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  • #745,261
  • Jan 12, 2013 9:00am Jan 12, 2013 9:00am
thx everyone for the replies
  • #745,262
  • Jan 12, 2013 9:05am Jan 12, 2013 9:05am

weekends joke, enjoy, bye

http://sphotos-a.ak.fbcdn.net/hphoto...39358035_n.jpg

I'll shop after the drop
  • #745,263
  • Jan 12, 2013 9:07am Jan 12, 2013 9:07am
Quoting yelena
always 1% which is 0.35 lots. -100pips = 10% loss, +100pips = +10% gain. since it is € then there's a cross rate. +100pips may only be 9% growth.
too much imo... 35,000 units will be 2,62€ per pip
  • #745,264
  • Jan 12, 2013 9:20am Jan 12, 2013 9:20am
Quoting millelire
hi everyone, I'd like to ask you which money management should I follow with a small account (3500€), and if with that sum is sensed to trade forex
thx in advance
3500€ account using a 2.5% MM trade loss maximum = 87.50€ per trade max loss = 113 pip drawdown or stoploss max.

With that account level using a maximum of 2 lots EurUsd (1.54€ p/pip) you would have a max SL of about 56 pips per trade at a 2.5% MM base.

If you trade with clean entrys in a trending market, you could do good.
  • #745,265
  • Jan 12, 2013 9:21am Jan 12, 2013 9:21am
Quoting millelire
or maybe a margincall
Not possible as i take care to act as a professionnal trader even if i have a low money account : always risking a fixed amount of money and never widden my stops (i.e. my risk). With that i master my risk and focus on my strategy to be profitable (> 50% with R/R of 1).

Margin Call is for newbies or fools.
  • #745,266
  • Jan 12, 2013 9:33am Jan 12, 2013 9:33am
Quoting fx_forever
Not possible as i take care to act as a professionnal trader even if i have a low money account : always risking a fixed amount of money and never widden my stops (i.e. my risk). With that i master my risk and focus on my strategy to be profitable (> 50% with R/R of 1).

Margin Call is for newbies or fools.
ok, but you can't know in advance which trade will be r:r 1:2, which 1:4, etc... every trade will have a different ev, so imo r:r doesn't make much sense
you are talking like the guy becoming millionaire selling pin bars, inside, etc... SELLING, not trading them
  • #745,267
  • Jan 12, 2013 9:34am Jan 12, 2013 9:34am
Quoting Cuso
3500€ account using a 2.5% MM trade loss maximum = 87.50€ per trade max loss = 113 pip drawdown or stoploss max.

With that account level using a maximum of 2 lots EurUsd (1.54€ p/pip) you would have a max SL of about 56 pips per trade at a 2.5% MM base.

If you trade with clean entrys in a trending market, you could do good.
what? 2 lots are 14,xx€ per pip
(if I understood what you said)
  • #745,268
  • Jan 12, 2013 9:34am Jan 12, 2013 9:34am
Quoting Cuso
3500€ account using a 2.5% MM trade loss maximum = 87.50€ per trade max loss = 113 pip drawdown or stoploss max.

With that account level using a maximum of 2 lots EurUsd (1.54€ p/pip) you would have a max SL of about 56 pips per trade at a 2.5% MM base.

If you trade with clean entrys in a trending market, you could do good.
The number of lot is not very important for me...

It is better choose an amount to risk (for example 2,5% for a trade), MAKE A TRADE PLAN, and adjust the volume according to it.

For example now i could make the following plan "it will go up as W1 chart shows me so clearly, all indicators are on "green" for EUR climb but short-term price action tell me it can slightly retrace to 1.33."

So you will take a long for SL 100 pips below for example. That 100 pips must make 2,5% of your capital and you adjust the volume for that.

Never can have any margin call...

Yes the volume will be rather 0.1 lot than 2 lots but who cares ?

Moreover with a microlot broker u can adjust accuratly your risk (0.01 lot step)
  • #745,269
  • Edited 10:02am Jan 12, 2013 9:42am | Edited 10:02am
Quoting millelire
ok, but you can't know in advance which trade will be r:r 1:2, which 1:4, etc... every trade will have a different ev, so imo r:r doesn't make much sense
you are talking like the guy becoming millionaire selling pin bars, inside, etc... SELLING, not trading them
I don't sell anything, sorry.

I trade with my hard-earned money. That's why i don't laugh so much !

I try to learn from old traders and that makes me a little bit humble. I try to follow their footpath but this is very difficult.

Some 10-years traders use the Pin Bar / Inside Bar / Fakey tools with success. But they use more tools than that.

I am a newbie of two years and a half and i think of other newbies... so many pitfalls for us !

I try to repeat what i learn from the old traders. Maybe it is wrong but is is likely to be better than other talks.
  • #745,270
  • Jan 12, 2013 9:52am Jan 12, 2013 9:52am
Once u r an addicted like me, margin will just never exist in the first place.
I scalp, once scalp fail, I do wing, once Wing fail I just wait until another -500 pips to pass by.
It did not kill me until I try those JPD pairs, oh man,.. Always try to trade with familiar pairs, lesson learned.
For the next 2 months, Bull will be in favor, with 600 % margin, it will be fine to go for bull all the way.
  • #745,271
  • Jan 12, 2013 10:08am Jan 12, 2013 10:08am
Quoting millelire
what? 2 lots are 14,xx€ per pip
(if I understood what you said)
2 lots of 10K
  • #745,272
  • Jan 12, 2013 10:20am Jan 12, 2013 10:20am
Quoting Ken A
1% X 100 strike = bye bye
2.5% x 40 strike = bye bye
100% x 1 strike = BYE BYE
200% x 1/2 strike = RIP
Have a nice weekend.

BYE BYE
so i'ts only matter of time
  • #745,273
  • Jan 12, 2013 10:25am Jan 12, 2013 10:25am
Quoting Vachus
Am i the only one who doesn't believe this rally , or i'm in denial ?! ( And please don't bring the Yen card ). I started initially to think about what has happened in the last week and draw a conclusion. I have reached two solid arguments - they are both against each other :

1- For the rally : There should be Three authentic moves , One that started Late July and delivered Euro from 1.25 to 1.32 - in which the path was up. The second was to deliver Euro as low as 1.26 to be bought again , in which the path was down. The third was to retake the...
You know Vachus you're not the only one. Regardless of the reasons for the rally, there are still some technical things to be resolved before I'm sold on this thing. As pointed out the other day, the Franc and the Pound aren't maintaining correlation with the cripple, and that bothers me quite a bit. Until that correlation is resolved, I'm going to maintain my doubts. Specifically, the EU moved through two levels of significant supply while the Franc only broke one level of corresponding demand, and is currently meandering in the middle of the range set between the next demand level and the recently breached one. The Pound did rise on the first day's move but managed to retrace 50% of it the second day, closing 25% from the top of the original rally. None of that is consistent with the second day's EU move. Moreover, there hasn't been a significant retest of any of the broken levels yet. If one was going to get on board the rally, that would be the place to do it at. So I think there's a little bit of time to come to conclusions on this yet.
  • #745,274
  • Jan 12, 2013 10:47am Jan 12, 2013 10:47am
There was something showing in the opposite direction, when the USD in fact got stronger relative to gold before fiscal cliff solution, the EUR went even stronger. That indicates that if there would be stabilization in USD based fiat regime , EUR will move up a lot. Now , as contrary to that, if there is general weakening in fiat money status ( and thus appreciation of gold and silver in USD) , USD will GAIN against every currency.


It does not depend on EURozone actions much. I guess its inherently fixed between the two currencies that if fiat stabilizes, EUR is too devaluated now, if fiat moves down ( vs. gold in general, loses trust more, USG debt goes up) , EUR is not as good as USD.


Logical. So based on USG debt development one can decide longer term EUR USD direction. Basically, after they finish with debates, government closing etc which might be sometime summer 2013 or later, and incur more USG debt, EUR shall really tank. Before that, move up. 1,39-1,40.
  • #745,275
  • Jan 12, 2013 10:51am Jan 12, 2013 10:51am
I see very high EUR/USD short positions on Oanda. Assuming it kind of represents market as a whole, is that why the short squeeze going on with this rally. If that is the case the pull back may not happen till a lot of these positions are neutralized. Does that make sense ? I see there are many talented tech analysts/chartists on this site. May be somebody can comment on this.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1358016545
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jan122013 shor ratio.JPG Size: 38 KB
  • #745,276
  • Jan 12, 2013 1:55pm Jan 12, 2013 1:55pm
Quoting davidsayli
It is possible to see this shape. Firstly it can drop to the 1.3250 begining of next week.
After it will rise again. And Head and shoulders pattern can occur...

GL


EUR/USD H1 CHART

http://i46.tinypic.com/2lvbehz.gif

I think it can drop to the 1.3250 on monday. Some indicators shows that Euro was over-bought on H1 and H4 chart...

GL
  • #745,277
  • Jan 12, 2013 2:13pm Jan 12, 2013 2:13pm
Hello everyone,

anybody wants to participate in interactive trading this coming week?
i.e. Arranging particular time, sitting and viewing charts as well as interacting and advising on trades.

Let me Know

Kind regards
  • #745,278
  • Jan 12, 2013 5:20pm Jan 12, 2013 5:20pm
Quoting Kanzler
You know Vachus you're not the only one. Regardless of the reasons for the rally, there are still some technical things to be resolved before I'm sold on this thing. As pointed out the other day, the Franc and the Pound aren't maintaining correlation with the cripple, and that bothers me quite a bit. Until that correlation is resolved, I'm going to maintain my doubts. Specifically, the EU moved through two levels of significant supply while the Franc only broke one level of corresponding demand, and is currently meandering in the middle of...

Even the Aussi dollar retraced and closed the daily on more than 50 percent and the NZD more than 100 percent ... so i don't think i'm in denial or something , there are some solid facts that support not buying in this rally. Also you noticed how actually NY was kind of leading the move - which is very strange for Europeans news to be moved by the Americans. Even low volume session or late NY they were pushing it higher. Something to add to the list !


@Yelena : The yen card will serve no good , in fact the 5 weekly candles on E/j from doesn't even match 20 percentage of the same 6 weekly candles on EURUSD. So, i really don't understand why this Yen card is being played at the same time, ignoring the fact that Yen is inflating on all the majors - so , if someone buying Euros against Yen, his also buying dollars against the yen at the same time ...
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #745,279
  • Jan 12, 2013 5:56pm Jan 12, 2013 5:56pm
Quoting Vachus
@Yelena : The yen card will serve no good , in fact the 5 weekly candles on E/j from doesn't even match 20 percentage of the same 6 weekly candles on EURUSD. So, i really don't understand why this Yen card is being played at the same time, ignoring the fact that Yen is inflating on all the majors - so , if someone buying Euros against Yen, his also buying dollars against the yen at the same time ...
then it is a matter of how much is being bought of what. apparently, Yen is being bought more, heavy outflow of Yen from Japan and inflow of USD to Japan. i heard Fed printed lotsa $ last quarter (and so did BOJ). that fund has to be invested somewhere. where else to better invest but on another safe haven to better ensure return of capital (Japan). now where shall BOJ invest those Yen. aha! CHF the other safe haven. making CHFJPY rise too. oh, SNB printed lots too, where to next? ahhhhhhhh, commodity currencies (AUD and NZD). now, they all rise against the $. not to mention AUD has the best interest rate by far. it's that heavy dumping of money. but they can't give it to us because we are end consumers, meaning no interest will bare except credit that will again have to be written off 10 years from now.

so much $ in the world, but we can't have it because we are non-interest bearing.
  • #745,280
  • Jan 12, 2013 6:04pm Jan 12, 2013 6:04pm
Quoting Kanzler
You know Vachus you're not the only one. Regardless of the reasons for the rally, there are still some technical things to be resolved before I'm sold on this thing. As pointed out the other day, the Franc and the Pound aren't maintaining correlation with the cripple, and that bothers me quite a bit. Until that correlation is resolved, I'm going to maintain my doubts. Specifically, the EU moved through two levels of significant supply while the Franc only broke one level of corresponding demand, and is currently meandering in the middle of the range...
what do you mean by correlation?


the correlation coefficient of the eur/usd and usd/chf for the past 500 trading days is -.75 for the past 21 trading days is -.97 (using arithmetic returns, Oanda prices)

the correlation coefficent of eur/usd and gbp/usd for the past 500 trading days is .73 and for the past 21 trading days is .80 (using arithmetic returns, Oanda prices)


and in response to fx0703 retail market is about 10% or forex market share......i have no idea how much oanda is representative of retail market......i have doubts whether the sample population used by Oanda to show their retail positions is actually indicative of the Interbank, real market positions.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
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