EurAnalysis

Hi Silat… Thank you for nice words…
Silat, buddy, I think it’s more complex and I am afraid you missed my point.
What I said is it’s really hard to be a professional trader if you cannot dedicate all your time and energy for it.
I tried to work full time job and trade at the same time, but it didn’t work, as I missed many good opportunities.
Well, I know there are some traders saying they spend only half an hour a day for analyzing and they are still successful, but it didn’t work with me. They are usually looking for a setup on 4H and 1D time frames and take only few trades in a month.
But frankly, if I spend let’s say 8 hours in front of my screen, it’s only a 30-50minutes for daily analyzing, and aaaalllll the rest is nothing else then boring waiting. Waiting for good entries…
Please note that my “open position” is in fact a cluster of 3-20 smaller trades, sometimes hedging each other. I never ever open one big position. I use my own EA software, so within a second I can alter all my trades only by touching a single line on my chart. What I see on my chart is only a computer simulation of all daily trades determined only by single BE, SL and TP line for all my positions.
All the best to you...
-

I have to agree. I tried trading around class, and it was difficult because I could not manage my trades away from my desk, so I had to work around that. Also, Silat, you really cannot get enough analysis in my opinion. Knowledge is power and a lack of it is weakness. To avoid paralysis is to developing a way to interpret the data into meaningful chucks. It is more useful when it is broken down. I analyze data and charts 8 hrs a day and place maybe two well placed trades. I find it beneficial to analyze more and trade less.

Welcome Back .... I always enjoyed your posts. Great Trading during 2013.

I would watch the markets carefully because of the cliff deadline. Perceptions rule right or wrong. If they do something markets rally and Risk is on. EUR/USD should move up and if not then watch out below. Then Fitch downgrades and SAFE HAVEN money goes back to US Bonds.

It should be a fun year trading forex...

A Happy New Year Wish For You PipTrapper.

Along the lines of your comments I just read the summary of the year by Chuck Butler that came in my email just now. I have no direct link so I am posting it here to share with everyone.

Enjoy...

Special Sunday Pfennig
2012... The Year of the Emerging Markets


When our marketing gurus asked me to do a 2012 review, I wanted to focus on sports championships won in 2012. But after negotiations, they convinced me that I should stick to the markets, economies and Central Banks... All, fun, upbeat stuff!

Alrighty then! Let's get going, 2012 is almost over!
The title of my letter today is: 2012... The Year of the Emerging Markets... and rightly so! Of the Top 25 Currency returns in 2012, 22 of them are from Emerging Markets Countries, with only the New Zealand dollar, Singapore dollar, and British pound able to crack the Top 25 for 2012.

The G-10 currencies, for the most part, eked out very small gains VS the dollar in 2012, as the volatility/swings in the currencies took place throughout the year. At no extended time in the year, did either the currencies or metals find terra firma. But, all-in-all, the underlying trend that has been in place for 11 years now, to sell dollars, remained in place.

2012 began with the usual claims by the U.S. Gov't, economists, etc. that 2012 was going to be the year that saw the U.S. economy soar once more... But, by summer, the Fed Reserve was implementing another round of Quantitative Easing, and making plans to keep interest rates near zero for another 2 years. So apparently those claims had been deep sixed, and the economy was back to a faint pulse.

Greece was back in the news in 2012, but by the end of the year, a relative calm had set in for the Eurozone. As the year progressed, Spain and Italy were added to the peripheral countries that had experienced soaring bond yields, and rumors of bailouts. No bailout, as I go to press, has been requested, and bond yields have slowly fallen, giving Spain and Italy a reprieve.

The thing I keep telling people is that the biggest surprise of 2012 in the currencies, happens to be the euro. Think about all the negativity for the Eurozone region in the past two years, and all the calls for a collapse of the union, and the euro. Early in 2012, economists, and pundits from all around the world called for the euro to fall to parity and below from its perch around 1.30... Well, as I go to press the euro remains around 1.30 give or take a cent or two either way... What happened to all the calls for a collapse? And as I say to people all the time, if the euro is still trading well above the dollar with all the negativity it has endured, what does that tell you about the dollar?

China took more steps toward their goal of removing the dollar as the reserve currency of the world, signing currency swap agreements with Australia and Japan. Rumors have it that China is still in negotiations with the Arab countries, folks... If that would happen, the dollar's relevance in the world of oil trade would be greatly reduced. But it's more than currency swap agreements. China has also allowed bonds to be traded offshore (Hong Kong) for the first time, and the dim sum bond market is growing by leaps and bounds, thus giving the Chinese currency a wider range of distribution that will be used to remove the dollar as the reserve currency at some point in the future.

2012 also brought us right smack dab to the ceiling limit on our national debt. Wasn't it just August of 2011 that we last visited the ceiling limit? Remember that? Our country nearly defaulted, S&P lowered our credit rating, and our leaders agreed to accept $1.2 Trillion in spending cuts that would begin in 2013. Well, the debt limit was increased $1.4 Trillion in August of 2011.... And in just over 12 months, we are bumping up against the ceiling limit once again. The Fiscal Cliff, that consists of the end of the Bush tax cuts, and the spending cuts I mentioned above, is set to occur once we flip the calendar to 2013. 2.1 million people will have their unemployment benefits disappear, and that's just the start of the rot on the vine that will be exposed in the form of the U.S. economy for 2013.

As 2012 comes to an end, our lawmakers are in discussions about ways to avert the Fiscal Cliff, and by the time this letter prints, we could very well have found those ways. The Fiscal Cliff is a two-edged sword, folks... Either we go headfirst over the cliff, and begin to experience the pain that we should have first experienced back in 2001, when we first came up with a way to kick the can down the road and avert a bad recession by cutting interest rates and leaving them there longer than anticipated or needed.

Or... we find a way to kick the can further down the road, and leave the pain, loss of purchasing power and loss of liberties that will come with higher taxes and regulations, to our kids and grandkids.

Another item that caused a ruckus in 2012, was the election. After all the harsh words were said, and fingers pointed, we ended up with the same players as previously. So, if our Debt has increased roughly $6 Trillion in the past 4 years, we can expect to see a similar addition to the National Debt in the next 4 years, for the spending cuts aren't really "debt cuts", they are cuts of future spending. So, all the framers of the budget have to do, is increase spending by "X" and it will be cut... And the future spending cuts are scheduled to take place over the next 10 years!

So... as I wrap this up and put a bow on it, for you to read ahead of your New Year's celebration, I want to take a minute and thank you all for your continued support of the Pfennig newsletter. When we turn the calendar to 2013, I'll be celebrating 21 years of writing the Pfennig... So, when I talk about "long time readers" that "long time" could go back 21 years!

Happy New Year, and may 2013 be safe, and prosperous!

Sincerely,
Chuck Butler

President
EverBank World Markets, a division of EverBank

Pain or Profits?

Your Choice in 2013!

by Mike Larson

Dear Sir

Some analysts laughed when we warned that the tech boom would collapse into a bloody wreck.

Others scoffed when we warned that the real estate boom would implode, wounding millions and send the economy reeling into a deep recession.

Now, we’re issuing the most important warnings in our company’s 40-year history:
First off, the Fiscal Cliff is about to crush taxpayers with higher taxes across the board. Don’t be fooled by the so-called negotiations in Congress — tax hikes for ALL are on the way.

Heck, there are EIGHT Obamacare taxes coming in 2013 and they’re not even part of the Fiscal Cliff negotiations!

Second, look for America to lose its AAA rating faster than Ben Bernanke can print his funny money. Just last week, Fitch Ratings warned that the U.S. is likely to lose its top-notch debt rating if lawmakers don’t strike a deal on the Fiscal Cliff ... AND increase the debt ceiling.

Either way, the caca is going to hit the air conditioner in the weeks ahead!

Congress can compromise on the Fiscal Cliff and raise the debt ceiling so we spend our way into oblivion ... or we fall off the cliff and watch bond prices plummet while interest rates skyrocket.

One thing is for sure:
2013 is NOT going to be
your average, garden-variety year!

CurrencyMan:

These opinions from Money and Markets pretty much hit the nail on the head. 2013 is going to unlike any other year that we in our lifetimes have ever seen.

I have been around for many moons and I have been involved with investments for over 50 years and it is clear to me that we are at a critical point in the world financial structure.

Happy New Year Everyone...

in case of fiscal deal today, how many pips
could go eur/usd up on monday, before
falling again?

Hi CM...
The only thing we can be 100% sure is that every year brings something new and "unexpeted" ;-)
Definitely 2013 will get us some "fun" trading, yet we don't know when and what about...
Good green trades to you, too C.M.
-

Supply and Demand Trader from Houston.
Heard alot abou this group from friend
Says there are smart traders nice folks
Hope to fit in'
Nothing on the open in my preferred pair seems to suggest move to 1.3145 and then a scoot back to 1.3075 +/- 20 pips then race back to 1.3175 an the top comes off.

Not a recommendation just writing what my journal shows orders to sell at 1.3125 1.3145 stop 1.3175 target 1.3175


I trade 3:1
H4 D1 Zones position based on candle formation and dollar index on M15
3% per trade 15% of my capital at risk max if un coorelated pairs 7-9% if coorelation close to 1:1

but GPBUSD is near H4 supply and looks ripe for a quick tumble So I am getting short at the open

i refuse to try to decipher the events as I know i never get the right story ..... I spot the whale and do what he does!

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4406/wrapping-2012

A Very Good Resource and the year summary...

Gold will have a big effect in 2013 on Currency Prices. As of January 1, 2013 Gold can be used as 100% Collateral which makes it better than the other collateral classes since it carries no debt with it and has been around for 5000 years at least as a safe store of wealth.

Snippet:

Wrapping 2012



Saturday, December 29, 2012 at 12:53 pm

2012 is nearly over and it feels like it has been a tough and lousy year. And it has. But has it been that bad? Could it have been a lot worse? Damn straight it could have been.

As we entered 2012, silver had bounced off of $26 but was still only trading near $28. Gold had touched $1550 and was near $1570. There was no current, overt quantitative easing program, only Operation Twist, and we were just beginning an election year with all of the attendant MOPE and SPIN regarding an economic recovery. Things looked pretty darn bleak.

Of course, we know what happened next. The metals rallied through January and February. They swooned until August and then rallied again into October before being beaten back again. It was all painful to watch and very little fun to write about...BUT...the metals have eked out a gain this year. Gold is UP nearly $100 and silver is up $2 or about 7% each. Again, I'm not trying to slather lipstick on the proverbial pig here but...given all of the things we faced in 2012...that's not too shabby and, as we head into 2013, the situation looks almost entirely different.

The U.S. economy is dragging along the bottom. The U.S federal deficit and debt are growing hopelessly out of control and the country's credit rating is poised to be downgraded again sometime very soon. Global central banks are accumulating physical metal at an increasing pace and the Federal Reserve is openly printing $85B/month. My point is: If the metals can survive 2012 with all of the headwinds, how might they trade in 2013 with the wind at their back?

Exactly.

Yesterday's CoT showed a continuation of spec long liquidation in gold and the silver specs finally gave up, too. For the week, gold was only down $12 yet the specs shed over 14,400 net longs, which allowed the Gold Cartel to cover another 14,400 net shorts. But silver fell almost $2, with most of the damage coming on the successive days of 12/19 and 12/20. The specs responded by dumping almost 8,400 gross longs. Apparently the pain became too extreme to hold on any longer.

So, as we head into 2013, here is a CoT snaphot. The large specs are long a gross total of 200,436 contracts. The Cartel is short a gross total of 327,413 and the Cartel net short ratio is 2.34:1. As we entered 2012, the large specs were long 167,413 but The Cartel was short a nearly identical 326,454 with a net short ratio of 1.95:1.

Here is the story on Gold as 100% collateral and a GAME CHANGER !!!

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...sovereign-debt

Snippet:

Basel III (and Basel II) divides bank assets into three risk categories (credit, market and liquidity risk) and weights its risk depending on its attributes. Gold is“zero percent risk-weighted” in terms of credit risk. This is a huge upgrade for the metal. Delving into the nuances, gold still has “market risk” stemming from its price fluctuations. This means capital must be marked to market. Physical gold is not treated the same as cash or AAA to AA- sovereign bonds when it comes to calculating its Tier 1 ratio. The market risk will only be negative if the value of the price of gold (POG) drops.

But what happens if POG takes off? Then well-positioned banks would see a boost in capital. The chance of getting a capital boost holding the assortment of faux, central-bank-inflated, “higher-rated,” no-return sovereign bonds is nearly zero. How much upside is there in a two-year U.S. Treasury yielding 25 basis points? The fact is that in a steep sell off, liquidity would erode fast. Some may argue that banks won’t make a directional gold bet using their equity as the buffer. I would argue that they make directional bets with currencies and bonds every day.

Snippet:

Basel III will also be adding an entirely new layer of regulation concerning the relative liquidity of the bank’s assets and liabilities. This is a little unclear at the moment, but it suffices to say that gold’s status will be upgraded even if not all of the way to a zero-risk rating. On this topic, Eric Sprott wrote:

There is a strong chance that this liquidity definition for gold may be changed. The World Gold Council has in fact been lobbying the Basel Committee, the Federal Reserve and the FDIC on this issue as far back as 2009, and published a paper arguing that gold should enjoy the same liquidity profile as cash or AAA-government securities when calculating Basel III’s LCR and NSFR ratios. And as it turns out, the liquidity definitions that will guide banks’ LCR and NSFR calculations have not yet been finalized by the Basel Committee. The Basel III comment period that ended on October 22nd resulted in the deadline being pushed back to January 1, 2013, and given the recent delays with the US bank regulators, will likely be postponed even further next year. Of specific interest to us is how the Basel Committee will treat gold from a liquidity-risk perspective, and whether they decide to lower gold’s liquidity “haircut” from 50% to something more reasonable, given gold’s obvious liquidity superiority over that of equities and bonds. The only hint we’ve heard thus far has come from the World Gold Council itself, which suggested in an April 2012 research paper, and re-iterated on a recent conference call, that gold will be given a 15% liquidity “haircut”, but we have not been able to confirm this with either the Basel Committee or the FDIC.

Regardless of the final nuances on liquidity, it’s clear that gold’s money status under Basel III will be significantly enhanced. Banks are looking for collateral and each credit downgrade removes more of it. Gold is logical, even if it is not given the exact same footing as AAA to AA- sovereigns.

Good Evening Everyone,
I wana thank all the traders posting in this forum & specially PipTrapper.
All of your posts were usueful for me and i learnt so many things just from reading it everyday.

I just started trading about half a year ago and i have to admit i though it was a piece of cake
but the reality hurt my pocket however forex trading become like an obsession to me so i decided to dedicate
my full time to learn it from A -> Z. As i'm a geek of learning new stuff i advanced so fast that i've ignored
one of the most important things : MONEY MANAGEMENT. Yeah even i knew that i had a bad MM i couldn't
find a way to fix it and i kept trading simply because i was too greedy seeing so many green pips in the table but after
working so hard every week and reaching some some good profit i end up by giving it back to the market due to SL
or margin call. After some big losses i switched back to demo trying to build some good strategies and i loved scalping
for a few pips with high leverage which again killed me after a good run.
Lately i started combining fundamental & technical to make some long term trades and scalp the rest of the day
i finally reached my goal of having ( 50 - 70 pips ) per day with small trades which was amazing for me but i couldn't handle
the long term trade : i keep the red for so long and when it turns into green i close it right away !!
My only reaming big issue is MM , if i had one from the start it really would have saved me.

Anyway i closed 2012 with a good profit for a newbie XD ( couple of thousand $ ) now i'm focusing to make Forex Trading my first income
so i need your help & knowledge to establish a good MM to continue my way for the new year .
EuroTraderJD have mentioned a MM software that he's using so if it doesn't bother you , could you please guide me to have one like yours and of course i'm open to all kind of advises from this community ( i don't mind reading so send me all your links for some good MM guides )

Happy New Year to ALL

morning all

week 31 Dec 2012

s-range 1.3173 - 1.3238

will resume daily summaries after pa settles down into the new year

http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-resear...gmrefcode=gata

I Kid You Not !!! Watch Out Below !!!

Research Material...

Snippet:

Alasdair Macleod's Outlook for 2013

2012-DEC-30

http://www.goldmoney.com/images/thumbnails/images.jpgI have not faced the prospect of a new year with so much trepidation as when I contemplate what is in store for 2013. Systemic risks abound, which of themselves are not the main story, only milestones on the road to final currency destruction, unless governments somehow regain their senses.
To help understand the perils of 2013 I shall give them their background context first before listing them individually. No such list can be exhaustive or temporally sequenced, but all on it have the same root: the long-term accumulation of a burden of unsupportable debt.

This is a story that started with the end of the First World War, and involves a world which replaced laissez-faire with political motivation in economic and monetary affairs, moving away from wealth-creation into wealth-destruction in the cause of the common good. This was what motivated Keynes. In his Concluding Notes to his General Theory he said as much: he looked forward to the “euthanasia of the rentier” (a term for saver he intended to convey disdain), to be replaced by “communal saving by the agency of the state to be maintained at a level which will allow the growth of capital up to the point where it ceases to be scarce”. Monetarists in charge of central banks join Keynes in this objective, acting as the agency by which savings are destroyed and capital is made to be no longer scarce.

I shall not go into business cycle theory, beyond to say that government and central bank manipulation of their economies and fiat monies has succeeded in deferring the bankruptcies and liquidation of accumulated malinvestments, to the point where their cost can no longer be sustained. By 2007/08 the accumulation of debt was too large for distorted, burdened and weakened economies to support. And this is not just a single-country problem, because it has become a problem everywhere. The United States, the United Kingdom and the eurozone countries reached this terminal point together while Japan had been waiting in the wings for them to catch up. These nations alone account for about half global GDP. The banks to which all this debt is owed are financially interconnected and also linked to other banks in countries where the debt bubble is not so acute.
The coincidence of all nations following the same path to destruction is the result of international coordination that has increasingly dominated global politics since the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944. The response to the financial crisis of 2008 was to draw in more participants, leading to the G20 becoming the post-crisis forum for international economic coordination. Never in modern history have we seen so many governments agreeing to make the same mistakes; and it is hard to see, with the underlying inter-connectivity of their banks, how there is room for dissent.

The global banking system for the last five years has struggled with insufficient capital, over-valued collateral, and an underlying tendency for balance sheets to deflate. Their respective governments through their central banks are back-stopping these insolvent institutions by flooding them with both sovereign debt and fiat money, and manipulating credit markets to maintain valuations. Take these distortions away and we see the private sector economy still contracting four years after the credit bubble burst, a fact that is concealed by the expansion of both government spending and fiat money. Otherwise, bank balance sheets would have contracted, wiping out their aggregate capital, in some cases several times over.
Governments do not generally realise they are in the midst of an economic collapse. The manipulation of credit, money and prices has made economic calculation impossible. There is little difference in this respect between the communism of failed states in the past and the regulated and planned economies of today, except perhaps in the degree of state interference. As happened with the Soviet Union, eventually ordinary people, by acting in their individual interests, will bring about the downfall of their governments. It is bound to happen unless governments reverse course.

That is a very brief summary of the global crisis, and being fully committed to Keynesian fallacies it is immensely difficult for governments to
turn back. In the longer term, government health and welfare spending is also escalating beyond control. Furthermore attempts to reduce persistent budget deficits through higher taxes on the private sector will only depress economic activity, reducing tax revenues. The majority of economists, the neo-classicists who misunderstand the very basis of their subject, seem unable to grasp the origin of the problem they themselves have helped governments to create.

Systemic risks in 2013


Banks


CurrencyMan: Please read on if you are interested in the future.

With the Yen now getting weaker as a Japan NEW Government strategy. With Gold soon to be a Tier One Collateral Asset. With the USA about to Go Over The Cliff and Europe's problems in Greece, Spain, France and Italy only kicked down the road EXPECT Major changes in the markets as soon as December 31, 2012.

I predict that for those that understand the issues there are fortunes to be made.

The Best To Everyone For The New Year of 2013

Stay Alert... Have A Good Trade Plan. Be ready for anything. Watch the value of the Yen, Gold and The US Bonds.

Good Trading and tomorrow is my personal 69 !!!

paradigm shifting?
Trail of the smart money:

The software I designed came as a result of the same lessons/pain you have gone through. Since I dont use a SL I needed something. Being a seasoned software engineer/database administrator I used my God given talent to design a program to assist me. Everyone trades differently and this MM program reflects my style.

The basics are it takes the size of my account balance, last open position size (in units), current price of the Euro AND Euro price location of my last open trade.

This last parameter is used to prevent a price plop (too much pos size at a Euro price level) to give me the next POSSIBLE position location. The indos may say sell/buy now but if its within the price plop range I pass. Better to pass on greed and live to trade another day.

The price plop setting tells me at a minimum where my next position should be in pips ie 36 pips from my last open pos.

The software is calibrated in a pyramid size formation (for the Euro the main trend is down) so the higher the price of the Euro is the larger the position size. ie more size at 1.3xx vs. 1.2xx.

Currently I am working on an .NET Internet version of the software program when I am in between development projects. Once I have it completed I am open to others trying it out.

Remember MM is only one side of the triangle but the most important part. The other sides are indos that tell me when I should get in and fundo analysis to keep me grounded.

For fundos I read and read and read all day from different news feeds, twitter, and 2 forums to hear what other traders are thinking.

Trading is like front line combat in the 82nd Airborne (US Army). Many hours of extreme boredom sprinkled with intense sporadic action.

http://gadzetgallery.com/wp-content/...-wallpaper.jpg

Some tips to consider when designing your personal MM system...

1. Always know your risk limit before entering a trade and never cross it. (no exceptions)

2. Only sell against resistance and/or buy against support. Selling or buying breakouts should only be done after the breakout and a successful retest of the breakout afterwards.

3. Always split your trade into a few smaller sized positions. If you blow your whole load the first time, you have no more ammunition to average in to a loser or scale in to a winner. My preference is to split into 4 positions, but how you do it is up to your style.

4. Always analyse multiple time frames and identify support/resistance pivots or supply/demand pivot areas in each time frame. Higher time frame pivots have more significance than lower time frame ones.

5. Your aggregate position size from all open positions should never exceed 10:1 ratio. In order words, for every $1,000 in available margin, your max position lot size exposure should not exceed 1 mini-lot (or 0.1 standard lots)

Excellent words of advice

A concise and effective trading instruction manual. Follow these 5 points and you will make money while staying out of trouble.

Great job, PT. This is a keeper.