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  • #745,241
  • Jan 12, 2013 7:03am Jan 12, 2013 7:03am
Quoting fdjauzak
On my D1 chart, and prices I watch.

Down to 1.3268 should close above 1.3290 then up
Or if it dips lower to 1.3186 and get support , it'll shoot up and hit target
if it breaks the 50 % ret ;the there will be consolidation and compression; and if it can manage to climb and close above 13290 we can hit our target at FE 100-at 1.3435

http://primuspersada.com/images/whatsp.png

Can u explain to me how to do the fan?
  • #745,242
  • Jan 12, 2013 7:12am Jan 12, 2013 7:12am
Quoting Ihate2lose
Can u explain to me how to do the fan?
Hi Ihate2lose,

I think i'll be easier and quicker to just paste the link explaining the fibo fan my friend ; below, you can see your self in detail .

What's on my D1 chart is not fibo fan, it's TL

http://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com...ibonacci3.html
http://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com...ibonacci3.html
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/...#axzz2HXgrtiIZ
Patience Pays
  • #745,243
  • Edited 7:49am Jan 12, 2013 7:34am | Edited 7:49am
Am i the only one who doesn't believe this rally , or i'm in denial ?! ( And please don't bring the Yen card ). I started initially to think about what has happened in the last week and draw a conclusion. I have reached two solid arguments - they are both against each other :

1- For the rally : There should be Three authentic moves , One that started Late July and delivered Euro from 1.25 to 1.32 - in which the path was up. The second was to deliver Euro as low as 1.26 to be bought again , in which the path was down. The third was to retake the buy as high as possible which i think 1.36. Therefore, any drops or lifts during this directional moves was either interruption or noise created by daily political nonsense. Price at 1.30 early of December was on its original path, but when the announcement of rate cut and was ready to go higher, the news interrupted and caused drop to be protected and here we are on the original path. Plus, equities didn't see its selling off or profit taking - which means assets allocated are expecting high results and increased value. That should provide more opium for buying and increasing exposure to riskier assets.

2- Against this rally : EurUSD has rallied for the last six month on major policies changes - not political thin air and not statements. It doesn't rally on Dragni's speech but his policies. His one big rally was because the announcement of OMT - which was demanded as a firewall for peripheries. And this one was going to be shorted ended , but Ben draw the QE3 and Euro rallied on that. So, these kind of movements are solid changes that price should react to it. But since the beginning of December nothing major changed in Europe , in fact all data suggest that Germany is entering a recession not a recovery. Its true that Europe as a whole will be in recovery mode - but that is not guaranteed or most certain. ( France is the tick bomb of Europe, remember) Things doesn't run fast in Europe , and the last debt crisis is not far away. Add to that, there will be a growing uncertainty wither USA will be able to solve the debt ceiling - the latest negotiations failure should provide a clear statement that its not an easy job. So, You should have a month Slightly bearish or Strongly ranging not a bullish ones.


These were part the arguments i have been thinking about and trying to understand or at least make an educated guess of what's happening. Its very clear to me that no one predicted this move or saw it coming , provided with solid facts or even explanation. I couldn't find any supportive material for a move with such gradidute & gravity - Funny thing Bloomberg supported the Euro surge on a Goldman Sachs trade recommendation , Like JPMorgan didn't recommend buying at 1.30 when we saw it plunging to 1.26. Price is at a 4 months range that is few months before and given the uncertainty surrounding , The Month should be range.

* I included the Chart for more insights ..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWeekly-1.30.1.35Connsildation.jpg Size: 90 KB
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #745,244
  • Jan 12, 2013 7:34am Jan 12, 2013 7:34am
Watching Alice in Wonderland." He is hatter. He is mad/mad as a hatter/. U are mad too. Everyone here
is mad. Otherwise u alice wouldn't be here"
Just like in forex, waiting for wonders in Wonderland
  • #745,245
  • Jan 12, 2013 7:52am Jan 12, 2013 7:52am
Quoting Ihate2lose
If any 1 knows a good broker with meta trader 4/5 for U.S account holder, plz let me know.

Check out IBFX. $25 fee for bank wire withdrawal. Credit card and check are free. But the way you fund your account is the only way that you can withdrawal it. I've been with them for a year and a half and have never had a problem with them.
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #745,246
  • Jan 12, 2013 8:02am Jan 12, 2013 8:02am
[quote=Vachus;6359756]Its very clear to me that no one predicted this move or saw it coming , provided with solid facts or even explanation.[quote]


I saw it coming on New Year's Eve, after I drew my chart up. That chart told me that I better be in front of my monitor on 01-10-13. That's why I don't trade fundies. That's where feelings and opinions come into play. But a properly drawn chart tells me "when" to trade. Where price meets time. Because when time is up, like it was on the 10th, look out.
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #745,247
  • Jan 12, 2013 8:06am Jan 12, 2013 8:06am
Quoting ForExtraPips

I saw it coming on New Year's Eve, after I drew my chart up. That chart told me that I better be in front of my monitor on 01-10-13. That's why I don't trade fundies. That's where feelings and opinions come into play. But a properly drawn chart tells me "when" to trade. Where price meets time. Because when time is up, like it was on the 10th, look out.
So, i'm suppose to take your reason for trade on faith ?! you saw the draw to 1.30 to and the b/o from there ! To have a day on your chart just because there will be announcement is not a big thing, which direction is the more challenging and how big the fall or rise and till how many days ...

* You mind if you share the post
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #745,248
  • Jan 12, 2013 8:07am Jan 12, 2013 8:07am
Quoting Vachus
Am i the only one who doesn't believe this rally , or i'm in denial ?! ( And please don't bring the Yen card ). I started initially to think about what has happened in the last week and draw a conclusion. I have reached two solid arguments - they are both against each other :

1- For the rally : There should be Three authentic moves , One that started Late July and delivered Euro from 1.25 to 1.32 - in which the path was up. The second was to deliver Euro as low as 1.26 to be bought again , in which the path was down. The third was to retake...

Anything possible in wonderland
  • #745,249
  • Edited 8:22am Jan 12, 2013 8:18am | Edited 8:22am
Quoting Vachus
So, i'm suppose to take your reason for trade on faith ?! you saw the draw to 1.30 to and the b/o from there ! To have a day on your chart just because there will be announcement is not a big thing, which direction is the more challenging and how big the fall or rise and till how many days ...

* You mind if you share the post
What I said is that I knew something was going to happen on the 10th. I didn't say that I knew where it would go to and from. Just that I knew time was up on the 10th. Whenever price is ahead of time or time is ahead of price, you'll get stuff like this that happened on the 10th.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...10#post6350510

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post6331868
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #745,250
  • Edited 8:31am Jan 12, 2013 8:20am | Edited 8:31am
Quoting meromar
Anything possible in wonderland
No, not everything is possible - this a price that moves where assets are moving. Not imaginary assets , they people's money and sweat. And they will do everything they can to protect & increase it. We are not in wonderland , we are in chaotic environment but it has boundaries & limits. And one of its first law : If it happened without a reason, Its you who don't know.


ForExtrapip : I read the posts and i'm not familiar with that kind of analysis - but for me technical anaylsis can only work on short period of times are it represent people's emotions and feelings to certian price areas. Which make even a daily candle on a bigger set of candles kind of useless ! As it require the same fundamentals conditions and sentiment that was at this period of time ... which kind of impossible to be repeated ! But i see that you were correct and i wish you the same luck with the next one( I thought you took the day from the Calender , as i do sometimes and leave it on the chart to remind me )
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #745,251
  • Jan 12, 2013 8:34am Jan 12, 2013 8:34am
eurusd D1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #745,252
  • Jan 12, 2013 9:20am Jan 12, 2013 9:20am
If your margin can survive this monthly candle, then your bull/cow won't be slaughter until February is over.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: monthlycandle.png Size: 27 KB
  • #745,253
  • Jan 12, 2013 9:53am Jan 12, 2013 9:53am
Quoting Ihate2lose
Withdraw fund to credit card should be free but I got a replied back this week from my broker and she said she can only transfer into my credit card back 500 usd for free, and wire=20 usd or check = free, because I can only do transfer to credit card for every 6 months. What a bullshit Alpari. Before I withdraw fund every 500 dollars I win and never such thing happened.
I want to find another broker, they seem to try to cheat me.
I have 2 alpari pro account.
1 require 10 k to open but I never use it because I like Meta4 platform only.
and...
I use Interactive brokers, they dont have mt4 & min account size is 10k, but first wire of the month is free & as long as your account is flat no open positions the money is in your bank account in less than 2 hours.

BTW ninja trader is much better than mt4 IMO, theres a lot more options with ninja than mt4.
It works till it doesn't
  • #745,254
  • Edited 11:06am Jan 12, 2013 10:33am | Edited 11:06am
Quoting S.C.yeow83
eurusd D1
Yes, break.

Why ?
It CLOSES well above 1.33.

What can the price do now ?
Retrace to 1.33 or not (support now). Monday (weak but nobody knows...), tuesday, .. maybe never !

Clearly nothing shows me this retrace now... i would wait for a signal to enter.

And everybdy can see on the W1 chart that we are around the level of 2004 that is the cause of small sideways during the following ZigZag period. Probably 1.35 will be special.
  • #745,255
  • Edited 10:57am Jan 12, 2013 10:33am | Edited 10:57am
Quoting Vachus
Am i the only one who doesn't believe this rally , or i'm in denial ?!
em afraid you are in denial my friend. starting July 2012 from the valley we have registered HH and HL. imho, if we break that yellow solid line, then it's a steep climb with the violet dash line and an official HH from Feb 2012 highs, break out until selling on May 2013.

for fundi: have to bring out Yen, the only culprit i could point my fingers to. they are all, literally, just dividends and divisors of each other, right? (eur/usd x usd/jpy) = eur/jpy
1.3342 x 89.18=118.98 (current bid rates)
1.3342 x 80 = 100.73 (current bid vs stronger UJ)
1.3342 x 95 = 126.74 (current bid vs weaker UJ)

and Japan's exports have fallen to dangerous levels (??) with no BOJ intervention for the last 26 months.

something's gotta give, right? and it's in BOJ's interest to devaluate UJ (95.00) to help it's exports and increase USD reserves. because lesser exports = lesser jobs = higher inventory = deflation, something like that.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #745,256
  • Jan 12, 2013 10:44am Jan 12, 2013 10:44am
hi everyone, I'd like to ask you which money management should I follow with a small account (3500€), and if with that sum is sensed to trade forex
thx in advance
  • #745,257
  • Jan 12, 2013 10:53am Jan 12, 2013 10:53am
Quoting millelire
hi everyone, I'd like to ask you which money management should I follow with a small account (3500€), and if with that sum is sensed to trade forex
thx in advance
always 1% which is 0.35 lots. -100pips = 10% loss, +100pips = +10% gain. since it is € then there's a cross rate. +100pips may only be 9% growth.
  • #745,258
  • Jan 12, 2013 10:53am Jan 12, 2013 10:53am
Somebody asked if someone would go long on EU & EJ now.

As long as nobody on earth has the need to deleverage their risky assets, the VIX is at such low levels and staying there, why should these pairs suddenly reverse course and fall 400 points. Momentum is with the bulls in almost every asset class, COT numbers are showing us how the big boys are thinking, and nobody is bombing anyone thank god.

Take a good look at the monthly from September 2006 till November 2007, about 2500 pips of uptrend in EurUsd. As long as the EU doesn't fall apart, why can this not repeat itself? We've "only" moved a palsy 1350 pips or so in the last 6 months, and everyone now is starting to eye the 1.3850 or so. The EJ pair hasn't even reached the 38.2 retracement from the August 2008 falloff, and the Japanese are actively trying to devalue the yen.

I'm sure there are position traders that can long EU or EJ today and not even blink an eye. I'd like to see Mercy Seat's trade log, he was buying all the way down to 1.3000 just like Hansel was dropping pebbles to held him and Gretel find their way home.
  • #745,259
  • Edited 11:10am Jan 12, 2013 10:54am | Edited 11:10am
Quoting millelire
hi everyone, I'd like to ask you which money management should I follow with a small account (3500€), and if with that sum is sensed to trade forex
thx in advance
To TRADE forex you only need at least 100$.
To LIVE FROM forex you need at least 100 000$.

I do that as a turtle race... 5 years for example. Maybe the market will give me 100K (am 1000e now) !
  • #745,260
  • Jan 12, 2013 11:00am Jan 12, 2013 11:00am
Quoting fx_forever
To TRADE forex you only need at least 100$.
To LIVE FROM forex you need at least 100 000$.

I do that as a turtle race... 5 years for example. Maybe the market wil lgive me 100K !
or maybe a margincall
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