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  • #740,321
  • Jan 1, 2013 9:15pm Jan 1, 2013 9:15pm
Quoting the redlion
no it should not

look at the federal funds rate

why on earth would you be holding, treasuries or US paper with .25% at most.

would you rather park that money into AUD 3% or equities which returned 11% on investment.

how about commodities?

USD is a bit different than other currencies, in the effect that it is the reserve currency of the world, and assets flowing out of the USD will need to FLOW INTO other asset classes.
I see, I find it more and more difficult to trade news related to the US with the Eur/Usd pair.

Were you long, or preparing to go long on EUr/Usd if the deal went well ??
I will become the World's best at my own style
  • #740,322
  • Jan 1, 2013 9:15pm Jan 1, 2013 9:15pm
Quoting the redlion
the markets for the most part are predictive..........always looking ahead

the fiscal cliff is done, signed, and will be averted (that is what the markets are predicting)

another thing they might be predicting is the search for yield....stocks higher, euro will probably continue to gain in the short to mid term
There's no guarantee this will pass the house. If it doesn't get ready for a huge sell off
  • #740,323
  • Jan 1, 2013 9:15pm Jan 1, 2013 9:15pm
every short spike down from 6350 my broker increases the spread from 2.5 to 10
They know trapped shorts looking good number to bail out...
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #740,324
  • Jan 1, 2013 9:20pm Jan 1, 2013 9:20pm
Quoting auxesis
There's no guarantee this will pass the house. If it doesn't get ready for a huge sell off
Very true.

House Approval: The deal needs to be approved by the House, where Republicans are in control. It’s hard to believe that Republicans in the House will reject or amend a deal made in the Senate, but anything is possible. It’s important to remember that a new House will begin working on Wednesday. The newly elected House has a smaller Republican majority. Could the outgoing House still change the course of the deal?

**Latest estimate on the House vote is in the 10:30 - 10:45pm ET range**
  • #740,325
  • Jan 1, 2013 9:20pm Jan 1, 2013 9:20pm
Quoting auxesis
There's no guarantee this will pass the house. If it doesn't get ready for a huge sell off
It has been going on after elections back in Nov 2012. If it doesn't pass, just means another pump and dump for huge profit by selling off. But I won't take my chances.
  • #740,326
  • Jan 1, 2013 9:21pm Jan 1, 2013 9:21pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
LOL there was nothing technical about this move whatsoever... This is completely news driven market, I showed you my technical setup about 2 weeks ago for multiple currency pairs. Today's move is news driven.

Anyways, hope you also have a profitable 2013.
Technicals are fu**ed up right now. That's what BB want. But if you follow the path of smart money its easier. With VSA (volume spread analysis) you can catch some of their foot prints. I wanted to tell you that pinbar at top on GU - weekly TF it self doesnt garantee you bear after closing it. In smaller TF-s strength was seen. The volume of up and down bars is all it counts if the price is ranging between S/R in range of 100 pips. Accumulation or distribution?
No ofence mate. I respect you and think you have good analysis. Of course technicals usually give up when "important" news come out.
  • #740,327
  • Jan 1, 2013 9:22pm Jan 1, 2013 9:22pm
I don't want to think my politicians are that stupid ...............but they have surprised me numerous times.

so anything is possible.

however from the bill that has been presented seems reasonable enough.... and it would avert an economic contraction.

the sensible thing would be to pass it
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #740,328
  • Jan 1, 2013 9:23pm Jan 1, 2013 9:23pm
Quoting sLOVEnia
Technicals are fu**ed up right now. That's what BB want. But if you follow the path of smart money its easier. With VSA (volume spread analysis) you can catch some of their foot prints. I wanted to tell you that pinbar at top on GU - weekly TF it self doesnt garantee you bear after closing it. In smaller TF-s strnegth was seen. The volume of up and down bars is all it counts if the price is ranging between S/R in range of 100 pips. Accumulation or distribution?
No ofence mate. I respect you and think you have good analysis. Of course technicals...
I definitely agree that technicals are fu**ed up right now! LOL

No offense taken sLOVEnia. I actually started looking into volume during the past few weeks, never really used it for trading before. Maybe it will help me to follow the "Big Money" in the near future...
  • #740,329
  • Jan 1, 2013 9:24pm Jan 1, 2013 9:24pm
Quoting johncen
bear seems still in bed in the first trading day of the year...
must be frozen in the northern hemisphere for bear to do that....

one hour debate begins now in the house...let see what the result will be...

bro seems not a good day for bear so far...swissy set new low...
yep so far anyway, bears are figthing back, but pretty hard when you figthing opium driven market, yen showing plenty influence aswell, makes it pretty much gun slinging territory, I prefering to stick with cable for now, until dust has settled
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #740,330
  • Jan 1, 2013 9:24pm Jan 1, 2013 9:24pm
Quoting Davit
every short spike down from 6350 my broker increases the spread from 2.5 to 10
They know trapped shorts looking good number to bail out...
gu has been playing games since fri.. Thry increase the spread so noone can get in then they let it go when retailers are on tr wrong side... Banks will never lose unless there is a bomb or somethig.
  • #740,331
  • Jan 1, 2013 9:29pm Jan 1, 2013 9:29pm
Quoting the redlion
I don't want to think my politicians are that stupid ...............but they have surprised me numerous times.

so anything is possible.

however from the bill that has been presented seems reasonable enough.... and it would avert an economic contraction.

the sensible thing would be to pass it
Economic contraction is enviable, to fix the problems it will hurt............ the bill is another can kicker and doesn't address the issues other than politicized taxation.

If the members would stand firm to their convictions they would let it go over the cliff and then fix the problem, sequestration is only the start.
  • #740,332
  • Edited 9:58pm Jan 1, 2013 9:36pm | Edited 9:58pm
Quoting yelena
nah. LONG is the correct position for the fiscal cliff. this is the DD i was referring to (if one is already in a long). if correct, the big boys and girls are already positioning "at a better price." from here on, we will range but deceive people as if it is bearish... 3170 looks yummy to go long. treating fiscal cliff like NFP or interest rate. 300 pippers for EU today most likely. hello 3393 !! (today's R4).. patiently waiting. no falling knife today. more like fireworks ..... but it's just me.
Quoting yelena
when in doubt, always use a secondary pair. if you're regular exposure is 1%, then 0.5% to eu, and the other to... ej, maybe. em wating for ej to hit 114.50 then out. protected at 113.90, still a free trade.
on ej closed @115.83. didn't have the guts to reposition again on eu. officially patient
  • #740,333
  • Jan 1, 2013 9:36pm Jan 1, 2013 9:36pm
for what its worth - test vote passed with overwhelming majority 408-10


http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/17851782.cms
  • #740,334
  • Jan 1, 2013 9:37pm Jan 1, 2013 9:37pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
yep so far anyway, bears are figthing back, but pretty hard when you figthing opium driven market, yen showing plenty influence aswell, makes it pretty much gun slinging territory, I prefering to stick with cable for now, until dust has settled
yes agree bear trying to fight back..but more like charging for another leg up...
hmmmm..

unless we saw some unexpected result in the next hour...otherwise seems we may go higher...
or...buy rumors sell fact?
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #740,335
  • Jan 1, 2013 9:39pm Jan 1, 2013 9:39pm
Quoting Ken A
I won't short unless convincingly close below 1.3172. PA has been consolidating above this for days. Short opportunities above 1.3172 are retrace not a reversal IMHO.
I wouldn't even start shorting until under 1.31384. That's going to be our recent break re-test I believe.
  • #740,336
  • Jan 1, 2013 9:45pm Jan 1, 2013 9:45pm
basically the cliff will drain liquidity from the system via taxation and cutting projected spending.

with the environment that we have right now with slow growth 1.5% YoY, and the employment 7.7% velocity of money actually falling.
I fail to see how going over the cliff is a good thing.

raising taxes on people will reduce the capacity to spend ....we already have weak aggregate demand.
with spending cuts there will be less money going into the system which will cause monetary contraction......again this is known to cause deflation and depress economic activity.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #740,337
  • Jan 1, 2013 9:46pm Jan 1, 2013 9:46pm
Quoting Kanzler
I wouldn't even start shorting until under 1.31384. That's going to be our recent break re-test I believe.
Yeah I won't bother to chase tops or bottoms. There're many ways to make up the missing pips even to make 10x more when continuation or reversal is confirmed.
  • #740,338
  • Jan 1, 2013 9:46pm Jan 1, 2013 9:46pm
US House begins voting on fiscal cliff. Voting to last 15mins.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #740,339
  • Jan 1, 2013 9:47pm Jan 1, 2013 9:47pm
Quoting johncen
US House begins voting on fiscal cliff. Voting to last 15mins.
currently 118 yes to 63 no with 251 left to vote
  • #740,340
  • Jan 1, 2013 9:51pm Jan 1, 2013 9:51pm
Quoting 2046
currently 118 yes to 63 no with 251 left to vote
it just can go either way...
hmmmmmmmmm Boenuer voted yes....

150 yay / 89 nay so far
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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