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  • #4,721
  • Jan 7, 2013 10:47pm Jan 7, 2013 10:47pm
Quoting tazmaan
I wasn't referring to using the indicator to auto optimize, I just meant choose your settings based on stats from a longer period, instead of just 100 days. I am more confident in settings that provide me a nice win rate and pip count over a 360 day period, than I am with ones that give me nice stats over 100 days or less.
Obviously, going forward is a different ballgame, but it helps to see some nice solid settings over a year to increase confidence going forward.
Hmmm - I must admit, I have played with the time period and I appreciate your longer sample point of view but I would question, in this rapidly changing world, if the volatility, or maybe more correctly, the short term breakouts we pick up from a CZ stay relatively the same over a longer term. I don't know, have not looked at it. That's the thing with SSBO and the re-sizing box, the game is always changing.
  • #4,722
  • Jan 8, 2013 12:53am Jan 8, 2013 12:53am
Quoting Armacom
Long story short; stability over long periods are key and are achieved with more bars.

That's what i think and think i understood .. maybe i'm totally wrong, but it feels right
I have a 30 bars long setting on EURUSD M15 with only one trade since 2nd january (but a good one). Only 25 pips.

A new one is forming, at what i call the "key" 1.3125 level.
  • #4,723
  • Jan 8, 2013 3:55am Jan 8, 2013 3:55am
It is so easy to not follow the plan.

I am up so I am trading at a time I am normally in bed. since I didn't have a new 4 hour trade - I went down to a 5 min time frame. I am comfortable with this pair and the settings.

I entered on the signal with a stop loss at the other side of the CZ. So Far so Good.

1. A new box formed that I drew by hand - as the indicator doesn't do this when the cycle is still open.
2. I Didn't honor the new box when price broke to the top of it. My plan is to move my stop to the new cz stop when this happens.
3. Price took out my first position at the indicator CZ stop. I then made error number two - when price broke the cz buffer I went short without waiting for the candle to close outside the buffer. Of course price went against me quickly. Ouch.
4. I let price stablize at the new cz and then entered a partial position to recover some of my loss (hopefully). this is revenge and breaks another one of my rules - never add to a losing position.

So each one of these choices I made knowing I was being out of integrity with my plan.

I could have just closed out my position taken the loss and waited for the market and my plan to come back into synch. I didn't. So the cost is actually more than the pips - its the mental cost that will haunt me for a while. How could I be so (put in any self deficating word).
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  • #4,724
  • Jan 8, 2013 5:04am Jan 8, 2013 5:04am
Quoting fx_forever
I have a 30 bars long setting on EURUSD M15 with only one trade since 2nd january (but a good one). Only 25 pips.

A new one is forming, at what i call the "key" 1.3125 level.
My last CZ was from before new-year ! But i share your point of view, 30 bars is solid, I even use 32
CZ formed but wasn't there to catch it, ended being a loss.

Forex_Fox : We don't know how the distribution is of the returns, so we can't just use the normal distrubution

Personnaly i prefer to look at longer time periods than 100 days from time to time. When i found settings that I liked, i changed the days to 200 and than to 500, just to see if it would have been profitable. If it would have I will be more confident about the settings than if i see a negative result over te period.

Note : Now that I have settings that I like, I will test these without changing them. From the hours past looking at charts, trailing our profit would be really interesting. I think that a lot of users here just use a fixed take profit ..
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  • #4,725
  • Jan 8, 2013 5:31am Jan 8, 2013 5:31am
Quoting AltosTrader
Hmmm - I must admit, I have played with the time period and I appreciate your longer sample point of view but I would question, in this rapidly changing world, if the volatility, or maybe more correctly, the short term breakouts we pick up from a CZ stay relatively the same over a longer term. I don't know, have not looked at it. That's the thing with SSBO and the re-sizing box, the game is always changing.
I agree with this in that we are trading short term (always intra day for me) so I am more interested in what happened over the last 20 than the last 100 or more. Interesting points of view though and I too appreciate the longer term point of view - but we all different! Good luck guys.
  • #4,726
  • Jan 8, 2013 5:49am Jan 8, 2013 5:49am
Entered sell trade GU - 15M
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Don’t ever let someone tell you that you can’t do something.
  • #4,727
  • Jan 8, 2013 5:52am Jan 8, 2013 5:52am
That's interesting. I entered that trade and exited it for a quick +13
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  • #4,728
  • Jan 8, 2013 5:54am Jan 8, 2013 5:54am
Quoting SedonaPipper
It is so easy to not follow the plan.

I am up so I am trading at a time I am normally in bed. since I didn't have a new 4 hour trade - I went down to a 5 min time frame. I am comfortable with this pair and the settings.

I entered on the signal with a stop loss at the other side of the CZ. So Far so Good.

1. A new box formed that I drew by hand - as the indicator doesn't do this when the cycle is still open.
2. I Didn't honor the new box when price broke to the top of it. My plan is to move my stop to the new cz stop when this happens.
3....
I have made similar errors in the past. I dont make as many of them now. I actually look at these situations in a slightly different way as I view the market as a sort of university of wealth, by which I mean education isn't free and if the market is going to teach you something it will invariably cost you money, I have no problem with that as long as I learn what the market is telling me.

I love the saying 'the market has spoken, we're you listening' I remind myself of it often especially after a losing trade but as a highly analytical creature I have great trouble in trying not to over analyse what is happening to price action.
  • #4,729
  • Jan 8, 2013 8:30am Jan 8, 2013 8:30am
Bingo, GU trade closed with 28 pips profit while I was gone
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Don’t ever let someone tell you that you can’t do something.
  • #4,730
  • Jan 8, 2013 8:39am Jan 8, 2013 8:39am
I am trying to post a chart to see if I did it right.Thank you
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  • #4,731
  • Jan 8, 2013 8:43am Jan 8, 2013 8:43am
Got it right....
  • #4,732
  • Jan 8, 2013 8:59am Jan 8, 2013 8:59am
Same

http://my.jetscreenshot.com/demo/m_2...ppwh-185kb.jpg (http://my.jetscreenshot.com/demo/20130108-ppwh-185kb)
  • #4,733
  • Jan 8, 2013 9:18am Jan 8, 2013 9:18am
Excellent man....THANK YOU FXH.Just going to maybe wait a couple of weeks for the markets to get back in gear....GOD BLESS
  • #4,734
  • Jan 8, 2013 11:58am Jan 8, 2013 11:58am
Being a complete forex newb prior to joining this thread, I decided to take this excessively slow; I ignored FXH’s rule to find CZ for a week and get used the system. Instead, I took about 5 months looking at different CZ, trying to understand what they are, how to recognize them on different time frames. I also took the time to “see” how different currencies behave and get to know their personalities. The first times I read these kinds of comments, I was like WTF are you guys talking about!! But then, slowly, I started “seeing” how GU behaves, and how UJ behaves differently. Ultimately seeing how all these currencies offered great CZs and pip potential.

My journey did not stop here; as a matter of fact it hasn’t even begun. During the last 5 months, I haven’t made any trades according to a plan. Instead, I traded a bunch of CZ’s as I saw them, unguided, besides the indicator (speaking of which, the indicator helped me a lot in getting to know the currencies, testing different settings and what not. It also helped me gain a lot of confidence in myself and how to approach trades). I never really committed myself to the trade sets (oops, I slept in and missed my 3rd or 4th trade). I was still pleasantly surprised to see that my settings, but most of all the system was working, even though I had missed the profit.

I think that experience has allowed me to better understand how the market in general “works”; how news days are unpredictable, and how I really don’t care if it’s NPD Friday, or if the breakout occurs during the Asian session, or if Obama’s speech made the market go nuts; pips have been made during these times, even if I haven’t followed the trade sets, they still ended up in the green by my settings. I now feel ready to move on to the next level…

With all the knowledge that I have gained through trial and error and through all you guys; I have not traded during the holidays. Instead, I started writing my short and long term trading plan for the next year(s) using solely SSBO. I want to take the time to truly thank everyone who has contributed to this thread, FXH, XUX, hxtrader, AWOL, Mer, AndersonAlex, Sedona, C345, Altos, and the list goes on...

Starting this year, according to my trading plan, I will commit myself 100 % to only trade GU15 CZ’s and follow through the whole trade set (even if that means getting up at 5 am (UTC-5 to answer FXH’s question). Once that milestone has been reached, my plan will allow me to start trading a second currency, and so on (even if I won’t be trading anything else, I will still be avidly looking at the other currencies).

I hope my post doesn’t seem too blurry or whatnot, the “taddam” moment is pretty elusive and hard to put a finger on. I know what I have to do,I get it now…
  • #4,735
  • Jan 8, 2013 1:09pm Jan 8, 2013 1:09pm
What a Great thread.

So much trash in these forums I gave up looking at them until I found this by accident this week. I have been trying to get up to speed with the setups but I am having one fundamental problem which is VERY noobish and I am hoping somebody can assist me with it. I can draw a rectangle no problem and my setups are mirroring what seems to be the correct approach however I cannot work out how to easily move the rectangle about without redrawing it each time. I feel embarrassed that I havent managed to work this out. I have been trading for 13 years the last 4 using MT4 and I cant work it out.

Can somebody please relieve me of this embarrassment and just tell me how its done.

Many Thanks People
  • #4,736
  • Jan 8, 2013 1:21pm Jan 8, 2013 1:21pm
Quoting Splurge
What a Great thread.

So much trash in these forums I gave up looking at them until I found this by accident this week. I have been trying to get up to speed with the setups but I am having one fundamental problem which is VERY noobish and I am hoping somebody can assist me with it. I can draw a rectangle no problem and my setups are mirroring what seems to be the correct approach however I cannot work out how to easily move the rectangle about without redrawing it each time. I feel embarrassed that I havent managed to work this out. I have been...
Its is actually covered in the first few pages of the thread -
insert rectangle, size it and then click on it. You will see 5 dots - one for each corner and the center - click on the center dot of the rectangle, may have to do it a couple of times, then move it to your hearts content.
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  • #4,737
  • Jan 8, 2013 1:28pm Jan 8, 2013 1:28pm
Jayf19 - great first post - you discovered the secret to success - successful traders do what others won't - which means getting up at 4 in the morning for the possibility of a trade if thats what the plan says to do.
I make money anywhere in the world by taking orders
  • #4,738
  • Jan 8, 2013 2:29pm Jan 8, 2013 2:29pm
Quoting Splurge
What a Great thread.

So much trash in these forums I gave up looking at them until I found this by accident this week. I have been trying to get up to speed with the setups but I am having one fundamental problem which is VERY noobish and I am hoping somebody can assist me with it. I can draw a rectangle no problem and my setups are mirroring what seems to be the correct approach however I cannot work out how to easily move the rectangle about without redrawing it each time. I feel embarrassed that I havent managed to work this out. I have been...
Hi Splurge - Sedona is quite right but it also helps if you go into Tools > Options > Objects and tick >Select object with single mouse click, well I find that easier anyway, and then as Sedona says.
  • #4,739
  • Jan 8, 2013 2:31pm Jan 8, 2013 2:31pm
Jayf19 - Good post. No not blurry, very deliberate and it will work. I suspect you may add a second pair sooner though. :-)
  • #4,740
  • Jan 8, 2013 5:06pm Jan 8, 2013 5:06pm
CZ forming on my most reliable Pair GBPCHF M30. On my settings I get 2.6 CZ's per week and win rate on Trade1 of 79%, Trade 2 86%, Trade 3 of 100% (i've yet to get to trade 3). This is the benchmark I have set for my other pairs but I've yet to get %'s quite as good as these but the settings are there somewhere. Anyway, this is definately worth getting up in the middle of the night for.

If your wondering what the grey box is behind the CZ it's a manually drawn box i placed there a few hours ago when it looked like one could be forming, never stop drawing them manual boxes folks.
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