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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #64,861
  • Jan 11, 2013 11:18am Jan 11, 2013 11:18am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
A Draghi?


Could be one of the possible names But it should be applicable for all instruments
I call it "F**k off, you are already too late"
69
  • #64,862
  • Jan 11, 2013 11:23am Jan 11, 2013 11:23am
Quoting Likerty


Could be one of the possible names But it should be applicable for all instruments
I call it "F**k off, you are already too late"
AMEN. That is a good name
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #64,863
  • Jan 11, 2013 11:45am Jan 11, 2013 11:45am
Quoting Likerty

Could be one of the possible names But it should be applicable for all instruments
I call it "F**k off, you are already too late"
I call it the auger. If you stand still and position your a$$ properly, it won't hurt one bit

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...duty_auger.jpg

Here's a clean one...

http://www.jthammer.com/gallery/21AugerF.JPG
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,864
  • Jan 11, 2013 11:52am Jan 11, 2013 11:52am
Quoting PipTrapper
I call it the auger. If you stand still and position your a$$ properly, it won't hurt one bit



Here's a clean one...
Wouldnt that depend on the size of the (hold your tongue and say "apple")
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #64,865
  • Jan 11, 2013 12:15pm Jan 11, 2013 12:15pm
What up guys a view..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 13jan11.1h.PNG Size: 56 KB
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #64,866
  • Jan 11, 2013 12:21pm Jan 11, 2013 12:21pm
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Wouldnt that depend on the size of the (hold your tongue and say "apple")
lol you guys are hilarious. great analogy (pun intended yet again)
  • #64,867
  • Jan 11, 2013 12:25pm Jan 11, 2013 12:25pm
Quoting D2tz
lol you guys are hilarious. great analogy (pun intended yet again)
D2tz you made me bust a gut on that one. I have spit on my screen. Good thing I quit drinking coffee earlier.

Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #64,868
  • Jan 11, 2013 12:29pm Jan 11, 2013 12:29pm
Quoting PipTrapper
I call it the auger. If you stand still and position your a$$ properly, it won't hurt one bit

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...duty_auger.jpg
OMG! Is that dirt is the actual crap???
69
  • #64,869
  • Jan 11, 2013 12:33pm Jan 11, 2013 12:33pm
Interesting take from Coaching FX on the Super Mario pressurer...

Well done Mario – or better – well played

Reflecting on Mario Draghi’s press conference yesterday, it is clear to me that the ECB president is playing a very political role and that he possibly is the strongest confidence indicator we have in the market.

When asked about whether the decision on short-term rates was unanimous, he listed several improvements that has taken place over the last six months. They are facts – but no news as we know all of them. But by putting them together the way he does and the way he says it, it expresses confidence in a way that adds a new dimension to the details and as such it becomes a strong and EURO supportive statement.

He mentioned the confidence indices for the Euro-zone. What he did not mention is that these figures are very different among members – and it goes along the lines of those you can draw from debt problems. It is among the weaker economies that you need lower rates – not for Germany.

He mentioned that the balance sheet of the ECB is shrinking, which is of course because they don’t buy assets like they used to early in 2012. By the time they start doing this, it will increase again.
He also mentioned that the macros are weak, which is known. But as confidence indices almost always are ahead of macros, he assumes the macros to improve as well as he repeated they will in the 2nd half of this year.

The difference between him and markets is that markets always want to be ahead of the curve and therefore strengthen a currency before the figures support the strength. It is rather unusual that central bankers do the same. They normally wait for the figures to prove their point.
It is cleverly done if you want to show and give confidence. It is risky done if confidence indices again turn around.

The confidence factor Mr. Draghi expresses has substantial impact. Six months ago he said the ECB would do whatever would be needed to be done and if we were to believe him that will be enough. Six months later we know that they have had to do very little because the market adjusted most of what the ECB otherwise would have to do.

You play out confidence that way successfully and the market does the job for you.
It is politically clever and it has paid off. I am still unsure though whether this is the role of a central banker.
The good mood from yesterday might hang in for couple of sessions more and take EURUSD short-term even higher.

Medium-term I see no reasons to become more bullish from what he said. What he did was to trigger a move within what I have set out as a range and to give a boost to a market that had been a bit in limbo from the start of the year.

Well done Mario – or better – well played.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #64,870
  • Jan 11, 2013 1:01pm Jan 11, 2013 1:01pm
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Interesting take from Coaching FX on the Super Mario pressurer...

Well done Mario – or better – well played

Reflecting on Mario Draghi’s press conference yesterday, it is clear to me that the ECB president is playing a very political role and that he possibly is the strongest confidence indicator we have in the market.

When asked about whether the decision on short-term rates was unanimous, he listed several improvements...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,871
  • Jan 11, 2013 1:02pm Jan 11, 2013 1:02pm
In response to my post above I have a new name for M.D. No not Mad Dog (well....)

"Mario the Monetary Magician". Sure used the smoke and mirrors pretty well.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #64,872
  • Jan 11, 2013 1:52pm Jan 11, 2013 1:52pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Looks like it really is only EUR strength all across the board when looking at the various crosses. Wonder what is going on...
Baring something dramatic like a .50 cut or a QE announcement, I don't do fundamentals. And in this case of the euro, it's been a benefit. I really don't know how to justify this move up in the euro. Probably has to do with the market having an overwhelming opinion, but maybe not. I can't say for sure.

All I know is what I read in the charts. And fortunately, my interpretation has been correct.

Now it seems as though the eur/gbp is due for a retracement in the channel. And I see the pound setting up for a nice bullish leg. I know this thread is about the euro but I find intramarket analysis invaluable. So I suspect the euro won't be the star of the forex show next week, the pound is due for some attention. But things can change so quickly in this market so my road map is certainly written in pencil. A strong move below 1.6075 in the cable and my opinion will reform as quick as a teenage boy on prom night.

All in all, I wouldn't sell euros on a bet right now. It's not as though pips can't be made but I see much easier ways to do so for a little while.

P.S. The eur/aud and eur/nzd definitely deserve a look. They may cool down for a few days but I think those are going to be uber important this year. GL
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #64,873
  • Jan 11, 2013 1:55pm Jan 11, 2013 1:55pm
Quoting TexasforEX
B

P.S. The eur/aud and eur/nzd definitely deserve a look. They may cool down for a few days but I think those are going to be uber important this year. GL
these crosses are great gauges for spotting turning points on the USD crosses IMO
It works till it doesn't
  • #64,874
  • Jan 11, 2013 2:04pm Jan 11, 2013 2:04pm
Hey DaEdge and TexasforEX. Great point on the X's. What pairs do you watch besides the eur/aud & eur/nzd & eur/gbp? A lot of traders were into the E/J. Is that one wore out as a leading indo?
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #64,875
  • Jan 11, 2013 2:08pm Jan 11, 2013 2:08pm
Rick Santelli @ CNBC TV

"If you want to short the market on economic fundamentals, you'll be right, but you'll go broke waiting for the trade to work"

For you Rick >>
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,876
  • Jan 11, 2013 2:12pm Jan 11, 2013 2:12pm
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Hey DaEdge and TexasforEX. Great point on the X's. What pairs do you watch besides the eur/aud & eur/nzd & eur/gbp? A lot of traders were into the E/J. Is that one wore out as a leading indo?
Hi Ya JD. Right now anything to do with the yen is such an overwhelming one way trade, based on fundamentals (haha), that any sort of intramarket analysis is out the window.

I am looking for a buy the rumor, sell the news sort of set up in the yen though. Maybe their next meeting when they announce more bond buying, a big flush out will be in order. It's something I'll be trying to spot.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #64,877
  • Jan 11, 2013 2:13pm Jan 11, 2013 2:13pm
Sidebar for TexasforEX: Do you live in the Lone-star? I used to live in Dallas in the 90's. Great place the metroplex. If any state succeeded the US Texas would be the place to be.

Since it was the banking capital of the SW at that time the place was loaded with women. Gave my sack a work out....

Surprised there arent any Texans that look 1/2 like me. Hell maybe there are. Is child support retroactive?
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #64,878
  • Jan 11, 2013 2:14pm Jan 11, 2013 2:14pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Hi Ya JD. Right now anything to do with the yen is such an overwhelming one way trade, based on fundamentals (haha), that any sort of intramarket analysis is out the window.

I am looking for a buy the rumor, sell the news sort of set up in the yen though. Maybe their next meeting when they announce more bond buying, a big flush out will be in order. It's something I'll be trying to spot.
Thanks Texas. I thought so. Hopefully the sell off will drop the Euro more than the Bennie Buck.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #64,879
  • Jan 11, 2013 2:23pm Jan 11, 2013 2:23pm
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Sidebar for TexasforEX: Do you live in the Lone-star? I used to live in Dallas in the 90's. Great place the metroplex. If any state succeeded the US Texas would be the place to be.

Since it was the banking capital of the SW at that time the place was loaded with women. Gave my sack a work out....

Surprised there arent any Texans that look 1/2 like me. Hell maybe there are. Is child support retroactive?


Texas women are the best. I lived in Austin for 15 years until my work and family brought me up to Chicago. I can't wait to get back to the Atx. Oh my goodness do I love that city. Wine, women and song night in and night out. I spent some time in DFW, but never lived there.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #64,880
  • Jan 11, 2013 2:26pm Jan 11, 2013 2:26pm
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Hey DaEdge and TexasforEX. Great point on the X's. What pairs do you watch besides the eur/aud & eur/nzd & eur/gbp? A lot of traders were into the E/J. Is that one wore out as a leading indo?
Here a chart I posted in eurusd thread early morning in US session yesterday. I took the trade & am currently still in it. But you could have easily used it to speculate on euro strength yesterday or for anticipation of nzd weakness today based on it close of yesterday's US session. Gbp/aud & gbp/nzd are good for good as well for gbp.


http://i1356.photobucket.com/albums/...ps4c6935d9.jpg

This is today's action

http://i1356.photobucket.com/albums/...psb090c7e0.jpg

Now look at e/u chart today

http://i1356.photobucket.com/albums/...ps16c7e323.jpg

& here's n/u chart today

http://i1356.photobucket.com/albums/...ps79efb5a3.jpg
It works till it doesn't
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