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Sonic R. System

  • #42,661
  • Jan 8, 2013 8:33am Jan 8, 2013 8:33am
Quoting zarach
Excuse me still learning here and this is what I can explain from the chart
Attachment
Daily
Attachment
1H
Attachment
15M

Shown on daily look consolidating on 1 H it favor up trend, so I think it best to wait for buy signal on 15 M after break 1.0505
please correct me if I'm wrong
While it can theoretically be applied to other systems the sonic system is really designed for the london session and eu pair.
But the principle's are simple, look for a high, a low, and a lower high or higher low (this is just elliot wave broken down to its smallest element), depending on which side of the tunnel dragon you are looking to trade.

Basically you look for longs when the dragon is pointing up and above the 89 ema, and vise versa.
Higher TF's are just a bias, which really means nothing unless your looking for a 100-200 pip move. 15m timeframe has some noise but I notice most people here shoot for 10-40 pips and are out.

In my opinion where the sonic system REALLY shines, is the VSA (Volume Spread Analysis) element. MA's are lagging indicators, while good, might put you in a trade late. Volume is really where it shines, you can see where smart money is moving. And if the herd is getting behind a movement or not.

Don't forget when deciding a setup as well to draw support and resistance on your chart, a few of the veterans on this thread don't post their charts marked up, or might not even do it as they can see it mentally but if your just learning, do it, otherwise you will forget it when all the other signals line up.

Cheers and happy tuesday~
Mezzy
  • #42,662
  • Jan 8, 2013 8:49am Jan 8, 2013 8:49am
Quoting Mezzy
While it can theoretically be applied to other systems the sonic system is really designed for the london session and eu pair.
But the principle's are simple, look for a high, a low, and a lower high or higher low (this is just elliot wave broken down to its smallest element), depending on which side of the tunnel dragon you are looking to trade.

Basically you look for longs when the dragon is pointing up and above the 89 ema, and vise versa.
Higher TF's are just a bias, which really means nothing unless your looking for a 100-200 pip move. 15m...
thanks for your explanation,, it's just the eu pair seem way too hectic for me the au pair is much readable,but I get what your point is. On last Friday and yesterday I saw a jump on vsa in au pair for a buy in 15M chart thats why I'm considering to seek buy signal today or maybe tomorrow.
  • #42,663
  • Jan 8, 2013 8:58am Jan 8, 2013 8:58am
EU Looking bearish.. if 1.306x get broken strongly again...

My Last Friday, EU Long trade has taken TP... Info Here

http://en.korea.com/snsd/files/2010/08/32354.jpg


Gd Nite..

Sonic
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  • #42,664
  • Edited 9:21am Jan 8, 2013 9:02am | Edited 9:21am
*edit* sonic snuck in a post before I could reply to zarach, this is directed to zarach not sonic

Be careful sounds like your not sure how to read it yet.

When volume spikes green, that is not indicating buy. That is saying price has much higher than average movement that ended bullish or is primarilyl bullish, it's what comes after that is how you trade it (on volume alone)

That may have been smart money forcing price higher to position to fill short orders and grab stop losses. If there is a primarily bearish reaction after that or bullish with several pinbars you can bet there is a lot of supply for short orders and price is going to fall.

EU is doing that right now as we speak. Big movement down with a green spike followed by bullish pinbar and more pin bars, and here shortly price is going to drop again.

*update* price is nearing a double bottom area, which would be a significant reversal point in the near term if price fails to break through it with enough force. Seems to be a pretty bearish day though, so I think it will pierce and probably reverse when LC.

*thought update* 1.3070 is a round number, so this could be hard resistance area to break, I doubt it will without smart money influence, look for a W pattern to form.
  • #42,665
  • Jan 8, 2013 9:09am Jan 8, 2013 9:09am
Quoting sonicdeejay
EU Looking bearish.. if 1.306x get broken strongly again...

My Last Friday, EU Long trade has taken TP... Info Here

http://en.korea.com/snsd/files/2010/08/32354.jpg


Gd Nite..

Sonic
Sonic are you a Son Yo Shi De (Girls Generation) Fan?
I love Kpop lol
My wife is Korean so I can understand a bit but she hates it when I listen to it. Ha ha!
  • #42,666
  • Jan 8, 2013 10:47am Jan 8, 2013 10:47am
Quoting Mezzy
While it can theoretically be applied to other systems the sonic system is really designed for the london session and eu pair.
But the principle's are simple, look for a high, a low, and a lower high or higher low (this is just elliot wave broken down to its smallest element), depending on which side of the tunnel dragon you are looking to trade.

Basically you look for longs when the dragon is pointing up and above the 89 ema, and vise versa.
Higher TF's are just a bias, which really means nothing unless your looking for a 100-200 pip move....

Mezzy this is a great summary. If you don't mind can you please elaborate on how you use the VSA analysis while trading. I think that is a skill that I am really struggling to understand. Your help is much appreciated.

Thanks
  • #42,667
  • Jan 8, 2013 10:53am Jan 8, 2013 10:53am
Quoting Mezzy
*edit* sonic snuck in a post before I could reply to zarach, this is directed to zarach not sonic

Be careful sounds like your not sure how to read it yet.

When volume spikes green, that is not indicating buy. That is saying price has much higher than average movement that ended bullish or is primarilyl bullish, it's what comes after that is how you trade it (on volume alone)

That may have been smart money forcing price higher to position to fill short orders and grab stop losses. If there is a primarily bearish reaction after that...



If You don't mind can you post a couple of charts with your VSA analysis and how that relates to you deciding direction of the trade.
  • #42,668
  • Jan 8, 2013 3:42pm Jan 8, 2013 3:42pm
The highlighted area above indicates start of distribution (high volumes without noticeable results) then the price starts downward course (and get some pip , awaiting the pullback). Drawing seems that one channel, seems to be playing his lower guideline, and it seems to be a accumulation before starting the climb.

Now it seems that is accumulation again.

Sorry for my English (I'm Spanish) and my analysis (only took four months operating).
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Newbie trader
  • #42,669
  • Jan 8, 2013 4:35pm Jan 8, 2013 4:35pm
Quoting fex
The highlighted area above indicates start of distribution (high volumes without noticeable results) then the price starts downward course (and get some pip , awaiting the pullback). Drawing seems that one channel, seems to be playing his lower guideline, and it seems to be a accumulation before starting the climb.

Now it seems that is accumulation again.

Sorry for my English (I'm Spanish) and my analysis (only took four months operating).
So essentially what I get from your explanation is that, if there is HUGE volume (lets say bullish) and the price action subsequently moves bearish then we can think that price is likely to move down because the high volume was because of conversion of Longs into Shorts?
  • #42,670
  • Jan 8, 2013 4:38pm Jan 8, 2013 4:38pm
Quoting fex
The highlighted area above indicates start of distribution (high volumes without noticeable results) then the price starts downward course (and get some pip , awaiting the pullback). Drawing seems that one channel, seems to be playing his lower guideline, and it seems to be a accumulation before starting the climb.

Now it seems that is accumulation again.

Sorry for my English (I'm Spanish) and my analysis (only took four months operating).
Fex is your PM turned off?
  • #42,671
  • Jan 8, 2013 5:03pm Jan 8, 2013 5:03pm
Quoting kashTrader
So essentially what I get from your explanation is that, if there is HUGE volume (lets say bullish) and the price action subsequently moves bearish then we can think that price is likely to move down because the high volume was because of conversion of Longs into Shorts?
well, I guess not always. If volume enters huge climax, and then we have a trading range, and we have a "touch" on top of a channel guideline, we might think that the market has entered into distribution, and the price will fall. Right? Im trading for only 4 months, sorry.

Quoting kashTrader
Fex is your PM turned off?
I do not know. how I can turn it on?
Newbie trader
  • #42,672
  • Jan 8, 2013 5:26pm Jan 8, 2013 5:26pm
Quoting fex
well, I guess not always. If volume enters huge climax, and then we have a trading range, and we have a "touch" on top of a channel guideline, we might think that the market has entered into distribution, and the price will fall. Right? Im trading for only 4 months, sorry.


I do not know. how I can turn it on?
Go to your account home (by clicking on your username at the very top). Click user options of the left hand side and scroll down to the 5th or 6th option called private messages. Turn that on.
  • #42,673
  • Jan 8, 2013 5:59pm Jan 8, 2013 5:59pm
Quoting kashTrader
Go to your account home (by clicking on your username at the very top). Click user options of the left hand side and scroll down to the 5th or 6th option called private messages. Turn that on.
Thanks, i think it is corrected.
Newbie trader
  • #42,674
  • Jan 8, 2013 6:42pm Jan 8, 2013 6:42pm
Quoting Mezzy
*edit* sonic snuck in a post before I could reply to zarach, this is directed to zarach not sonic

Be careful sounds like your not sure how to read it yet.

When volume spikes green, that is not indicating buy. That is saying price has much higher than average movement that ended bullish or is primarilyl bullish, it's what comes after that is how you trade it (on volume alone)

That may have been smart money forcing price higher to position to fill short orders and grab stop losses. If there is a primarily bearish reaction after that or bullish...
thanks for the heads up again I think I need to re-read the thread more apparently what sonic posted after your post is an explanation also on volume
  • #42,675
  • Edited 7:39pm Jan 8, 2013 7:17pm | Edited 7:39pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
EU Looking bearish.. if 1.306x get broken strongly again...Sonic
EU Comment:

In the early asian session it looks like the mkt. sentiment is bearish; a selloff and perhaps preceded by a brief upwards SL hunt on shorts so additional profits can be had on the trek down. The support area mentioned by Sonic is intact, so price might range for awhile. The FO/LO and US SM might repeat SL hunts, too, before starting another price mark-down drive, down thru this support. The lower whole number area coincides with RDL, which makes for a nice target 70+ pips below the support. If a short setup occurs above support today, it could result in a nice trade.

This is just how I see current price-volume action. If others have different viewpoints, please lets post them. It might be a good practice to start commenting on EU during the asian sessions to help all get set up for the London session. Keep in mind that current PA is King, so things can start changing with a single candlestick at any time, especially near to, or into the London session. Nevertheless, comments during the asian session could help, as we look for important S&R and any clues PA might have presented.

Again, when you look at the picture, keep in mind that with a single candlestick the entire picture can start changing into something completely different. Price action is King.

-tah
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  • #42,676
  • Jan 8, 2013 7:31pm Jan 8, 2013 7:31pm
Quoting traderathome
EU Comment:

In the early asian session it looks like the mkt. sentiment is bearish; a selloff and perhaps preceded by a brief upwards SL hunt on shorts so additional profits can be had on the trek down. The support area mentioned by Sonic is intact, so price might range for awhile. The FO/LO and US SM might repeat SL hunts, too, before starting a drive to break down thru this support. The lower whole number area coincides with RDL, which makes for a nice target 70+ pips below the support. If a short setup occurs above support today, it could...
Sir,

always looking forward ur commentary..


Sonic
  • #42,677
  • Edited 9:03pm Jan 8, 2013 8:46pm | Edited 9:03pm
UCad Comment:

Sonicers, while not our prime EU trading vehicle, it still has possibilities that might be coming to a head.....

Daily - 50% retrace, twice!
H1 - prolonged basing, including a buying generated break up out of the range, followed by a quick reset manipulation of price back down into the basing range for more of whatever SM is doing (guess).
M15 - PA starting to show bullish again.....
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  • #42,678
  • Jan 8, 2013 8:53pm Jan 8, 2013 8:53pm
EJ entered SHORT, just trying to follow VSA

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  • #42,679
  • Jan 8, 2013 9:11pm Jan 8, 2013 9:11pm
Quoting SCopier
EJ entered SHORT, just trying to follow VSA

Attachment
EJ:

Very dangerous because Dragon is now angled up and PA is above both the Dragon and the Trend. Futhermore, VSA says quite likely SM hit stops on longs early in the asian session and then continued to buy, causing the price to rise. The half number is SR to be dealt with, later. Meanwhile, FO/LO might range the price as more longs are accumulated. This is the picture I see, and of course any next candle could favor your outlook instead of this one. Just keep in mind that this action so far has taken place at the whole number, with two preceding stabs below the whole number which could have been position building (i.e., taking on longs).
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  • #42,680
  • Jan 8, 2013 9:17pm Jan 8, 2013 9:17pm
Quoting traderathome
EJ:

Very dangerous because Dragon is now angled up and PA is above both the Dragon and the Trend. Futhermore, VSA says quite likely SM hit stops on longs early in the asian session and then continued to buy, causing the price to rise. The half number is SR to be dealt with, later. Meanwhile, FO/LO might range the price as more longs are accumulated. This is the picture I see, and of course any next candle could favor your outlook instead of this one. Just keep in mind that this action so far has taken place at the whole number, with two preceding...
Yes, I know too risky but When I saw 1 hour chart I am sure about this shorted
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