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  • #64,501
  • Jan 3, 2013 2:12pm Jan 3, 2013 2:12pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Yeah it's a nice avatar...

You might want to ask Jason if it's okay though. It's a registered trademark and FXCM probably don't want others to think that you represent them.

Just saying

Perhaps you should crop it to remove the FXCM part and just keep the graphic.

Hey PT - you're supposed to be moving house and enjoying a nice bottle of 20 year old GF - so cheers to your new abode from me and the pussy (cat) on my lap with a glass of 5 year old Rioja
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #64,502
  • Jan 3, 2013 2:30pm Jan 3, 2013 2:30pm
Quoting Islander
Hey PT - you're supposed to be moving house and enjoying a nice bottle of 20 year old GF - so cheers to your new abode from me and the pussy (cat) on my lap with a glass of 5 year old Rioja
Thanks buddy.

What can I say? I'm hooked

http://cdn1.ltttmstatic.com/wp-conte...-addiction.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,503
  • Jan 3, 2013 2:53pm Jan 3, 2013 2:53pm
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  • #64,504
  • Jan 4, 2013 4:37am Jan 4, 2013 4:37am
Quoting chodd22
+ 178 k
Well now it is known that ADP can be very misleading at times. I tend to go low VS high so my GUESS will be 110,000 and the more important number will be the UI rate as that is the Credibility Number.

Where has everyone gone in our friends absence ? It could be a fun day. NFP in less than 3 hours. Good guessing everyone.
  • #64,505
  • Jan 4, 2013 5:08am Jan 4, 2013 5:08am
I just got to read the following in my email from Gains, Pains and Capital.

I find it to be very very IMPORTANT especially in light of the FOMC minutes released yesterday.


January 4, 2013



Did the Fed Lie About QE 3 and QE 4?

It's common belief that Bernanke and the Fed are printing $85 billion per month ($40 billion to buy Mortgage Backed Securities and $45 billion to buy Treasuries). After all, these are the policies that the Fed announced in September and December 2012, respectively.
The only issue with this is that the Fed lied.

Today, the Fed's balance sheet is $1.3 billion smaller than it was at this time last year. Last week it was $19 billion smaller. The largest year over year growth the Fed balance sheet has shown since QE 3 was announced occurred on November 23, 2012 when the Fed balance sheet was a mere $48 billion larger than it was at the same point in 2011.
Since that time the Fed balance sheet has shrunken year over year.
The implications of this are severe. If the Fed is indeed not employing the policies it announces but is simply engaging in verbal intervention (stating it will do something just so the markets react), then it has lost total credibility as a monetary authority and is nothing more than a market manipulator.
http://gainspainscapital.com/wp-cont...13/01/sc-6.png
Consider the above chart... the S&P 500 today is 14% higher than it was this time last year. Over the same time period, the Fed's balance sheet has shrunken. This is proof positive that stocks have not only disconnected from economic fundamentals... but are now disconnected from the Fed's actual actions.
Put another way, stock investors are now bullish based on their belief that the Fed is pumping $85 billion in the system every month and nothing more.
Not every asset class is this mindless. Consider Gold's recent action:
http://gainspainscapital.com/wp-cont...13/01/sc-7.png
Considering that the Fed announced QE 3 in September and QE 4 in December, Gold should be soaring. Instead it peaked right around the time QE 3 was announced and has since fallen. Year over year it's barely higher.

All of this adds yet more evidence that the Fed is in fact running out of ammo. We already knew that the Fed believed in verbal intervention as a tool for dealing with the markets. But now it's clear that this is the primary tool for the Fed. This hardly bodes well for the financial system.

Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research





  • #64,506
  • Jan 4, 2013 5:32am Jan 4, 2013 5:32am
Quoting CurrencyMan
I just got to read the following in my email from Gains, Pains and Capital.

I find it to be very very IMPORTANT especially in light of the FOMC minutes released yesterday.


January 4, 2013



Did the Fed Lie About QE 3 and QE 4?

It's common belief that Bernanke and the Fed are printing $85 billion per month ($40 billion to buy Mortgage Backed Securities and $45 billion to buy Treasuries). After all, these are the policies that the Fed announced in September and December 2012, respectively....
I agree there is a clear disconnect between Gold and S&P500. This has happened temporarily in the past until they line up again. It will be so again this time. Probably Gold catching up with S&P500. I don´t think this stock market wants to come down.

What I find hard to believe is that the FED is deceiving anyone when the balance sheet is public. There must be another reason for this and I am sure the number will be much higher in a few months.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #64,507
  • Edited 6:26am Jan 4, 2013 5:33am | Edited 6:26am
Quoting Alorente
Probably Gold catching up with S&P500.
not really. s&p rally from the past week is WAY overdone. we're 15 handles from all time highs
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #64,508
  • Jan 4, 2013 6:48am Jan 4, 2013 6:48am
Quoting redteamgo
not really. s&p rally from the past week is WAY overdone. we're 15 handles from all time highs
I think we are going higher to new highs. "Don´t Fight the FED..."
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #64,509
  • Jan 4, 2013 6:52am Jan 4, 2013 6:52am
My guess is 162 K. Agreed the UR is key. ITM 50 pips from my short @65.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #64,510
  • Edited 7:09am Jan 4, 2013 6:55am | Edited 7:09am
Quoting Alorente
I think we are going higher to new highs. "Don´t Fight the FED..."
did you read the FOMC minutes? there is a growing pool of dissenters that want to end QE. geithner is leaving office likely in january. jobs data is coming in favorably which are now directly linked to qe operations. monetary policy is leading to far more hawkish ground. i would argue that youre on the wrong side of not fighting the fed. but hey, you could be correct -- new s&p highs could be reached before then. that surely does not mean gold will realign with equity, especially with probably soft Q4 earnings emerging.

take a gander at treasury prices. bond traders are FAR more astute than anyone else out there. they know what is coming which is why 10y, 30y have already sold off several handles from 20+ YEAR highs. in fact, ill go on to say that if the fed ends QE earlier than expected, bond prices are going to plummet. who wants to be long bonds when the biggest buyer (the fed) stops buying? short 30y really could be the trade of a life time because when QE stops, we might be looking at 20 handle move down. that is SERIOUS money.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #64,511
  • Jan 4, 2013 7:21am Jan 4, 2013 7:21am
Something interesting to watch awaiting NFP...
4 min video

Inserted Video
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #64,512
  • Jan 4, 2013 7:26am Jan 4, 2013 7:26am
last comment: do you think FOMC members wont change their minds and timeframe for QE and <2.5% inflation w/ 6.5% unemployment? i think such an opinion would be pretty short sighted. having said that, its not as if i am running out to short treasuries right now. but we seem to be on the cusp of change.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #64,513
  • Jan 4, 2013 7:28am Jan 4, 2013 7:28am
Quoting redteamgo
did you read the FOMC minutes? there is a growing pool of dissenters that want to end QE. geithner is leaving office likely in january. jobs data is coming in favorably which are now directly linked to qe operations. monetary policy is leading to far more hawkish ground. i would argue that youre on the wrong side of not fighting the fed. but hey, you could be correct -- new s&p highs could be reached before then. that surely does not mean gold will realign with equity, especially with probably soft Q4 earnings emerging.

take a gander at...
Good Morning Fellow Traders and Perhaps Some Ladies as Well...

Here is my personal view on the last few posts concerning the FED.

There is a big disconnect between the Cash Price of Gold and the Futures. We will see a SHORT squeeze once we go over $1900 US most likely.

The comment about US Bonds is DEAD on as this is the BUBBLE to end all Bubbles...

When the US Bonds come down just as Bill Gross has been calling then Interest Rates will rise substantially. The FED may say they will stop buying US Bonds however along with Jim Sinclair I doubt it.

The last Fiscal Cliff Comedy only set the stage for DEBT CEILING ACT TWO.... Stay Tuned that comes in February 2013.

The only mystery left is why they are not buying according to the charts produced earlier. Perhaps the PRICE of Gold is the issue and what better way to send it down so that the Russia and China can keep buying. Also Gold as now Tier One Collateral since January 1, 2013 in most parts of the world.

Now on to NFP of 110,000 ....

Good Trading !!! Follow The Money Flow...
  • #64,514
  • Jan 4, 2013 7:46am Jan 4, 2013 7:46am
Quoting redteamgo
did you read the FOMC minutes? there is a growing pool of dissenters that want to end QE. geithner is leaving office likely in january. jobs data is coming in favorably which are now directly linked to qe operations. monetary policy is leading to far more hawkish ground. i would argue that youre on the wrong side of not fighting the fed. but hey, you could be correct -- new s&p highs could be reached before then. that surely does not mean gold will realign with equity, especially with probably soft Q4 earnings emerging.

take a gander at...
Everything you just stated makes total, perfect sense. That´s why it probably won´t happen.

I was shorting EurUsd till it tested 1.30. It did so this morning. I now think we are going higher on Eur, Aud, Gbp, Nzd, S&P500. etc.

Gold may not be aligned with the S&P for a while. There is a perception of low inflation out there which is bad for gold. Sooner or later it will catch up. It may be a while though. Same for Oil.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #64,515
  • Jan 4, 2013 7:49am Jan 4, 2013 7:49am
Quoting Alorente
Everything you just stated makes total, perfect sense. That´s why it probably won´t happen.

I was shorting EurUsd till it tested 1.30. It did so this morning. I now think we are going higher on Eur, Aud, Gbp, Nzd, S&P500. etc.

Gold may not be aligned with the S&P for a while. There is a perception of low inflation out there which is bad for gold. Sooner or later it will catch up. It may be a while though. Same for Oil.
Hi Alorente,

If you're interested I posted my analysis with charts for AUD/USD and GBP/USD here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post6337698

Hopefully this helps...
  • #64,516
  • Jan 4, 2013 7:52am Jan 4, 2013 7:52am
Quoting Alorente
Everything you just stated makes total, perfect sense. That´s why it probably won´t happen.

I was shorting EurUsd till it tested 1.30. It did so this morning. I now think we are going higher on Eur, Aud, Gbp, Nzd, S&P500. etc.

Gold may not be aligned with the S&P for a while. There is a perception of low inflation out there which is bad for gold. Sooner or later it will catch up. It may be a while though. Same for Oil.
I know what you mean. Any technical analysis could be very tricky until next week.
What I don't really like is all markets are completely dispersed in first three trading days of 2013…
They just don’t go together.
Indices don’t move at all after initial “europhoria” disappointment, EURUSD falls like hell, Aussie reacts nearly 36 hours later, and Cable (GBP) breaks by 80pips its 5month resistance only to see it turn back the same day…
Welcome to forex


-
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #64,517
  • Jan 4, 2013 7:57am Jan 4, 2013 7:57am
Quoting halkins
I know what you mean. Any technical analysis could be very tricky until next week.
What I don't really like is all markets are completely dispersed in first three trading days of 2013…
They just don’t go together.
Indices don’t move at all after initial “europhoria” disappointment, EURUSD falls like hell, Aussie reacts nearly 36 hours later, and Cable (GBP) breaks by 80pips its 5month resistance only to see it turn back the same day…
Welcome to forex


-

I actually think that the moves fell in line very nicely when looking at EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD. When looking at EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD price has come back down (retraced) to their weekly trend lines almost perfectly.

Now, what I see happening is E/A and G/A picking up momentum in the mid term, therefore, I am bearish on AUD/USD even more so then EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The setups to short AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and NZD/USD are looking pretty sweet when looking at monthly and weekly charts!
  • #64,518
  • Jan 4, 2013 7:57am Jan 4, 2013 7:57am
Quoting Alorente
Everything you just stated makes total, perfect sense. That´s why it probably won´t happen.

I was shorting EurUsd till it tested 1.30. It did so this morning. I now think we are going higher on Eur, Aud, Gbp, Nzd, S&P500. etc.

Gold may not be aligned with the S&P for a while. There is a perception of low inflation out there which is bad for gold. Sooner or later it will catch up. It may be a while though. Same for Oil.
yes. timing is everything. i suppose the summary is that one should keep an open mind. if the s&p tests the gap up from the joke of a tax deal from the last day of the year and bounces, i surely will be long. i'd rather make money than be right
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #64,519
  • Jan 4, 2013 8:06am Jan 4, 2013 8:06am
Indeed
Quoting redteamgo
last comment: do you think FOMC members wont change their minds and timeframe for QE and <2.5% inflation w/ 6.5% unemployment? i think such an opinion would be pretty short sighted. having said that, its not as if i am running out to short treasuries right now. but we seem to be on the cusp of change.
Trading Consultants Inc JJG
  • #64,520
  • Jan 4, 2013 8:07am Jan 4, 2013 8:07am
Halkins is clear to me simple charts can be read and a skilled chartist can see the "whale" As in any ocean the sea has many whales of various sizes and at various depths ..... but they can not hide......... they can be found and just do as they do

Quoting halkins
I know what you mean. Any technical analysis could be very tricky until next week.
What I don't really like is all markets are completely dispersed in first three trading days of 2013…
They just don’t go together.
Indices don’t move at all after initial “europhoria” disappointment, EURUSD falls like hell, Aussie reacts nearly 36 hours later, and Cable (GBP) breaks by 80pips its 5month resistance only to see it turn back the same day…
Welcome to forex


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Trading Consultants Inc JJG
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