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  • #4,281
  • Dec 24, 2012 8:03am Dec 24, 2012 8:03am
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
Cool

I know I'm supposed to be waiting for the part 5 video with the entry/exit techniques...but I'm too curios how you approach these types of setups.

TT at the S/D zone ( for a higher R:R ) or after the FB is confirmed (higher winrate probably) or after the FB on a retracement into the S/R level ( medium R:R and winrate ), etc

Basically every approach sacrifices something. It's not any one particular best strategy imo...
The retrace entry will always offer the same win rate as the entry based on the bar close (once the FB has been confirmed) won't it, but the former will result in a higher %R - though you have to factor in the number of times price doesn't retrace too...i.e. lower trade frequency.

The TT at any SD zone is always going to be more aggressive as it's before the FB is confirmed and thus any such approach should involve significantly less risk to reflect the decreased probability.

Part 5 will be uploaded before the year is out.
  • #4,282
  • Dec 24, 2012 8:15am Dec 24, 2012 8:15am
Quoting lovejoy80
The retrace entry will always offer the same win rate as the entry based on the bar close (once the FB has been confirmed) won't it, but the former will result in a higher %R - though you have to factor in the number of times price doesn't retrace too...i.e. lower trade frequency.

The TT at any SD zone is always going to be more aggressive as it's before the FB is confirmed and thus any such approach should involve significantly less risk to reflect the decreased probability.

Part 5 will be uploaded before the year is out.

Heh. That's true and i know the pro/cons of each approach... I asked you because your vast experience may prove useful in determining which of these approaches has the highest long-term expectancy (since i don't have any decent samplesize to research this).

And regarding exits, this is the way i see the profit taking areas in your last example.

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I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #4,283
  • Dec 26, 2012 1:22pm Dec 26, 2012 1:22pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
Heh. That's true and i know the pro/cons of each approach... I asked you because your vast experience may prove useful in determining which of these approaches has the highest long-term expectancy (since i don't have any decent samplesize to research this).

And regarding exits, this is the way i see the profit taking areas in your last example.

Attachment
I'll explain more about entry techniques and my experience of what generates the largest expectancy in Part 5.

But whatever I go through you should be building up a good example of past setups for yourself. Confidence comes from knowing why something works and seeing it happen over and over again and without confidence you have nothing in trading - so an essential part of learning to apply concepts to a trading strategy is building up a library of setups - I have nearly 1000 past FB setups for example across multiple pairs and TF's, it's one of the reasons why I'm always very confident in my trades - professional due diligence.

I would be targeting your 2nd zone as my main FLR. Although the first area is an legitimate resistance it's fairly close and I'd be looking for the order-flow strength generated from the FB to overcome this. I'd be watching price action at that area though i.e. if price showed me this was more formidable resistance than I envisaged then I'd adapt accordingly, but ultimately I'd be targeting the 2nd zone as my first target.
  • #4,284
  • Dec 26, 2012 7:07pm Dec 26, 2012 7:07pm
Came back from my business trip last weekend. Maybe no trades for me this week because of the lack of liquidity.

I wish all the members here a Happy New Year and many many pips in 2013.
  • #4,285
  • Dec 27, 2012 2:13pm Dec 27, 2012 2:13pm
Hey LJ, how would you rate this trade?

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I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #4,286
  • Dec 28, 2012 10:50am Dec 28, 2012 10:50am
Quoting lovejoy80
Been taking it easy from a trading perspective recently and have used some of the spare time to work on finishing the trade strategy section on my website.

This morning I uploaded Parts 2-4 of the 'Trading False Breakouts' strategy - there is one final part to follow over the next few days then I'll host a webinar in early January to run through some Q&A and more chart examples (you need to have signed up to the free members section on my forum and to have accepted the Aweber mailing list invite to receive an invitation to the webinar).

Have...
Part 5 (final part) now available to watch: Trading False Breakouts - Part 5
  • #4,287
  • Dec 29, 2012 2:16pm Dec 29, 2012 2:16pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
Hey LJ, how would you rate this trade?

Attachment
In short tradable but definitely not the highest probability type setup.

Personally I split my SR FB trades into 2 categories 'A' and 'B' - this would be in the latter category because:

1. The SR is not as clear and concise as it could be.
2. There is not an obvious strong build up of order-flow at this SR i.e. there was only one previous test as support (since it was resistance) - meaning that this isn't as obvious an area as it could be in terms of breakout and other similar traders looking for shorts.
  • #4,288
  • Dec 29, 2012 8:25pm Dec 29, 2012 8:25pm
Quoting lovejoy80
In short tradable but definitely not the highest probability type setup.

Personally I split my SR FB trades into 2 categories 'A' and 'B' - this would be in the latter category because:

1. The SR is not as clear and concise as it could be.
2. There is not an obvious strong build up of order-flow at this SR i.e. there was only one previous test as support (since it was resistance) - meaning that this isn't as obvious an area as it could be in terms of breakout and other similar traders looking for shorts.
Thanks for your input. I really appreciate it!

From your videos, this example is what I liked the most and I will be trying to spot these and stick to mostly the highest probability ones.

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I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #4,289
  • Dec 30, 2012 7:12pm Dec 30, 2012 7:12pm
Happy New Year....LJ, Balhana, and members of all
I've learned lots of things from you guys...thanks!
I hope to inhale many pips usig skills that I've learned here...
Gook luck 2013~~
  • #4,290
  • Edited 2:55pm Dec 31, 2012 2:04pm | Edited 2:55pm
Happy New Year guys!

May the $$$ be with you in 2013!

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I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #4,291
  • Jan 1, 2013 5:03am Jan 1, 2013 5:03am
Quoting Balhana
Came back from my business trip last weekend. Maybe no trades for me this week because of the lack of liquidity.

I wish all the members here a Happy New Year and many many pips in 2013.
Quoting the12secret
Happy New Year....LJ, Balhana, and members of all
I've learned lots of things from you guys...thanks!
I hope to inhale many pips usig skills that I've learned here...
Gook luck 2013~~

Quoting DaGrizlyBull
Happy New Year guys!

May the $$$ be with you in 2013!
Happy New Year to all :-)
  • #4,292
  • Jan 1, 2013 5:09am Jan 1, 2013 5:09am
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
Thanks for your input. I really appreciate it!

From your videos, this example is what I liked the most and I will be trying to spot these and stick to mostly the highest probability ones.

Attachment
That is certainly one of my preferred setups too in terms of what constitutes a maximum risk setup for me i.e. an SR FB with a clear SD zone that should cause the FB bar.

"Sticking to the highest probability ones" is good to start with in terms of building up confidence and making some money, but it's important to realise that in the long term this is NOT the most efficient approach to maximising your profit. If you can approach the market with a mindset of 'I will trade what I know makes me money if I repeat it over and over again' you will make a lot more profit than just trading the highest probability setups.

This is trading according to long term expectancy and not trading according to highest win rate - it's not necessarily easy to do but if you have complete confidence in your trading then it's the RIGHT approach to maximising your profit.

Unfortunately, most don't have high confidence and thus need to focus on high win rate setups only which means lower trade frequency, lower expectancy and thus lower overall profit.
  • #4,293
  • Jan 1, 2013 11:51am Jan 1, 2013 11:51am
I wish everyone here a happy and prosperous new year. The knowledge and experience Lovejoy shares here is unreal. I hope everyone is learning from him and the other experienced traders that post in this thread and working to give themselves the best gift in the world...

Financial Freedom.

Thank you to everyone who takes their time to make this the best thread on Forex Factory!
  • #4,294
  • Jan 2, 2013 3:19pm Jan 2, 2013 3:19pm
Happy new year to you all.

There's nothing like starting 2013 with a winner, all be it just over 1R. Plenty of missed opportunities but that's how it goes.
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  • #4,295
  • Jan 2, 2013 3:46pm Jan 2, 2013 3:46pm
Quoting 5.25
Happy new year to you all.

There's nothing like starting 2013 with a winner, all be it just over 1R. Plenty of missed opportunities but that's how it goes.
Slightly different chart attached, mental PA interpretation of the one I regretfully missed.
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  • #4,296
  • Jan 2, 2013 4:35pm Jan 2, 2013 4:35pm
Quoting 5.25
Happy new year to you all.

There's nothing like starting 2013 with a winner, all be it just over 1R. Plenty of missed opportunities but that's how it goes.
I saw this one like this Congratz on the first 2013 winner!

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I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #4,297
  • Jan 2, 2013 4:45pm Jan 2, 2013 4:45pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
I saw this one like this Congratz on the first 2013 winner!

Attachment
Thanks Grizly, that's a 100% strike rate for 2013 lol
  • #4,298
  • Jan 3, 2013 12:14am Jan 3, 2013 12:14am
https://www.tradingview.com/x/LBaLvJSF/
  • #4,299
  • Jan 3, 2013 2:01pm Jan 3, 2013 2:01pm
Quoting entheos
https://www.tradingview.com/x/LBaLvJSF/
My feed looks slightly different but I'd reach the same conclusion on both feeds - the SR is not clear and concise enough for an FTB for me - also the lack of a clear reaction last time out is not a good sign. I want to see price showing me a key decision was made here i.e. either an RBR prior to the breakout or a clear immediate retest, neither of which occur.

The recent H1 FTB setup as per my 2nd chart below is one I would like - much clearer (and more recent) SR combined with a clear RBR prior to the breakout (which would be the basis for entry and SL placement) with a clear FLR as support turned resistance and untested supply as marked.
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  • #4,300
  • Jan 3, 2013 3:43pm Jan 3, 2013 3:43pm
Thanks very much for your advice!

Quoting lovejoy80
My feed looks slightly different but I'd reach the same conclusion on both feeds - the SR is not clear and concise enough for an FTB for me - also the lack of a clear reaction last time out is not a good sign. I want to see price showing me a key decision was made here i.e. either an RBR prior to the breakout or a clear immediate retest, neither of which occur.

The recent H1 FTB setup as per my 2nd chart below is one I would like - much clearer (and more recent) SR combined with a clear RBR prior to the breakout (which would be the basis for...
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