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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #64,821
  • Jan 11, 2013 4:09am Jan 11, 2013 4:09am
USD seems to be attempting to recover from yesterday's blow to the head with a fireplace poker, but the Euro itself is not letting up.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,822
  • Jan 11, 2013 4:10am Jan 11, 2013 4:10am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yep. Pretty faq'd up if you ask me... But that's the markets for you. It's a game of chicken to see who capitulates first, and everyone seems to be stubborn today

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Yea, I'm wondering if there were more retail shorts for EUR/USD then any other pair which is why the Big Boys are trying to squeeze this particular pair. I don't know... If they were going for yield I would think they would short EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD or long AUD/JPY and AUD/USD. Not too sure what to make of this.

Looking to put another long on NZD/JPY and AUD/JPY though once H1 shows "over sold" using Williams %. Hopefully we get that tonight. I see a lot more room towards the upside for JPY cross pairs.
  • #64,823
  • Jan 11, 2013 4:14am Jan 11, 2013 4:14am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Yea, I'm wondering if there were more retail shorts for EUR/USD then any other pair which is why the Big Boys are trying to squeeze this particular pair. I don't know... If they were going for yield I would think they would short EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD or long AUD/JPY and AUD/USD. Not too sure what to make of this.

Looking to put another long on NZD/JPY and AUD/JPY though once H1 shows "over sold" using Williams %. Hopefully we get that tonight. I see a lot more room towards the upside for JPY cross pairs.
Seems to me that all the weak shorts got taken out yesterday.

I'll bet you the COT report next week shows a net positive on the pair.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,824
  • Jan 11, 2013 4:24am Jan 11, 2013 4:24am
Quoting PipTrapper
Seems to me that all the weak shorts got taken out yesterday.

I'll bet you the COT report next week shows a net positive on the pair.
Yesterday was pretty intense to say the least for EUR and GBP! LOL

Quick question in regards to USD interest rates, could this type of thing (assuming they increase) take months to do or as bonds decline interest rates rise soon after? I'm not too familiar with how this is going to work as I have never seen USD raise interest rates in the short time I've been trading. Actually, I don't think I've seen any CB raise interest rates in the past year and a half. Only cut...

I am of the belief that US will raise interest rates this year but not sure the best way to track a potential rate hike except for 10 year and 30 year bonds.
  • #64,825
  • Edited 4:36am Jan 11, 2013 4:24am | Edited 4:36am
Quoting PipTrapper
Makes sense from an intraday technical perspective. What baffles me is why the market would buy into the EZ crap.
May be Draghi equalized disbalance of uncertainty, which was disturbed after FOMC minutes? ...And it added to already ongoing uptrend
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  • #64,826
  • Jan 11, 2013 4:32am Jan 11, 2013 4:32am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Yesterday was pretty intense to say the least for EUR and GBP! LOL

Quick question in regards to USD interest rates, could this type of thing (assuming they increase) take months to do or as bonds decline interest rates rise soon after? I'm not too familiar with how this is going to work as I have never seen USD raise interest rates in the short time I've been trading. Actually, I don't think I've seen any CB raise interest rates in the past year and a half. Only cut...

I am of the belief that US will raise interest rates this year but...
No I don't see the FOMC raising rates any time this year. However, I do see them cutting back on the asset purchases. Regardless, what is more important is not whether or not they raise rates this year, but rather whether or not the market thinks they will raise rates before mid 2015. If they do, they will start to price it in gradually as the economic data (specifically the labor statistics) improves
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,827
  • Jan 11, 2013 4:34am Jan 11, 2013 4:34am
Quoting Likerty
May be Draghi equalized disbalance of uncertanty, which was disturbed after FOMC minutes? ...And it added to already ongoing uptrend
Yep... but I still do not see the logic behind it from a fundie perspective.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,828
  • Jan 11, 2013 4:37am Jan 11, 2013 4:37am
Quoting PipTrapper
No I don't see the FOMC raising rates any time this year. However, I do see them cutting back on the asset purchases. Regardless, what is more important is not whether or not they raise rates this year, but rather whether or not the market thinks they will raise rates before mid 2015. If they do, they will start to price it in gradually as the economic data (specifically the labor statistics) improves
I see, makes sense.
  • #64,829
  • Jan 11, 2013 4:37am Jan 11, 2013 4:37am
Quoting PipTrapper
USD seems to be attempting to recover from yesterday's blow to the head with a fireplace poker, but the Euro itself is not letting up.

Attachment
Okay the AUD/USD just confirmed a head and shoulders pattern on H1. So that should indicate that the E/U bull move is over for now. However, since logic has been defied so many times over the last 4 months, I would not be surprised to see the Euro rallying while the Aussie is tanking.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,830
  • Jan 11, 2013 4:37am Jan 11, 2013 4:37am
Quoting PipTrapper
Makes sense from an intraday technical perspective. What baffles me is why the market would buy into the EZ crap.

The demand shift in the spanish bond market certainly helps the sentiment
  • #64,831
  • Jan 11, 2013 4:50am Jan 11, 2013 4:50am
Quoting lumesh
The demand shift in the spanish bond market certainly helps the sentiment
Ahh I see. A few lemmings jump off the cliff and the rest follow.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,832
  • Jan 11, 2013 4:51am Jan 11, 2013 4:51am
France President Hollande says EU's challenge is now growth, not employment, he says austerity measures have caused suffering.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,833
  • Jan 11, 2013 4:54am Jan 11, 2013 4:54am
PT, do you see any potential fundamental reasons for JPY demand to be increased for..?
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  • #64,834
  • Jan 11, 2013 4:55am Jan 11, 2013 4:55am
Quoting PipTrapper
Ahh I see. A few lemmings jump off the cliff and the rest follow.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R62zcvQl4Nc

Absolutely !
  • #64,835
  • Jan 11, 2013 5:06am Jan 11, 2013 5:06am
Quoting Likerty
PT, do you see any potential fundamental reasons for JPY demand to be increased for..?
Only through speculation that the BOJ will not play ball with Abe... but at this point it is far fetched to believe that would happen... not that it wouldn't though.

I do see a very strong technical reason for JPY strength though, but only as a short term pullback before U/J rockets up to 95.xx

I have placed a buy limit on U/J at 85.60, but may enter manually before that if PA dictates.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,836
  • Jan 11, 2013 5:11am Jan 11, 2013 5:11am
I see a potential inverted H/S forming on USDX

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,837
  • Jan 11, 2013 5:21am Jan 11, 2013 5:21am
Quoting PipTrapper
Okay the AUD/USD just confirmed a head and shoulders pattern on H1. So that should indicate that the E/U bull move is over for now. However, since logic has been defied so many times over the last 4 months, I would not be surprised to see the Euro rallying while the Aussie is tanking.

what constitutes as a confirmation of H&S pattern in your opinion ?

A/U managed to still close above the neckline on the hourly...would you need an hourly break to confirm the pattern ?
  • #64,838
  • Jan 11, 2013 5:24am Jan 11, 2013 5:24am
Quoting PipTrapper
Only through speculation that the BOJ will not play ball with Abe... but at this point it is far fetched to believe that would happen... not that it wouldn't though.

I do see a very strong technical reason for JPY strength though, but only as a short term pullback before U/J rockets up to 95.xx

I have placed a buy limit on U/J at 85.60, but may enter manually before that if PA dictates.
I have 94.50 as ultimate target, but it will not happen sooner than at the end of May.

P.S. I hope I will have an oportunity to quote myself)
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  • #64,839
  • Jan 11, 2013 5:41am Jan 11, 2013 5:41am
Quoting lumesh
what constitutes as a confirmation of H&S pattern in your opinion ?

A/U managed to still close above the neckline on the hourly...would you need an hourly break to confirm the pattern ?
You're right. I was a bit premature on that call. I was mistakenly watching the M30 chart.

but still. It looks toppy
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,840
  • Jan 11, 2013 5:43am Jan 11, 2013 5:43am
Quoting Likerty
I have 94.50 as ultimate target, but it will not happen sooner than at the end of May.

P.S. I hope I will have an oportunity to quote myself)
me too
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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