USD/JPY Discussion

The holiday was good thank you.
I had been doing that but only small size i'm now flat thinking the fiscal cliff may offer a chance at a better entry.

Thu Dec 27, 2012 9:30am EST
* Dollar/yen on track to end above 200-week moving average
* Risk reversals skewed towards more yen weakness
* U.S. "fiscal cliff" stalemate supports dollar


By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Dec 27 (Reuters) - The yen dropped to its lowest
against the U .S. d ollar in more than two years on Thursday o n
expectations a ne w government in Tokyo w ill pu sh for aggressive
monetary stimulus to boost a sluggish economy and take steps to
weaken the Japa nese curr ency.
The euro, meanwhile, rose for a second straight session and
traded above $1.32 for eight consecutive days partly on
position-adjustment going into the end of the year and a growing
view that euro zone debt tensions have eased.
But on a quiet pre-New Year's week, the focus remained
squarely on the yen. S peculators and hedge funds were
increasingly looking to sell yen for dollars, traders said. Some
said a dollar close above its 200-week moving average of 84.95
yen on Friday -- the first since late December 2007-- would be a
strong signal of further strength in the U.S. currency.
The dollar rose to 85.92 yen, its highest since
August 2010. It was last up 0.4 percent on the day at 85.91 yen
with option barriers cited at 86 yen and stop loss buy orders
above 86.10 yen.
"Yen weakness, based on expectations that the new Japanese
government will succeed in driving the dollar to 90 yen with a
combination of more aggressive monetary and fiscal policy, is
offering support to other currencies," said Marc Chandler,
global head of currency strategy, at Brown Brothers Harriman in
New York.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who has threatened to revise a
law guaranteeing the Bank of Japan's independence if it refuses
to set a 2 percent inflation target, appointed a cabinet of
close allies on Wednesday.
The yen has fallen around 10.5 percent versus the dollar in
2012, its biggest annual drop since 2005, with most of that
weakness coming in the past two months as expectations mounted
Abe will pursue policies to weaken the yen. A weaker yen helps
Japanese exports and has already lifted Japanese stocks.
Japan's benchmark Nikkei share average hit a 21-month high
on Thursday and has climbed 22 percent this year, putting it on
track for its best yearly gain since 2005.
In the options market, risk reversals in dollar/yen
showed a further bias towards yen weakness. Risk
reversals from one-month up to four-years were
skewed towards dollar calls or yen puts, reflecting increased
confidence among investors to bet against the Japanese currency.
One-month implied dollar/yen volatility, a
gauge of expected moves, rose to 8.5 vols from 7.3 last week,
close to the Dec. 13 near-six-month high of around 8.65,
highlighting growing demand to hedge against sharp price swings.
The yen touched its lowest level against the euro in nearly
17 months. The euro hit 114.14 yen, its strongest
against the yen since early August of 2011.

CLIFF CONCERNS
The euro traded at $1.3274, up 0.4 percent on the day
and just below an eight-month high of $1.3308 hit last week.
Speculators further trimmed short bets against the single
currency as euro zone debt worries ebbed.
Brown Brothers' Chandler said the euro zone's move away from
the abyss was clearly due to the European Central Bank and its
asset purchase program. He also cited moves by the European
Commission to grant several countries including France and Spain
an extra year to reach the 3.0 percent fiscal deficit target.
"An official announcement has not been made, but the signals
from the EC and the Commissioner for Economic and Monetary
Affairs (Olli) Rehn are unmistakable," Chandler said.
However, euro/dollar moves are also linked to U.S. budget
negotiations. A U.S. budget agreement is seen as positive for
riskier currencies such as the euro and negative for the
safe-haven and highly li q uid dollar.
Concerns the U.S. Congress might fail to head off a
potentially recession-inducing "fiscal cliff" of tax hikes and
spending cuts that are due to kick in next year could cap the
single currency's gains.
The dollar index stood at 79.4 11, down 0.3
percent on the day and a bove a two-month low of 79.008 hit last
week.

Still long, regained most of my pre Christmas loss.

gjob you got that one however 86.30 is a dangerous area so cant say but above 87.50 looks possible

Man

These YEN pairs are insane

this is crazy

BOOM

just watching my longs grow arms an legs

Brokers will pull out of this pair,I am pulling telephone numbers

That big fancy boat full off HOES an dancing poles,I can almost touch it

86.30 is outta the way already.

Nothing has been able to stop the yen's slide so far. Massive amounts of money being moved somewhere.

What is this movement? Hedge fund liquidations? So strong that I was not able to add new longs to existing ones. Yen crosses are accelerating, it is possible this is the end of the current big movement.

It honestly might not slow down till jan 12/13 don't remember exactly which day it is when Abe lays out his plan to reach the 2% inflation target he wants, even then depending on how solid his plan is it could still keep moving.

And I'm out, there is no more stretch. Shorting from this point on, man that was a ride!!

Im seller for today, 86,70 - 86.90 is great resistance with big selling orders ...

You don't give up do you?

Did you get out of the other one?

hey guys..hope u all enjoyed your holiday season

still short yen on many various pairs from back in sept/oct

UJ has some strong levels at the 88.00 handle... technically and fundamentally this pair may just be beginning a once in a generation style devaluation..

still holding as per the plan laid out months back. Only regret was I havent been day trading this past month to add more positions in




http://clip2net.com/s/2Ev7S

So much safer to wait for a consolidation below the most recent consolidation then short the bounce. Can't really understand why people want to be the first one on the move. If the move is real more than likely it will give you a second chance to enter if your patient. Is an award for being first 1 to the party that I don't know about

better buy on retracement, if can not do that short only after a couple of lower lows on daily chart. look all time frames starting from monthly to 1 h, that should tell you smth. do not commit suicide.

Same as me. My first short JPY contract from 79. Regarding the TA. My point of view is that there were a big range from 75.5 to 85.5. We left it 2 days ago. The calculated target is 95.5. Please note this is daily/weekly based analysis, not for daytraders.
I agree with you, there is a strong level around 88.

From BBC


27 December 2012 Last updated at 19:43 ET


Demand for some Japanese products has slowed in key markets resulting in a dip in its exports

Yen at 27-month low versus dollar
Shinzo Abe's economic challenge
Economic woes occupy voters
Japan has reported weak economic data, underlining the challenges the new government faces in reviving growth in the world's third-largest economy.

Industrial output fell in November as demand for exports continued to slow.

Consumer prices also dipped, indicating that deflation continues to remain a hurdle in boosting domestic demand.

Japan has been seeking to spur domestic demand to offset the decline in exports, which have fallen for six months in a row, and sustain growth.

The core consumer prices index, which excludes fresh food, fell 0.1% in November, from a year earlier.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry said that industrial production fell 1.7% from the previous month. Compared with the same month a year earlier, it was down 5.8%.

I got in on this at 84.034......not a bad run so far.

Also got in on EUR/JPY last night at 113.572.....also doing pretty well.

to say this is overbought is a massive understatement

this and the nikkei, gone into bubble like levels this week