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Sonic R. System

  • #42,721
  • Jan 10, 2013 1:55am Jan 10, 2013 1:55am
Quoting traderathome
EU Comment:

Yesterday Sonic pointed out the 1.306x support area as the area for PA to break down thru, to show good bearishness. The break down came late in the day. Since then, PA has back tested local resistance in the same area. And the Dragon is now resuming good down angle. However, there are over six hours to go until the LO. And almost twelve hours to go to the USD high impact release. What if a setup occurs prior?

No one knows what BM (Big Money) is going to do today, or when. It is a reasonable bet though that even if PA forms...
EU Comment (Cont'd):

The bears are putting on some of their ensnaring bull action already. There are still hours to go until the major impact releases, which means there is plenty of time for the bears to establish a higher price (for their shorting) and let PA stay there until the releases. It is unlikely whatever higher price levels are achieved before the releases will be the highest levels of the day. My bet is the bears will save the highest prices for later, to be hit in conjunction with the releases, some time afterwards, because that would give them the opportunity to hit the stops on a lot of shorts others entered into prematurely today. The upper whole number, even RDH could be reached if the bears decide it is to be so in order to clean out "weak hand" shorts, and use that liquidity to get their own short orders filled at the highs.
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  • #42,722
  • Jan 10, 2013 4:49am Jan 10, 2013 4:49am
Hello TAH,
Would this trade have been a bad trade to take. there was a L, a H and HL in there, but your commentary of the EU being bearish bias kept me out of it. Did you take this trade. if no why not.
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My help is in the name of the Lord who made heaven and earth.
  • #42,723
  • Jan 10, 2013 5:35am Jan 10, 2013 5:35am
Nothing is pump & Dump as always..
it may be a real pump up, follow by more pump ups.

just have an edge, set ur SL and manage along..


sonic
  • #42,724
  • Jan 10, 2013 8:01am Jan 10, 2013 8:01am
Quoting sonicdeejay
Nothing is pump & Dump as always..
it may be a real pump up, follow by more pump ups.

just have an edge, set ur SL and manage along..


sonic
2 hr & 25 min later later..


Told Cha..

Sonic
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  • #42,725
  • Jan 10, 2013 8:46am Jan 10, 2013 8:46am
Nothing is as random as it seems

Sonikers,,, I am not feeling well, so that I am not trading since Tuesday... So, here I am, writing about the market as how I see it,,,
The 100+ pips big move on Thursday, based ECB rate decision wasn't an surprise move or random as an un-informed trader may see it...
In fact, the behind-the-curtain moved by Smart Money (SM) has been preparing since last Tuesday...

Here is my takes, Look @ the circles.

Circle 1,2. As the mkt moved lower, The vol are getting higher.. It looks like a accumalation of Longs by SM. As a astute Soniker, it is time to TP your short.

Circle 3. Mkt get lower as the move to attract more shortists, as it accumulate more Longs. As I would always, "Too Late to short, too early to Long"..

Circle 4. Mkt tried to break out, it was a nice indication.

Circle 5. Mkt tried to shake out weak longs and attract more shorts during Asia session, Take note volume bounce with small spread bar.

Black Line. Above Dragon, Classic Long Signal..

Red Line. Put SL at the region and it is below last swing/

Green Line.. First TP..


The rest is the history..

As you can see, the real deal is in Long time frame. SM planned this moved few days back and the draw down was about 40~60 pips or more in this setup...
You will get whipped left and right if you opt for very tight SL such as 10~20 pips with unreasonable TP.

I am active in facebook page lately, and I am surprise to see a lot of people offering signal services. When I look at their screenshot, surprisingly their profits are over leavrage.. it is like $50 per/pip.. But they would rather say "I made $150 on the trade while the trade was just 3 pips winner"...
I wonder how these scams survive in the world..


Rgds,
Sonic
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  • #42,726
  • Jan 10, 2013 8:57am Jan 10, 2013 8:57am
I feel good, +237 pips for today

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  • #42,727
  • Jan 10, 2013 9:00am Jan 10, 2013 9:00am
Quoting SCopier
I feel good, +237 pips for today

Attachment

Congrat pandawan... but remember... "A trade show his true color when the trade turns". So be humble as well.. Cheers..


http://blogs.citypages.com/blotter/YouDaMan.jpg

Sonic
  • #42,728
  • Jan 10, 2013 12:11pm Jan 10, 2013 12:11pm
VSA update on AU

My initial prediction proved false due to the correlation of the euro taking a huge leap over the dollar.
AU has moved up through an area of heavy selling in the past, and is peaking out the top side of the range. Resistance could now become support and look for higher movements.

That euro spike sure is huge isn't it?

It sucks being wrong.

I was looking through my trade record via my profile and it seems I'm pretty horrible at predicting the AUD movement, where my EU track record seems to be pretty good. I should probably investigate this and focus just on EU if this is a valid pattern and not just a string of bad luck.
  • #42,729
  • Jan 10, 2013 5:09pm Jan 10, 2013 5:09pm
Quoting Mezzy
VSA update on AU

My initial prediction proved false due to the correlation of the euro taking a huge leap over the dollar.
AU has moved up through an area of heavy selling in the past, and is peaking out the top side of the range. Resistance could now become support and look for higher movements.

That euro spike sure is huge isn't it?

It sucks being wrong.

I was looking through my trade record via my profile and it seems I'm pretty horrible at predicting the AUD movement, where my EU track record seems to be pretty good. I should...
No risk taking = no profit or no loss..

just have a edge, have a reasonable SL and manage along..


Cheers,
Sonic
  • #42,730
  • Jan 10, 2013 5:20pm Jan 10, 2013 5:20pm
Trying to learn TL from this Master and combine with Sonic R System

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  • #42,731
  • Jan 10, 2013 8:22pm Jan 10, 2013 8:22pm
Quoting traderathome
AU: Entered Scout short. Will group with other previous running shorts in next post on this subject.
AU: Entered short. This is trade #5, and the last for this pair group.
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  • #42,732
  • Edited 8:59pm Jan 10, 2013 8:47pm | Edited 8:59pm
Quoting traderathome
AU: Entered short. This is trade #5, and the last for this pair group.
Becareful Tah, in my viewed today is still Long, my dragon is still Blue and fat.

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  • #42,733
  • Jan 10, 2013 8:52pm Jan 10, 2013 8:52pm
Quoting traderathome
AU: Entered short. This is trade #5, and the last for this pair group.
There is hope for my failed trade
My SL was not hit and it's headed in the right direction.

AUD never seems to agree with my logic.

Thanks for the encouragement Sonic!

TAH thanks for pointing out a solid entry.

-Mezzy
  • #42,734
  • Jan 10, 2013 9:15pm Jan 10, 2013 9:15pm
Quoting traderathome
AU: Entered short. This is trade #5, and the last for this pair group.

Looking valid, and it is considered CT, so be a hawk..

once SL set, do not move...

Never average ur losing position....

Let t mkt decide..


Sonic
  • #42,735
  • Edited 11:16pm Jan 10, 2013 10:00pm | Edited 11:16pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
Nothing is as random as it seems

Sonikers,,, I am not feeling well, so that I am not trading since Tuesday... So, here I am, writing about the market as how I see it,,,
The 100+ pips big move on Thursday, based ECB rate decision wasn't an surprise move or random as an un-informed trader may see it...
In fact, the behind-the-curtain moved by Smart Money (SM) has been preparing since last Tuesday...

Here is my takes, Look @ the circles.

Circle 1,2. As the mkt moved lower, The vol are getting higher.. It looks like a accumalation...
Gee, Master Sonicdeejay, I don't think you've spoken so much at one time all year!

It truely is a fine post, Sonic. I really enjoyed it. Too bad we can't figure such things out beforehand, right? One thing bothers me, though. How does the market figure that the ECB not increasing interest rates is worth pumping EU 200+ pips? Well, that is a rhetroical question. Yep, moves can be pre-planned (I relate to that), and the amount of the moves are what they normally are no matter what the news is,....100+, or 150+, or 200+, etc. pips. And there hasn't been a good 200+ piper in quite a while, so randomly.....we were due for one!

Great post, Sonic,
-tah
  • #42,736
  • Jan 10, 2013 10:05pm Jan 10, 2013 10:05pm
This is my viewed (but I can wrong too)

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  • #42,737
  • Jan 10, 2013 10:10pm Jan 10, 2013 10:10pm
Quoting SCopier
Becareful Tah, in my viewed today is still Long, my dragon is still Blue and fat.
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AU:

Yes, H1 Dragon still bullish. On M15 there is the potential for H&S with target close to RDL. Price might finish the week back near, or in yesterday's range.
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  • #42,738
  • Edited Jan 11, 2013 12:28am Jan 10, 2013 10:38pm | Edited Jan 11, 2013 12:28am
Quoting Albertdkpllh
Hello TAH,
Would this trade have been a bad trade to take. there was a L, a H and HL in there, but your commentary of the EU being bearish bias kept me out of it. Did you take this trade. if no why not.
EU:

Everything I commented on yesterday regarding this was in the context of a bear premise, and I said so. I have also been saying that with any next candle things can start to change the whole picture. Indeed, this is what happened with EU. I went to bed early yesterday (just after LO) and completely missed the fireworks. No trade, but that is ok.

Sonic mentioned the ECB release (no increase in rates) as the trigger the market was waiting for to pump the price. Note, however, AU and GU also got pumped yesterday. AU was the first out of the gate. Later came EU and GU simultaneously. Maybe more behind all this than just ECB. Perhaps valid news for each one, or maybe all these moves would have come off even if yesterday was "newsless". And look at UChf, dropped like a rock. ECB has nothing to do with this one either. Why then, because unemployment claims over the holidays were 4k more than the previous month of 367K? The "anticipated" was only 361k, which is just so much ridiculous bullshit out of the lackeys that do this stuff. They were probably told to undercut what they knew was likely. Such figures can sometimes be rigged, just like market moves can sometimes be planned to happen, news, no news, or regardless what the news.

When things happen, and why they happen are unimportant,....totally unimportant. The only thing that matters is what price is doing on the chart of the instrument being traded. There is no predicting when the market is going to mark up, or mark down prices, nor by how much, nor for what reason. We need to read our charts, that's all. And go after the best setups, and not cry when we miss a setup or when price dares to move without first giving us a setup.

EU came into yesterday bearish. I cautioned folks about entering any short prematurely. I even suggested SM might drive the price very high if the coming releases validated for them a good short opportunity, in order to first steal shorts away from others that entered prematurely and put SLs on them. Anyone thinking about that statement could easily have surmised the long trade opportunity such a drive upwards might present. Furthermore, anyone going on into the US session yesterday with an open mind (while I slept in late), and not having yet traded short (and no good London session setup to do so, either) should have clearly seen this.......
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  • #42,739
  • Jan 11, 2013 12:31am Jan 11, 2013 12:31am
EU:

Looks like H&S, but unremarkable distance to target. And Dragon is still angled up. This needs more time, maybe for another pull up and back down. If it just starts dropping, well.....thanks, but no thanks.
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  • #42,740
  • Jan 11, 2013 12:35am Jan 11, 2013 12:35am
Quoting traderathome
AU:

Yes, H1 Dragon still bullish. On M15 there is the potential for H&S with target close to RDL. Price might finish the week back near, or in yesterday's range.
AU:

PA down to neckline. LO still 1.5 hrs. off. What will FO do? Who will trigger this formation?
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