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  • #32,661
  • Jan 10, 2013 12:45am Jan 10, 2013 12:45am
Quoting brinks
I'm long but not happy to be going in heavy at these price levels maybe on a break of the high I will add
Probably gonna be a slow one waiting on EU news. Hours of boredom for seconds of excitement.
It works till it doesn't
  • #32,662
  • Jan 10, 2013 12:52am Jan 10, 2013 12:52am
Quoting DaEdge
Probably gonna be a slow one waiting on EU news. Hours of boredom for seconds of excitement.
It's funny isn't it I'm reading everywhere that the upside is nearly done in this pair.
I do think there could be a big sell the fact after the boj meeting.
  • #32,663
  • Jan 10, 2013 12:56am Jan 10, 2013 12:56am
Quoting brinks
It's funny isn't it I'm reading everywhere that the upside is nearly done in this pair.
I do think there could be a big sell the fact after the boj meeting.
Just remember things always go further than expected, & with everyone expecting a selloff the odds that it doesn't happen get much better.
It works till it doesn't
  • #32,664
  • Jan 10, 2013 1:08am Jan 10, 2013 1:08am
It seems to me like we're already stretching the upside, and IMO could see a reversal anywhere from 88.40 - 89.50.

Trade safe.
  • #32,665
  • Jan 10, 2013 1:10am Jan 10, 2013 1:10am
Quoting JollyBean
It seems to me like we're already stretching the upside, and IMO could see a reversal anywhere from 88.40 - 89.50.

Trade safe.
The same thing has been said every night for the last two months now.
It works till it doesn't
  • #32,666
  • Jan 10, 2013 1:12am Jan 10, 2013 1:12am
Quoting DaEdge
The same thing has been said every night for the last two months now.
You mean to say people have been forecasting a reversal at this price range, or simply forecasting a reversal for the past 2 months?
  • #32,667
  • Jan 10, 2013 1:14am Jan 10, 2013 1:14am
Quoting brinks
It's funny isn't it I'm reading everywhere that the upside is nearly done in this pair.
I do think there could be a big sell the fact after the boj meeting.

i've been reading the same thing... i think it's a trick. i don't believe it.
  • #32,668
  • Jan 10, 2013 1:16am Jan 10, 2013 1:16am
Quoting JollyBean
You mean to say people have been forecasting a reversal at this price range, or simply forecasting a reversal for the past 2 months?
Not these specific levels per se just every night for a while now.
It works till it doesn't
  • #32,669
  • Jan 10, 2013 1:21am Jan 10, 2013 1:21am
What's the next target if it breaks the high?

89.30 - 90?
  • #32,670
  • Jan 10, 2013 1:29am Jan 10, 2013 1:29am
Quoting brinks
What's the next target if it breaks the high?

89.30 - 90?
I see 90-91 area
It works till it doesn't
  • #32,671
  • Jan 10, 2013 1:30am Jan 10, 2013 1:30am
USD/JPY faces a grind ahead of 88.50
Written by Pete Jackson
January 10, 2013 at 07:28 GMT
Currently sitting just below the Asian highs of 88.22, there are reportedly strong offers ahead of 88.50 which i’d assume holds a barrier. Buy stops lurk just above, and the trend looks likely to continue after some strong AUD/JPY buying to fresh 4 year highs of 93.16.
There’s also talk in the market of a large 86.75-90.75 DNT option ( I don’t know the expiry date) so expect some heavy support resistance ahead of both levels. Nearby bids start from 88.00 down to 87.80 with sell stops just below and again through 87.40
AUD/JPY sell stops are in place for a break of 92.00 (some way off i know) with bids in front in the 92.10/20 zone.
USD/JPY’s sitting at 88.18 with the AUD/JPY at the mentioned highs
  • #32,672
  • Jan 10, 2013 1:32am Jan 10, 2013 1:32am
Quoting brinks
What's the next target if it breaks the high?

89.30 - 90?

i think strong resistance from last Fri & this Sun @ 88.40 will be converted to support first. then bear trapping will continue.
  • #32,673
  • Jan 10, 2013 1:38am Jan 10, 2013 1:38am
lovely, so many traders moved to usjy thread.

that going to be the place to be in '13.
  • #32,674
  • Jan 10, 2013 1:42am Jan 10, 2013 1:42am
Quoting macroman
lovely, so many traders moved to usjy thread.

that going to be the place to be in '13.
You can thank Japan for making it interesting
  • #32,675
  • Jan 10, 2013 1:44am Jan 10, 2013 1:44am
Quoting JollyBean
You can thank Japan for making it interesting
Its about time that they did,they have been pleading with the g20 for ages about the yen strength
  • #32,676
  • Jan 10, 2013 1:46am Jan 10, 2013 1:46am
Quoting 1candlepower
i think strong resistance from last Fri & this Sun @ 88.40 will be converted to support first. then bear trapping will continue.
if it doesn't immed break out above 88.40, think i'll sell and wait since price may rattle around btwn 20/40 for a while.
  • #32,677
  • Jan 10, 2013 1:52am Jan 10, 2013 1:52am
Quoting 1candlepower
if it doesn't immed break out above 88.40, think i'll sell and wait since price may rattle around btwn 20/40 for a while.
Good luck, if it doesn't break out above 88.40, price may rattle down much lower than 20/40.

Anyway trade safe

Personally, I've got sell orders at 88.40-.50... 89.50 and one more around 91.50.
  • #32,678
  • Jan 10, 2013 2:08am Jan 10, 2013 2:08am
Quoting JollyBean
Good luck, if it doesn't break out above 88.40, price may rattle down much lower than 20/40.

Anyway trade safe

Personally, I've got sell orders at 88.40-.50... 89.50 and one more around 91.50.

my thinking is that there are a great many shorts trapped (as would be expected from the repeated application of price floors that you see here... classic and not that commonplace ...add stories floating about that give false hope of a reversal) and it's unlikely the prey will be allowed to escape unharmed. so i'd be surprised by a real pull-back of any sort

what is your reason to believe price could fall significantly?
  • #32,679
  • Jan 10, 2013 2:24am Jan 10, 2013 2:24am
Quoting 1candlepower
my thinking is that there are a great many shorts trapped (as would be expected from the repeated application of price floors that you see here... classic and not that commonplace ...add stories floating about that give false hope of a reversal) and it's unlikely the prey will be allowed to escape unharmed. so i'd be surprised by a real pull-back of any sort

what is your reason to believe price could fall significantly?
Yup... you're definitely right in the sense that there's always short/long traps as price gets stretched and when the general expectation is a reversal. So IMO (and my strategy) is always to be safe and prepare for both outcomes - Reversal and a continuation

Regarding price falling, let's just say that if it retraces based on Fib levels, you can easily see the drop way more than 20/40.

My strategy regarding price going south, whether it's a retracement or a reversal, is that I'd first like to see price test support levels of 84.20/85.50, which it has yet to do, both of which are some major pips from the current level.

Also, looking at various indicators, the stretch in price is getting a little extreme.

Taking all these into consideration, is how I've come up with my shorting strategy.

Of course, then there's also a backup plan of "What if" price continues north without a significant retracement.
  • #32,680
  • Jan 10, 2013 2:35am Jan 10, 2013 2:35am
Quoting JollyBean
Yup... you're definitely right in the sense that there's always short/long traps as price gets stretched and when the general expectation is a reversal. ....... these into consideration, is how I've come up with my shorting strategy.

Of course, then there's also a backup plan of "What if" price continues north without a significant retracement.

usually i'd give the same weight you have to all the things you mention... but the floor sequence is so neat in this case --- i only see this geometric neatness about 2 times a year, so i pay a lot of attention to it.

...of course as i write this .uj has just fallen suddenly through 20 ...i guess everything can be up for grabs! ... but a small breach of the floor soon after laying it's not uncommon.
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