EURUSD

There's no exact science in reading the Forex volume because forex is not traded as commodities exchange, therefore it's tick volume. The volume bar indicator on your terminal will always tick up with every PA movement up or down. It also depends on your broker is feeding the tick volume to your terminal as per InterBank feeds with/without censoring. Then there's smart money and dumb money in play. You have to Google it because I am not smart

1. Dumb money = Low volume bar indicator > PA - jerky big movement almost like stop hunts.
2. Smart money = High volume bar indicator > PA - small movement as in slow motion.
3. Some will say when the volume is low the spread is wide (both smart and dumb are in play).

I don't rely on this tick volume, perhaps someone who is actually using InterBank feeds might chime in on this.

The punishment becomes less painful , but still you get a fair slice of it You can't escape that , Punishment never forgets or forgives ..

this message should be framed, thanks Kiwitrada!

By Richard Cowan and Rachelle Younglai
WASHINGTON | Sat Dec 29, 2012 2:32pm EST
(Reuters) - Congressional negotiators burrowed into their Capitol offices on Saturday to see if they can stop the economy from falling off a "fiscal cliff" in just three days when the biggest tax increases ever to hit Americans in one shot are scheduled to begin.

Aides to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell were expected to work through the day on a possible compromise that would set aside $600 billion in tax increases and across-the-board government spending cuts that are set to kick in next week.

A variety of lower taxes are scheduled to expire on December 31. If allowed to rise, the approximately $500 billion value of the revenue increases would represent a historic hike when taken together.

The combined punch of the tax increases and spending cuts would likely put the U.S. economy into a downward spiral, according to economists' forecasts.

"We're now at the point where, in just a couple days, the law says that every American's tax rates are going up. Every American's paycheck will get a lot smaller. And that would be the wrong thing to do for our economy," President Barack Obama said in his weekly radio and Internet address, which was broadcast on Saturday.

At midday, McConnell walked into his office on the second floor of the Capitol. Asked by waiting journalists if he thought his efforts would be successful, McConnell responded: "I hope so."

A Senate Republican leadership aide said that it might not be known until sometime on Sunday whether these talks bear fruit. That is when leaders are expected to brief their rank-and-file members.

The Senate is scheduled to hold a rare Sunday session beginning at 1 p.m. EST (1800 GMT), but it was not clear whether the chamber would have fiscal cliff legislation to act upon.

Reid and McConnell and their staffs held last-ditch negotiations Friday night and resumed on Saturday with no guarantees that their efforts would pay off. Republicans remained opposed to Obama's demand that households making above $250,000 a year see their income tax rate rise to 39.6 percent, from the current 35 percent, in order to help tame budget deficits.

In recent days, some aides have said that a $400,000 threshold, instead of $250,000, has been discussed as a possible compromise.

PESSIMISTIC OUTLOOK

Democrats and Republicans also are jousting over what to do about inheritance taxes on estates.

Unless Congress acts, the tax is set to jump on January 1 to 55 percent with the first $1 million exempted for individuals. Currently, there is a 35 percent tax and a $5 million exemption.

One Democratic aide was pessimistic that McConnell would come up with a counteroffer that Reid would find acceptable. Such a counteroffer would have to be calibrated in a way that also could attract votes from conservative House Republicans, many of whom have balked at any tax rate increases.

Similarly, a senior House Republican aide on Saturday voiced pessimism about prospects for a deal.

"It's hard to see Reid agreeing to anything that can get the votes of the majority of the majority in the House, thereby allowing a bipartisan accomplishment," the aide said. A "majority of the majority" refers to the 241 Republicans who are in the 435-member House.

The Republican aide placed the blame squarely on Democrats, as many Republican members have done publicly, saying that going off the fiscal cliff is a "policy upside" for them. "Higher taxes, devastating defense cuts. The polls tell them they can win the PR war in January. From their perspective, why stop the cliff dive?"

Democrats, in turn, have publicly accused Republican House Speaker John Boehner of preferring to put off any tough fiscal cliff votes until after a January 3 House election in which he is expected to win another two-year term as speaker.

If McConnell and Reid can manage to reach a deal on inheritance taxes and raising income tax rates on the wealthiest, they likely would throw into the compromise some other fiscal cliff solutions.

Those could include extending an array of other expiring tax breaks, such as one that encourages companies to conduct research and development. Also, Congress wants to prevent a steep pay-cut in January for doctors who treat elderly Medicare patients.

Lawmakers also want to prevent middle-class taxpayers from inadvertently creeping into a higher tax bracket, known as the alternative minimum tax, intended for the wealthiest.

If the Reid-McConnell effort fails, Obama has asked the Senate to hold a vote on Monday on a "basic package" that would stop taxes from going up on the middle class and would extend long-term unemployment benefits that are about to expire. If it passed the Senate, its fate would be in the hands of the Republican-controlled House.

(Additional reporting by Thomas Ferraro and Jeff Mason; Editing by Fred Barbash and Eric Beech)


Deal or no deal? I'm pretty sure we get at least a stop gap deal to buy time so Washington can continue to kick the can down the road & point fingers at each other for not being reasonable. Market reaction might not be as crazy as everyone is expecting IMO.

I totally agree with you, and those were great traders. However, I see a few problems:

There is too much arguing between traders. Silly, stupid shit that does not belong here. The non-analysis/trading shit.

There is a tightly-nit group of traders that tend to take over the thread. It is uninviting to new traders or those that want to weigh-in on trades or topics. In is not an really in open thread to others.

I believe FF in general needs to be a tight nit community. We do what others are afraid of doing, trading some of the riskiest markets in the world. Anything is possible.

I've done lots of things here that I'm not too proud of. I'm sure some others would say the same. We're competitive, we blow some steam and we argue. Sometimes, the argument degenerates into useless BS.

That's what the report button is for. Use it.

I was new here too. I didn't let others intimidate me because at the end of the day, they don't run my trades. Over time, those that value you will say so and those who don't will go away.

I agree with you. I am not trying to attack anyone, so please don't think of it that way, but as a new trader coming to FF, if thats what they see it is less likely they will stay. I don't need to be here either. I just got back from a three month "break." I'll make money regardless, but I like interacting with the FF community because I find it fascinating how everyone intergrades their analysis and such into trades.

The only point I am getting at is in order for FF to grow, we need to as well. Great and long-time FF members are leaving. Honestly, there are moments that if it wasn't for the news ticker and calendar there'd be no reason to stop by. I'd hate to see it like that.

FF is a great place and there are a lot of informative and great managed threads.
€/$ thread seems not worthy to be visited regularly, to much useless blah.

True, so very true.

It's about time you get them straightened out.

i can't learn you overnight. but i noticed that the solid lines represent the hi/lo of a consolidation point and the dashed the midpoint of which. correct?

the asian hi/lo determines breakout prices for intraday. PA would typically pull back to it before continuing its path. or a complete reversal happens. pullback/consolidation happens at TK/LO/NY session breaks (but sometimes they forget to take breaks esp if a fundi is moving the prices). yes? no decent pull back at all

Genius! as always!

@memberx: in a way i understand your concern. but take a look at this. if you looked at the H1 chart of EU prior to Dec 28, it was heavily ranging while EJ moved 500 pips up. by now you must have understood that EJ and EU's correlation is more than 90%. and EJ moved in a straight line, til they both hicked up in Dec 27. EJ made a new high, EU didn't, that was telling, both of which were at critical prices (intraday-intraweek per se).

the cost of shorting EU is 44 pips, while EJ was 9 pips. where shall you put your $$ then? or if EU wasn't presenting a good opportunity to take a position, why push it? go use corr instruments with higher probability that could react the same way as your indis/charts tell you

the way i see it, participants of this forum uses EU as the currency to analyze and trade, or an anchor pair to trade correlated instruments. undeniably, EU is a very good anchor vs sp, CHFjpy, gold and crude.it's not EU Only thread after all. In case you got lost, here is the thread for EU only. hope it helps and have a happy new year!

talking about correlation.. good grid I ripped off from the Internets..



full article here

http://www.forexoma.com/currency-pai...urrency-pairs/

Don't get hung up on the lines.. They don't really matter.. These ones are based on a formula, and have nothing to do with s/r or PA.. Somehow, the PA kind of respects them (just as it reacts to anything else, pivots, fibs, etc.).. You can have all the lines in the world on your chart, but if you can't tell which one will be hit (and even more importantly in what order), they're all useless.. I can always find something on the chart that was hit, and come back here and say: See? see? see? I need praises, anybody? It's all BS. All those sites trying to sell you something do exactly that. They fail to tell you though, what happens when all those lines are ignored by the price, and the damage that would do to your account.. These are only GUIDES.. I would probably look for trades around them, but the actual trading decision is not based on that.. It's based on a lot of other things.. understanding what is going on (that's the part I tried to describe with all those annoying posts on Thursday), s/r, s/d, time of day, who's trading, what's the news, etc. I am trying really hard to point peoples' attention to other things, be a detective first and a trader second.. In the end here's a question to answer: If it were that ONE line that would make millions, don't you think it would have been discovered by now by people much smarter than us? But then the market would stop to exist because nobody would take the opposite trade against such line.

I almost want to hug you for this. Thanks for sharing.

no homo, yes? lol.. I knew about it for a long time, never used it. But now that you mentioned I'll stare at it for a while..

김정은을 죽이면 넌 영웅이 된다.

Thats nice. In this quiet times, that dont happen often here
you can read nice themes..

Watching the correlation for a while.

Did you noticed it that the correlation changes from time to time.
One pair its corr. is 85 % changes after 5 months to corr. 10 %

Nothing wrong with that but no, not me. Hence the almost part.

소프트웨어로 번역을 발견하는 것을 축하드립니다.

No, nothing wrong with that indeed. I'm on the libertarian side of things, but now I'm starting to lean left for some reason.. They say as you get older you become more conservative. It's not quite happening to me..

I hate those labels. One is never truly conservative or liberal on every issue.