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  • #81
  • Jan 4, 2013 3:11pm Jan 4, 2013 3:11pm
Hi,

1.3080 barrier (Gann Pyramid) was broken only with 8 pips. Actually, 1.3077. If not go above and specially to 1.3106, means high probability to come back to 1.3020, then 1.2950 and maybe 1.2870. For my self, i did take a risk to sell at 1.3080. TP to follow.

Good week-end.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #82
  • Jan 4, 2013 7:10pm Jan 4, 2013 7:10pm
Ok, I know it might look a little bit confusing, but it's just a study of waves, applied to the most important reversal point in the last two years.
(no particular reason for the chosen pair: GBPUSD)

So, we have some 'cornerstones':
- fixed levels= (0.618) - 1 - 1.618
- origin = main swing points (trend reversal)

The question is: how do they interact? till which extent price will 'feel' the influence of a wave starting from a lowest low, rather than the one from a highest high?

Too simple questions? Where am I wrong?

Please comment on.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd waves.jpg Size: 132 KB
  • #83
  • Edited 8:18pm Jan 4, 2013 7:52pm | Edited 8:18pm
Hi Jack ;

First of all I shud say that there is nothing wrong about ur analysis , all of the circles are truely drawn , the only missing thing is "experience" and "practice" to see the real patterns on the chart. Its 3:50 am here and I prepared two pictures for you , its nice that some people are really hard working and eager to learn. This process of yours also teaches me new things.

Anyway , I tried to find the real scale when I first saw the chart. After some watching (maybe for 4-5 minutes) I saw the real curves on the price trends. Later I just deleted the 1,618 level from FiboArcs and just used 1 for drawing circles which are settled on important turning points. And I obtained an important image. But honestly I am not able to explain the explosive bullish trend which hapened recently...Apart from that exception , the circles seem to have dominated the price. GBPUSD is in the category of my less relieble pairs , and its too excited. This excitedness creates many potential supports and resistences which is not a nice condition for a trader.

As you can see in the picture the potential targets of the price (two magnets) are quite below the recent price. You can just make date prediction by checking on which date the magnets exist , but being a less relieble pair , GBPUSD makes this attitude meaningless ...Here is the picture :

http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/5121/gbpusdk.gif



(EDIT : The price needs to break the ascending trendline in order to reach the magnets , otherwise it will just bounce and move to higher targets.I forgot to draw the ascending trendline at first , thats why I edit the post now. And also that trendline doesnt exist in the template file , you shud draw it manually)


Now let's check if the pair is perfect or not ? The ratio of perfectness is 1,618 , so I just wanted to try FiboArcs with only 1 and 1,618. There are different FiboArcs in the picture below (with different colours) , and as you can see 1,618 of every drawn FiboArc matches some important HIGH or LOW in the past , which makes them potential supports or resistences in the future too ... Here is the picture :


http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/9286/1618e.gif

As a conclusion , like every other air GBPUSD also is dominated by a geometric king which also respects the same ratio : 1,618 . Isnt it interesting ? But here comes the plurality of the potential targets , or potential turning points. Wat is the solution ? The answer for that question is the balance point of trading. Money menagement and PA (candle formations) will be the completory step in ur analysis


Regards...Have a nice weekend..

Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl 1618.tpl   5 KB | 434 downloads
File Type: tpl gbpusd.tpl   8 KB | 391 downloads
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #84
  • Jan 5, 2013 11:00am Jan 5, 2013 11:00am
UKOil ... Here we have one of the most obedient pairs (The minimum available LOT size is 1 LOT for this pair) , as you can see I tried to find the bullish and bearish cyclic trend-waves . The position of the price supports bearish scenarios. Cycles , yes , are useful , but still they do not tell you the exact scenario , but give us the possibilities. I tried to detect (the green magnet) the most possible target , but who knows...Time will show ..


http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/9595/ukoil.gif

Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #85
  • Jan 5, 2013 12:16pm Jan 5, 2013 12:16pm
http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/3...30105daily.png

1.65200 Up or 1.55865 down.
If the price breaks and bounces down off the '45°' Line, she is going South To selym_co's area. If she tests and fails to break below, Up she goes.

I reckon that up is here destination. See the other Picture 'prediction' of mine for EurUsd. EurUsd and GbpUsd are linked pairs. One goes up then so does the other. The EurUsd prediction was done with other tools. But the fact that the down 'test' is so close to the Fibarc, puts it at THE perfect launch point for going north.

<edit> I forgot to state. The FibArc is set 1,2,3..12 and scale at 144. The Arcs fit smoothly into earlier patterns on the chart </edit>
  • #86
  • Jan 5, 2013 12:31pm Jan 5, 2013 12:31pm
Quoting BlueMental
...1.65200 Up or 1.55865 down.
If the price breaks and bounces down off the '45°' Line, she is going South To selym_co's area. If she tests and fails to break below, Up she goes.

I reckon that up is here destination. See the other Picture 'prediction' of mine for EurUsd. EurUsd and GbpUsd are linked pairs. One goes up then so does the other. The EurUsd prediction was done with other tools. But the fact that the down 'test' is so close to the Fibarc, puts it at THE perfect launch point for going north.

<edit> I forgot to state. The FibArc is set...
I was exactly trying to find the real %45 angle and testing it in the other pairs....On the side its nice to see ur posts again

The pinbar in ur picture , in case it is confirmed by the daily close on Monday , then the "north" direction can be established . Or a LONG position can be taken with the pullback in smaller timeframes ... Honestly this pair scares me a lot , Its difficult to understand its explosive trends.

Anyway...thank you very much ...
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #87
  • Jan 5, 2013 2:45pm Jan 5, 2013 2:45pm
Hi,

Quoting selym_co
Gann seems to be wiser than me I was expecting 2978 today , and my pending BUY LIMIT orders are all located around those numbers...İts a shame that the price didnt go there

I am happy that ur trade goes on the right path .... enjoy the pips...
It is not a matter of wise or not, it's matter to stick to the plan. 1.2996 was given exactly by Bluemental to whom i say very good job, and for 20 pips more you also could win the trade, depending on your MM. I did not use the same calculation like him, but results confirm two ways, even yours if we take margin of these 20 pips.

Quoting selym_co
Hi Bluemental ,

But honestly I was amazed that you obtained 1,2996 in the end of ur calculations. There is still a secret interrupter in my mind asking "How can it happen?
Regarding pips to enjoy them, it is still far for that. No pips to be banked until a certain amount of money to be reached. The goal is compounding gains, whatever time it takes to this target. Trade is an extra job, then no hurry.


Good trading.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #88
  • Jan 6, 2013 2:40am Jan 6, 2013 2:40am
Hi,

Blue mental, seeing your analysis on SQ9 for prices and forecasting resistances and support, can you do the same for timing or it is valid only for prices?

Thanks.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #89
  • Jan 6, 2013 3:24am Jan 6, 2013 3:24am
Quoting selym_co
I was exactly trying to find the real %45 angle and testing it in the other pairs...
I find the 'easy way' of getting the 'real' 45° that is relative to your FibArcs is as follows:=

Let us say that you are using a FibArc with the scale set to 144. Which is 1440 minutes/10. Once you scale 'stretch' so it looks like a true circle, if you put a Gann Line at the centre, and you scale the Gann Linee to 144 (same as FibArc), then you have your true 45° to get the other two angles is 144 x 2 for top (2:1 ratio) and 144/2 for bottom (1:2 Ratio)

If you find that the price movement is bouncing off those 3 angles as Support and resistance, then you are in a way confirming your choice of scale (over and above that price action follows the arcs).

But remember, the Gann Lines scale 'wobbles' when you stretch the chart scale. and if you change timeframes, it goes completely wrong. So the best way to draw them that they do not 'move around' is with trend lines.

So you draw a trendline that stretches 10 bars. And the top=bottom of the trendline must equal 133 pips. 0.01440 for GbpUsd remember, the 5th digit is the 'half pips'. With the 3 digit pairs, 141.000 +144 pips is 142.440 (1.440 = 144 pips)
  • #90
  • Jan 6, 2013 3:32am Jan 6, 2013 3:32am
Quoting selym_co
Honestly this pair scares me a lot , Its difficult to understand its explosive trends.
That is the main reason that prediction (in the long run) always fails.

It is only good in the sense that we know (more or less) where the likelyhood of price movement is for a given situation on chart. We can 'see' that she is:-

1. Going to visit the Hairdresser (North)
2. Going to the Deli (South)
3. Not made up her mind yet (Ranging East)

And since we (perverts that we are) know her moves and routes (patterns), once she chooses a path, THEN we enter trade. It is rare that she chooses Deli then stops and about turns for Hairdresser. That is how Gann Got so many winning trades. He waited for what you call the 'explosions' but he also had several time points where he knew they are most likely to occur.
  • #91
  • Jan 6, 2013 8:41am Jan 6, 2013 8:41am
Quoting Alki
Hi,

Blue mental, seeing your analysis on SQ9 for prices and forecasting resistances and support, can you do the same for timing or it is valid only for prices?

Thanks.
Hi Alki.

The explanation of the Square of 9 is far from complete. Not only that, my knowledge of it is also far from complete. I do not yet know how Don Hall calculated what degree of the time cycle the price is currently in. Based on 1000's of example pictures of trades he has entered (not just shown drawings on chart), his method works.

If you wish to find out what it is, read the Pyrapoint PDF. I do not follow easily what Don describes. Maybe you will do better. I prefer the Gunner24 method since the Time Lines are directly related to the price movement via FibArcs and Gann Lines. I can see it visually and I do not have to refer to another separate system (like Sq9).

But once you have nuilt a few Gann Grids (as shown how in my last post), you get a better 'feel' for seeing the likely change places. Every intersection of the Grid diamond is a major meridian. While it is most likely not a major meridian on Sq9, it is in relation to the 'timespan' defined by the diamonds.

Talking and reading about it helps a bit, but in the end, the only way to get any understanding is by doing it. Show us what you have done. Explain your ideas and how and why you did what you did, and together we can learn more.
  • #92
  • Edited 1:12pm Jan 6, 2013 10:25am | Edited 1:12pm
Hi friends ,

I use a different way for finding the real 45 angle , and I think its not difficult and easy to apply on the chart. I just wanted to use XAUUSD chart as an example , because ı think its one of the most harmonic pairs in this Forex market. Anyway , the validity of 45 degree will amaze you too ...

First of all I just try to find the best scale number for the ARCS which fit on the chart. After finding the best scale then I choose one of the circles for the process. Later I just draw a horizantal line which passes through the reference point of the circular waves. That reference point is market with a green dot in the picture. And I also draw a vertical line which passes through the same reference point.

http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/6840/altn1.gif

Later I just pick the Andrews Pitchfork tool , and draw a picthfork with the three reference points.

 

  1. The reference point on which all of the circles are settled
  2. The intersection of the horizantal line and the circle which I chose in the beginning (marked with green)
  3. The intersection of the vertical line and the circle which I chose in the beginning (marked with green too)

When we draw such a pitchfork ; the median line (in the middle - marked with a pink trendline) is the real 45 degree angle which really dominated the price . And also I did the same with the other circles and obtained some other paralell lines (still 45 degree) about which ı am not sure But at least we obtained the real 45 which was an important angle for GANN ...


http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/9296/altn2t.gif



I was trying the same things on GBPUSD last nite , but o didnt get good results , that pair still scares me , I will never be cool enough to understand wat that weird pair is trying to do , EURUSD is much better and understandable ...


Regards ...


Quote
EDIT : After BlueMental's suggestion , I added two more angles on the chart , and here is the result ...

http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/6332/fancircle.gif

It is still not the turning point of nirvana , but it makes me happy to see the affectiveness of the angles in this market behaviour. The symmetry and harmony never ends...



Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #93
  • Jan 6, 2013 11:15am Jan 6, 2013 11:15am
Quoting BlueMental
Hi Alki.

The explanation of the Square of 9 is far from complete. Not only that, my knowledge of it is also far from complete. I do not yet know how Don Hall calculated what degree of the time cycle the price is currently in. Based on 1000's of example pictures of trades he has entered (not just shown drawings on chart), his method works.

If you wish to find out what it is, read the Pyrapoint PDF. I do not follow easily what Don describes. Maybe you will do better. I prefer the Gunner24 method since the Time Lines are directly related to the...

Hi,

Thanks for reply. I'll try to find pdf and will reply you soon if found my research.

Mastering time is the most difficult and get frustrated, angry, nervous, huge times. Why sometimes there is a retrace which happens sometimes in space of minutes only, destroying your BE and then going to the right direction, and sometimes went to direction straightly?..etc. Examples are many for a trader with some experience with live account. Why a market moved 30 pips in that minute and not 4 minutes later and not 2 minutes earlier, without any news, any explanation? We could as technical traders see by different strategies that this move could happen, but why at that moment and we never have an explanation? Forget about what you see in some news: market is on the red because of profit taking..etc. There is no day to take profit in the market, and if someone took his profit means he is selling his position (as big as it could be) to somebody else, and this somebody else is taking this same position to loose then. You hear also market is buying EURO because risk appetite comes back, means for example we was in the red up to friday closing the market and traders after having a nice week-end come back and decide to take risk and vice-versa as we were in the green at closing the market, but maybe there was a rain or problem in there couples during the week-end, traders come back in the market and decide to take a revanche against the market and tell us after that it is time to go to currencies safe heaven. No, there is for sure more serious and mathematical explanation. Hazard does not exist in forex. It is not a big casino. Look at the different moves in your charts, from ticks, minutes to monthly, do you really feel it is hazardous?

When you try to get a higher dimension in your trading style, you can not if you do not master time. According to the biggest traders, this is the most important, price come after. As some one said, instinctively we are studying prices when arrived at financial market. We began already with a great disadvantage. Problem is that majority of books, strategies, indicators ..etc are showing prices, but the most important is never shown. As a technical traders we believe that prices is far from random, hazard ..etc, but if hazard never exist in price, why should we believe that exist in time? Why Gann and other never stop to say that time is the most important?
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #94
  • Jan 6, 2013 12:55pm Jan 6, 2013 12:55pm
Quoting selym_co
Later I just pick the Andrews Pitchfork tool , and draw a picthfork with the three reference points.
That is a cool method. Only one thing, While 45° is a 'major' angle, it is only one of many. ALL The half of half ratios are 'big' depending on which particular angle fits with the general 'style' or 'mood' of the pair or commodity or whatever you are charting.

It does not do much good to use 45° (1:1 ratio) if the predominant trend angle is (0.25:1)

As I showed you, there are normally 2 angles that 'matter' the one the zigzag follows, and the one the 'zoomed out' channel follows. I guess you can use the Pitchfork for those angles too. One of the angles 'might' be 45° but don't assume. Just check what it is in the previous bars. If the angle for the last 1000 bars is 2:1, the likelihood of it remaining so is very high.
  • #95
  • Jan 6, 2013 1:03pm Jan 6, 2013 1:03pm
Quoting Alki
Mastering time is the most difficult and get frustrated, angry, nervous, huge times.
I do not have much problem with the 'time' part of trading. I try my best to see a situation, either a channel, or a FibArc pattern, or whatever, where I can 'see' that the price has bounced as I expected it to and will go until it reaches a destination point (or near it) that fits the pattern.

Then I enter the trade, and wait for one of 2 things. For it to show me that it is breaking the pattern formation,. If it does this I am supposed to exit, but I usually don't (stupid me). Or the second thing, it reaches the destination and I close the trade.

When will it reach the destination? Who cares when. As long as it is on it's way there, all is good. If it is turning around in any unusual way that I do not understand, I'm out of there.
  • #96
  • Jan 6, 2013 1:30pm Jan 6, 2013 1:30pm
Neither of these two angles are 45°, and I set scale fix so you can see they are the same two Gann Grids at the exact same angle.

The pathways that the pair follows remains the same. Only difference is that in 1999 The Red was primary, while now it is Secondary.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Angle Set.png Size: 57 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Angle Now 2013.png Size: 55 KB
  • #97
  • Jan 6, 2013 3:58pm Jan 6, 2013 3:58pm
Quoting BlueMental
When will it reach the destination? Who cares when. As long as it is on it's way there, all is good. If it is turning around in any unusual way that I do not understand, I'm out of there.
It is not a matter of when to reach destination, it is a matter when the real move will begin. This is the real question. I faced this problem many and many times. With this, i was waiting, waiting and waiting up to 8 and even 10 days, not trading because of whole risk MM strategy and with that paying rollover everyday because i do not know when start the move. Add to this, a complete strategy has to be confirmed by price and time, not only pattern of price. Of course, this is my point of view and every trader choose whatever he wants and what ever he feels good to trade with.

Coming back to the subject of the thread, attached file shows two circles before market open.

Good trading for all.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR1.jpg Size: 60 KB
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #98
  • Jan 6, 2013 5:20pm Jan 6, 2013 5:20pm
Quoting Alki
It is not a matter of when to reach destination, it is a matter when the real move will begin. This is the real question. I faced this problem many and many times. With this, i was waiting, waiting and waiting up to 8 and even 10 days, not trading because of whole risk MM strategy and with that paying rollover everyday because i do not know when start the move. Add to this, a complete strategy has to be confirmed by price and time, not only pattern of price. Of course, this is my point of view and every trader choose whatever he wants and what ever...
Alki thanks for ur contribution to the topic ... The way you use the circles look like Kambooj's usage. If you like you cna check his thread too. I shared the link of his thread in the first post. He is much more experienced than me ....Yes , I am good at using them too But I cannot and shudnt hide the sun too !!

About the timing of the trend , I do not also know such a method to detect when the trend will start going to the target. And I agree with BlueMental that its not very important as long as the price reaches the target. And if you do not want to wait for long times, then what you shud do is to change the timeframe. But going to lower timeframes is like going to a jungle after growing up in a city ... I mean its difficult...

Waiting .... it is one of the specialities of a successfull trader , I mean we shud learn it if we want to exist for long times in this market. So (its just a friendly suggestion) if u feel bad about waiting then you shud accept it as a weakness in ur strategy . Maybe you shud give a break . I also experienced similar feelings in the past. Uncertainity is the most difficult thing ...

On the other side I agree with you that time and price are the parts of the same whole thing , they are connected in a way. That is still a mystery for me , and I do not think its easy ...
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #99
  • Jan 6, 2013 5:32pm Jan 6, 2013 5:32pm
Hi everybody....
still much fog on my walk

Just a simple suggestion about 45° lines.
Why not using menu command: Insert> Lines > Trendline by angles
then choose the preferred angle.
Of course it will move on zooming and tf change.
Thus, simply overlay a hand-drawn trendline on the previous one (and keep the last)
  • #100
  • Jan 6, 2013 5:59pm Jan 6, 2013 5:59pm
A study on dollar/swiss - 4h, with 'newborn' 45° lines.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf waves.jpg Size: 143 KB
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