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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #64,801
  • Jan 11, 2013 1:50am Jan 11, 2013 1:50am
Quoting PipTrapper
In order to answer that question, one has to understand yesterday's move. To put it simply, I don't understand it at all. Draghi said he's not doing any more to help the economy and it is now up to the politicians to sort it out. Okay, I understand that implies there will be no rate cut, but I hardly see why that would be positive for the mid term outlook of the EZ economies. Whilst Draghi did say that the ECB expects the economy to start improving this year, he also said that there are still significant downside risks. Even if it is only a rate...
hi PT,

I think the market was expecting a rte cut and when they didn't get it, BOOM... Remember that Draghi did hint at cuts last month and he has made a 180 turn
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #64,802
  • Jan 11, 2013 1:51am Jan 11, 2013 1:51am
Quoting Connected
Thank you PT think we may break out to the upside shortly
after a 200+ pip day, the likelihood is a break to the downside. However, from a chart pattern perspective, box trades can go either way and the measured target would be 100% of the height of the box.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,803
  • Jan 11, 2013 1:52am Jan 11, 2013 1:52am
Quoting Connected
Thank you PT think we may break out to the upside shortly

Pawpaw1000 ‏@Pawpaw1000 Same as yesterday, still see #EurUsd touching 3280 and perhaps having a go at 3300 but we need retrace so looking to short...
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #64,804
  • Jan 11, 2013 1:53am Jan 11, 2013 1:53am
Quoting pawpaw1000
hi PT,

I think the market was expecting a rte cut and when they didn't get it, BOOM... Remember that Draghi did hint at cuts last month and he has made a 180 turn
Yes I agree, but what was already priced in was not an ECB rate cut, but rather and tightening of the FOMC policy as was revealed in the minutes last week. Therefore, as a disappointment of not getting a rate cut, I think the move was a bit overdone.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,805
  • Jan 11, 2013 1:56am Jan 11, 2013 1:56am
Thanks PT for your insight, I hear you and will be watching this carefully

Quoting PipTrapper
after a 200+ pip day, the likelihood is a break to the downside. However, from a chart pattern perspective, box trades can go either way and the measured target would be 100% of the height of the box.
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #64,806
  • Jan 11, 2013 2:15am Jan 11, 2013 2:15am
Got a nice long in several accounts now turning down but with a tight stop Thanks Halkins Pipe Trapper and Currency man

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Trading Consultants Inc JJG
  • #64,807
  • Jan 11, 2013 2:29am Jan 11, 2013 2:29am
Posted by PipTrapper
In order to answer that question, one has to understand yesterday's move. To put it simply, I don't understand it at all. Draghi said he's not doing any more to help the economy and it is now up to the politicians to sort it out. Okay, I understand that implies there will be no rate cut, but I hardly see why that would be positive for the mid term outlook of the EZ economies. Whilst Draghi did say that the ECB expects the economy to start improving this year, he also said that there are still significant downside risks. Even if it is only a rate...
hi PT,

PipTrapper
Yesterday was the very reason I avoid the fundi analysis ...... you are among the best I have ever seen and when you have no answer imagine a dimly lit bulb.like me... So for me when I transitioned from Trend Trading ala Richard Dennis Turtle Traders to this chap named Ken Mann who is turning out competent traders in 6 months or less depending on the time commitment I said Heck let's rock. Look at my demos...... they mirror for the most part my live accounts. I just posted results from yesterday on EURUSD and set up into London
Trading Consultants Inc JJG
  • #64,808
  • Jan 11, 2013 2:40am Jan 11, 2013 2:40am
Quoting PipTrapper
after a 200+ pip day, the likelihood is a break to the downside. However, from a chart pattern perspective, box trades can go either way and the measured target would be 100% of the height of the box.
U.K. someone has a recommendation of going euro short...again. So, up we should go.

Plus, the move happened inside the previous high so it's just as likely to boost into new highs.

I still think some of the strength has to do with the yen trade. But it's immaterial.

Bottomline is, the strength of the U.S. recovery has little to no impact on the dollar. The mindset is still the same. If U.S. recovers, chances are that others will make an economic bottom too (expectation vise anyway)
  • #64,809
  • Jan 11, 2013 2:44am Jan 11, 2013 2:44am
My screen for EURUSD set up ...... trades entered stops created now wait for the action
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Trading Consultants Inc JJG
  • #64,810
  • Jan 11, 2013 2:58am Jan 11, 2013 2:58am
Quoting PipTrapper

So my take from all this is that the market is very hungry for yield and they will look for any excuse to chase it... bubble or not.
I doubt it. The hungriness for yield should be best seen where there actually is yield. And euraud isn't going down. I do think that the impatient ones desperately want to short euros with tight stops.

Given that the market is 1000+ points from the bottom everyone and their mother expects a reversal for some time now. Being the most liquid pair, this thing is hard to come when there is little upside bias.

On the fundie front, everyone puts their money into spanish bonds for one reason to another which is definitely a sentiment boost to euro traders thinking that the crisis is over.
  • #64,811
  • Jan 11, 2013 3:08am Jan 11, 2013 3:08am
Quoting halkins
A little bit of market fundamental news (from Alpari)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmmPYW1qBVc
Thanks halkins.

We also have a website, Alpari NewsRoom which is dedicated to bringing traders up to the minute market analysis on a wide range of markets.

The site is updated regularly with the following commentary throughout the day including:

- At least two technical analysis pieces with charts included
- 2 pre-market open articles for European and US sessions
- A European closing round up
- An FX comment
- The daily market update video

Alex

________
Alexander Chadwick
Alpari (UK) Representative
  • #64,812
  • Jan 11, 2013 3:23am Jan 11, 2013 3:23am
Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,813
  • Jan 11, 2013 3:36am Jan 11, 2013 3:36am
Quoting PipTrapper
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_a_iYjaquU
PT,
what were you doing all week..? Are you entered in to winter bear sleep mode?
Yesterday here was very depressing atmosphere without your comemnts on ongoing events..
69
  • #64,814
  • Jan 11, 2013 3:37am Jan 11, 2013 3:37am
Futures performance for today so far

Looks like EUR and USD futures are tied neck and neck for a 0.1% gain.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,815
  • Jan 11, 2013 3:39am Jan 11, 2013 3:39am
Quoting Likerty
PT,
what were you doing all week..? Are you entered in to winter bear sleep mode?
Yesterday here was very depressing atmosphere without your comemnts on ongoing events..
My apologies Likerty. I recently moved house and I was quite busy still unpacking boxes and settling in. Then the reaction to the ECB press conference pissed me off and I shut down my terminal for the night.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,816
  • Jan 11, 2013 3:47am Jan 11, 2013 3:47am
Come on E/U... Be a good little girl and give us a daily chart double top... Pretty please
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,817
  • Jan 11, 2013 3:56am Jan 11, 2013 3:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
My apologies Likerty. I recently moved house and I was quite busy still unpacking boxes and settling in. Then the reaction to the ECB press conference pissed me off and I shut down my terminal for the night.
Apology accepted, but not necessary
MY guess is that what helped E/U move yesterday - helps it to creep higher this morning - folks just constantly trying to fade it.. Clusters of SL limit orders in thight areas just above the top near by attracts the price more than profit targets which are too far away to influence PA.. And without new low there wont be any significant profit taking..
69
  • #64,818
  • Jan 11, 2013 3:58am Jan 11, 2013 3:58am
Looks like it really is only EUR strength all across the board when looking at the various crosses. Wonder what is going on...
  • #64,819
  • Jan 11, 2013 4:04am Jan 11, 2013 4:04am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Looks like it really is only EUR strength all across the board when looking at the various crosses. Wonder what is going on...
Yep. Pretty faq'd up if you ask me... But that's the markets for you. It's a game of chicken to see who capitulates first, and everyone seems to be stubborn today

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,820
  • Jan 11, 2013 4:06am Jan 11, 2013 4:06am
Quoting Likerty
Apology accepted, but not necessary
MY guess is that what helped E/U move yesterday - helps it to creep higher this morning - folks just constantly trying to fade it.. Clusters of SL limit orders in thight areas just above the top near by attracts the price more than profit targets which are too far away to influence PA.. And without new low there wont be any significant profit taking..
Makes sense from an intraday technical perspective. What baffles me is why the market would buy into the EZ crap.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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