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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #32,581
  • Jan 4, 2013 5:06am Jan 4, 2013 5:06am
hello.
Why did you short?

Quoting fatpanda
SHORT AT 88.25
First target 85.60 with 99% confidence
second target 83.20 wiht 59% confidence
  • #32,582
  • Jan 4, 2013 7:17am Jan 4, 2013 7:17am
I am trying to anticipate what to expect from the USD/JPY, knowing one can never can rely of what will happen in the FX market. I know where the price is now is a critical range, and the next critical price point is 94.700. I attached a weekly and monthly chart for the the USD/JPY to illustrate what I am looking at.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD-JPY W1 1-4-2013 8-02-46 AM.jpg Size: 171 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USD-JPY M1 1-4-2013 8-13-01 AM.jpg Size: 162 KB
  • #32,583
  • Jan 4, 2013 7:35am Jan 4, 2013 7:35am
- NFP figure.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NFP.png Size: 21 KB
  • #32,584
  • Edited 1:34pm Jan 4, 2013 8:23am | Edited 1:34pm
- I don't know how Mr. Market will react with nfp figure, but I trade what I see.

- Cheers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ m30.png Size: 19 KB
  • #32,585
  • Jan 4, 2013 1:39pm Jan 4, 2013 1:39pm
Well one of them is bound to be right.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #32,586
  • Jan 4, 2013 1:42pm Jan 4, 2013 1:42pm
Quoting fatpanda
SHORT AT 88.25
First target 85.60 with 99% confidence
second target 83.20 wiht 59% confidence
What justification do you have for this? The closest level I would even consider shorting at is 88.93, and that would be contingent on good price action verifying the reversal. Weekly chart attached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.png Size: 52 KB
  • #32,587
  • Jan 4, 2013 2:06pm Jan 4, 2013 2:06pm
Quoting brinks
Anyone think a nasty sell off may be coming?
I wouldn't expect anything more than some occasional profit taking here and there (great spots to add in & reload longs) until after January 12/13 when Abe lays out his plan for reaching the inflation target he's expecting & even the based on how solid of a plan he lays out we could be in for a lot more upside. It's safe to say at this point we seem to be in the early stages of an uptrend. These pairs have been in a 10+ year downtrend, that doesn't mean I don't think there will be sell offs along the way but as of right now the easy money seems to be to the upside & any sell off should be watched closely to establish fresh longs or add into existing longs until the markets tell us otherwise.
It works till it doesn't
  • #32,588
  • Jan 4, 2013 2:27pm Jan 4, 2013 2:27pm
Quoting DaEdge
I wouldn't expect anything more than some occasional profit taking here and there (great spots to add in & reload longs) until after January 12/13 when Abe lays out his plan for reaching the inflation target he's expecting & even the based on how solid of a plan he lays out we could be in for a lot more upside. It's safe to say at this point we seem to be in the early stages of an uptrend. These pairs have been in a 10+ year downtrend, that doesn't mean I don't think there will be sell offs along the way but as of right now the easy money seems...
Hi how's it going.
Again this week I bit the bullet and went long on the dips.
I'm flat again now as it seems to be at a extreme as you say buy dips and add on breaks up.
  • #32,589
  • Jan 4, 2013 7:31pm Jan 4, 2013 7:31pm
Quoting brinks
Hi how's it going.
Again this week I bit the bullet and went long on the dips.
I'm flat again now as it seems to be at a extreme as you say buy dips and add on breaks up.
All good here sir. Hope all is well with you. I'm just starting to get back to the charts seriously as of yesterday. I'm sticking to buying any weakness & booking profits into any bursts of strength.
It works till it doesn't
  • #32,590
  • Jan 5, 2013 5:46am Jan 5, 2013 5:46am
USD/JPY will reach 89.00 shortly ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: yen.gif Size: 36 KB
let the chart to be your chauffeur ... -Forexmnstr-
  • #32,591
  • Jan 6, 2013 2:48am Jan 6, 2013 2:48am
Happy New Year to you guys, Cheers DaEdge, bricks, robert and moneyholic .

Starting this evening I will get back to my longs on USDJPY because my charts tell me that the next target is $95 .


P.S: I would like to speak with that gentleman who said that I'm a fool who is looking for the gold pot in December , guess what? I found it
  • #32,592
  • Jan 6, 2013 4:00am Jan 6, 2013 4:00am
Quoting MisterSpread
Happy New Year to you guys, Cheers DaEdge, bricks, robert and moneyholic .

Starting this evening I will get back to my longs on USDJPY because my charts tell me that the next target is $95 .


P.S: I would like to speak with that gentleman who said that I'm a fool who is looking for the gold pot in December , guess what? I found it
Happy new year to you also,

Rumblings that the japanese are happy with the yen price at these levels towards 90.

But people like jim oneil are talking 100-120.
  • #32,593
  • Jan 6, 2013 12:06pm Jan 6, 2013 12:06pm
possible short entery point! just for day trading.
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just live a life, don't be hard.
  • #32,594
  • Jan 6, 2013 12:22pm Jan 6, 2013 12:22pm
Quoting MisterSpread
Happy New Year to you guys, Cheers DaEdge, bricks, robert and moneyholic .

Starting this evening I will get back to my longs on USDJPY because my charts tell me that the next target is $95 .


P.S: I would like to speak with that gentleman who said that I'm a fool who is looking for the gold pot in December , guess what? I found it
Happy New Year Sir, I hope the holidays were good to you & the family. ^^ I couldn't agree more. If you like a set up or an idea the time of year is meaningless. The last 6 weeks of the year was my best ROI all year & the trades couldn't be easier if they tried.
It works till it doesn't
  • #32,595
  • Jan 6, 2013 12:28pm Jan 6, 2013 12:28pm
Quoting brinks
Happy new year to you also,

Rumblings that the japanese are happy with the yen price at these levels towards 90.

But people like jim oneil are talking 100-120.
Just imagine how much happier they would be if its around 120. If I'm not mistaken 90 is basically a break even price for exporters & will really give there business a much needed kick start. Ill post some charts later when I can, but this PA has been very uniform & clean. It's definitely safe to say we are at the early stages of a trend reversal in the crosses that have been in a 10+ year downtrend. Will it continue to hold only time will tell. As traders we need to be very aware of the levels we are at & be ready to adapt to the conditions, it seems to me the easier money is to the upside & and any sell offs should be treated as profit taking & areas to look to add in & reestablish long positions.
It works till it doesn't
  • #32,596
  • Jan 6, 2013 12:32pm Jan 6, 2013 12:32pm
Quoting DaEdge
Just imagine how much happier they would be if its around 120. If I'm not mistaken 90 is basically a break even price for exporters & will really give there business a much needed kick start. Ill post some charts later when I can, but this PA has been very uniform & clean. It's definitely safe to say we are at the early stages of a trend reversal in the crosses that have been in a 10+ year downtrend. Will it continue to hold only time will tell. As traders we need to be very aware of the levels we are at & be ready to adapt to the conditions, it...

I agree completely but do the Japanese want it to weaken that quickly?
  • #32,597
  • Jan 6, 2013 12:48pm Jan 6, 2013 12:48pm
Quoting brinks
I agree completely but do the Japanese want it to weaken that quickly?
This is a great question & I wish I had a definite answer because I load the boat up & hang on for the ride. As of now only time will tell & all we can do is pay attention to the story the PA is telling us, which is more up at the moment. This can all change very quickly so we need to stay nimble.
It works till it doesn't
  • #32,598
  • Jan 6, 2013 12:56pm Jan 6, 2013 12:56pm
Quoting DaEdge
This is a great question & I wish I had a definite answer because I load the boat up & hang on for the ride. As of now only time will tell & all we can do is pay attention to the story the PA is telling us, which is more up at the moment. This can all change very quickly so we need to stay nimble.

A little downside correction to start the week to get a better price would be nice
  • #32,599
  • Jan 6, 2013 1:49pm Jan 6, 2013 1:49pm
Quoting brinks
A little downside correction to start the week to get a better price would be nice
Agreed
It works till it doesn't
  • #32,600
  • Jan 6, 2013 3:33pm Jan 6, 2013 3:33pm
Quoting DaEdge
Agreed
the yen WON'T fall more !
otherwise ships, factory orders, production capacity, japanese seriousness, warehouses... they will all be in trouble; collapsed, empty or whatever other tragic word you can find.
usd/jpy will fall a bit
I'll shop after the drop
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