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  • #743,801
  • Jan 9, 2013 3:47pm Jan 9, 2013 3:47pm
Quoting Jay Walker
There is still enough things made in Japan to have a significant, positive impact.

It won't solve the problem, but it will help. Hopefully until their old people kick the bucket and the population pyramid gets into a better shape.
im curious... when their older population kicks the bucket... especially those rich ones who holds BOJ bonds all the way back from the 1970s....
if they die.... who becomes the owner of those bonds?

Are assets like Bonds transferrable? can it be given as inheritance? or does the goverment void them once they die?

i mean seemingly if the public holds the debt of the japanese government...
so if the public dies.... the japanese could literally write off those debts?
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #743,802
  • Jan 9, 2013 3:50pm Jan 9, 2013 3:50pm
Quoting fxtyrant

Are assets like Bonds transferrable?
Yes.
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #743,803
  • Jan 9, 2013 3:52pm Jan 9, 2013 3:52pm
Quoting fxtyrant
im curious... when their older population kicks the bucket... especially those rich ones who holds BOJ bonds all the way back from the 1970s....
if they die.... who becomes the owner of those bonds?

Are assets like Bonds transferrable? can it be given as inheritance? or does the goverment void them once they die?

i mean seemingly if the public holds the debt of the japanese government...
so if the public dies.... the japanese could literally write off those debts?
Son, there is two things that follow you to the grave : Bad marriage and debt ..
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #743,804
  • Jan 9, 2013 3:55pm Jan 9, 2013 3:55pm
Quoting fxtyrant
im curious... when their older population kicks the bucket... especially those rich ones who holds BOJ bonds all the way back from the 1970s....
if they die.... who becomes the owner of those bonds?

Are assets like Bonds transferrable? can it be given as inheritance? or does the goverment void them once they die?

i mean seemingly if the public holds the debt of the japanese government...
so if the public dies.... the japanese could literally write off those debts?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-1...e-do-not-worry.

Please do not worry. They said.

And no, that's not an error. This is Japan where bureaucracy overrides logic. An army of bureaucrats have reviewed that statement.

The long and short of it is that Japanese bond holders will die before they see their money. Senbei has more value as an inheritance.

They are borrowing money they will never pay back. If the public dies, they are writing off the debt. Or taxing it which is just the same.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #743,805
  • Jan 9, 2013 3:56pm Jan 9, 2013 3:56pm
Quoting Hyperion
Yup, I don't disagree... an analyst I knew years ago who was close to Sakakibara (I did say years ago!!) suggested to him that Japan should over night set rates at 5%. That would get all their savers spending and would offset the otehr problems that would cause. Radical!
ummm no.... currently BOJ adopts a 0% to 0.1% interest rate...
if they push rates up to +5%, you only drive people into putting more money to save...., put money into the bank and enjoy a 5% interest rate growth per month...

the reason why BOJ kept interest rate low is because Low interest rates, discourages saving as the rates are low, meaning low return on savings....
but low interest rate.. means it encourages people to spend more through borrowing money.... encouraging people to borrow money to spend.... sooo in a way BOJ is in an ugly situation where even 0% to 0.1% interest rate is not enough to encourage ppl to spend... what should they do??

maybe they should learn from the SNB to impost a NEGATIVE interest rate.... i know ppl are gona go against me on this...
but i believe with a negative interest rate... it should discourage ppl from saving as negative interest rates mean you lose money per annum when u put money in deposits...
and it also means... peopel who borrowed money would get a bonus amount of money on top of their borrowing to spend...

problem is... even if they adopted negative interest rates... the question is... Whether if people have the aptitude to spend... and that is one heck of a question economists have been arguing for decades....
and it seems that japan's population are already uninterested to spend when interest rate are at its lowest... why would they spend if its pushed into negative...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #743,806
  • Jan 9, 2013 3:56pm Jan 9, 2013 3:56pm
Quoting Vachus
Son, there is two things that follow you to the grave : Bad marriage and debt ..
True and if you're still married the 'ole lady gets it. If the bonds (debt) are making buckes she still gets it (in the end) !?
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #743,807
  • Jan 9, 2013 3:58pm Jan 9, 2013 3:58pm
Quoting Vachus
Son, there is two things that follow you to the grave : Bad marriage and debt ..
Bad marriage didn't follow O.J.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #743,808
  • Jan 9, 2013 4:02pm Jan 9, 2013 4:02pm
i told you here, 3-4 weeks ago that the EZ might have lots of bln of euroz held outside Europe ...
well, here are some news released these days in Romania, the amount of foreign currency held in banks by the romanian citizens it's about 48-50 bln.... of course, i can assure you, the vast majority are... euroz !!! RO has 20 mln inhabitants.... Now , count PL, TK, other states in the zone, RU, etc, HALF WORLD....
It's clear now for me that the EZ has a lot of euroz, "lost", held in non commercial foreign accounts... around the globe...

i think eur will go down !

i'm totally objective now, i was short on eurjpy but the yen did it again so my SL must have been touched, i'll keep being poor... for now
I'll shop after the drop
  • #743,809
  • Jan 9, 2013 4:02pm Jan 9, 2013 4:02pm
Quoting Vachus
Son, there is two things that follow you to the grave : Bad marriage and debt ..
wait a minute.... ive been told Assets like bonds can be transfered or inherited...

and government bonds too for that matter of fact... unless im mistaken....
sooo no i dont think the government can write off the debt to public just because their public is dead

im in this scenario

if japan population is 10 pp... 5 ppl hold japanese government debt
if those 5 ppl who hold those japanese government debt died.....
theres still 5 people left in the economy... and japanese is still in debt.... to the 5 guys in the grave....
i dont think the government can simply write the debt off especially when they are certified bonds....
im sure the government will just have to carry that debt and to tax the 5 remaining people to pay off the debt
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #743,810
  • Jan 9, 2013 4:02pm Jan 9, 2013 4:02pm
Quoting Jay Walker
Bad marriage didn't follow O.J.
Who is the lucky fellow ?!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #743,811
  • Jan 9, 2013 4:04pm Jan 9, 2013 4:04pm
Quoting Vachus
Who is the lucky fellow ?!
dude... OJ... as in OJ simpson man.... you really never heard of that name before?
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #743,812
  • Jan 9, 2013 4:05pm Jan 9, 2013 4:05pm
[quote=fxtyrant;6351658]ummm no.... currently BOJ adopts a 0% to 0.1% interest rate...
if they push rates up to +5%, you only drive people into putting more money to save...., put money into the bank and enjoy a 5% interest rate growth per month...

yes but the point this analyst was making to Sakaibara (head of BOJ at the time) was that their policies ( zero rates) were not working anyway. She was arguing that if people where making 5% p.a. on their savings they would feel more like spending. We all spend when we make a profit don't we??!! By the way Saki agreed with her but obviously this was too radical.

Anyway I'm just mentioning this out of interest, I don't have any axe to grind... back to the EUR I guess....
  • #743,813
  • Jan 9, 2013 4:08pm Jan 9, 2013 4:08pm
Quoting fxtyrant
until they realize their easing effort was a bit excessive given the fac that fuel price are rising and if fuel price rises along with inflation.... its gona hampen their economy to have trouble importing FUEL....
u do realize most of japanese production has to be imported somewhere right?
fuel price rising and devalued currency... they will have a higher cost of production, meaning a less efficient production hence an economic growth, but one that may not be able to grow enough to withstand the inflation they put in....

i see rising fuel...
ya i know they import their energy almost all of it, even more now since fukashima. plus if they get even a 1% increase in their jgb's their gonna be using any gains from economic growth to pay more for their massive debts. i think japan if they continue their path could be the 1st modern industrialized country to go into a hyper-inflationary bust. but i think they'll stop their QE-ing once they realize it wont get them out of the mess their in.
  • #743,814
  • Jan 9, 2013 4:13pm Jan 9, 2013 4:13pm
Quoting fxtyrant
wait a minute.... ive been told Assets like bonds can be transfered or inherited...

and government bonds too for that matter of fact... unless im mistaken....
sooo no i dont think the government can write off the debt to public just because their public is dead

im in this scenario

if japan population is 10 pp... 5 ppl hold japanese government debt
if those 5 ppl who hold those japanese government debt died.....
theres still 5 people left in the economy... and japanese is still in debt.... to the 5 guys in the grave....
i dont think...
Soverign debt is more complicated than that - and as long as you are able to print the money, you keep defaulting and printing. Reduce the value of the currency itself inorder to be able to reduce the debt that you kind of owning it to yourself. The theory is , if government was able to print as much as they want - any government could hyper inflate the economy. So, they needed to borrow money from the treasury and collect as much as they can from taxes and other revenues. So, in the yearly budget the two positions would offset each other and equal zero. So, to in case all Japanese population dieded - no one has to pay for it directly, but the remaining government should print all this money and devalue its currency to cover for the budget hole. Or, the government rise money by selling public owned factories or properties or take loans ...

As long as you can control food prices and inflation , the Japan story can keep writing chapters of printing and devaulting for many years to come ! Its not impossible or a financial armagadone
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #743,815
  • Jan 9, 2013 4:14pm Jan 9, 2013 4:14pm
Quoting fxtyrant
dude... OJ... as in OJ simpson man.... you really never heard of that name before?
Noooooooooooooo

I was talking about Orange Juice!
Not all sins are created equal
  • #743,816
  • Jan 9, 2013 4:18pm Jan 9, 2013 4:18pm
the fall of the yen is blocking the rise of the euro ?
a cheap yen can not coexist along with an expensive euro or what ?
4th time i put the question in 48h, maybe someone can give a clue....

we all talk about eu and jp loosers and nobody seems to see how efficient US has become lately....
I'll shop after the drop
  • #743,817
  • Jan 9, 2013 4:21pm Jan 9, 2013 4:21pm
Quick survey for the EUR/USD (Jan 09, 2013 23:00) ... (ROLL CLOSE) ... with a few hints for today and WEEK No.2 ...


2013-01-09_00h00 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Roll Up _ W-02 # FC86 (EN Daily, Weekly).PNG (128.8 KB)

2013-01-09_04h00 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Rolling _ W-02 # FG86 (EN Daily, Weekly).PNG (130.3 KB)

2013-01-09_08h00 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Rolling _ W-02 # FG86 (EN Daily, Weekly).PNG (130.0 KB)

2013-01-09_12h00 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Rolling _ W-02 # FG86 (EN Daily, Weekly).PNG (129.8 KB)

2013-01-09_16h00 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Rolling _ W-02 # FG86 (EN Daily, Weekly).PNG (130.2 KB)

2013-01-09_20h00 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Rolling _ W-02 # FG86 (EN Daily, Weekly).PNG (130.1 KB)

2013-01-09_22h30 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Rolling _ W-02 # FG86 (EN Daily, Weekly).PNG (130.3 KB)

2013-01-09_23h00 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Roll Dn _ W-02 # FG86 (EN Daily, Weekly).PNG (126.2 KB)


Easy peasy to read ...

Easy peasy to work with ...

Nothing changed for now ...

Can pop up one more time and all fine as long as 1.3007 may hold ...

Still in a zigzag correction ...

Any cross of below 1.3007 would damage the upside structure ...







;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #743,818
  • Jan 9, 2013 4:24pm Jan 9, 2013 4:24pm
[quote=Hyperion;6351617]
Quoting spartanforex
the japanese are buying other currencies to lower the yens value to create inflation. they dont care what price they are buying the goal is to de-value the yen, so they will buy as much other currencies as their goals require.

My reading was that they are using their foreign reserves to buy EUR bonds etc. That doesn't mean they are selling Yen... They are buying with foreigh currency they already hold. (Assuming you are all talking about the announcement the other day)
they're selling their yen and buying other currencies and assets to drive the yens value down by flooding the market with yen. thats their main goal to get 2% inflation. but ya them buying esm bonds with their euro holdings still raises the euro's perceived value i guess giving the ecb more firepower gives the euro credibility
  • #743,819
  • Jan 9, 2013 4:27pm Jan 9, 2013 4:27pm
Quoting Willow
true, they re recalling their yens hold overseas, it's the only way.
no if they did that they'd be repatriating them and causing the yens value to go up. it the opposite their pushing yen out into the global economy.
  • #743,820
  • Jan 9, 2013 4:31pm Jan 9, 2013 4:31pm
Quoting Hyperion
Yup, I don't disagree... an analyst I knew years ago who was close to Sakakibara (I did say years ago!!) suggested to him that Japan should over night set rates at 5%. That would get all their savers spending and would offset the otehr problems that would cause. Radical!
they have i think 230% debt to gdp they cant even raise rates by 1% without having a soverign debt crisis. the only reason they dont have one now is they own most of their own debt and have account surplus from their exports but that has collapsed recently. japans in serious trouble right now and they have no solutions.
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