USD/JPY Discussion

i remeber this statement but there wasnt any date...
what is more what can he say by the end of the year to make 90?
90 is really possible in...1st Q
but for the moment we should realize profits? (make some shorts)
dont You think?

It is a good place short i think yes.

but i wont be i will buy on dips

If you trade both ways, you will be eaten up..
The medium/long term trend is up.. you should look to buy in Dips.. not to short, you do not know when it will reverse..

Is it not technically still in a long term downtrend?

thanks but im trading on ecn so i got some Longs(from 93...) and shorts right now

btw im not tasty as You think
time to take a shower xD

You are long from 93!!! or 83?

83 my bad
93 christmas miracle time lol

Just for my understanding... I have seen this pair go up and down between 79-ish and 84-ish. How likely is it to go up till 90, really? Any thoughts?

More likely to go down from this point.. unless this is a fake break of short term support+TL at the moment.
Edit: Apparently was a fake(2nd one)... =/ got stopped about -10 this one.

I shorted before Christmas, looking at D1 and H4 it showed oversold. Hadn't read Abe's statement and my trade ended up going south. It still shows oversold though and I still expect it to go down. Just like to know how wrong my thinking is.

From my point of view just because it is overbought wouldnt be a sell signal to me on its own however this 85.51 area is a good place for a downside correction before a further move up.

as i have said before i will be buying dips.
Also need to watch that this are doesnt become a double top

There is weekly resistance at 85.82

Support at 84

2011 high has been broken, buy the dips is definitely the play. Markets seem to be taking Abe's words seriously. Shorting this pair is very dangerous.

when he will talk?

He spoke earlier & confirmed that he will make changes in BOJ if they don't stick to his game plan of weakening the yen. He's currently working a stimulus package that isn't capped by 44T yen debt issuance.

Yen slides to two-year low on Japan easing view, euro firmer

Wed Dec 26, 2012 12:11pm EST
* Abe voted in as Japanese prime minister
* BoJ minutes show some called for action if economy worsens
* Euro hits 16-month high vs yen

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Dec 26 (Reuters) - The yen dropped to a more than
two-year low against the dollar on Wednesday, after Shinzo Abe
assumed office as Japan's new prime minister and repeated his
pledge to push for more drastic monetary and fiscal measures and
tame the strong Japanese currency.
Meanwhile the euro traded above $1.32 against the U.S.
dollar for a seventh straight session and in midday New York
trading was firmer on the day. Traders said the euro's gain was
due to position adjustment going into the end of the year, with
investors continuing to reduce short bets on the currency.
The euro also surged to a 16-month high against the yen.
Overall trading volume was thin with many global financial
centers still closed for the Christmas holiday. All G10 markets
except Japan were closed on Tuesday, with only Japanese and U.S.
markets open on Wednesday. Hong Kong and Australia also remained
closed on Wednesday.
New Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe said on Wednesday his
government will pursue bold monetary policy, a flexible fiscal
strategy, and a growth plan to encourage private investment
. Abe, whose party won a landslide victory on
Dec. 16, was elected prime minister by parliament's lower house
on Wednesday.
"The election of Abe has had a galvanizing effect on the
dollar/yen exchange rate and he has been able to accomplish more
in two months of jawboning than the BoJ has...over the past
several years," said Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX
strategy at BK Asset Management in New York.
The yen was further weighed down by comments from Japanese
Finance Minister Taro Aso, who said on Wednesday he was
instructed by Abe to loosen the limits on bond issuance under
the stimulus package. Under Japan's stimulus plan, the debt
issuance cap has been set at 44 trillion yen..
That suggested further yen weakness as Japan floods the
market with its currency. Aso's remarks were one of the
catalysts for the yen's drop to a more than two-year low in
mid-morning trading.
Also undermining the yen were minutes of the Bank of Japan's
November policy meeting released on Wednesday which showed some
board members considered policy options if the outlook for the
economy and prices were to worsen.
One board member even suggested that the BoJ commit to
buying assets in an open-ended manner, without setting a strict
deadline, until it achieved its 1 percent consumer inflation
target.
The U.S. dollar rose as high as 85.70 yen, its
strongest level since mid-September 2010, breaking through
resistance at its 200-week moving average around 84.95 yen. It
last stood at 85.60 yen, up 1 percent on the day.
The yen has fallen more than 10 percent against the dollar
so far this year.
BK's Schlossberg said dollar/yen could hit Abe's ultimate
target of 90 yen if he continues to keep pressure on the BoJ to
further loosen its stance.
Against the yen, the euro rose as high as 113.39
yen, a 16-month high. It last stood at 113.17 yen, up 1.3
percent.
Technical analysts cited little resistance above last week's
high, with the euro's 200-week moving average still a good
distance, around 115.00 yen. The European unit has not closed
above that average since late Sept. 2008.
The U.S. dollar index, meanwhile, was little changed
at 79.632. On Tuesday, it rose as high as 79.780, its strongest
level since Dec. 14.
Ongoing concerns about the U.S. budget impasse continued to
underpin the U.S currency.
President Barack Obama may return to Washington from his
Hawaiian holiday as early as Wednesday evening to address
unfinished fiscal negotiations with Congress, according to an
administration official.
The next session of the U.S. Senate is set for Thursday, but
the issues presented by the "fiscal cliff" of tax hikes and
spending cuts scheduled to take effect next year were not on the
calendar.
The U.S. House of Representatives has nothing on its
schedule this week, but its members have been told they could be
called back on 48 hours notice, making their Thursday return a
theoretical possibility.
"Markets are in a stalemate with respect to the fiscal
cliff," said Brian Daingerfield, currency strategist, at RBS
Securities in Stamford, Connecticut. "Lawmakers aren't back yet
and I think the headlines on the fiscal cliff will ramp up
starting tomorrow."
The euro traded at $1.3220, up 0.3 percent.
"It has been year-end flows more than anything else for
euro/dollar. It's extremely quiet and even small moves tend to
get exaggerated," said Daingerfield.

thank you sir

The trend is so strong that it has broken all the resistance level. But the slope of the trend is more than 65 degree. So, This trend is more likely to fall very soon I think. Let's see what happen next.

I started to sell into what looked like a short covering rally, on Monday. My intentions were to get in once the shorts had been exhausted, and get ahead of the new wave of shorts that would enter the market. I was intending to exit my short positions, with an eye towards the gap open that was seen Sunday night (84.25ish). You are correct in your comment regarding buying the dips. That would have proven to be far more profitable for me. I needed to barf out of part of my short to manage risk, etc. I remain short, and did sell the recent failed attempt at the high (12:15 EST candle, roughly 85.69)...I will add to my position if this pair does roll over further. Best of luck, and Cheers!!!