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Trading Made Simple for Day Charts

  • #1,121
  • Jan 3, 2013 2:06pm Jan 3, 2013 2:06pm
45drive45, what's semaphore? is it related to fractals?

If I have my news posts correct, today is NFP
  • #1,122
  • Jan 3, 2013 3:16pm Jan 3, 2013 3:16pm
Quoting Buttonjock
45drive45, what's semaphore? is it related to fractals?

If I have my news posts correct, today is NFP
NFP is tomorrow - traditionally a risky play on the US based crosses.

If you are in trades, manage your SL settings accordingly.

I will evaluate my open trades tonight after the 8pm PDT candle opens. I will not place any pending trades tonight - I do not trade the NFP news event, so I will sit back, watch the carnage and pick up on the entry signals next week.

Stick to your trading plans and protect your pips.
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #1,123
  • Jan 3, 2013 5:34pm Jan 3, 2013 5:34pm
Quoting Britpip7
NFP is tomorrow - traditionally a risky play on the US based crosses.

If you are in trades, manage your SL settings accordingly.

I will evaluate my open trades tonight after the 8pm PDT candle opens. I will not place any pending trades tonight - I do not trade the NFP news event, so I will sit back, watch the carnage and pick up on the entry signals next week.

Stick to your trading plans and protect your pips.
Hi,
You are absolutely correct!
  • #1,124
  • Jan 3, 2013 10:55pm Jan 3, 2013 10:55pm
Closed out my open positions on aud chf to end the week on +213pips from this one trade.

NFP tomorrow and the the 8pm PDT candle was not showing any signs of resuming the trend, so off to bed with no trades open.

The trade had reversed by 40pips, so that meant giving up a total of 80pips, which is fine considering that I was running Trailing Stops at 50pips originally.

I will run another Watch List over the weekend after the mayhem has subsided from NFP. Should be interesting to see whether the eur or the usd wins the category for who has the worst outlook - the talking heads are raising their forecasts for the NFP and they are never wrong - which is why I tend to ignore the news and watch the Price Action.

Happy pip hunting folks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd chf closed trade 1-3-2013.gif Size: 35 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #1,125
  • Jan 3, 2013 11:01pm Jan 3, 2013 11:01pm
Quoting Britpip7
Closed out my open positions on aud chf to end the week on +213pips from this one trade.

NFP tomorrow and the the 8pm PDT candle was not showing any signs of resuming the trend, so off to bed with no trades open.

The trade had reversed by 40pips, so that meant giving up a total of 80pips, which is fine considering that I was running Trailing Stops at 50pips originally.

I will run another Watch List over the weekend after the mayhem has subsided from NFP. Should be interesting to see whether the eur or the usd wins the category for who has...
Happy weekend and looking forward to your watchlist!
  • #1,126
  • Jan 4, 2013 10:24am Jan 4, 2013 10:24am
Hey britpip, i download your template but it seems that it is different. can you please let me know which page to get the updated template?


Thanks in advance!

Quoting Britpip7
Closed out my open positions on aud chf to end the week on +213pips from this one trade.

NFP tomorrow and the the 8pm PDT candle was not showing any signs of resuming the trend, so off to bed with no trades open.

The trade had reversed by 40pips, so that meant giving up a total of 80pips, which is fine considering that I was running Trailing Stops at 50pips originally.

I will run another Watch List over the weekend after the mayhem has subsided from NFP. Should be interesting to see whether the eur or the usd wins the category for who...
  • #1,127
  • Jan 4, 2013 12:18pm Jan 4, 2013 12:18pm
Quoting marcoxq
Hey britpip, i download your template but it seems that it is different. can you please let me know which page to get the updated template?


Thanks in advance!
marcoxq,

Post #1 should have everything you need - I have updated template and screen shot to match my current charts.
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #1,128
  • Jan 4, 2013 10:39pm Jan 4, 2013 10:39pm
Watch List from close of play Friday.

NFP has had an impact on the charts, but the JPY pairs continue on their merry way.

For any pair that is already trending, try dropping down to the H4 charts to find re-entry possibilities, especially where a new Demand Zone has been established. Look for entries where PA is leaving the Deamnd Zone - these will usually be confirmed by a TDI recrossing even though it may already be above 68.

EU - Possible resumption of the move south but this will need a move of 90pips + before the previous day low is broken - caution as this heading to a Demand Zone once it clears the 200EMA

GU looks more promising with the Friday doji / spinning top

CHF JPY - Fractal High established - possible pending trade for a fractal break on Day or H4

USD JPY - approaching a Supply Zone - watch for developments during the week

EUR AUD - nice set up for a short re-entry - looks to have stalled on the 200EMA

GBP AUD - has hit a Demand Zone - watching to see if we get a candle reversing off of the zone

AUD CHF - nice set up for a long re-entry - looks to have stalled on the 200EMA


Trading multiple pairs:

This has to be done in accordance with your money / risk management plan otherwise you will blow up your account. Generally I will trade one pair initially and when that has moved into profit and TP1 is triggered, then I will look for additional pairs. Base your trading decisions on probability and risk and only take the A+ set-ups.

Happy pip hunting
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu day 1-4-2012.gif Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu day 1-4-2012.gif Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chf jpy day 1-4-2012.gif Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd jpy day 1-4-2012.gif Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur aud day 1-4-2012.gif Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp aud day 1-4-2012.gif Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud chf day 1-4-2012.gif Size: 37 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #1,129
  • Jan 5, 2013 3:04am Jan 5, 2013 3:04am
Quoting Britpip7
Watch List from close of play Friday.


AUD CHF - nice set up for a long re-entry - looks to have stalled on the 200EMA


Happy pip hunting
Hi Britpip7,

What are your rules for re-entry after stalling? Dropping to h4 and looking for recross?? Do you go down to lower to than h4?

How about pairs already trending strongly without stalling. Do you just ignore them until pa shows stalling?
  • #1,130
  • Jan 5, 2013 10:31am Jan 5, 2013 10:31am
Quoting 45drive45
Hi Britpip7,

What are your rules for re-entry after stalling? Dropping to h4 and looking for recross?? Do you go down to lower to than h4?

How about pairs already trending strongly without stalling. Do you just ignore them until pa shows stalling?
A good example of re-entries on a current trend would be the jpy pairs at present - using the eur/jpy as an example and staying on the day chart would give you 3 clear entries off of Fractal High Breaks. A really good Re-entry is after PA blows through a new Demand Zone as it did on 12/24 - 12/26 plus it also broke a Fractal High.

Once you have a strong trend as with the eur/jpy - it has been on a run for 20 weeks with a couple of pauses, the RSI will sit way above 51 on the day and then the entries are fairly straightforward. The week chart shows a strong Demand Zone with the candle exiting and heading north - this coincides with the original day entry point. This also is a good demonstration of verifying the higher time frames - if the week is on a trend run, then you are only looking for long entries on H4.

The H4 chart makes for much more activity, and again you can use the Fractal High breaks as your entry or as in the Day chart example, as new Demand Zones are established following a pause, enter as the PA heads north again. There will be more entry opportunities here and a chance to scale into the positions as opposed to most folks taking a larger risk and then scaling out - personal preference!.

For SL on the H4 use the most recent H4 Fractal Low and then follow the trend.

One thing to note here is as you run with the H4 chart for the re-entries, there is more possibility of being stopped out than the day charts, so use the H4 Fractal Low SL settings with caution and allow the trade some breathing room. This is a great way of stacking up the pips on a strong trend run.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: week chart for overall trend.gif Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: day chart re-entries.gif Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: h4 fractal and demand zone entries.gif Size: 37 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #1,131
  • Jan 5, 2013 7:01pm Jan 5, 2013 7:01pm
Hi,

Thanks for this example. Really helpful.
  • #1,132
  • Jan 5, 2013 8:05pm Jan 5, 2013 8:05pm
Quoting 45drive45
Hi,

Thanks for this example. Really helpful.
Glad it helped.

I never enter a trend trade unless I get a day or H4 entry signal, so that applies to existing trends especially:

- Supply / Demand Zone - candle leaving / closing away from the zone

- MA3/5 cross

- Fractal High / Low break

- TDI cross

- APB colour change
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #1,133
  • Jan 5, 2013 9:57pm Jan 5, 2013 9:57pm
Quoting Britpip7
Watch List from close of play Friday.

NFP has had an impact on the charts, but the JPY pairs continue on their merry way.

For any pair that is already trending, try dropping down to the H4 charts to find re-entry possibilities, especially where a new Demand Zone has been established. Look for entries where PA is leaving the Deamnd Zone - these will usually be confirmed by a TDI recrossing even though it may already be above 68.


Trading multiple pairs:

This has to be done in accordance with your money / risk management plan otherwise...

Britpip7, thank you for great guidance.

your watch list is extremely helpful.

It helps me to fine tune my own rudimentry analysis, reinforces some shaky ideas and eliminates some costly mistakes.
  • #1,134
  • Jan 6, 2013 8:56am Jan 6, 2013 8:56am
Quoting minortrader
Britpip7, thank you for great guidance.

your watch list is extremely helpful.

It helps me to fine tune my own rudimentry analysis, reinforces some shaky ideas and eliminates some costly mistakes.
You are most welcome.

This is how I trade so I need to have a very methodical approach - do the same things that work, make them systemic. Learn from your mistakes, twea the approach where necessary
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #1,135
  • Jan 6, 2013 7:09pm Jan 6, 2013 7:09pm
Just in case BOJ decides to stop weakening the Yen, here's a chart worth watching.

This is the most pronounced TDI Divergence of all the JPY pairs.

All good trends must come to an end eventually - that's how we make pips.

Watch for PA heading south and leaving the Supply Zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzd jpy tdi divergence.gif Size: 31 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #1,136
  • Jan 6, 2013 7:35pm Jan 6, 2013 7:35pm
Quoting Britpip7
Just in case BOJ decides to stop weakening the Yen, here's a chart worth watching.

This is the most pronounced TDI Divergence of all the JPY pairs.

All good trends must come to an end eventually - that's how we make pips.

Watch for PA heading south and leaving the Supply Zone.

This is the exact pair that I am also looking at now......
Let's see what happens next!
  • #1,137
  • Jan 6, 2013 7:44pm Jan 6, 2013 7:44pm
Quoting 45drive45
This is the exact pair that I am also looking at now......
Let's see what happens next!
Also looking good on H4 once it figures out the Supply / Demand Zone
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzd jpy tdi divergence on h4.gif Size: 33 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #1,138
  • Jan 7, 2013 1:59pm Jan 7, 2013 1:59pm
This may be premature, however the eurcad is looking interesting. Potential long with PA reversal near the bottom of a channel, bouncing off both the 55 and 200 EMA.

Euraud looks ready to reverse and go long for similar reasons. Correlation between the action of Oz and Loony may also be a supporting factor.

Thinking the audchf and gbchf are setting up for a short, again with similar indications from PA channels and MAs

Just realised that my II Supdem is set to not display weak zones. Is this correct?

Cheers all
  • #1,139
  • Jan 7, 2013 10:09pm Jan 7, 2013 10:09pm
Quoting Buttonjock
This may be premature, however the eurcad is looking interesting. Potential long with PA reversal near the bottom of a channel, bouncing off both the 55 and 200 EMA.

Euraud looks ready to reverse and go long for similar reasons. Correlation between the action of Oz and Loony may also be a supporting factor.

Thinking the audchf and gbchf are setting up for a short, again with similar indications from PA channels and MAs

Just realised that my II Supdem is set to not display weak zones. Is this correct?

Cheers all
Looks like that was the default setting, so feel free to experiment and see what the different settings give you. The Weak Zones will probably overload the chart.
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #1,140
  • Jan 7, 2013 10:38pm Jan 7, 2013 10:38pm
Looking at the Watch List from the weekend - Comments in blue

EU - Possible resumption of the move south but this will need a move of 90pips + before the previous day low is broken - caution as this heading to a Demand Zone once it clears the 200EMA - fresh cross with a colour change on APB - move north from 200EMA - Supply Zone is 100pips away

GU looks more promising with the Friday doji / spinning top - [COLOR="rgb(65, 105, 225)"]price moving away from 100EMA PA moving north from the Friday doji - No Supply Zones currently in play [/color]

CHF JPY - Fractal High established - possible pending trade for a fractal break on Day or H4 - [COLOR="rgb(65, 105, 225)"]Supply Zone was on the chart but its high was cancelled out - essentially the zone is still there, so still looking for a move south[/color]

USD JPY - approaching a Supply Zone - watch for developments during the week [COLOR="rgb(65, 105, 225)"]- Lots of noise coming out of Japan regarding the general weakening of the Yen - possible play for a short below the previous day low - TDI cross setting up. [/color]

EUR AUD - nice set up for a short re-entry - looks to have stalled on the 200EMA [COLOR="rgb(65, 105, 225)"]- Probably my favourite pattern with the candle reversal pattern and a bounce off of the 100/200EMA[/color]

GBP AUD - has hit a Demand Zone - watching to see if we get a candle reversing off of the zone [COLOR="rgb(65, 105, 225)"]- Nice reversal pattern with a good run back up to the Supply Zone - of 250pips[/color]

AUD CHF - nice set up for a long re-entry - looks to have stalled on the 200EMA [COLOR="rgb(65, 105, 225)"]- Opposite story to EUR/AUD - reversal south[/color]


[COLOR="rgb(65, 105, 225)"]Happy Pip Hunting[/color]
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
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