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  • #4,701
  • Jan 7, 2013 10:09am Jan 7, 2013 10:09am
not much going on on my end only 4 trades so far this year and this latest trade on GU which i took last night got me 20 pips

Its good to note what forexhard posted just now, I was getting worried for a bit that I was not seeing as many zones as before but above all need to remember to be patient and the trades will come.

Nice work Sedonapipper you're killing it today
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  • #4,702
  • Jan 7, 2013 10:13am Jan 7, 2013 10:13am
Nice work Sedonapipper you're killing it today[/quote]

I am not killing it - I did my work and the results are showing up. I only focus on my plan and leave the market alone.
I make money anywhere in the world by taking orders
  • #4,703
  • Jan 7, 2013 10:22am Jan 7, 2013 10:22am
I'm looking for a CZ that will fit into the blue box. Nothing's even close yet. I just pass right over a chart like this without a second glance.
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To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #4,704
  • Jan 7, 2013 10:28am Jan 7, 2013 10:28am
EURJPY - a good start for 2013.
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  • #4,705
  • Jan 7, 2013 11:00am Jan 7, 2013 11:00am
I agree now....lol with ya.... im down 2 and up 2 trades for the day.... stopped out on my 2 earlier that I posted....up +5 net
  • #4,706
  • Jan 7, 2013 11:13am Jan 7, 2013 11:13am
Quoting forexhard
IMHO some of you guys are rushing into your trades. M15 consolidation zones with only 15 bars? Really?

At this moment the markets are coming out of the holiday hibernation. A lot of old orders from last year are being pushed through the international banking system. Trillions of dollars worth. So it's going to take some time for the charts to get back to their expected daily cyclic behavior, the kind that gives us 2-4 exceptional CZ's per week per chart. But it's not happening yet.

I do not consider these latest CZ's to be...
Firstly this sort of post is precisely why I love this thread to pieces. Clear, concise and informative. Having not traded around this period before, FXH gives an extremely helpful incite into market behaviour....and its duly noted.

I do however have some input of my own regarding my current settings.....

I have posted my charts over the past few weeks and my settings show a 71.4% win rate on the GU with 14 bars and 31 pips. Now, admittedly, every CZ is different. For me, 14 bars has gotten me 175 pips on the GU, over 16 trading days, stretching back to the 3rd december.

Please understand I am not in any way challenging you FXH. Your word is what we measure everything we do on here by. If I have just had a lucky few weeks then that is absolutely fair enough....but my question is this.....are my methods of setting up my markets actually incorrect?

Should I re-consider what I'm doing despite my success?
  • #4,707
  • Jan 7, 2013 1:39pm Jan 7, 2013 1:39pm
@Awol, lady luck has been on your side so smile. The only thing I know for sure is that any method run like a robot breaks even eventually. If you want I can take your settings on the quick EA I wrote for this and show you that it had a breakeven sometime last year. This method combined with some intuition, perseverance, EQ and experience seems to be what makes it a success.

Enough blabbering, EU for today, +40:


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  • #4,708
  • Jan 7, 2013 1:50pm Jan 7, 2013 1:50pm
Just got another 20 off GU just now
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  • #4,709
  • Jan 7, 2013 2:12pm Jan 7, 2013 2:12pm
Quoting nickp89
Just got another 20 off GU just now
Nice Job Nick, caught the same one....
  • #4,710
  • Jan 7, 2013 2:20pm Jan 7, 2013 2:20pm
Quoting forexhard
IMHO some of you guys are rushing into your trades. M15 consolidation zones with only 15 bars? Really?

At this moment the markets are coming out of the holiday hibernation. A lot of old orders from last year are being pushed through the international banking system. Trillions of dollars worth. So it's going to take some time for the charts to get back to their expected daily cyclic behavior, the kind that gives us 2-4 exceptional CZ's per week per chart. But it's not happening yet.

I do not consider these latest CZ's to be CZ's...
I hear what you are saying, trading on a Monday and a Friday is never a good idea, especially after a long holiday, but for me
i had a day off work today, and i wanted to prove to myself that i could take the trades without emotion and attachment. I achieved that. I took the trades with set stop losses and TP and let the trades run without interference even though i had access to the computer, this for me was a major hurdle that i have overcome, prior to this i would have constantly been watching the charts
and at every pullback would have closed out through fear. I did not do that today, i trusted the method, and when i did check in and saw my SL almost being hit, i let it ride and figured if i am wrong, i am wrong, so be it. I have increased my account by over 10%
today with no stress, no anxiety, and i have not been chained to the computer. Although i should have not traded today, this was the first opportunity i have had to test ME and this for me is a major hurdle. I did not trade today for trading sakes, i did it to test
me and i think i have passed.
  • #4,711
  • Jan 7, 2013 3:51pm Jan 7, 2013 3:51pm
I have been looking at my charts for quite some hours now. Optimizing, analysing, testing, drawing, writing ... What i noticed is that results for SSBO were very positive for this last couple of weeks/months no matter what the settings were. I'm not saying that any settings would have worked, but a lot, a least more than in the weeks/months before this 'golden' period. I think that your settings work just fine in this period A.w.o.l, but might fail in the future ... You see, when looking at longer time periods, more bars mean more stability. The variabel '# of bars" is like a parabolic graph that shifts a little over time, but the central, most efficient values stay pretty stable. You might find settings that are more profitable for this short period, but i think stability is key. If we have to adjust our settings to often or every time the environement changes we are facing one of the problems with 'trend-trading' ... When trend trading we needed to know if the market was trending or ranging and we had to addapt. That was hard, often impossible and pips were lost.

The stable settings are maybe less profitable over this small period, but so much more profitabel over a long period. And isn't it much more conforting to know that your settings will work no matter what, than worrying over market timing ?
Long story short; stability over long periods are key and are achieved with more bars.

That's what i think and think i understood .. maybe i'm totally wrong, but it feels right
Don’t ever let someone tell you that you can’t do something.
  • #4,712
  • Jan 7, 2013 4:26pm Jan 7, 2013 4:26pm
Anyone long on the EUR/USD? I took this trade lets see how it goes...
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  • #4,713
  • Jan 7, 2013 5:25pm Jan 7, 2013 5:25pm
Quoting Armacom

The stable settings are maybe less profitable over this small period, but so much more profitabel over a long period. And isn't it much more conforting to know that your settings will work no matter what, than worrying over market timing ?
Long story short; stability over long periods are key and are achieved with more bars.

That's what i think and think i understood .. maybe i'm totally wrong, but it feels right
Yeah, that's pretty much my view also Armacon. I do though take it one step further. Number 1 priority is to get a high reliability account going at best gain but highest win % rate and then alongside that run a higher risk, more pips, Martingaled account which you must take profits on frequently before you get caught with a big Martingaled DD. Just my way of looking at things.
  • #4,714
  • Jan 7, 2013 5:56pm Jan 7, 2013 5:56pm
Quoting A.w.o.l
Firstly this sort of post is precisely why I love this thread to pieces. Clear, concise and informative. Having not traded around this period before, FXH gives an extremely helpful incite into market behaviour....and its duly noted.

I do however have some input of my own regarding my current settings.....

I have posted my charts over the past few weeks and my settings show a 71.4% win rate on the GU with 14 bars and 31 pips. Now, admittedly, every CZ is different. For me, 14 bars has gotten me 175 pips on the GU, over 16 trading days, stretching...

Hi A.w.o.l,

The sentence "If I have just had a lucky few weeks..." caught my attention. First of all luck is something that probably does not exist ( not in the scientific world at least) So we should really be looking at stuff like probabilities, mean,variance, standard deviation, confidence intervals etc... I will try to keep this as simple as possible. From what I understand you would like to know if your results are just random "luck" or good settings that yield a long term edge over the instrument you are trading. So here is the formula:

Standard deviation= Sqr P*Q*N

P=probability of win
Q=probability of loss
N=Number of trials

1SD=68%
2SD=95%
3SD=99%


So lets say you found that your settings won 88/140 trades using a 1:1 RR. Lets do the math...
P=0.5
Q=0.5
N=140

SD=Sqr 0.5*0.5*140=Sqr35=5.91

So if you took 140 trades with a 1:1 RR your EV (expected value) is to win 70 and lose 70 trades. But you actually won 18 more than expected. This makes 3.04 SD which means that only 1% of the time this will be the result of pure "luck". To be on the safe side I would look for a bigger sample size. Anyway if you break 3-4 SD (the more the better) you can start assuming that what you are observing is probably not random. I haven't used this for quite a while so I hope that I haven't mixed up any numbers. Anyway this is meant to only give you some room for thought. Good luck
  • #4,715
  • Jan 7, 2013 6:07pm Jan 7, 2013 6:07pm
Some interesting views. I'm going to stick to my guns and give my settings the 15 week treatment. After all what's the point of chopping and changing if you don't have a live sample size that you've witnessed.

I've got my spreadsheet with my overall trade win ratio which updates with every trade. For the time being, my settings are working just fine so I will stick to them. The GU is based off a 15 min chart and the EGBP and AU are based off of 30 min charts. So far so good......
  • #4,716
  • Jan 7, 2013 6:35pm Jan 7, 2013 6:35pm
Quoting Forex_Fox
Anyone long on the EUR/USD? I took this trade lets see how it goes...
I caught this one as well and just enjoying the slow ride
  • #4,717
  • Jan 7, 2013 6:43pm Jan 7, 2013 6:43pm
Isn't it easy enough just to extend the number of days back to get your stats from? Changing it from the 100 days back to a year, should give you a pretty good idea of the viability of your settings over a year's time.
  • #4,718
  • Jan 7, 2013 8:00pm Jan 7, 2013 8:00pm
Hey folks,

is it possible to extract the cz & signal data from MT4 into excel? such as the time it formed the time the breakout/signal occurs etc...?
  • #4,719
  • Jan 7, 2013 8:14pm Jan 7, 2013 8:14pm
Quoting tazmaan
Isn't it easy enough just to extend the number of days back to get your stats from? Changing it from the 100 days back to a year, should give you a pretty good idea of the viability of your settings over a year's time.
No, doesn't quite work like that. If you are using the indicator, it is designed to optimize somewhat going forward but looking back it will only use the current settings, no optimization effect. You should see this clearly in the box sizes going forward.
  • #4,720
  • Jan 7, 2013 9:03pm Jan 7, 2013 9:03pm
Quoting AltosTrader
No, doesn't quite work like that. If you are using the indicator, it is designed to optimize somewhat going forward but looking back it will only use the current settings, no optimization effect. You should see this clearly in the box sizes going forward.
I wasn't referring to using the indicator to auto optimize, I just meant choose your settings based on stats from a longer period, instead of just 100 days. I am more confident in settings that provide me a nice win rate and pip count over a 360 day period, than I am with ones that give me nice stats over 100 days or less.
Obviously, going forward is a different ballgame, but it helps to see some nice solid settings over a year to increase confidence going forward.
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