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  • #735,321
  • Dec 18, 2012 7:49pm Dec 18, 2012 7:49pm
Quoting Fxbay
Hi Guys, Mr Jim Roger live with his family in Singapore!!
How is that relevant?
Not all sins are created equal
  • #735,322
  • Dec 18, 2012 7:51pm Dec 18, 2012 7:51pm
Quoting John Gray
Hardest thing to do is accept a loss, hopefully some of it is recovered.

Seriously, the most important advice I can give is, don't get stuck at the top.

hedge it before you get margin called on the bottom.

Top is soon, market bullish until Fiscal Cliff market anticipations begin.

Question: Even if a deal is sorted, won't the USD still be bullish from the sell-off on equities? i.e. Bearish EURUSD?
hegde is a mess you never know how to get out of it infact it puts even in big trouble
  • #735,323
  • Dec 18, 2012 8:12pm Dec 18, 2012 8:12pm
Quoting 5percent
just as the bull are rallying this 2 week especially on eur/usd and gbp/usd. The bear may just come in suddenly to catch most people off guard, best is they are without stop loss, so their account can tank the way down or another scenario of catching btm, like catching top now.

when majority are shouting 1.34/1.35, then they may erase most gains in a short while favorably within hours, that's what bear is famous for. cross pairs like eur/aud, gbp/aud, eur/nzd etc may also fall rapidly too, once there's a sign of a real bear. Now PA...

The majority are not shouting 1.34/1.35..
the majority are running scare now.. most are in denial & hope.. hoping when this bull is gonna end so they can get out & salvage their accounts..
Your present mindset is no different from all those who had been anticipating tops & shorting all the way from 1.27..

Sorry mate.. like it or not.. that's the truth.. the mindset of the majority that feeds the system & make the world go around..

"Anticipation is the mother of all FX Evil..
He who keep anticipating bottoms, gets piece on Earth..
He who keep anticipating tops, gets peace in Heaven.." Fx_ConfusCius..
  • #735,324
  • Dec 18, 2012 8:13pm Dec 18, 2012 8:13pm
everyone who is panicking now and getting their heads taken off .....just be aware that

since January 1st of this year to now....... it has only been a 2.14% YTD log return gain.

last year brought a down trend ......1.30 seems to be where price has been oscillating for a year and has overshot both ways down to 1.20 and now is little above 1.32.

the open price of the month was about 1.2960 so it is about one standard deviation from the open of the month......if no money was made or money was lost this month for whatever reason. Think of your strategy for next month.......everything else being equal with the same amount of capital inflows into the market, via linear extrapolation technique and GARCH 1,1 volatility forecast, you can realistically expect price between 1.3275-1.3500

HOWEVER...........if what you are seeing or your views of the market are bearish, doing a linear regression with inverse angle and slope then 1.31670-1.2910 would be realistic expectations.

now settle down and calm your nerves.....price does not travel in a straight line, and without fundamental supporting drivers I dare claim that trends don't take off like a rocket. So ask yourself what is more realistic and why? what are your expectations? and what is YOUR PLAN?

don't be so reactionary.....markets are more efficient than you think.....money is made in the anticipation of the next move, in anticipation of the correct pricing.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #735,325
  • Dec 18, 2012 8:16pm Dec 18, 2012 8:16pm
Quoting Jay Walker
Yes, yes you are.

But look at the numbers.

$11,000 lost. Gone.

You put back $100.

To get back to even, you would need to grow your account by 10,900%. Not dollars, percent! Without accounting for spreads, you would need to grow your account by 10% per trade for 50 consecutive successful trades.

Between 1973 and 1983, The Quantum Fund was directed by Jim Rogers and George Soros which gained 4200% in 10 years. You'd have to do phenomenally better than that. To the point that you should actually keep records of this because if you do grow...
agree with the gist of the above.

however, a retail punter growing from $100 to $11K is not the same as Quantum Fund returns. Big funds operate under completely different set of constraints due to size.

question to my mind is not if the trader can make $11K....it is more of having made $11k can he keep it....most likely will return all and more

the real risk is habits....bad habits being picked up for life

but any way they have made a decision ignoring all good advice so we need to move on
  • #735,326
  • Dec 18, 2012 8:19pm Dec 18, 2012 8:19pm
Quoting johncen
well done...
I love ur post!
that is what we should always put in mind especially in situation like this..
end of the year..bear seems dead...
nope bear is not dead, yesterday bull enter 1st bear stomping ground, today he entering another, 3250ish was may sell off last year, big mf bear smackdown. down to 2336 in 4 weeks 899 pips, june was bull 301pip july bear 633pip next 5 months until now has been bull grind back to origin of may breakout, effectively took bear 2 months to cover 1532 and bull 6 months to recover

so although bull get through bears 1st big fence, they now entering 2nd zone 3250 - 3285 above here next fence 3378
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #735,327
  • Dec 18, 2012 8:19pm Dec 18, 2012 8:19pm
Quoting forex_fairy
Guys will it hit 1.33?

Why does it keep rising?
bubble. it will have to retrace 50 pips sooner or later...
tired of waiting...
  • #735,328
  • Dec 18, 2012 8:25pm Dec 18, 2012 8:25pm
Quoting samirs
however, a retail punter growing from $100 to $11K is not the same as Quantum Fund returns. Big funds operate under completely different set of constraints due to size.

question to my mind is not if the trader can make $11K....it is more of having made $11k can he keep it....most likely will return all and more
Just looking at it from a percentage perspective. He would have to do better than what the Quantum fund did in 10 years to get back to break even. I believe it's fair to say that if he ever accomplished that, he would have gotten rid of his bad habits and acquired good ones.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #735,329
  • Dec 18, 2012 8:27pm Dec 18, 2012 8:27pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
yup, bear strike when least expect it, check any pr, anytimeframe and can see who is violentest fighters (except interventions, banks and blabbermouth politicians)
i am fan of bull but i accept bear is most ruthless , after all bull is a vegetarian animal , don't like blood
Mohan
  • #735,330
  • Dec 18, 2012 8:30pm Dec 18, 2012 8:30pm
Quoting Mahfooz
hegde is a mess you never know how to get out of it infact it puts even in big trouble
i do hedge but i don't unwind them unless both in profit , most of the time i book them end of the day using close by option
Mohan
  • #735,331
  • Dec 18, 2012 8:32pm Dec 18, 2012 8:32pm
Quoting Jay Walker
Just looking at it from a percentage perspective. He would have to do better than what the Quantum fund did in 10 years to get back to break even. I believe it's fair to say that if he ever accomplished that, he would have gotten rid of his bad habits and acquired good ones.
not necessarily....there are many many examples where people have turned there miniscule initial stake to 10K or 100K ...but there is a risk of ruin and statistically deviations....and hence, in the end 99% end up giving more than they made back to the market.....also thats one of the main reason why hope never dies and traders become gamblers
  • #735,332
  • Dec 18, 2012 8:39pm Dec 18, 2012 8:39pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
nope bear is not dead, yesterday bull enter 1st bear stomping ground, today he entering another, 3250ish was may sell off last year, big mf bear smackdown. down to 2336 in 4 weeks 899 pips, june was bull 301pip july bear 633pip next 5 months until now has been bull grind back to origin of may breakout, effectively took bear 2 months to cover 1532 and bull 6 months to recover

so although bull get through bears 1st big fence, they now entering 2nd zone 3250 - 3285 above here next fence 3378
bro I believe bear just taking nap...since its winter in northern hemisphere...
all we have to do is wait for signals...
the revenge of bear can happen any minute... like what mohan just said....bear like blood....they not vegetarian...
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #735,333
  • Dec 18, 2012 8:43pm Dec 18, 2012 8:43pm
Quoting johncen
bro I believe bear just taking nap...since its winter in northern hemisphere...
all we have to do is wait for signals...
the revenge of bear can happen any minute... like what mohan just said....bear like blood....they not vegetarian...
I can smell blood everywhere...could have been my account going to be slaughtered soon...looooool
  • #735,334
  • Dec 18, 2012 8:43pm Dec 18, 2012 8:43pm
Quoting samirs
not necessarily....there are many many examples where people have turned there miniscule initial stake to 10K or 100K
I have yet to find one that can back that claim with an audited statement from an independent chartered accountant. They cannot be numerous.

Quoting samirs
...but there is a risk of ruin and statistically deviations....and hence, in the end 99% end up giving more than they made back to the market.....
Precisely.

Quoting samirs
also thats one of the main reason why hope never dies and traders become gamblers
It's a fine line between trading and gambling. The different is when the risk is no longer a calculated one.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #735,335
  • Dec 18, 2012 8:44pm Dec 18, 2012 8:44pm
Quoting johncen
bro I believe bear just taking nap...since its winter in northern hemisphere...
all we have to do is wait for signals...
the revenge of bear can happen any minute... like what mohan just said....bear like blood....they not vegetarian...
That thing is nowhere to be seen right now.

Who the hell sees bearish signals at the moment? Seriously?
Not all sins are created equal
  • #735,336
  • Dec 18, 2012 8:45pm Dec 18, 2012 8:45pm
Bull not in comfortable position at this time. It's going to loose its dancing technique.
EDIT: every position needs to over buy with great force
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #735,337
  • Dec 18, 2012 8:47pm Dec 18, 2012 8:47pm
Quoting Jay Walker
I have yet to find one that can back that claim with an audited statement from an independent chartered accountant. They cannot be numerous.
I know many.....most of them never became consistent so in the end became nearly destitute

a couple of them realised the problem and became successful a.k.a. consistent winner......

hence, i wont be overly surprised if the trader in question makes $1k or even $10k....i would be truly surprised if having made that money he is able to keep it
  • #735,338
  • Dec 18, 2012 8:49pm Dec 18, 2012 8:49pm
EURUSD took too much drugs... its gonna be painful when the guys wake up
  • #735,339
  • Dec 18, 2012 8:50pm Dec 18, 2012 8:50pm
Quoting johncen
bro I believe bear just taking nap...since its winter in northern hemisphere...
all we have to do is wait for signals...
the revenge of bear can happen any minute... like what mohan just said....bear like blood....they not vegetarian...
nope, bear is gentle giants, with very fine tuned tastes, like honey, berries, salmon, ,,,,, ,,,,,,,,, and bull testicles

yes he is very ferocius fighter, and one of the quicker animals about, he fights with big sharp teeth, claws, head butts, and python hugs,

bull fight with horns stuck on top his thick skull, they are made of stuff like our fingernails , so in reality they just salad munching girlie scratchers, like my sisters
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #735,340
  • Dec 18, 2012 8:51pm Dec 18, 2012 8:51pm
Quoting divak
EURUSD took too much drugs... its gonna be painful when the guys wake up
I've been drunk enough times to know the best hangover cure is to keep drinking.
Not all sins are created equal
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