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  • #741,321
  • Jan 3, 2013 2:58pm Jan 3, 2013 2:58pm
Also i see dolar index going to 80.70, i guess 3050 will decide, maybe niceone for long, but not taking it, flatski
  • #741,322
  • Jan 3, 2013 3:03pm Jan 3, 2013 3:03pm
Im not sure why EURUSD keeps digging so dramatically since yesterday... what is the fundamental behind this?
  • #741,323
  • Jan 3, 2013 3:05pm Jan 3, 2013 3:05pm
Quoting divak
Im not sure why EURUSD keeps digging so dramatically since yesterday... what is the fundamental behind this?
ADP showing better than forecast figures, and NFP usually correlates with ADP.... so ADP is hinting NFP to come out better than expected too....
and if thats the case.... the Fed may stop their QE3/QEinfinite operation, that means they will stop printing Money as they see US economy recovering... US Employment recovering, US Housing market recovering... the 2 main focus for FED's Printing press... now that those are recovering, fed dont need to print money, no money need printing means no more need to devalue the dollar... meanings Dollar can finally meet the long awaited demand strength

FOMC minutes today also took a hawkish stance and talked about cutting back their QE scheme....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #741,324
  • Jan 3, 2013 3:08pm Jan 3, 2013 3:08pm
Quoting fxtyrant
ADP showing better than forecast figures, and NFP usually correlates with ADP.... so ADP is hinting NFP to come out better than expected too....
and if thats the case.... the Fed may stop their QE3/QEinfinite operation, that means they will stop printing Money as they see US economy recovering... US Employment recovering, US Housing market recovering... the 2 main focus for FED's Printing press... now that those are recovering, fed dont need to print money, no money need printing means no more need to devalue the dollar... meanings Dollar can finally...
...... well regarding QE, the stop of operation was mentionned to be mid-2013 at best... it's not going to happen tmr...
but anyway i was not talking abt the last 3h move. I was talking abt what was before... the jump to 1.33 then the unstoppable move to where we are now.
People dont give a damn abt FC anymore now?
  • #741,325
  • Jan 3, 2013 3:10pm Jan 3, 2013 3:10pm
Quoting Vachus
I'm keeping an eye on early January & early May 2011 - i think it have alot of similarities with the current move ... Which kind of end 1.297 ! Good luck anyway

The area between 1.30600 - 1.30400 is a reverse area for me , i will be watching it and i don't think it will be crossed easily = But i might be wrong.
I think it is just trying to park itself near 1.3000 before NFP. Next week, we go from there. Where? I don't know yet. US economy gives me chill.

This may not be the right time to engage in this discussion, but I believe any currency that is dependent upon the economy and policies of only one country has little logic to be a reserve currency. Euro is a regional currency.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #741,326
  • Jan 3, 2013 3:10pm Jan 3, 2013 3:10pm
Quoting divak
...... well regarding QE, the stop of operation was mentionned to be mid-2013 at best... it's not going to happen tmr...
but anyway i was not talking abt the last 3h move. I was talking abt what was before... the jump to 1.33 then the unstoppable move to where we are now.
People dont give a damn abt FC anymore now?
you are right... regarding QE the stop of operation is mentioned to be mid 2013, but speculators are already moving to buy up the Dollar as this deadline seem more and more firm as the US economy is chucking out good economic data to literally say "We had enough money now.... gota to stop the printing press" but banks are always one step ahead my friend soooo yes stop of operation is mid 2013 but banks and smart money are already moving money around to buy up the dollar big time....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #741,327
  • Jan 3, 2013 3:12pm Jan 3, 2013 3:12pm
Quoting divak
Im not sure why EURUSD keeps digging so dramatically since yesterday... what is the fundamental behind this?
The fundamental reason behind it is the Smart Money is selling.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #741,328
  • Jan 3, 2013 3:14pm Jan 3, 2013 3:14pm
Quoting fxtyrant
you are right... regarding QE the stop of operation is mentioned to be mid 2013, but speculators are already moving to buy up the Dollar as this deadline seem more and more firm as the US economy is chucking out good economic data to literally say "We had enough money now.... gota to stop the printing press" but banks are always one step ahead my friend soooo yes stop of operation is mid 2013 but banks and smart money are already moving money around to buy up the dollar big time....
sure, but as far as i know, good news on US Data was met with dollar sell-off before... people were happy when Fed was printing for the economy and happy too with good statistics. The whole thing driving EURUSD up on the idea that it was good for the global economy. As far as i can see, if Fed hopes to stop printing it means US economy is doing well, so it would add up to the global outlook... and prop up EURUSD too......
  • #741,329
  • Jan 3, 2013 3:15pm Jan 3, 2013 3:15pm
Quoting Chicky
I think it is just trying to park itself near 1.3000 before NFP. Next week, we go from there. Where? I don't know yet. US economy gives me chill.

This may not be the right time to engage in this discussion, but I believe any currency that is dependent upon the economy and policies of only one country has little logic. Euro is a regional currency.
Chicky, That's why the EURUSD is the most interesting pair - its not equally match with USD ... lots of money were made betting for /against these illogical block ! I just wish it can last longer ... otherwise, we will get a pair in tight range and very wild swings ! ( Take USD and Yen ) for example ...
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #741,330
  • Jan 3, 2013 3:15pm Jan 3, 2013 3:15pm
Quoting Chicky
I think it is just trying to park itself near 1.3000 before NFP. Next week, we go from there. Where? I don't know yet. US economy gives me chill.

This may not be the right time to engage in this discussion, but I believe any currency that is dependent upon the economy and policies of only one country has little logic. Euro is a regional currency.
you are right.. Euro is indeed a regional currency, problem for euro is that each country can issue bonds of their own country, so in a sense... you have a union of people where the europeans are fighting against their own... kinda like United states in Civil War but in economic and political terms...
the diverse cultural aspect in Europe and the Dying population is the key factors that are leading to the collapse of this union.... US can still boast its Import of inspiration..... alot of chinese kids still want to go to US to study in beautiful Berkeley and shit... but not so much Chinese going to study in France... Get my drift?

Also US can basically print as much money as they want since they are still the holder of hte world reserve currency status....
China is the closes one but they dont even come close in terms of their economic transparency.... im in Hong Kong and even i dont see china becoming a reserve currency in the next 5 or so years....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #741,331
  • Jan 3, 2013 3:17pm Jan 3, 2013 3:17pm
Quoting HiddenGap
The fundamental reason behind it is the Smart Money is selling.
Really ? You can't even admit you are wrong .... You know , its a global conspiracy - someone of Illumanti's saw your analysis and decided to switch the market ! What have you done to them Professor Langdon ?!

BTW, go back to your long term Chart and find one Weekly shooting star with a leg up that didn't kill the trend ! And it coming after a major move on the left ...
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #741,332
  • Jan 3, 2013 3:21pm Jan 3, 2013 3:21pm
Quoting divak
sure, but as far as i know, good news on US Data was met with dollar sell-off before... people were happy when Fed was printing for the economy and happy too with good statistics. The whole thing driving EURUSD up on the idea that it was good for the global economy. As far as i can see, if Fed hopes to stop printing it means US economy is doing well, so it would add up to the global outlook... and prop up EURUSD too......
the problem is.... with equities rising 20% year to date of 2012 in US, foreign investors wants to go to US.... unfortunately they have been put off by the fac tthat the FED was printing money.... soooo in a sense they were uncertain about the us economy, and in terms of investment.... if FED stops printing, this will spark demand for dollar...
in fact if you look at FED and their QE schemes.....
since QE1 to QE3, the Dollar has actually been Devalued..... but yes i do see ur point that good us data used to meet with dollar sell-off and that happened in 2012....
but one thing i realized in 2012 is that... When GOOD news happen in US... actually what happened is yes EURUSD rose... but Gold Fell against the dollar... so really the dollar didnt sell off... it was the European investors converting their golds they previously hold, selling them back to the US currency and then using those USD to buy teh EURO on Good US news....
so really its gold that took a dump over 2012 on Good US news... Not the US Dollar....

you focused on the EURUSD rising thinking it was a Dollar sell off but what you didnt realize dollar didnt devalue on good US news.... its Gold that devalued... and ppl felt RISK ON..... theres no more need to keep gold... they dump gold on risk on back to USD then use USD to Buy EURO that gives you the EURUSD rally we had near end of 2012
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #741,333
  • Jan 3, 2013 3:24pm Jan 3, 2013 3:24pm
Quoting mercy seat
Okay ...

Lowest entry from my side been 1.30610 ...

Done 20h39 CET ...

Profitable adjustments will come into play when 1.30700 has been taken ...

Re-do arrays afterwards ...






;-|
And another one (bigger one) loaded @ 1.30490 ...

Done 22h17 CET

Profitable adjustments will come into play when 1.30625 has been taken ...






;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #741,334
  • Jan 3, 2013 3:27pm Jan 3, 2013 3:27pm
to keep things simple, why not look at eur/aud and aus/usd that is gaining ground from the losses previously, while they strengthen on eur/aud and aus/usd [AUD], eur also faded gains on cross pairs, stops are triggered to push more losses on eur's strength, if we look at technical aspects. As for indices and etc. all i can say is that the market now is not correlated as compared to the past due to whatever reason i don't know. Why not just look at eur/usd purely itself and trade a good trading plan with a nice rr.

My daily chart have an ema signal of price action and fibo as well, when 1.3157 was violated, keep things simple, if price open 1.3196 and shoot up to 1.3300 and close below 1.3196? isn't that a very very bearish sign? compared to a price going down to 1.3125 then going up to 1.3300 and close there, u get a good bullish body. Look at daily charts across board and identify when its important to have a good bear body and bearish candle before the down move starts. It appears most even on the smaller tf. and the upmove from 1.2880-1.2920, a daily green and it starts to overlapped 1.2953 back to 1.3125 and then shoot up.

trying to find reasons for a move, why not anticipate a move if it does happen, crack support or break resistance = high probability price will move there. i doubt majority will go with further sell stops below 1.3080s to fetch that move to 40/50s. if anyone planned a good rr, i think its feasible and one can exit with a nice 30/40 pips within an hour. compared to a range in 1.3100-1.3115 earlier, or around 90-15.

I also suggested a hedging earlier on sell 1.3117, and buy 1.3081/85/87 depend where one can hop in for a short term trade, and wait for which side to be violated and close the losing trade and trail and ride the winner. this way ur balance is likely to be green, unless u get false break on either side and get confused. one just need to plan his max risk pips he can afford to lose, and learn to trail his winning positions and exit and not be greedy, though its easier said then done, why not practise a few times on demo till one get confident of it.

i won't be bothered about what's going on in the market an trying to understand every moves, i think as a trader the main concern is to catch the possible trend and move out accordingly to plan, make the green pips banked in, though different traders have different style and managing Draw downs and etc, i prefer getting into high probability sets up then trying to counter a trend when breakout is identified.

i am off to bed, good night and good luck to all.
  • #741,335
  • Jan 3, 2013 3:31pm Jan 3, 2013 3:31pm
Quoting 5percent
to keep things simple, why not look at eur/aud and aus/usd that is gaining ground from the losses previously, while they strengthen on eur/aud and aus/usd [AUD], eur also faded gains on cross pairs, stops are triggered to push more losses on eur's strength, if we look at technical aspects. As for indices and etc. all i can say is that the market now is not correlated as compared to the past due to whatever reason i don't know. Why not just look at eur/usd purely itself and trade a good trading plan with a nice rr.

My daily chart have an ema signal of price action and fibo as well, when 1.3157 was violated, keep things simple, if price open 1.3196 and shoot up to 1.3300 and close below 1.3196? isn't that a very very bearish sign? compared to a price going down to 1.3125 then going up to 1.3300 and close there, u get a good bullish body. Look at daily charts across board and identify when its important to have a good bear body and bearish candle before the down move starts. It appears most even on the smaller tf. and the upmove from 1.2880-1.2920, a daily green and it starts to overlapped 1.2953 back to 1.3125 and then shoot up.

trying to find reasons for a move, why not anticipate a move if it does happen, crack support or break resistance = high probability price will move there. i doubt majority will go with further sell stops below 1.3080s to fetch that move to 40/50s. if anyone planned a good rr, i think its feasible and one can exit with a nice 30/40 pips within an hour. compared to a range in 1.3100-1.3115 earlier, or around 90-15.

I also suggested a hedging earlier on sell 1.3117, and buy 1.3081/85/87 depend where one can hop in for a short term trade, and wait for which side to be violated and close the losing trade and trail and ride the winner. this way ur balance is likely to be green, unless u get false break on either side and get confused. one just need to plan his max risk pips he can afford to lose, and learn to trail his winning positions and exit and not be greedy, though its easier said then done, why not practise a few times on demo till one get confident of it.

i won't be bothered about what's going on in the market an trying to understand every moves, i think as a trader the main concern is to catch the possible trend and move out accordingly to plan, make the green pips banked in, though different traders have different style and managing Draw downs and etc, i prefer getting into high probability sets up then trying to counter a trend when breakout is identified.

i am off to bed, good night and good luck to all.
Spoken like god himself!!!
i guess its fair to say ur bearish since the fakeout open at 1.33 and close at 1.3196 on tuesday ish?
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #741,336
  • Jan 3, 2013 3:32pm Jan 3, 2013 3:32pm
Quoting mercy seat
And another one (bigger one) loaded @ 1.30490 ...

Done 22h17 CET

Profitable adjustments will come into play when 1.30625 has been taken ...






;-|
STOP ?
MMMYYYKKK
  • #741,337
  • Jan 3, 2013 3:36pm Jan 3, 2013 3:36pm
level 1,3320-1,3330 resist. and went to the south. TP: 1) 1.2880 2) 1.2700 important level 3) 1.2150 key level.
  • #741,338
  • Jan 3, 2013 3:37pm Jan 3, 2013 3:37pm
Quoting Vachus
Really ? You can't even admit you are wrong .... You know , its a global conspiracy - someone of Illumanti's saw your analysis and decided to switch the market ! What have you done to them Professor Langdon...
Not sure where this is coming from. I can certainly admit when I am wrong.

The last thing I posted was that the day after Christmas would be an up day (close higher than the day before) and it was.

Prior to that the only thing I said had to do with FX wolf and I think I have been proven correct here too.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #741,339
  • Jan 3, 2013 3:37pm Jan 3, 2013 3:37pm
Gonna also try long @ 30487,with 15 pip stop, if i get it
  • #741,340
  • Jan 3, 2013 3:40pm Jan 3, 2013 3:40pm
Quoting myk
STOP ?
No stop at this stage ...

But for those who need them stops I would take them into consideration somewhat below 1.2980 zone ...





;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
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