USD/JPY Discussion

I may even start small at 86.65 , 38.2 fib depending on pa

Im waiting for todays close to get as to whether we see a little more down or its time to start establishing my long postions.

Yes i think the easy money on the run up has been made.

what does the v mean by your name?

Id say from these levels you could be very well be right, but longer term the trend is still very much in place and pullback is very healthy before the trend resumes. The V is a vouch.

Agreed thanks

FOREX-Euro, dollar fall vs yen as BOJ, ECB eyed

Tue Jan 8, 2013 4:03pm EST
* Dollar pressured against the yen, support at Jan. 1 low of 86.53 yen

* Japan government to buy bonds issued by ESM

* French Finance Ministry dismisses rumors of downgrade

* US earnings announcements could sway currency market sentiment

By Julie Haviv

NEW YORK, Jan 8 (Reuters) - The dollar and the euro dropped against the yen on Tuesday as investors felt the time was ripe to book profits in the aftermath of swift and significant gains linked to predictions of more aggressive Bank of Japan action.

The dollar has rallied smartly against the yen for over a month on expectations that Japan's newly elected government would push the Bank of Japan, headed by Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, to adopt more forceful monetary stimulus measures.

However, after notching an impressive 5.2 percent gain in December and a 0.5 percent increase since the start of the year, the dollar fell for a second straight session.

"There is a lot of profit taking going on and people decided to pare back positions after they reached overstretched levels," said Daniel Hwang, chief currency strategist at Gallant Capital Markets in New York.

"Action from the Bank of Japan seems to be sufficiently priced in and when it comes down to it, the move higher in the dollar and euro against the yen was just too far and too fast," he said.

The dollar fell to a session low of 86.95 yen after a rally of nearly 12 percent in recent months that saw the dollar touch its highest level since July 2010.

It was last down 0.7 percent at 87.18 yen, with solid support expected at around 86.53, the low hit on Jan. 1.

Analysts said investors were nervous of pushing the yen too much lower due to the risk the BOJ may not opt for aggressive stimulus as early as its next meeting on Jan. 21-22, with a focus on Shirakawa's tenure at the helm of the Japanese central bank.

"We still have Shirakawa, who is not leaving until the end of March, so there is a risk of disappointment," said Chris Turner, head of FX strategy at ING in London.

The euro initially gained against the yen after Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said the government would buy bonds issued by the European Stability Mechanism, the euro zone's permanent bailout fund.

The euro, however, eventually dropped against the yen because while Japan buying ESM bonds is supportive for Europe, the country holds mostly dollars and euros in reserves, which makes its weakening impact on the yen unclear.

The euro was last down 1 percent on the day at 114.04 yen, having hit a session high of 115.21 after Aso's comments.

"Japan's comments helped euro and dollar/yen a bit higher at first. But then everyone realized they are just going to use current reserves so there should actually be no impact," said Geoff Kendrick, FX strategist at Nomura, of the market reaction to the plans to buy ESM bonds.

EURO FALLS AHEAD OF ECB MEETING

Markets are positioned for the European Central Bank to keep rates on hold when it meets this Thursday. The euro zone common currency was volatile on market talk that France's sovereign debt rating would be imminently downgraded but the impact was fleeting. A French Finance Ministry spokeswoman on her Twitter feed called the rumors "unfounded and false."

With no significant economic data this week, the euro was seen staying in a range ahead of the ECB meeting and Spanish and Italian bond auctions toward the end of the week.

However, any hint by ECB policymakers about future interest rate cuts could undermine the currency.

"Markets have backed away from peripheral issues in Europe for now, and unless we start to get broader concerns, euro/dollar will continue to trade sideways for now," said Geoff Kendrick, FX strategist at Nomura in London.

Currency trading activity could also be swayed by the U.S. earnings season, which is expected to show sluggish growth in quarterly corporate profits.

Corporate profits are expected to be higher than the third quarter's lackluster results, but analysts' estimates are down sharply from where they were in October.

The euro fell against the dollar for the first time in three sessions but held above a three-week low of $1.2997 set on Friday. Profit taking in the yen crosses impacted the currency pair.

The euro was last down 0.2 percent on the day against the dollar at $1.3084, according to Reuters data.

it has 2 possible ways, down to the low 86s(follow thru of bearish) or USD/JPY shorts have to cover and goes back to the 87s.

very likely it will trade choppy for a while as the chart, it has to settle down for a while for the chart to be sustainable.

no news behind this up move, right? quite impressive for a reverse given the mood the past two days.

From my point of view that up move says the bulls are still in control.

IMO last few days was just some profit taking & repositioning there's a few bigger economic data releases for the end of the week & some bond sales, & equities earnings.

so for so good

I think the USA have bond 10 year bond sales today that could decide what happens with this pair near term

Hey guys, I also have a piece of info for you that you should consider .

My new target for USDJPY is $91 for next 1-2 months and $95 for the next 6 months ( based on Ichimoku + Fibonacci + Fundamentals= Abe,Boj statements, USA fiscal cliff resolving)

For today here are the news on the YEN :


JPY REVERSES DIRECTION YET AGAIN Market Briefs . Japan plans Y5.2 trln in public works spending in extra budget - Nikkei. . Extra budget to top Y20 trln, to include Y2.6 trln in assistance to public pensions, Y5.2 in additional debt for financing - Jiji. . Japan Mitsui & Co. buys out NY-based Paul Stuart for undisclosed amount.


Currency Summaries USD/JPY and the JPY crosses traded soggy initially, adding to losses seen yesterday. USD/JPY fell from 87.15 through stops around 86.90 to 86.84. Late New York trading saw it to 86.99. It saw a solid bounce thereafter, rallying back to 87.55 with quite a bit of buying noted sub-87.00 from Japanese players including importers into the Tokyo fix. Offshore names were also prominent buyers. The pair has since steadied but some players are already suggesting a near-term bottom may be in place.

Despite the flows noted in the crosses, direction remains hostage to moves in USD/JPY and the Nikkei index.


I'm not going and short until I see a consolidate break in the trendline, for me is just buy buy buy .

Cheers,
VladG

it just missed the 86.80 area and didn't give people a chance to get on board.

Its not done with consolidation yet.Also anyone think we have had a 4hr flag breakout to the upside ?
Dont know if everyone is having the same probs but it wont let me post a chart i will as soon as it does

Hello everybody :-) I've been following the thread lately, and wanted to humbly add my two cents .
I believe we’regoing to see more choppiness in the days ahead. Indeed I don’t think the rallywill resume before the BOJ’s meeting on monetary policy. All crosses with JPYare by far in an overextended bull run. I’m looking forward for a buy and holdsituation but we’d need price to retrace at least to the 86.00/86.50 area.There I would feel safer buying, and increasing positions. I just feeluncomfortable buying at these levels, unless one has big equity that can gothrough drawdowns without much pain.

Safe tradingto you all,

Thanks MisterSpread (vlad) are you buying at these levels or waiting for lower?
I agree with smokey 81 i dont like buying at these levels but have got a very small buy on that can handle a very big correction

How are you trying to post them?

its the whole site playing up for me today,wont let me login if i want to login i have to reply to the thread then it allows it if i click on the attachment paper clip it goes to the forex factory homepage.