If we have 7.8 % rate, and FED seeks for 6.5%. And IF for some mirracle we get 0.1% decline every month, then 13 months at min, so to end QE's solely on employment data in 2013 looks just too unreal..
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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies
DislikedHalkins is clear to me simple charts can be read and a skilled chartist can see the "whale" As in any ocean the sea has many whales of various sizes and at various depths ..... but they can not hide......... they can be found and just do as they doIgnored
DislikedI actually think that the moves fell in line very nicely when looking at EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD. When looking at EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD price has come back down (retraced) to their weekly trend lines almost perfectly.Ignored
DislikedIf we have 7.8 % trate, and FED seeks for 6.5%. And IF for some mirracle we get 0.1% decline every month, then 13 months at min, so to end QE's solely on employment data in 2013 looks just too unreal..Ignored
DislikedYou're mixing QE with rate increases when you talk about FED's new benchmarks. So, IF we should get an unemployment level at or near 6,5% by the end of the year then the FED is (at least that's the expectations) raising rates not just ending QE.Ignored
DislikedHi Alorente,
If you're interested I posted my analysis with charts for AUD/USD and GBP/USD here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post6337698
Hopefully this helps...Ignored
DislikedHi Alorente,
If you're interested I posted my analysis with charts for AUD/USD and GBP/USD here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post6337698
Hopefully this helps...Ignored
DislikedYou're mixing QE with rate increases when you talk about FED's new benchmarks. So, IF we should get an unemployment level at or near 6,5% by the end of the year then the FED is (at least that's the expectations) raising rates not just ending QE.Ignored
DislikedPersonally I dount think that unemplayment will approach these levels ever because of technology/modernisation that takes out manual workIgnored
DislikedCan somebody tell me what higher treasury yield does for the USD?
You can see that the benchmark yield on the 10-year Treasury Note has exploded out of a multi-month range.
It hit 1.97% earlier this morning, the highest since last May, after breaking a downtrend that goes all the way back to February of 2011!
http://finance.moneyandmarkets.com/m...2622/chart.gifIgnored
Dislikedindeed. many don't grasp the true gravity of the treasury bubble. if there is a successful test of fed credibility (denoted by Lacker today), there will be a serious, catastrophic problem with debt sustainability that will likely dwarf the housing bubble.Ignored
Dislikedif japan is an indicator, it would be extremely bullish for the USD. yields increase, bond prices decrease, usd appreciates
honestly, i dont think anyone can say for sure. we would be in uncharted territoryIgnored