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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #64,221
  • Dec 25, 2012 5:07pm Dec 25, 2012 5:07pm
Quoting mka_78
Hi guys, anyone seen something like this? Is it fake or just hunting some stops?
I don't see that in the other broker's platform.
Hey Mka, didn't notice U/CAD made such a drop but GBP/USD drop around 240 pips then bounced off to where it was now. Low liquidity and money is moving around is my guess.
  • #64,222
  • Dec 25, 2012 6:13pm Dec 25, 2012 6:13pm
Had this on my Live trading account on EURJPY 320 pip spike. Contacted the broker and got a credit for where my stop was hit versus where it was at the time and then reentered with a new order.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY1.PNG Size: 32 KB
  • #64,223
  • Dec 25, 2012 11:05pm Dec 25, 2012 11:05pm
I noticed that drop earlier today in the GBP/JPY, but I assume it was traders jacking with the low volume. My broker was closed, so I missed it. So sad
  • #64,224
  • Dec 25, 2012 11:33pm Dec 25, 2012 11:33pm
S&P futures Daily looking bearish. Trading below the 200 DEMA (I love DEMA oppose to other MAs) and bouncing slightly on the 50 DEMA. If it breaks, I see a nice decline and sell signal

Euro futures 4H also bearish trading below the 50 DEMA heading towards the 200 DEMA (@ 1.3146); the daily presents a small pin bar or gravestone/shooting star depending own your own definition ---- the wick is at least 5x the real body.
  • #64,225
  • Dec 26, 2012 2:39am Dec 26, 2012 2:39am
Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,226
  • Dec 26, 2012 2:47am Dec 26, 2012 2:47am
Quoting PipTrapper
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfcYukP_HIg
I agree (as indicated in my prior post). Excited to see what happens coming back from Christmas! First post-Christmas trading day!
  • #64,227
  • Dec 26, 2012 6:43am Dec 26, 2012 6:43am
A Dose Of Reality On Fiscal Cliff !!!

http://www.mybudget360.com/diving-in...g-for-decades/

Snippet:

Fiscal cliff in one chart
The fiscal cliff has been a quickly approaching development similar to clouds over the horizon for a couple of decades but when this recession hit, our spending far outstripped our revenues:
http://www.mybudget360.com/wp-conten...-and-taxes.png
This of course is not unusual for government spending to go up during a deep and prolonged recession. But keep in mind we went out of recession “officially” in the summer of 2009 and we are still spending as if we were in the midst of a crisis. Actually, the spending has only accelerated if you look at the above chart. We are seeing revenues now back to pre-recession levels but government spending is up by over $1.2 trillion.
While this might seem unwieldy this does not give the entire picture. Total credit market debt is at record levels:
http://www.mybudget360.com/wp-conten...rket-debt1.png
This is an even more troubling aspect of our current system because we are now largely a debt based system that focuses on bailouts and market manipulation to keep people spending money they don’t have. We obviously want all the luxuries of high spending but don’t want to pay for it. This is similar to a household spending money it doesn’t have to make up for decades of poor financial decisions. These policy moves are largely pushed by the Federal Reserve from the banking side of the equation to aid in propping up large member banks.
Banks have used the Fed balance sheet as the “toxic bank” and have shifted poorly performing assets there. Again, the Fed balance sheet is operating as if we are still in full recession:
http://www.mybudget360.com/wp-conten...ance-sheet.png
Ultimately the public is not being told the entire story. The narrative now is about the fiscal cliff being a sudden and unexpected turn of events. This was predictable more than a decade ago when we decided to spend more than we earned and thought this kind of deficit spending was somehow never going to catch up with us. Yet now it is. The young in our country are already experiencing their version of the fiscal cliff. We are putting the bill on younger Americans who now face the following:

-Massive student debt
-Lower wages and weaker job prospects
-A weakened Social Security System
-An evaporation of pensions
-Much higher healthcare costs
-Higher housing costs courtesy of low interest rates

The reality is realized when we look at the employment figures on a basis of our civilian-employment population ratio:
http://www.mybudget360.com/wp-conten...tion-ratio.png
  • #64,228
  • Dec 26, 2012 10:01am Dec 26, 2012 10:01am
Groovy E/U ..yea baby ,..behave
  • #64,229
  • Dec 26, 2012 10:04am Dec 26, 2012 10:04am
Quoting rekon67
Groovy E/U ..yea baby ,..behave
this is a pretty wild morning. in all sincerity, be safe all. big, unpredictable swings today. i almost loaded a euro long at 3248....

congrats to eur/jpy longs too. i keep looking for a good long entry but it just keeps on going.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #64,230
  • Dec 26, 2012 10:08am Dec 26, 2012 10:08am
Quoting redteamgo
this is a pretty wild morning. be safe all.

congrats to eur/jpy longs too. i keep looking for a good long entry but it just keeps on going.
Merry Christmas red, I am trying another method of trading like doing contra trades on eToro Signal Service and it proved good so far
  • #64,231
  • Dec 26, 2012 10:13am Dec 26, 2012 10:13am
merry christmas to you too.

today, trade-wise, i got a short in on s&p e-minis at 1423 even after some fluttering around due to a mix of higher highs/lower lows & vice versa. in the end, buyers felt weak and i sold well. i hope to see a test of the thursday evening lows around 1400.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: s&p.jpg Size: 167 KB
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #64,232
  • Dec 26, 2012 10:19am Dec 26, 2012 10:19am
Quoting redteamgo
merry christmas to you too.

today, trade-wise, i got a short in on s&p e-minis at 1423 even after some fluttering around due to a mix of higher highs/lower lows & vice versa. in the end, buyers felt weak and i sold well. i hope to see a test of the thursday evening lows around 1400.
gr8 trade.
  • #64,233
  • Dec 26, 2012 10:40am Dec 26, 2012 10:40am
Quoting redteamgo
this is a pretty wild morning. in all sincerity, be safe all. big, unpredictable swings today. i almost loaded a euro long at 3248....

congrats to eur/jpy longs too. i keep looking for a good long entry but it just keeps on going.
Been doing the same myself... as well as looking to add to U/J longs, but it seems futile. We need a major correction now, so other than maintaining my current longs from way below, I'm sidelined for now.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,234
  • Dec 26, 2012 10:41am Dec 26, 2012 10:41am
Quoting PipTrapper
Been doing the same myself... as well as looking to add to U/J longs, but it seems futile. We need a major correction now, so other than maintaining my current longs from way below, I'm sidelined for now.
good morning, pt. aye. but must wonder: will Abe ease before that correction occurs? timing is always the million dollar question.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #64,235
  • Dec 26, 2012 10:44am Dec 26, 2012 10:44am
Quoting redteamgo
good morning, pt. aye. but must wonder: will Abe ease before that correction occurs? timing is always the million dollar question.
Doesn't matter. Just don't chase it. "No major dip, No buy". There are plenty of other trades to take which offer much better RR... like the SP eMini short you took. Congrats btw
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,236
  • Dec 26, 2012 3:24pm Dec 26, 2012 3:24pm
Hey PT!

Hope you enjoyed the last couple of days off. I wanted to see if I can get your perspective and targets for EUR/AUD if possible?

I have 1.295 for my next short-term target but after that it is hard to get a read on next major resistance... I posted weekly and daily charts with my analysis, would love to get your input when you have a moment.

Thanks!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD - Weekly (12-22).jpg Size: 131 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD - Daily (12-22).jpg Size: 137 KB
  • #64,237
  • Dec 26, 2012 4:34pm Dec 26, 2012 4:34pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Doesn't matter. Just don't chase it. "No major dip, No buy". There are plenty of other trades to take which offer much better RR... like the SP eMini short you took. Congrats btw
I like to look at pairs as children, each a different age and predictablility. I prefer my pairs to act like an adult child so I can predict "wherte he/it will be tomorrow. But this pair eur/aud is in the "terrible twos" stage. Weekly and daily conflict. It is overbought yet showing no sign of stoppingt at all. I love this pair because it keeps me out of all the drama in america that we put on every damn bill the presidernt passes and 4 out of 5 days we seem to have important news releases. So I am sick on the USD pairs. But this pair is like an unstable child. What do you have to dop with one of those...often you have to walk away till it behaves itself. So I say pass! I will show my unique patent pending harmonic pattern which predicts this pair should turn bearish. It has already in 3 days almost negated the entire pattern. One more losing day and this pattern is negated. If I did play it now according to this computer generated paTTERN, IT WOULD HAVE ME PUTTING MY STOP AT: 127851 my tgts at: 12537,12284,12157 Huge r/r here for those needing a longshot. Me-I will pass. At least for another day or 2 to get more of a bead on it. The fact that I personally like the GBP/USD SHORT AND THE EUR/USD long when they run almost in tandem with each other I think says a lot about the state of the whole Forex market,anyone agree?

Let me all know what you think. Here is the daily chart.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf eurauddaily12-26-2012 5-13-05 PM.pdf   35 KB | 244 downloads
  • #64,238
  • Dec 26, 2012 4:47pm Dec 26, 2012 4:47pm
Quoting Silat50
I like to look at pairs as children, each a different age and predictablility. I prefer my pairs to act like an adult child so I can predict "wherte he/it will be tomorrow. But this pair eur/aud is in the "terrible twos" stage. Weekly and daily conflict. It is overbought yet showing no sign of stoppingt at all. I love this pair because it keeps me out of all the drama in america that we put on every damn bill the presidernt passes and 4 out of 5 days we seem to have important news releases. So I am sick on the USD pairs. But this pair is like...

I find your perspective on EUR/AUD interesting due to the fact that EUR/AUD is by far the most predictable and profitable pair that I trade along with AUD/JPY. We are clearly heading higher as there is no real resistance until 1.283 which can be seen from my chart. However, I see E/A moving higher to AT LEAST 1.295 before any significant retrace or pull back. Look at the weekly chart for E/A and you will see how nicely it respects S&R.

12,000+ pips on E/A alone in the past 14 months...

E/A is my bread and butter so to speak and I really enjoy trading this pair, plus it has a nice daily range averaging roughly 75 pips per day. Anyways, I think the post that you quoted from PT was in regards to USD/JPY.

**My main question to PT is what to "expect" after 1.295 as it hasn't broken out of this resistance for over a year now, so I expect it to hold quite nicely...
  • #64,239
  • Dec 26, 2012 11:23pm Dec 26, 2012 11:23pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Hey PT!

Hope you enjoyed the last couple of days off. I wanted to see if I can get your perspective and targets for EUR/AUD if possible?

I have 1.295 for my next short-term target but after that it is hard to get a read on next major resistance... I posted weekly and daily charts with my analysis, would love to get your input when you have a moment.

Thanks!
Yes, 1.2950 is key resistance and a breach/close above that level opens the door to the next major resistance (and inverted H/S measured target) at 1.40 which is the level I mentioned over a month ago. See chart.

E/A Weekly:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ea-w1.gif Size: 18 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,240
  • Dec 26, 2012 11:35pm Dec 26, 2012 11:35pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes, 1.2950 is key resistance and a breach/close above that level opens the door to the next major resistance (and inverted H/S measured target) at 1.40 which is the level I mentioned over a month ago. See chart.

E/A Weekly:
Attachment
PT,

Thanks for getting back to me on this. After reviewing the monthly and weekly charts again I can now see 1.395ish (1.40) being a pretty significant support in the past which should also serve as good resistance this time around assuming price makes it that high.

I remember you mentioning 1.40 at least a month ago, just didn't know why that particular number as I hadn't really looked for significant S&R above 1.295.

Now I have 2 more areas of potential resistance drawn up on my weekly E/A chart:

1.365 & 1.395

Your 1.40 fits nicely with the latter one


**Also, I never noticed the inverted H&S as chart patterns are not my forte, this just gives more confirmation for this particular trade! Thanks again Mr. Trapper!
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