their retail positions is actually indicative of the Interbank, real market positions.
This is a FACT. Everybody should write it down... Its difficult to know the exact volume exchanged in the Forex. And countries will not tell you exactly how many foreign currencies they hold because this is an economic weapon (with the fact they can "print" their own money as much as they want).

Moreover an open position for one day or 5 weeks can be completly different for WHY the positions are still open... And we don't know that.
  • #745,296
  • Jan 13, 2013 2:34am Jan 13, 2013 2:34am
Quoting millelire
ok, but you can't know in advance which trade will be r:r 1:2, which 1:4, etc... every trade will have a different ev, so imo r:r doesn't make much sense
For me it makes sense to know your risk before entering the trade.

The reward: i tested it for a 1:1 reward to see, at least, if the strategy was profitable in the past.

If the market gives me more, i'll be happy.
  • #745,297
  • Jan 13, 2013 2:39am Jan 13, 2013 2:39am
As a fibo fan, for Me,
The reason of the recent jump was the price got great support from 3 bull fibos at almost the same level .

On monday , it'll retrace to minimum retracement ratio of the last leg, I think to 23.6, then it will fly ..

http://primuspersada.com/images/reason.png
Patience Pays
  • #745,298
  • Jan 13, 2013 2:52am Jan 13, 2013 2:52am
Quoting fdjauzak
As a fibo fan, for Me,
The reason of the recent jump was the price got great support from 3 bull fibos at almost the same level .

On monday , it'll retrace to minimum retracement ratio of the last leg, I think to 23.6, then it will fly ..

http://primuspersada.com/images/reason.png
you are joking I take it?

I don't want to think that you are suggesting that Fibonacci numbers are relevant in trading?
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #745,299
  • Jan 13, 2013 2:55am Jan 13, 2013 2:55am
Quoting DaEdge
I know what your talking about but just keep in mind the inverse correlation is not 1:1 & never was but it very close & IMO still a very good gauge of direction.
I don't understand who drives who...

Index drives the pairs or the pairs directions gives the index value ?

Do you think that when one pair in not in correlation with all the others, it will go back to correlation ?

Thanks for explanation...
  • #745,300
  • Edited 3:23am Jan 13, 2013 2:59am | Edited 3:23am
How long I have to hold my buy position?

I have closed buy order in another live account at 4 spread broker for a nice +214 pips, even in my demo account for +108 pips. Those are the result for 1 day trade on Friday.

I have open new account at 5 spread broker, and open 3 new buy order on Thursday, now floating +685 pips. But for how long i have to hold this open position? I'm bearish mode for tomorrow Monday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H1.JPG Size: 94 KB
Dangdut is a music of my country
447 traders viewing now