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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #64,441
  • Jan 2, 2013 4:50am Jan 2, 2013 4:50am
Quoting PipTrapper
Somebody please remind me why I am sitting at my terminal rather than out on a nice long stress reducing hike along the cliffs
Check the price action/liquidity of today .vs. the weather outside.

It is raining where I live so I am indoors, if it was sunny I woulnd't be because every trade I have made today has given me a crap ECN entry up to 5 pips away because of poor liquidity and then the trade just sits consolidating instead of moving, then they start to go against me. Frustrating
  • #64,442
  • Jan 2, 2013 4:57am Jan 2, 2013 4:57am
Quoting PipTrapper
Somebody please remind me why I am sitting at my terminal rather than out on a nice long stress reducing hike along the cliffs

http://www.alghero-turismo.it/_m/f/02_2010119_36.jpg
money, obviously!
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #64,443
  • Jan 2, 2013 4:59am Jan 2, 2013 4:59am
and in response to those talking about the bill being tax only, the original idea was that they would address the tax issues that turn over as of 1/1/13 now (for the supposed advantage of the american working class) then go back to address spending cuts later. we shall see. pre-open open interest points to a gap up. 1 min til open of globex

edit: SIGNIFICANT gap up. 18 handles. risk on
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #64,444
  • Jan 2, 2013 5:03am Jan 2, 2013 5:03am
today might be the day to close your eyes and get long all risk assets (at your own risk)

the only problem is that GOP dissent on the bill may be a problem for a lasting rally. the spending will come back to haunt us. we are only 22 handles from ALL TIME s&p highs
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #64,445
  • Jan 2, 2013 5:15am Jan 2, 2013 5:15am
Quoting redteamgo
and in response to those talking about the bill being tax only, the original idea was that they would address the tax issues that turn over as of 1/1/13 now (for the supposed advantage of the american working class) then go back to address spending cuts later. we shall see. pre-open open interest points to a gap up. 1 min til open of globex

edit: SIGNIFICANT gap up. 18 handles. risk on
I think most of the action has already been priced in.

Typically (not always) when a Gap UP occurs it is bearish, not bullish. The Fiscal Cliff resolution has already been priced in in my opinion. But I could be wrong...

Hope you enjoyed your holidays Red!
  • #64,446
  • Edited 5:29am Jan 2, 2013 5:17am | Edited 5:29am
Quoting 100PipsADay
I think most of the action has already been priced in.

Typically (not always) when a Gap UP occurs it is bearish, not bullish. The Fiscal Cliff resolution has already been priced in in my opinion. But I could be wrong...

Hope you enjoyed your holidays Red!
it will retest the gap for sure once people circle back to spending cut bills. that is inevitable. obviously i could be wrong. but i dont think its done yet; there is likely big money to be made on longs today. futures markets tend to grind directionally leading up to the cash open leading up to either support of the daily trend or a reversal (or sideways).

edit: dont forget that Q1, particularly January, is a bullish time of year


and thank you, i had a great couple of days. hope you did too.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #64,447
  • Jan 2, 2013 5:47am Jan 2, 2013 5:47am
Quoting Alorente
Because you love it... I know, it doesn´t make sense, but it´s in your blood...
Quoting halkins
It's simple....
Because there's no internet connection on the cliffs
--
You're both right

http://www.winnersedgetrading.com/wp...ed_forex_1.png
http://cdn1.ltttmstatic.com/wp-conte...ict_varvel.gif
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,448
  • Jan 2, 2013 5:55am Jan 2, 2013 5:55am
Good Morning Guys…
Happy New Year to everybody…
I think US open may bring a fresh flock on new bulls on the floor.
Therefore today I am “gently” bullish on EURUSD.
I think today we can break existing triangle formation through the ceiling and fly high into the 1.33500-1.33800 zone.
Alternatively some bears may want to retest lower boundaries of triangle but I it is less likely scenario for me, and could rather be a good opportunity for more buying…
US indices charts looking very interesting, SP500 etc etc... with huge gap on opening.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd1.gif Size: 24 KB
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #64,449
  • Jan 2, 2013 6:26am Jan 2, 2013 6:26am
Quoting PipTrapper
http://www.winnersedgetrading.com/wp...ed_forex_1.png
[/IMG]
looks like she is well versed in that position



i just pulled up my quote board. where is Ken? who else is still long EY? *&(#$*(&#$&* .........
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #64,450
  • Jan 2, 2013 6:51am Jan 2, 2013 6:51am
Chart Of The Day: Europe's Resolution To Unpaid Bills? Ignore Them

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...id%20Bills.jpg

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...ls-ignore-them
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,451
  • Jan 2, 2013 7:26am Jan 2, 2013 7:26am
Good Morning Folks

I just read the following article and this section caught my interest. Does anyone here have an opinion on the following;

It will be interesting to see if the BOJ follows through with decisive action to reduce the Yen's purchasing power. The only action that would do the trick is to materially increase the rate of growth in the Yen supply. As shown below, Japan's year-over-year money-supply growth rate is presently near its 20-year average of 2%.

http://www.speculative-investor.com/...nMS_281212.gif

The financial markets are assuming that the BOJ will cave in to the political pressure, but it's important to understand that nothing has actually happened yet. The Yen's decline to date has been based solely on anticipation of future actions that may or may not happen. Moreover, even if the BOJ inflates the Yen supply enough to bring about a sustained 2% per year reduction in the Yen's purchasing power it will still be inflating at a much slower pace than the Fed, resulting in the Yen remaining a relatively strong currency on a long-term basis.

Unfortunately, it will be at least a few months before we'll be able to tell, from the money-supply data, whether or not the BOJ is taking the actions desired by Japan's economically illiterate PM.

Almost regardless of what the BOJ does over the next couple of months, the Yen could soon begin to rebound due to the extent to which it is now extended to the downside. Speculators have piled into Yen short positions, surveys show that Yen sentiment is the most negative it has been in many years, and momentum indicators are at 'oversold' extremes on both daily and weekly bases. That's why we shifted about 10% of our cash reserve into Yen late last week.

On to a different topic, we often find that what we expect to happen in the markets actually does happen, but that it happens much later than we originally expected. There are many examples, the one that we'll focus on now being an upward revaluation of the Hong Kong Dollar (HK$) relative to the US$.

High and rising prices for goods, services and real estate are major problems in Hong Kong. The root cause of this "price inflation" problem is the peg to the US$, which forces Hong Kong's monetary authority to follow the Fed's monetary policies. The Fed's monetary policies ARE going to cause a major "price inflation" problem in the US. No ifs, buts or maybes. Very few people can see this problem coming in the US because the moribund economy and the private-sector de-leveraging have temporarily and partially counteracted the purchasing-power-related effect of the monetary inflation, but in Hong Kong the purchasing-power-related effect of the monetary inflation is blatant and has been so for years. That's why we've been anticipating a change in the HK$-US$ peg for years.

http://www.speculative-investor.com/...z3f311212.html
  • #64,452
  • Jan 2, 2013 7:33am Jan 2, 2013 7:33am
http://sphotos-c.ak.fbcdn.net/hphoto...36445805_n.jpg
  • #64,453
  • Jan 2, 2013 8:09am Jan 2, 2013 8:09am
Quoting halkins
It's simple....
Because there's no internet connection on the cliffs
--

Near the cliffs you'll find a why-fly connection... of suicidal thoughts.. Haha
  • #64,454
  • Jan 2, 2013 8:15am Jan 2, 2013 8:15am
Quoting PipTrapper
You're both right

http://www.winnersedgetrading.com/wp...ed_forex_1.png
http://cdn1.ltttmstatic.com/wp-conte...ict_varvel.gif
I am like this now, but the computer is over my legs. Too much food
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #64,455
  • Jan 2, 2013 8:20am Jan 2, 2013 8:20am
my view now, one more high eu, ey and sp to finish this bull cycle... Maybe friday we get the move...
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #64,456
  • Jan 2, 2013 8:35am Jan 2, 2013 8:35am
Quoting Luis Carlos
my view now, one more high eu, ey and sp to finish this bull cycle... Maybe friday we get the move...
do you have a chart to go with that. I would love to see your counts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,457
  • Jan 2, 2013 8:35am Jan 2, 2013 8:35am
Quoting redteamgo
looks like she is well versed in that position



i just pulled up my quote board. where is Ken? who else is still long EY? *&(#$*(&#$&* .........

Dunno what to tell ya Oct, Nov, Dec
  • #64,458
  • Jan 2, 2013 9:17am Jan 2, 2013 9:17am
Dollar is being dumped so as U/CAD long
  • #64,459
  • Jan 2, 2013 9:40am Jan 2, 2013 9:40am
Quoting Ken A
Dollar is being dumped so as U/CAD long
It would be surprising if this suddenly turned around after such a sharp decline. PA looks very comfortable where it is now, in fact easing it's way to lower 98's and perhaps awaiting another daily candle to head south to 0.9740ish.. anybody see this hitting rock bottom @ 96ish?
  • #64,460
  • Jan 2, 2013 9:52am Jan 2, 2013 9:52am
Quoting D2tz
It would be surprising if this suddenly turned around after such a sharp decline. PA looks very comfortable where it is now, in fact easing it's way to lower 98's and perhaps awaiting another daily candle to head south to 0.9740ish.. anybody see this hitting rock bottom @ 96ish?
96ish is a bit too far down, but I definitely see the possibility of testing 9740/60 area if the USD keeps getting bashed.

Keep in mind though that the fall in the USD has been very slight compared to the rally in equity markets. The last time I saw this kind of action was just before 31st July 2011

ADD: E/U looking a bit heavy
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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