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  • #740,181
  • Jan 1, 2013 4:09am Jan 1, 2013 4:09am
a) Passage is not assured in the House,
b) This is a ''light'' agreement,

Unfortunately, not so sure market will react so strong long on eur/usd.

What about your vision folks?
Don't give up
  • #740,182
  • Jan 1, 2013 4:13am Jan 1, 2013 4:13am
Quoting geomink
a) Passage is not assured in the House,
b) This is a ''light'' agreement,

Unfortunately, not so sure market will react so strong long on eur/usd.

What about your vision folks?

I'm bullish USD regardless of the outcome for at least the first quarter of 2013.

So bearish EUR, GBP, AUD, and NZD against the greenback.
  • #740,183
  • Jan 1, 2013 4:17am Jan 1, 2013 4:17am
[quote=100PipsADay;6331075]I'm bullish USD regardless of the outcome for at least the first quarter of 2013.

So bearish EUR, GBP, AUD, and NZD against the greenback

what do you see for EURUSD target downside and why you r bullish on USD vs all currencies?
  • #740,184
  • Jan 1, 2013 4:18am Jan 1, 2013 4:18am
i ve got eurusd short, sl 1.3240...hope down
  • #740,185
  • Edited 4:49am Jan 1, 2013 4:39am | Edited 4:49am
Nothing has changed regarding the fiscal cliff deal...it's just treating a heart attack with a band-aid.

Why?

1). The budget deficit remains totally out of control. The Fed is starting to fire short term blanks at the problem, which the government is trying to ignore like the "elefant in the room".

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2). 155 Million americans will be paying yearly about 2% ($2000 p/ household) more taxes in 2013 as in 2012.

3). The average savings p/ household is about $5100 p/year, and in the last 6 months costs of energy have risen 20%, staples such as wheat and corn upwards of 6% and the milk spot price has gone from $18 to $24 between June and the end of November.

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The combination of points 2 & 3 are alarming. About 40% of the american population, are having their savings devoured by inflation, and to top it off taxes are going to be eating up an increasingly large chunk of their take home pay.

I see no way that we're going to avoid a US recession in 2013, which makes me want to believe that the EU has a small "head start" in bringing their finances in order, at least in comparison to the political disfunction of the US. This makes me also want to believe a ECB rate hike will come before the fed follows suit.

All this plus the weekly and monthly EUR/USD technicals which everybody here have seen at least a zillion times, makes me want to assume for the first time a mid term bias, which is EUR bullish. I'm looking for a break of the 1.37 by August 2013.

Not because of the EUR strength alone, but give me 1 good reason to buy the dollar.
  • #740,186
  • Jan 1, 2013 4:50am Jan 1, 2013 4:50am
Quoting Cuso
Nothing has changed regarding the fiscal cliff deal...it's just treating a heart attack with a band-aid.

Why?

1). The budget deficit remains totally out of control. The Fed is starting to fire short term blanks at the problem, which the government is trying to ignore like the "elefant in the room".

Attachment

2). 155 Million americans will be paying yearly about 2% ($2000 p/ household) more taxes in 2013 as in 2012.

3). The average savings p/ household is about $5100 p/year, and in the last 6 months costs of energy...

Here are 9 reasons...


9 Reasons Why the Dollar Still Looks Like a Great Long-Term Bet
by Jack Crooks

Now that the European Central Bank has “saved” the euro and our Federal Reserve has declared easy money as far as the eye can see, isn’t the dollar going to get killed?

Well, on the surface that makes sense. But I think those concerns are short-term impacts. I still believe the dollar has entered a multi-year bull market, which began back in March 2008, when the U.S. dollar index bottomed.Now that the European Central Bank has "saved" the euro and our Federal Reserve has declared easy money as far as the eye can see, isn't the dollar going to get killed?

Here are nine themes I see playing out that would ensure a bull market for the dollar:

Theme #1—Euro no longer a viable challenger against the dollar

The euro is not saved yet, by any means. I expect another crisis to rear its ugly head within the next six months or sooner. But even assuming the euro is "saved," I would expect at least a decade of deflation and slow growth. As a result, the euro will fall of its own weight relative to the dollar and other major world currencies.

Theme #2 — Most of the monetary policy impact is behind us

Each of the Fed's new programs has been increasingly less effective in helping the real economy. Sooner or later the market will clear itself. And when it does the Fed will quickly take back all those excess reserves, which means U.S. dollar supply will fall. Therefore, fewer dollars will be out there as demand grows with recovery.

Theme #3 — China's reserves are falling, and hot money is fleeing!

I expect this trend to continue as China's economic growth slips further. This again goes to the point of a declining global supply of dollars, which will be good for the dollar's price.

Theme #4 — U.S. real assets look cheap

In a world increasingly looking for good long-term investment ideas, U.S. real assets, including real estate and natural resources, look very competitive. This should lead to strong foreign direct investment into the United States. Indeed, good for the dollar.

Theme #5 — The ramp up in U.S. domestic energy production helps the buck

There are two ways this is bullish for the dollar: 1) Falling oil imports should help cut our trade deficit; and 2) It leads to more international investment into the U.S. by investors wanting to position accordingly.

Theme #6 — Global rebalancing taking place in China and Germany

As the global backdrop for export dependent countries changes, the top exporters — China and Germany — will have to increase domestic demand in order to grow. This will likely help U.S. exports and be the real beginning of the long awaited global rebalancing. It will be dollar positive for sure!

Theme #7 — Rising pool of U.S. domestic savings

The credit crisis has triggered a palpable shift in U.S. consumer savings/consumption patterns. I expect this to be secular in nature. As the U.S. pool of savings for domestic corporations increases, the dependence on international funding should fall. If the U.S. current account deficit improves dramatically, the dollar will benefit.

Theme #8 — Falling commodity prices

As China decelerates, commodity prices should fall dramatically. This doesn't mean all commodities nor does it mean the secular rally is over. But over the next 1-2 years, this will put pressure on emerging markets and will likely mean U.S. investors keep more of their money onshore for local (U.S.) investment opportunities. That means more dollars staying home instead of being exchanged into other currencies.

Theme #9 — $2 TRILLION in U.S. corporate cash on the sidelines

Once this mountain of cash is redeployed to fund technologies where U.S. companies have a commanding lead, such as in nanotechnology and 3-D printing, it could virtually trigger a U.S. renaissance and would be a magnet for foreign direct investments. That would be very dollar bullish.

Needless to say the ideas I've listed above have implications for asset markets that go way beyond the U.S. dollar. Over the next several weeks I will pick up on each of these themes in greater detail to show you why I believe it's way too soon to write off the dollar or make a long-term bet on the decline in America.
  • #740,187
  • Jan 1, 2013 4:54am Jan 1, 2013 4:54am
Quoting Cuso
a mid term bias, which is EUR bullish
what do you think about market re-open eur/usd on tomorrow?
Don't give up
  • #740,188
  • Jan 1, 2013 4:56am Jan 1, 2013 4:56am
[quote=samooh;6331079]
Quoting 100PipsADay
I'm bullish USD regardless of the outcome for at least the first quarter of 2013.

So bearish EUR, GBP, AUD, and NZD against the greenback

what do you see for EURUSD target downside and why you r bullish on USD vs all currencies?
I see 1.18 - 1.20 as solid support on weekly/monthly. At that time (assuming we go down) I will watch Price Action and more than likely look to go long. Only time will tell.

Not giving any specific time frames but probably by the end of the first quarter of 2013...

As to why I am bullish on USD, please reference my previous post. Also, NZD, AUD, and GBP have all shown bearish PA at major resistance on weekly charts. We'll have to see how this week plays out.
  • #740,189
  • Jan 1, 2013 5:20am Jan 1, 2013 5:20am
Quoting Miraculous
possibly GAP is gonna be wide....

So you are promoting in Interactive Trading.

You are abandoning the 110% Winning Strategy?

And now in Commercial Forum with this No words thread,let results speak.....?
  • #740,190
  • Edited 5:55am Jan 1, 2013 5:27am | Edited 5:55am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Here are 9 reasons...


9 Reasons Why the Dollar Still Looks Like a Great Long-Term Bet
by Jack Crooks

Now that the European Central Bank has “saved” the euro and our Federal Reserve has declared easy money as far as the eye can see, isn’t the dollar going to get killed?
Thanks for that. Please note that I posted a "Mid-Term" goal till August of 2013. Crook's article is based on long term concepts and structures which will take years to implement, and/or political policy changes which are not possible at this time.

If you want, just ask the people at Black Swan to answer these 2 simple questions:

1). Why has the EUR just not collapsed below say 1.2000?
2). How much $85 a barrel Oil does the US have?

I happen to have another opinon than Jack Crooks, but I hope everybody listens to him.
  • #740,191
  • Jan 1, 2013 5:35am Jan 1, 2013 5:35am
Quoting Cuso
Thanks for that. Please note that I posted a "Mid-Term" goal till August of 2013. Crook's article is based on long term concepts and structures which will take years to implement, and/or political policy changes which are not possible at this time.

If you want, just ask the people at Black Swan to answer these 2 simple questions:

1). Why has the EUR just not collapsed below say 1.2000?
2). How much $85 a barrel Oil does the US have?

I happen to have another opinon than Jack Crook, but I hope everybody listens to him.
I understand what you're saying, it's a good thing people have different opinions and perspectives as that is what makes the market.

Personally I decided to get short on AUD/USD and NZD/USD a little over a week ago due to the 12/19 weekly Bearish Engulfing bar up at weekly resistance (NZD) and weekly TL for AUD. GBP also showed a weekly pin bar at weekly resistance. Classic PASR for AUD, NZD, and GBP. As for EUR/USD I am not short at the moment but have made some decent money longing EUR/AUD during the past month.

Still waiting for a good setup on EUR/USD, hopefully this week will give some direction. Hope you have a profitable 2013 Cuso!
  • #740,192
  • Jan 1, 2013 6:06am Jan 1, 2013 6:06am
Quoting 100PipsADay
I understand what you're saying, it's a good thing people have different opinions and perspectives as that is what makes the market.

Personally I decided to get short on AUD/USD and NZD/USD a little over a week ago due to the 12/19 weekly Bearish Engulfing bar up at weekly resistance (NZD) and weekly TL for AUD. GBP also showed a weekly pin bar at weekly resistance. Classic PASR for AUD, NZD, and GBP. As for EUR/USD I am not short at the moment but have made some decent money longing EUR/AUD during the past month.

Still waiting...
Well thank you, and many greens to you.
  • #740,193
  • Jan 1, 2013 6:34am Jan 1, 2013 6:34am
Quoting 100PipsADay

I see 1.18 - 1.20 as solid support on weekly/monthly. At that time (assuming we go down) I will watch Price Action and more than likely look to go long. Only time will tell.

Not giving any specific time frames but probably by the end of the first quarter of 2013...

As to why I am bullish on USD, please reference my previous post. Also, NZD, AUD, and GBP have all shown bearish PA at major resistance on weekly charts. We'll have to see how this week plays out.
This completely inaccurate and these are my reasons:

1- On the monthly chart, the Monthly trend range is been repeatedly confirming that Price is trending up. ( 5 Consecutive Bullish Candles, with the last open closing above the high of two months.) In addition to that, the Monthly candle that printed lower - price was bought up near the open of previous candle ( November 2012).

2- Every time for the last 5 years - price went to 1.18 and was bought, it never returned back to it. Which re-confirm the range on higher time frame.

3- On the weekly chart , Euro has so far maintained its gaining from fundamental changes. Is either creating a new micro range or breaking for it and re-entering the range between 1.35X-1.295X. The weekly suggests either hesitation to above 1.32 or trend exhaustion ( 1.26X to 1.33X ) Which could be temporarily ignored if something happened on fundamental level to wear off this hesitation and you get panic buying. However, since both Bulls would like better price and bearish would like to take their long waited campaign. I still by the opinion, that the next 200-300 pips is Down not up.

4- The daily is bit neutral, slightly bearish- its a mere congestion that can go either way. 1.32450 was a line in the sand to write the full story ( 50 FIB between 1.33050 / 1.238X ) and so far Price is suffering to stay above it and managed to close one day above it - and price pulled back.

So, i really can't find any reason to target 1.18 /1.20 for a bearish campaign - unless , Greece is bankrupt , a giant alligator attacking USA or Merkel turn out to be a guy


On a fundamental level : Favors the EURO at least for the next 6 months - expected recovery, Greece's GDP slight Green numbers , Spain Bailout , Yen's inflating. However, since all this start a bit early - January will be a range month , no clear direction and no reason for a break out. Which render EURUSD kind of not the hot deal at the moment. I personally would keep an eye on it , but i will be waiting for a dip buying on EURJPY for a swing - and scalp EURUSD & and the major pairs.
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"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #740,194
  • Jan 1, 2013 6:50am Jan 1, 2013 6:50am
Quoting Vachus
This completely inaccurate and these are my reasons:

1- On the monthly chart, the Monthly trend range is been repeatedly confirming that Price is trending up. ( 5 Consecutive Bullish Candles, with the last open closing above the high of two months.) In addition to that, the Monthly candle that printed lower - price was bought up near the open of previous candle ( November 2012).

2- Every time for the last 5 years - price went to 1.18 and was bought, it never returned back to it. Which re-confirm the range on higher time frame.

3- On the...

Your monthly chart also proves that EUR/USD has been making lower highs on the monthly time frame for the past 4 years straight. This tells me we have already started a long term down trend for EUR/USD.

250 EMA is acting as Resistance on the weekly charts (just like it should) which can be seen from my 2nd chart. Also, the 100 EMA has recently crossed over the 250 EMA on the weekly chart giving even more confirmation of a downtrend from a weekly perspective.

IF price can close above 1.335 on a weekly basis I would turn bullish for the short to mid-term. Otherwise, I remain bearish on EUR/USD for the time being. 12/19 weekly candle was a pin bar signaling a possible reversal in trend as far as weekly goes due to the fact that it was after a recent uptrend.

It may go higher but EUR/USD is definitely in a down trend when looking at the monthly charts. Where do you see it topping out at this time around?

Also, I wouldn't say my analysis is "completely inaccurate" as there is no real way of knowing exactly which way the market is headed. I could say the same about your analysis, different opinions and perspectives. Like I said earlier, that is what makes the market.
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  • #740,195
  • Jan 1, 2013 7:23am Jan 1, 2013 7:23am
Quoting Ken A
So you are promoting in Interactive Trading.

You are abandoning the 110% Winning Strategy?

And now in Commercial Forum with this No words thread,let results speak.....?

Be careful with this signal service as the thread starter has hidden the trade explorer from bad trades ($100 capital). Take good care of your MONEY.


One simple logic:

If he/she/they really can trade with 110% winning strategy there's no need to use your money to trade. With a 110% winning strategy can grow $100,000 into $ billions in a very short period of time. You think they will grow the money for you?
  • #740,196
  • Jan 1, 2013 7:52am Jan 1, 2013 7:52am
Quoting ec_creep
i'd be looking at 3185 and 3206. though i'd prefer to see 3158 first
with this gap, scratched that one. aiming 3312, if 3172 holds.
  • #740,197
  • Jan 1, 2013 8:13am Jan 1, 2013 8:13am
Quoting Cuso
Thanks for that. Please note that I posted a "Mid-Term" goal till August of 2013. Crook's article is based on long term concepts and structures which will take years to implement, and/or political policy changes which are not possible at this time.

If you want, just ask the people at Black Swan to answer these 2 simple questions:

1). Why has the EUR just not collapsed below say 1.2000?
2). How much $85 a barrel Oil does the US have?

I happen to have another opinon than Jack Crooks, but I hope everybody listens to him.
support level was at 1.2040.
EUR/USD sell TP: 1) 1,2860, 2) 1,2700, 3) 1,2150 SL: 1,3330-1,3350
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  • #740,198
  • Jan 1, 2013 8:18am Jan 1, 2013 8:18am
Quote
Your monthly chart also proves that EUR/USD has been making lower highs on the monthly time frame for the past 4 years straight. This tells me we have already started a long term down trend for EUR/USD.

So , short from a lower high on a monthly chart - 1.40 / 1.45 / 1.50 - not from 1.32 to target 5 years bottom. ( This where 1.18 /1.20 doesn't make sense at all ). But 1.33 in the grand scheme could turn out to be the bottom. It make sense that price moves back to bottom bought when it has reach a lower H or a HH !

Quote
IF price can close above 1.335 on a weekly basis I would turn bullish for the short to mid-term. Otherwise, I remain bearish on EUR/USD for the time being. 12/19 weekly candle was a pin bar signaling a possible reversal in trend as far as weekly goes due to the fact that it was after a recent uptrend.

btw you wait for price to close above 1.335 - which candle " Monthly, Weekly or daily " ? Because you don't need a close to reach a target , this is one. Two , if you wait for a close , pretty much you lost 80% of the move - as the front runner will be taking profit on upticks. So, good luck if you wait for the close - but R/R it doesn't work.

Quote
250 EMA is acting as Resistance on the weekly charts (just like it should) which can be seen from my 2nd chart. Also, the 100 EMA has recently crossed over the 250 EMA on the weekly chart giving even more confirmation of a downtrend from a weekly perspective
.

All moving averages tell the story of the past not the present, and hard to take a clear direction from them - unless the move is finish. But , MA 200 on Monthly is either flat or slightly rising up for the last four years. On weekly, price broke it in Sep 2011 and rose up in July 2012 and looks like its going after it (1.35X ), and Daily its flat at 1.27X. Which mean either a range is in place or indecision!

The 100 MA is ranging on the daily from July , on the weekly rising up and Monthly Slightly falling - which indicate a range / flatting.

Generally speaking, MA or EMA are kind of worhtless at the moment , but even that wouldn't support the case of 1.18 /1.20

Quote
It may go higher but EUR/USD is definitely in a down trend when looking at the monthly charts. Where do you see it topping out at this time around?

Where are you getting this precise words like definitely , and down trend from ? Nothing on the chart support the case of Down trend - it actually support reversal , nothing on fundemental level support that ( Europe is going into recovery mode , not doomsday ) So, this left you with only one thing and once only " That you are USD Biast ).

Quote
Also, I wouldn't say my analysis is "completely inaccurate" as there is no real way of knowing exactly which way the market is headed. I could say the same about your analysis, different opinions and perspectives. Like I said earlier, that is what makes the market.

Yes it can go anyway, but you need a major catastrophe for a currency to drop 1500 Pips in 60 days of trading - Even USD's fanatics Grxist best loved dancing music are tuning down. But, if price want to go higher it has to come down to collect buyers and when it goes higher , people like to take profit and tune trading down to have more time with their mistresses or hockers.

So, for now a EURUSD 1.35 / 1.25 make sense and when something fundemenal change the game = its breaks higher or lower.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #740,199
  • Jan 1, 2013 8:25am Jan 1, 2013 8:25am
Since, the fiscal bill has passed. Will EUR/USD rise or gap up really big tonight when the markets open?
  • #740,200
  • Jan 1, 2013 8:50am Jan 1, 2013 8:50am
Quoting cpleasant
Since, the fiscal bill has passed. Will EUR/USD rise or gap up really big tonight when the markets open?
cant say any thing actually....
PA trader...
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