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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #32,421
  • Dec 18, 2012 9:18pm Dec 18, 2012 9:18pm
end of discussion

target 91......
Never change your position without a good reason
  • #32,422
  • Dec 19, 2012 12:23am Dec 19, 2012 12:23am
Quoting wo1
end of discussion

target 91......

91 for the first quarter?
  • #32,423
  • Dec 19, 2012 12:44am Dec 19, 2012 12:44am
Gidday traders

What is happening

does keep climbing or what


still holding longs

one short,opps

we retrace be nice,

We are going to be pissed if they don't support this pair
  • #32,424
  • Dec 19, 2012 12:49am Dec 19, 2012 12:49am
Quoting eliteincome
Gidday traders

What is happening

does keep climbing or what


still holding longs

one short,opps

we retrace be nice,

We are going to be pissed if they don't support this pair
It wouldnt be the first time they have seen it at these levels and not supported it!
  • #32,425
  • Dec 19, 2012 2:41pm Dec 19, 2012 2:41pm
hi everyone .

joining this thread as i think higher volatility will remain.

Expecting USDJPY will be become THE pair to trade in coming years.

i had 4 great jpy trades this year and my style is swing trader - 11 trades in total. Other currency i like is AUD.
  • #32,426
  • Dec 19, 2012 2:45pm Dec 19, 2012 2:45pm
Sell 84.39
Target 80.74

Price very extreme now, due a pullback, weak daily candle, not much more upside in this now
  • #32,427
  • Dec 19, 2012 3:30pm Dec 19, 2012 3:30pm
Quoting andyvxr
Sell 84.39
Target 80.74

Price very extreme now, due a pullback, weak daily candle, not much more upside in this now
hey man! wait 2,5h for BoJ press release with this Short!
  • #32,428
  • Dec 19, 2012 4:02pm Dec 19, 2012 4:02pm
Don't worry its already built into the price


Quoting baczniew
hey man! wait 2,5h for BoJ press release with this Short!
  • #32,429
  • Dec 19, 2012 9:42pm Dec 19, 2012 9:42pm
No Shorts for me at this level. Possibility to reach minimum of 85.7X area prior to a major reversal.
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  • #32,430
  • Dec 19, 2012 10:33pm Dec 19, 2012 10:33pm
Hi everybody, i am new member. I short UJ 84.4 , do you think it go down under 84, today?
  • #32,431
  • Dec 19, 2012 11:33pm Dec 19, 2012 11:33pm
Quoting pmptrader
Hi everybody, i am new member. I short UJ 84.4 , do you think it go down under 84, today?
It seems yes
  • #32,432
  • Edited 5:28am Dec 20, 2012 1:43am | Edited 5:28am
Thank Kard reply me. my short TP at 83.95. I hope i can short again at 84.15 and TP at 83.7.
But i hope in the future i can trade long term.
  • #32,433
  • Dec 20, 2012 2:45am Dec 20, 2012 2:45am
probably a nice long- leg green hammer today.
Forex Trading is like Fitness: the Key is Patience.
  • #32,434
  • Edited 8:45am Dec 20, 2012 7:41am | Edited 8:45am
Quoting pmptrader
Thank Kard reply me. my short TP at 83.95. I hope i can short again at 84.15 and TP at 83.7.
But i hope in the future i can trade long term.
Be carefull, the current trend is still long.
Regarding the UJ.
In the book Reminiscences of a stock operator Livermore several times did the opposite trade before enter long or short to test the market. Nowadays a lot of times the news work as a test, like the price action today (a lot of long traders scared and closed positions) and the market "sucked" all packs of sellers. It is a strong long sign for me.
I hope it makes sense and sorry for my english.
  • #32,435
  • Dec 20, 2012 8:10am Dec 20, 2012 8:10am
Quoting Kard
Be carefull, the current trend is still long.
Regarding the UJ.
In the book Reminiscences of a stock operator Livermore several times did the opposite trade before enter long or short to test the market. Nowadays a lot of times the news work as a test, like the price action today (a lot of long traders scared and closed positions) and the market "sucked" all packs of sellers. It is a stong long sign for me.
I hope it makes sense and sorry for my english.
There was definitely a ton of profit taking, stop hunting & squaring of positions going on in the US session & Asian session. The move up mass been massive & was getting crowded. The big boys love to shake out weak hands before they continue the move & what better time than when volume is light & it doesn't require much capital to do it. I believe we are in a another consolidation pattern waiting for the fiscal cliff to be resolved before we see any significant moves in either direction. Based on Abe's comments last night he is going to live up to his word and ease aggressively only time will tell tho. Moving forward buying the dips & booking profits into strength should provide a very simple lucrative stratagy for 2013.
It works till it doesn't
  • #32,436
  • Dec 20, 2012 10:38am Dec 20, 2012 10:38am
Quoting DaEdge
There was definitely a ton of profit taking, stop hunting & squaring of positions going on in the US session & Asian session. The move up mass been massive & was getting crowded. The big boys love to shake out weak hands before they continue the move & what better time than when volume is light & it doesn't require much capital to do it. I believe we are in a another consolidation pattern waiting for the fiscal cliff to be resolved before we see any significant moves in either direction. Based on Abe's comments last night he is going to live up...
It looks like this pair has reached its all time low around 76 and now is on its way up. I recall last year there was a brief high around 84ish because BOJ intervened but then it fizzled away quickly. We have gone pass the previous high this week.

My trading plan is simple. I will deposit $10K with my broker, buy a full LOT of USD/JPY at current price or lower(exact entry point is not very important since I am not looking into day-trading the pair). I will leave it as is and not touch it until Christmas 2013 or later.

I know that if I were to leave 10K in the bank, it will generate at most $100 interest. With the above trade, I will very likely get a nice Xmas surprise next year or later (how nice the surprise is dependant on my patience).

Of course you can scale down the trade to mini lot if you want risk $1000 etc.

Treat it like a term deposit where you define the term and interest.


Good luck.
  • #32,437
  • Dec 20, 2012 10:45am Dec 20, 2012 10:45am
Quoting lsg168
It looks like this pair has reached its all time low around 76 and now is on its way up. I recall last year there was a brief high around 84ish because BOJ intervened but then it fizzled away quickly. We have gone pass the previous high this week.

My trading plan is simple. I will deposit $10K with my broker, buy a full LOT of USD/JPY at current price or lower(exact entry point is not very important since I am not looking into day-trading the pair). I will leave it as is and not touch it until Christmas 2013 or later.

I know that if...

You might be leaving a lot of money on the table that way remember nothing moves straight up or down. I think if you scaled in & out based on strength & weakness you would do much better. But then again if your just looking to beat the interest rates of a saving account I'm sure that's not going to be tough. I see your in Japan so your interest rates are similar to ours in the US & keeping money in a saving account is pointless from the point of view of making money.
It works till it doesn't
  • #32,438
  • Dec 20, 2012 12:48pm Dec 20, 2012 12:48pm
Quoting DaEdge
You might be leaving a lot of money on the table that way remember nothing moves straight up or down. I think if you scaled in & out based on strength & weakness you would do much better. But then again if your just looking to beat the interest rates of a saving account I'm sure that's not going to be tough. I see your in Japan so your interest rates are similar to ours in the US & keeping money in a saving account is pointless from the point of view of making money.
Well I am using interest as an example. If you have 10K account, what would you like your yearly return to be? Do you want to double your account or do you think 50% return is a good year?

Insead of making many trades and trying to get the "correct" entry point every time, I trade less and with a large margin of error. As long as I got the trend right, I will make a profit. Right now we both think USD/JPY is on an uptrend, but till which level is what we do not know. So instead of making many small guesses and trying to get them right all the time, I am make one big guess and let it ride.

At the beginning of this thread in 2006, USD/JPY is trading around 112. Say I use this as my target, then all I have to make sure is that my account size is large enough to with-stand the largest drawdown (for now I will use the multiyear low of 76). And of course if you make fewer trades, you pay less spread and can get the entry point wrong and still make a profit.

I have a live USD 1000 account. I have started my experiment a couple weeks ago. I started with one mini lot at 82.2. Of course I added an agressive component - add one unit (1 mini lot) every time the pair rises 200 pips. Last night I added mini lot at around 84.1, so now I own 2 mini lots at 83.15. The next steps are to add another unit at 86, at 88 etc etc until ...

I will update the results of my experiment here from time to time. I think as long as my guess of the trend is correct then I will have a profitable 2013 and beyond.
  • #32,439
  • Dec 20, 2012 1:14pm Dec 20, 2012 1:14pm
usdjpy can still go down as well. even all time low.
  • #32,440
  • Dec 20, 2012 1:44pm Dec 20, 2012 1:44pm
Quoting lsg168
Well I am using interest as an example. If you have 10K account, what would you like your yearly return to be? Do you want to double your account or do you think 50% return is a good year?

Insead of making many trades and trying to get the "correct" entry point every time, I trade less and with a large margin of error. As long as I got the trend right, I will make a profit. Right now we both think USD/JPY is on an uptrend, but till which level is what we do not know. So instead of making many small guesses and trying to get them right...
Whatever suits your personality best. I get my ideas from the weekly & monthly charts then I use the dailies to identify supply & demand levels for my entries. I don't day trade & I do add in & book profit along the way not in fixed intervals I do it based on strength & weakness against the daily close & I use the PA as a guide for strength of the trend.
It works till it doesn't
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