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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #63,881
  • Dec 20, 2012 6:58am Dec 20, 2012 6:58am
Quoting PipTrapper
Sentiment seems to be waning now, but EUR/USD still needs to break back below 1.3250 before I stand down from yellow alert status.
It's that old classic move... never fails. When the market runs out of buyers, the current longs only wait a while before stealing from the complacent ones. Profit taking and stop running ensues. Let's see how far down this gets us.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,882
  • Dec 20, 2012 6:58am Dec 20, 2012 6:58am
Quoting PipTrapper
Sentiment seems to be waning now, but EUR/USD still needs to break back below 1.3250 before I stand down from yellow alert status.
broken, loaded with Shorts.
  • #63,883
  • Dec 20, 2012 7:01am Dec 20, 2012 7:01am
Quoting chodd22
Of course bro, why do you think I'm on your thread...? Surround myself with smarter people...someday that might rub off!

Well you've earned yourself a voucher... Not because you just flattered me, but because you're applying all the trader survivalist techniques.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,884
  • Dec 20, 2012 7:01am Dec 20, 2012 7:01am
Quoting rekon67
broken, loaded with Shorts.
Careful 3250 was only the first hurdle. Lots more to come yet.

Next hurdle is 3233
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,885
  • Dec 20, 2012 7:03am Dec 20, 2012 7:03am
Quoting PipTrapper
It's that old classic move... never fails. When the market runs out of buyers, the current longs only wait a while before stealing from the complacent ones. Profit taking and stop running ensues. Let's see how far down this gets us.
agrd. looks like a retest of 3230/35
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #63,886
  • Dec 20, 2012 7:06am Dec 20, 2012 7:06am
Quoting PipTrapper
Careful 3250 was only the first hurdle. Lots more to come yet.

Next hurdle is 3233
By the way... If we break below yesterday's low at 1.3187, then we have a semi-confirmed H/S pattern with a potential measured target of 1.3065 area
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,887
  • Dec 20, 2012 7:06am Dec 20, 2012 7:06am
Quoting PipTrapper
Careful 3250 was only the first hurdle. Lots more to come yet.

Next hurdle is 3233
Sorry I missed couple of days reading.
  • #63,888
  • Dec 20, 2012 7:08am Dec 20, 2012 7:08am
We now have a Tweezer candlestick reversal pattern on H1. Next candle needs a close below 1.3243 to confirm.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,889
  • Dec 20, 2012 7:09am Dec 20, 2012 7:09am
If the senate Veto of 'Plan B' goes as its predicted, it will break and confirm your HS...thats the news play of the day kids.

Be ready for it either side...it should move the EU
  • #63,890
  • Dec 20, 2012 7:10am Dec 20, 2012 7:10am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes it did crash through the uptrend line but today it moved back above it, so that invalidates it. We're still in an uptrend until we clear that trend line again and as I said yesterday, the bull/bear line in the sand is 1.3120

If you draw the trendline correctly then it really didn't...It actually retested it...for now. IMO, trendlines are best drawn by connecting most touching points where shadows are of secondary importance. Plus, it's even better when trendlines touch the base of the breakout candles. See attach.

Regardless, we are still in an uptrend determined by higher peaks and valleys. And the first real valley is at around 1.3150.

PS. i would like to emphasize that trendLINES actually do NOT determine the trend but swing highs and lows. So, just because it "broke" the trendline doesn't mean it's not in an uptrend. Which it is...all the way to 1.315
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU trendline.png Size: 28 KB
  • #63,891
  • Dec 20, 2012 7:11am Dec 20, 2012 7:11am
Quoting rekon67
Sorry I missed couple of days reading.
No worries. You'll catch up fast.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,892
  • Dec 20, 2012 7:12am Dec 20, 2012 7:12am
Appears we have a duplication move the same as yesterdays...up....DOWN! Range is just tighter..
Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
  • #63,893
  • Dec 20, 2012 7:14am Dec 20, 2012 7:14am
Quoting chodd22
If the senate Veto of 'Plan B' goes as its predicted, it will break and confirm your HS...thats the news play of the day kids.

Be ready for it either side...it should move the EU
There's more news than that today.
Starting in a little over 15 minutes.

Underlined ones are very important.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Forex Factory.jpeg Size: 25 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,894
  • Dec 20, 2012 7:16am Dec 20, 2012 7:16am
Quoting ohenry
Appears we have a duplication move the same as yesterdays...up....DOWN! Range is just tighter..
You own the award for best signature motto!!! Awesome!

Veni, Vedi, Vici
  • #63,895
  • Dec 20, 2012 7:18am Dec 20, 2012 7:18am
Quoting lumesh
If you draw the trendline correctly then it really didn't...It actually retested it...for now. IMO, trendlines are best drawn by connecting most touching points where shadows are of secondary importance. Plus, it's even better when trendlines touch the base of the breakout candles. See attach.

Regardless, we are still in an uptrend determined by higher peaks and valleys. And the first real valley is at around 1.3150.

PS. i would like to emphasize that trendLINES actually do NOT determine the trend but swing highs and lows. So, just because...
Agree, agree and agree, but everyone has their own way of drawing trend lines. If one uses the shadows as primary importance, then there is no doubt if it breaks and fails to re-enter. If you eliminate the shadows and attach to the bodies, you'll be less sure of a break.

Anyway, yes you are absolutely correct. It is the lower highs and lows that determine a bear trend and not the break of an up trend line.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,896
  • Dec 20, 2012 7:19am Dec 20, 2012 7:19am
Quoting ohenry
Appears we have a duplication move the same as yesterdays...up....DOWN! Range is just tighter..
Yep. You got that right.

http://netanimations.net/animated-pu...-with-yoyo.gif
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,897
  • Dec 20, 2012 7:21am Dec 20, 2012 7:21am
Quoting PipTrapper
There's more news than that today.
Starting in a little over 15 minutes.

Underlined ones are very important.
Agreed! Just seems all the good USD economic news hasn't turned the bull Eur wave.

So does that mean if US employment #'s are below expect significantly, Eur might bounce more than normal?
  • #63,898
  • Dec 20, 2012 7:22am Dec 20, 2012 7:22am
Quoting Halifax
I hope no one is caught against the trend here

Looks like after we pop 3284 there is room to retrace down about 100 pips before a continuation of the uptrend. However given the squeeze that is on, I won't count on it. If it happens I'll be loading a long there anyhow.
So 3284 was the may swing high that we just popped (cleared resistance) with strong buying. There's probably room for another downwards move for longs to reload, as I don't feel like the last one was quite deep enough, but then again I'm only expecting 10 pips lower to 3180 or so.

I'm not seeing the bear case, but good luck to traders both ways
"Don't Panic..."
  • #63,899
  • Dec 20, 2012 7:23am Dec 20, 2012 7:23am
Quoting PipTrapper
By the way... If we break below yesterday's low at 1.3187, then we have a semi-confirmed H/S pattern with a potential measured target of 1.3065 area
Actually this is the NEWS now to get some steam into it...
There're few on its way this afternoon.
The market definitely wants to go down to take a fresh breath, but let's see Unemployment first...
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #63,900
  • Dec 20, 2012 7:26am Dec 20, 2012 7:26am
Quoting chodd22
You own the award for best signature motto!!! Awesome!

Veni, Vedi, Vici
in my experience its the truth
Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
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